The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Pakistan

The paper empirically identifies the determinants of growth in foreign direct investment (FDI) in Pakistan over the period 1961–2003. Our main interest is to study how different variables or indicators reflecting the trade, fiscal, and financial sector liberalisation attract FDI in Pakistan. The study uses the cointegration and error-correction techniques to identify the variables in explaining the FDI in Pakistan. The study considers the tariff rate, exchange rate, tax rate, credit to private sector, and index of general share price variables to see if they may explain the inflow of foreign direct investment. Also included are wages and per capita GDP to test for the relative demand for labour and market size hypotheses. All variables indicate correct signs and are statistically significant except for wage rate and share price index. The study clearly emphasises the role of these policy variables in attracting FDI and determining its growth in both short- and long-run in Pakistan, and also indicates a positive and significant impact of reforms on FDI in Pakistan.Foreign Investment, Pakistan

The Twin Deficits Phenomenon: Evidence from Pakistan

Like most developing countries a steady budget deficit in Pakistan is the primary cause of all major ills of the economy. It has varied between 5.4 to 8.7 percent during last two decades. On the other hand the current account deficit varied between 2.7 to 7.2 percent during the same period. The variations in fiscal policy can lead to predictable developments in an open economy’s performance on current account, remains a controversial issue. An important aspect of this issue concerns what is termed as twin deficit analysis, according to which fiscal deficits and current account balances are very closely related so that reductions in the former are both necessary and sufficient to obtain improved performance in the later. Theoretical work on the relationship that exist between variations in fiscal policy and the current account balance has been based upon two types of models. These models are constructed from postulated behavioural relationships that purport to describe how the economy works in aggregate without explaining the behaviour of agents who make up the economy.

The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Pakistan

The significance of foreign direct investment (FDI) flows is well documented in literature for both the developing and developed countries. Over the last decade foreign direct investment have grown at least twice as rapidly as trade Meyer, (2003). As there is shortage of capital in the developing countries, which need capital for their development process, the marginal productivity of capital is higher in these countries. On the other hand investors in the developed world seek high returns for their capital. Hence there is a mutual benefit in the international movement of capital

The Twin Deficits Phenomenon: Evidence from Pakistan

Like most developing countries a steady budget deficit in Pakistan is the primary cause of all major ills of the economy. It has varied between 5.4 to 8.7 percent during last two decades. On the other hand the current account deficit varied between 2.7 to 7.2 percent during the same period. The variations in fiscal policy can lead to predictable developments in an open economy’s performance on current account, remains a controversial issue. An important aspect of this issue concerns what is termed as twin deficit analysis, according to which fiscal deficits and current account balances are very closely related so that reductions in the former are both necessary and sufficient to obtain improved performance in the later. Theoretical work on the relationship that exist between variations in fiscal policy and the current account balance has been based upon two types of models. These models are constructed from postulated behavioural relationships that purport to describe how the economy works in aggregate without explaining the behaviour of agents who make up the economy [Mundel (1963); Branson (1976); Dornbusch (1976); Kawai (1985) and Marston (1985)]. The second type of model, derives the important macroeconomic relationships from the microfoundations of individual optimising behaviour [Dixit (1978); Neary (1980); Obstfeld (1981); Persson (1982); Kimbrough (1985); Frenkel and Razin (1986); Cuddington and Vinals (1985, 1986a) and Moore (1989)]. However, both of these approaches have yielded divergent results

Foreign direct investment, trade and migration in a developing country--Pakistan

This dissertation explores the relationship and the determinants of FDI, trade and migration in three empirical studies. The first study estimate the Knowledge Capital model (KK) to explore the determinants and types of FDI in a small developing country, Pakistan. The results indicate that the model fits the data at aggregate and manufacturing sector reasonably well as signs on most of the explanatory variables related to the vertical and horizontal FDI are in line with the predictions of the model. However, there is strong evidence of vertical FDI as the endowment difference variable is positive and significant in most of the specifications suggesting that large countries invest to have factor cost advantage in Pakistan. We also modify the model by using dummy variables for the reform and period of instability. The results provide evidence that liberalization of trade and investment has positive effects on the inflows of both types of FDI and that political and economic instabilities negatively affect FDI inflows. The second essay explores the role of Pakistani migrants in facilitating FDI inflows by reducing informal barriers of trade and investment. In an augmented gravity model based on the new trade theory of the multinational we find significant positive impacts of migrants on FDI inflows in Pakistan both at the aggregate and sectoral levels. We also find that Pakistani immigrants in distant countries are more effective in reducing transaction costs. Among the Commonwealth countries, Pakistani immigrants in the UK have a significant positive impact on FDI inflows in Pakistan. Finally, this study finds that immigrants are effective in promoting FDI from both developed and developing countries, the effects being larger for immigrants in the former. In the third study we estimate the determinants of migration from Pakistan. The unique feature of this research is that we study migration in both OECD and non-OECD countries which is particularly relevant in the case of Pakistan as large number of migrants go to the Middle East countries. Using a modified gravity model, we explain the emigration rate from Pakistan by the income, population density, dependency rate and tertiary rate of education in the host countries. The findings of this study suggest that income in the host country is an important determinant of migration from Pakistan and that high population density and an increase in the rate of tertiary education in the host country discourage migration. The main objective of this study is to look at the impact of previous migrant stock on potential emigration rate from Pakistan. The positive and significant coefficients on lagged migration stock for both OECD and the Middle East countries support the view of the network theory that family and friends who have migrated previously help in migration of potential migrants by providing information and reducing logistics and other costs of migration

