A risk prediction algorithm based on family history and common genetic variants: application to prostate cancer with potential clinical impact.

Genome wide association studies have identified several single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that are independently associated with small increments in risk of prostate cancer, opening up the possibility for using such variants in risk prediction. Using segregation analysis of population-based samples of 4,390 families of prostate cancer patients from the UK and Australia, and assuming all familial aggregation has genetic causes, we previously found that the best model for the genetic susceptibility to prostate cancer was a mixed model of inheritance that included both a recessive major gene component and a polygenic component (P) that represents the effect of a large number of genetic variants each of small effect, where . Based on published studies of 26 SNPs that are currently known to be associated with prostate cancer, we have extended our model to incorporate these SNPs by decomposing the polygenic component into two parts: a polygenic component due to the known susceptibility SNPs, , and the residual polygenic component due to the postulated but as yet unknown genetic variants, . The resulting algorithm can be used for predicting the probability of developing prostate cancer in the future based on both SNP profiles and explicit family history information. This approach can be applied to other diseases for which population-based family data and established risk variants exist

Global patient outcomes after elective surgery: prospective cohort study in 27 low-, middle- and high-income countries.

BACKGROUND: As global initiatives increase patient access to surgical treatments, there remains a need to understand the adverse effects of surgery and define appropriate levels of perioperative care. METHODS: We designed a prospective international 7-day cohort study of outcomes following elective adult inpatient surgery in 27 countries. The primary outcome was in-hospital complications. Secondary outcomes were death following a complication (failure to rescue) and death in hospital. Process measures were admission to critical care immediately after surgery or to treat a complication and duration of hospital stay. A single definition of critical care was used for all countries. RESULTS: A total of 474 hospitals in 19 high-, 7 middle- and 1 low-income country were included in the primary analysis. Data included 44 814 patients with a median hospital stay of 4 (range 2-7) days. A total of 7508 patients (16.8%) developed one or more postoperative complication and 207 died (0.5%). The overall mortality among patients who developed complications was 2.8%. Mortality following complications ranged from 2.4% for pulmonary embolism to 43.9% for cardiac arrest. A total of 4360 (9.7%) patients were admitted to a critical care unit as routine immediately after surgery, of whom 2198 (50.4%) developed a complication, with 105 (2.4%) deaths. A total of 1233 patients (16.4%) were admitted to a critical care unit to treat complications, with 119 (9.7%) deaths. Despite lower baseline risk, outcomes were similar in low- and middle-income compared with high-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: Poor patient outcomes are common after inpatient surgery. Global initiatives to increase access to surgical treatments should also address the need for safe perioperative care. STUDY REGISTRATION: ISRCTN5181700

Prostate cancer segregation analyses using 4390 families from UK and Australian population-based studies.

Familial aggregation of prostate cancer is likely to be due to multiple susceptibility loci, perhaps acting in conjunction with shared lifestyle risk factors. Models that assume a single mode of inheritance may be unrealistic. We analyzed genetic models of susceptibility to prostate cancer using segregation analysis of occurrence in families ascertained through population-based series totaling 4390 incident cases. We investigated major gene models (dominant, recessive, general, X-linked), polygenic models, and mixed models of susceptibility using the pedigree analysis software MENDEL. The hypergeometric model was used to approximate polygenic inheritance. The best-fitting model for the familial aggregation of prostate cancer was the mixed recessive model. The frequency of the susceptibility allele in the population was estimated to be 0.15 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.11-0.20), with a relative risk for homozygote carriers of 94 (95% CI 46-192), and a polygenic standard deviation of 2.01 (95% CI 1.72-2.34). These analyses suggest that one or more genes having a strong recessively inherited effect on risk, as well as a number of genes with variants having small multiplicative effects on risk, may account for the genetic susceptibility to prostate cancer. The recessive component would predict the observed higher familial risk for siblings of cases than for fathers, but this could also be due to other factors such as shared lifestyle by siblings, targeted screening effects, and/or non-additive effects of one or more genes

Identification of new genetic risk factors for prostate cancer.

There is evidence that a substantial part of genetic predisposition to prostate cancer (PCa) may be due to lower penetrance genes which are found by genome-wide association studies. We have recently conducted such a study and seven new regions of the genome linked to PCa risk have been identified. Three of these loci contain candidate susceptibility genes: MSMB, LMTK2 and KLK2/3. The MSMB and KLK2/3 genes may be useful for PCa screening, and the LMTK2 gene might provide a potential therapeutic target. Together with results from other groups, there are now 23 germline genetic variants which have been reported. These results have the potential to be developed into a genetic test. However, we consider that marketing of tests to the public is premature, as PCa risk can not be evaluated fully at this stage and the appropriate screening protocols need to be developed. Follow-up validation studies, as well as studies to explore the psychological implications of genetic profile testing, will be vital prior to roll out into healthcare

Kuluttajabarometri maakunnittain 2000, 2. neljännes

Suomen virallinen tilasto (SVT

Use of failure-to-rescue to identify international variation in postoperative care in low-, middle- and high-income countries: a 7-day cohort study of elective surgery

This was an investigator-initiated study funded by Nestle Health Sciences through an unrestricted research grant and by a National Institute for Health Research (UK) Professorship held by R.P. The study was sponsored by Queen Mary University of London

Prospective observational cohort study on grading the severity of postoperative complications in global surgery research

Background The Clavien–Dindo classification is perhaps the most widely used approach for reporting postoperative complications in clinical trials. This system classifies complication severity by the treatment provided. However, it is unclear whether the Clavien–Dindo system can be used internationally in studies across differing healthcare systems in high- (HICs) and low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Methods This was a secondary analysis of the International Surgical Outcomes Study (ISOS), a prospective observational cohort study of elective surgery in adults. Data collection occurred over a 7-day period. Severity of complications was graded using Clavien–Dindo and the simpler ISOS grading (mild, moderate or severe, based on guided investigator judgement). Severity grading was compared using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC). Data are presented as frequencies and ICC values (with 95 per cent c.i.). The analysis was stratified by income status of the country, comparing HICs with LMICs. Results A total of 44 814 patients were recruited from 474 hospitals in 27 countries (19 HICs and 8 LMICs). Some 7508 patients (16·8 per cent) experienced at least one postoperative complication, equivalent to 11 664 complications in total. Using the ISOS classification, 5504 of 11 664 complications (47·2 per cent) were graded as mild, 4244 (36·4 per cent) as moderate and 1916 (16·4 per cent) as severe. Using Clavien–Dindo, 6781 of 11 664 complications (58·1 per cent) were graded as I or II, 1740 (14·9 per cent) as III, 2408 (20·6 per cent) as IV and 735 (6·3 per cent) as V. Agreement between classification systems was poor overall (ICC 0·41, 95 per cent c.i. 0·20 to 0·55), and in LMICs (ICC 0·23, 0·05 to 0·38) and HICs (ICC 0·46, 0·25 to 0·59). Conclusion Caution is recommended when using a treatment approach to grade complications in global surgery studies, as this may introduce bias unintentionally