Foreign direct investment, trade and migration in a developing country--Pakistan

This dissertation explores the relationship and the determinants of FDI, trade and migration in three empirical studies. The first study estimate the Knowledge Capital model (KK) to explore the determinants and types of FDI in a small developing country, Pakistan. The results indicate that the model fits the data at aggregate and manufacturing sector reasonably well as signs on most of the explanatory variables related to the vertical and horizontal FDI are in line with the predictions of the model. However, there is strong evidence of vertical FDI as the endowment difference variable is positive and significant in most of the specifications suggesting that large countries invest to have factor cost advantage in Pakistan. We also modify the model by using dummy variables for the reform and period of instability. The results provide evidence that liberalization of trade and investment has positive effects on the inflows of both types of FDI and that political and economic instabilities negatively affect FDI inflows. The second essay explores the role of Pakistani migrants in facilitating FDI inflows by reducing informal barriers of trade and investment. In an augmented gravity model based on the new trade theory of the multinational we find significant positive impacts of migrants on FDI inflows in Pakistan both at the aggregate and sectoral levels. We also find that Pakistani immigrants in distant countries are more effective in reducing transaction costs. Among the Commonwealth countries, Pakistani immigrants in the UK have a significant positive impact on FDI inflows in Pakistan. Finally, this study finds that immigrants are effective in promoting FDI from both developed and developing countries, the effects being larger for immigrants in the former. In the third study we estimate the determinants of migration from Pakistan. The unique feature of this research is that we study migration in both OECD and non-OECD countries which is particularly relevant in the case of Pakistan as large number of migrants go to the Middle East countries. Using a modified gravity model, we explain the emigration rate from Pakistan by the income, population density, dependency rate and tertiary rate of education in the host countries. The findings of this study suggest that income in the host country is an important determinant of migration from Pakistan and that high population density and an increase in the rate of tertiary education in the host country discourage migration. The main objective of this study is to look at the impact of previous migrant stock on potential emigration rate from Pakistan. The positive and significant coefficients on lagged migration stock for both OECD and the Middle East countries support the view of the network theory that family and friends who have migrated previously help in migration of potential migrants by providing information and reducing logistics and other costs of migration

Augmented cytotoxic, mutagenic and genotoxic response triggered by carvedilol and celecoxib combinations

It is understood that drugs regardless of their order of administration can exhibit drug interactions. Established on the fact that treatment of hypertension may last for decades and prolong usage of multiple drug regimen may induce substantial pathophysiological changes. Hence, This study was designed to evaluate the possible synergistic toxic effects of anti-hypertensive (carvedilol), and anti-inflammatory drug (celecoxib) alone and in combinations. Well-established MTT assay, Single Cell Gel Electrophoresis (SCGE) and Ames assay were employed to evaluate the toxicity at cellular level. Results from MTT assay on Vero cell line revealed that drug combinations have more pronounced anti-proliferative activity with combine IC50 value of 13.7:47.8 µg/mL. Likewise, exposure of peripheral blood mononuclear cells with drug combinations revealed significant (

Foliar application of liquiritin protects Chinese flowering cabbage against cucumber mosaic virus and increases health-promoting compounds

Decades of research have revealed notable similarities between the immune systems of the plant and animal kingdoms. Liquiritin has long been used to stimulate the body immunity in animals against an array of diseases. Considering the homology of some induced immune responses between animals and plants, we examined the effects of exogenously applied liquiritin to stimulate defense responses in Chinese flowering cabbage plants against cucumber mosaic virus (CMV) infection under greenhouse and field conditions. Foliar application of liquiritin (200 ppm) effectively suppressed the development of CMV symptoms by not less than 40% compared with the control in cabbage plants in both greenhouse and field trials along with the significant increases in the marketable yield and nutritional quality of cabbage. Liquiritin application enhanced the production of phenolic compounds and different defense-related enzymes in treated plants. Moreover, quantitative real-time PCR analysis revealed that liquiritin significantly up-regulated the expression of different defense-related genes upon pathogen inoculation, indicating an induction of the salicylic acid-mediated defense system. Collectively, the findings of this study indicate that liquiritin can effectively control CMV in cabbage plants.This study was supported by funding from the Science and Technology Foundation of Guangdong Province (Project No: 2020B0202090002); Guangdong Agriculture Department of China (2020KJ122) and Science and Technology Foundation of China (Project No: QN2020013006).Peer reviewe

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. METHODS: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. FINDINGS: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. INTERPRETATION: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation