10 research outputs found
Endoscopic decompression as management of uncomplicated sigmoid volvulus: case report and literature review
- Author
- Publication venue
- Medip Academy
- Publication date
- 28/02/2024
- Field of study
Sigmoid volvulus is a cause of intestinal obstruction explained by the twist of the sigmoid over its mesentery. The colon is at risk of ischaemia due to alterations in the irrigation due to rotation of the mesentery and risk of perforation. Surgical management is suggested in complicated cases, but endoscopic management with decompression and detorsion may be suggested in the case of uncomplicated sigmoid volvulus, with risk of recurrence. We present the case of a 49-year-old male with a diagnosis of uncomplicated sigmoid volvulus resolved by decompression with rigid proctosigmoidoscopy and medical management with remission of intestinal occlusion, without surgical intervention. A case and review of the current literature are presented
The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
- Author
- Aali Amirali
- Abbas Qamar
- Abbasi Behzad
- Abbasi-Kangevari Mohsen
- Abbasi-Kangevari Zeinab
- Abbastabar Hedayat
- Abd-Elsalam Sherief
- Abdelmasseh Michael
- Abdelwahab Ahmed Abdelwahab
- Abdoli Gholamreza
- Abdulkader Rizwan Suliankatchi
- Abdulkadir Hanan Abdulkadir
- Abedi Aidin
- Abegaz Kedir Hussein
- Abidi Hassan
- Aboagye Richard Gyan
- Abolhassani Hassan
- Absalan Abdorrahim
- Abtew Yonas Derso
- Abu-Gharbieh Eman
- Achappa Basavaprabhu
- Acheson Alistair R
- Acuna Juan Manuel
- Addison Daniel
- Addo Isaac Yeboah
- Adegboye Oyelola A
- Adesina Miracle Ayomikun
- Adnan Mohammad
- Adnani Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah
- Advani Shailesh M
- Afrin Sumia
- Afzal Muhammad Sohail
- Aggarwal Manik
- Ahinkorah Bright Opoku
- Ahmad Araz Ramazan
- Ahmad Rizwan
- Ahmad Sajjad
- Ahmad Sohail
- Ahmadi Sepideh
- Ahmed Haroon
- Ahmed Luai A
- Ahmed Muktar Beshir
- Aiman Wajeeha
- Ajami Marjan
- Akalu Gizachew Taddesse
- Akbarzadeh-Khiavi Mostafa
- Aklilu Addis
- Akonde Maxwell
- Akunna Chisom Joyqueenet
- Al-Hanawi Mohammed Khaled
- Al-Maweri Sadeq Ali Ali
- Al-Raddadi Rajaa M
- Al-Rifai Rami H Hani
- Al-Sabah Salman Khalifah
- Al-Tammemi Ala'a B
- Alahdab Fares
- Alanezi Fahad Mashhour
- Alanzi Turki M
- Alessy Saleh Ali
- Algammal Abdelazeem M
- Alhassan Robert Kaba
- Ali Adel Hajj
- Ali Beriwan Abdulqadir
- Ali Hiwa Abubaker
- Ali Liaqat
- Ali Syed Shujait
- Alimohamadi Yousef
- Alipour Vahid
- Aljunid Syed Mohamed
- Alkhayyat Motasem
- Almustanyir Sami
- Alonso Nivaldo
- Alqalyoobi Shehabaldin
- Altawalah Haya
- Alvis-Guzman Nelson
- Amare Firehiwot
- Ameyaw Edward Kwabena
- Amirzade-Iranaq Mohammad Hosein
- Amu Hubert
- Amusa Ganiyu Adeniyi
- Ancuceanu Robert
- Anderson Jason A
- Animut Yaregal Animut
- Anoushiravani Amir
- Anoushirvani Ali Arash
- Ansari-Moghaddam Alireza
- Ansha Mustafa Geleto
- Antony Benny
- Antwi Maxwell Hubert
- Anwar Sumadi Lukman
- Anwer Razique
- Anyasodor Anayochukwu Edward
- Arab-Zozani Morteza
- Arabloo Jalal
- Aremu Olatunde
- Argaw Ayele Mamo
- Ariffin Hany
- Aripov Timur
- Arshad Muhammad
- Artaman Al
- Arulappan Judie
- Aruleba Raphael Taiwo
- Aryannejad Armin
- Asaad Malke
- Asemahagn Mulusew A
- Asemi Zatollah
- Asghari-Jafarabadi Mohammad
- Ashraf Tahira
- Assadi Reza
- Athar Mohammad
- Athari Seyyed Shamsadin
- Atout Maha Moh'd Wahbi
- Attia Sameh
- Aujayeb Avinash
- Ausloos Marcel
- Avila-Burgos Leticia
- Avval Atlas Haddadi
- Awedew Atalel Fentahun
- Awoke Mamaru Ayenew
- Awoke Tewachew
- Ayana Tegegn Mulatu
- Ayen Solomon Shitu
- Azadi Davood
- Azadnajafabad Sina
- Azami-Aghdash Saber
- Azanaw Melkalem Mamuye
- Azangou-Khyavy Mohammadreza
- Azizi Hosein
- Azzam Ahmed YY
- Babajani Amirhesam
- Badar Muhammad
- Badiye Ashish D
- Baghcheghi Nayereh
- Bagheri Nader
- Bagherieh Sara
- Bahadory Saeed
- Baig Atif Amin
- Bain Luchuo Engelbert
- Baker Jennifer L
- Bakhtiari Ahad
- Bakshi Ravleen Kaur
- Banach Maciej
- Banerjee Indrajit
- Bardhan Mainak
- Barone-Adesi Francesco
- Barra Fabio
- Barrow Amadou
- Bashir Nasir Z
- Bashiri Azadeh
- Basu Saurav
- Batiha Abdul-Monim Mohammad
- Begum Aeysha
- Bekele Alehegn Bekele
- Belay Alemayehu Sayih
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- Belgaumi Uzma Iqbal
- Bell Arielle Wilder
- Belo Luis
- Benzian Habib
- Berhie Alemshet Yirga
- Bermudez Amiel Nazer C
- Bernabe Eduardo
- Bhagavathula Akshaya Srikanth
- Bhala Neeraj
- Bhandari Bharti Bhandari
- Bhardwaj Nikha
- Bhardwaj Pankaj
- Bhattacharyya Krittika
- Bhojaraja Vijayalakshmi S
- Bhuyan Soumitra S
- Bibi Sadia
- Bicer Burcu Kucuk
- Bilchut Awraris Hailu
- Bintoro Bagas Suryo
- Biondi Antonio
- Birega Mesfin Geremaw Birega
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- Bjørge Tone
- Blyuss Oleg
- Bodicha Belay Boda Abule
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- Bolla Srinivasa Rao
- Boloor Archith
- Bosetti Cristina
- Braithwaite Dejana
- Brauer Michael
- Brenner Hermann
- Briko Andrey Nikolaevich
- Briko Nikolay Ivanovich
- Buchanan Christina Maree
- Bulamu Norma B
- Bustamante-Teixeira Maria Teresa
- Butt Muhammad Hammad
- Butt Nadeem Shafique
- Butt Zahid A
- Cao Chao
- Cao Yin
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- Carvalho Márcia
- Cembranel Francieli
- Cerin Ester
- Chakraborty Promit Ananyo
- Chandrasekar Viveksandeep Thoguluva
- Charalampous Periklis
- Chattu Vijay Kumar
- Chimed-Ochir Odgerel
- Chirinos-Caceres Jesus Lorenzo
- Cho Daniel Youngwhan
- Cho William CS
- Christopher Devasahayam J
- Chu Dinh-Toi
- Chukwu Isaac Sunday
- Cohen Aaron J
- Collaborators GBD 2019 Cancer Risk Factors
- Compton Kelly
- Conde Joao
- Cortés Sandra
- Costa Vera Marisa
- Cruz-Martins Natália
- Culbreth Garland T
- Cámera Luis Alberto
- Dadras Omid
- Dagnaw Fentaw Teshome
- Dahlawi Saad MA
- Dai Xiaochen
- Dandona Lalit
- Dandona Rakhi
- Daneshpajouhnejad Parnaz
- Danielewicz Anna
- Dao An Thi Minh
- Darwesh Aso Mohammad
- Das Saswati
- Davitoiu Dragos Virgil
- De la Hoz Fernando Pio
- Debela Sisay Abebe
- Dehghan Azizallah
- Dehkordi Javad Javad Aminian
- Demisse Biniyam
- Demisse Fitsum Wolde
- Denova-Gutiérrez Edgar
- Derakhshani Afshin
- Dereje Diriba
- Deribe Kalkidan Solomon
- Desai Rupak
- Desalegn Markos Desalegn
- Desideri Lorenzo Ferro
- Dessalegn Fikadu Nugusu
- Dessalegni Samuel Abebe A
- Dessie Gashaw
- Desta Abebaw Alemayehu
- Dewan Syed Masudur Rahman
- Dharmaratne Samath Dhamminda
- Dhimal Meghnath
- Dianatinasab Mostafa
- Diao Nancy
- Diaz Daniel
- Digesa Lankamo Ena
- Dixit Shilpi Gupta
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- Doan Linh Phuong
- Doku Paul Narh
- Dongarwar Deepa
- dos Santos Florentino Luciano Caetano
- dos Santos Wendel Mombaque
- Driscoll Tim Robert
- Dsouza Haneil Larson
- Durojaiye Oyewole Christopher
- Edalati Sareh
- Eghbalian Fatemeh
- Ehsani-Chimeh Elham
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- Ekundayo Temitope Cyrus
- Ekwueme Donatus U
- El-Huneidi Waseem
- Elbahnasawy Mostafa Ahmed
- Elbarazi Iffat
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- Elhadi Muhammed
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- Enyew Daniel Berhanie
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- Etaee Farshid
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- Fischer Florian
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- Force Lisa M
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- Gaal Peter Andras
- Gad Mohamed M
- Gadanya Muktar A
- Gaipov Abduzhappar
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- Gallus Silvano
- Garg Tushar
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- Getachew Motuma Erena
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- Ghozy Sherief
- Gilani Syed Amir
- Gill Paramjit Singh
- Ginindza Themba G
- Gizaw Abraham Tamirat T
- Glasbey James C
- Godos Justyna
- Goel Amit
- Golechha Mahaveer
- Goleij Pouya
- Golinelli Davide
- Golitaleb Mohamad
- Gorini Giuseppe
- Goulart Bárbara Niegia Garcia
- Grosso Giuseppe
- Guadie Habtamu Alganeh
- Gubari Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen
- Gudayu Temesgen Worku
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- Halboub Esam S
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- Halwani Rabih
- Hamad Hanadi Al
- Hamadeh Randah R
- Hameed Sajid
- Hamidi Samer
- Hanif Asif
- Hariri Sanam
- Harlianto Netanja I
- Haro Josep Maria
- Hartono Risky Kusuma
- Hasaballah Ahmed I
- Hasan SM Mahmudul
- Hasani Hamidreza
- Hashemi Seyedeh Melika
- Hassan Abbas M
- Hassanipour Soheil
- Hay Simon I
- Hayat Khezar
- Heidari Golnaz
- Heidari Mohammad
- Heidarymeybodi Zahra
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- Herteliu Claudiu
- Hezam Kamal
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- Hlongwa Mbuzeleni Mbuzeleni
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- Hoseini Mohammad
- Hossain Mahbub
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- Hosseinzadeh Ali
- Hosseinzadeh Mehdi
- Hostiuc Mihaela
- Hostiuc Sorin
- Househ Mowafa
- Huang Junjie
- Hugo Fernando N
- Humayun Ayesha
- Hussain Salman
- Hussein Nawfal R
- Hwang Bing-Fang
- Ibitoye Segun Emmanuel
- Iftikhar Pulwasha Maria
- Ikuta Kevin S
- Ilesanmi Olayinka Stephen
- Ilic Irena M
- Ilic Milena D
- Immurana Mustapha
- Innos Kaire
- Iranpour Pooya
- Irham Lalu Muhammad
- Isfahani Haleh Mousavi
- Islam Rakibul M
- Islam Shariful
- Islami Farhad
- Ismail Nahlah Elkudssiah
- Isola Gaetano
- Iwagami Masao
- J Linda Merin
- Jabbari Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh
- Jafari Amirhossein Azari
- Jaiswal Abhishek
- Jakovljevic Mihajlo
- Jalili Mahsa
- Jalilian Shahram
- Jamshidi Elham
- Jang Sung-In
- Jani Chinmay T
- Javaheri Tahereh
- Jayarajah Umesh Umesh
- Jayaram Shubha
- Jazayeri Seyed Behzad
- Jebai Rime
- Jemal Bedru
- Jeong Wonjeong
- Jha Ravi Prakash
- Jindal Har Ashish
- John-Akinola Yetunde O
- Jonas Jost B
- Jonasson Junmei Miao
- Joo Tamas
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- Joukar Farahnaz
- Jozwiak Jacek Jerzy
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- Jürisson Mikk
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- Kalankesh Leila R
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- Kar Sitanshu Sekhar
- Karanth Shama D
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- Karch André
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- Kim Yun Jin
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- Lau Jerrald
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- Lee Wei-Chen
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- Lee Yo Han
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- Leigh James
- Leong Elvynna
- Li Ming-Chieh
- Lim Stephen S
- Liu Gang
- Liu Jue
- Lo Chun-Han
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- Mathews Elezebeth
- Mathur Manu Raj
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- Olagunju Tinuke O
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- Omer Emad
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- Onwujekwe Obinna E
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- Rahim Fakher
- Rahman Mosiur
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- Rajai Nazanin
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- Ram Pradhum
- Ramezanzadeh Kiana
- Rana Juwel
- Ranabhat Kamal
- Ranasinghe Priyanga
- Rao Chythra R
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- Rashedi Sina
- Rashid Tarik Ahmed
- Rashidi Amirfarzan
- Rashidi Mahsa
- Rashidi Mohammad-Mahdi
- Ratan Zubair Ahmed
- Rawaf David Laith
- Rawaf Salman
- Rawal Lal
- Rawassizadeh Reza
- Razeghinia Mohammad Sadegh
- Rehman Ashfaq Ur
- Rehman Inayat ur
- Reitsma Marissa B
- Renzaho Andre MN
- Rezaei Maryam
- Rezaei Nazila
- Rezaei Negar
- Rezaei Nima
- Rezaei Saeid
- Rezaeian Mohsen
- Rezapour Aziz
- Riad Abanoub
- Rikhtegar Reza
- Rios-Blancas Maria
- Roberts Thomas J
- Rohloff Peter
- Romero-Rodríguez Esperanza
- Roshandel Gholamreza
- Rwegerera Godfrey M
- Saber-Ayad Maha Mohamed
- Saberzadeh-Ardestani Bahar
- Sabour Siamak
- Saddik Basema
- Sadeghi Erfan
- Saeb Mohammad Reza
- Saeed Umar
- Safaei Mohsen
- Safary Azam
- Sahebazzamani Maryam
- Sahebkar Amirhossein
- Sahoo Harihar
- Sajid Mirza Rizwan
- Salari Hedayat
- Salehi Sana
- Salem Marwa Rashad
- Salimzadeh Hamideh
- Samodra Yoseph Leonardo
- Samy Abdallah M
- Sanabria Juan
- Sankararaman Senthilkumar
- Sanmarchi Francesco
- Santric-Milicevic Milena M
- Saqib Muhammad Arif Nadeem
- Sarabi Mostafa Moradi
- Sarveazad Arash
- Sarvi Fatemeh
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- Satpathy Maheswar
- Sayegh Nicolas
- Schneider Ione Jayce Ceola
- Schwarzinger Michaël
- Senthilkumaran Subramanian
- Sepanlou Sadaf G
- Seylani Allen
- Seyoum Kenbon
- Sha Feng
- Shafaat Omid
- Shah Pritik A
- Shahabi Saeed
- Shahid Izza
- Shahrbaf Mohammad Amin
- Shahsavari Hamid R
- Shaikh Masood Ali
- Shaka Mohammed Feyisso
- Shaker Elaheh
- Shannawaz Mohammed
- Sharew Mequannent Melaku Sharew
- Sharifi Azam
- Sharifi-Rad Javad
- Sharma Purva
- Shashamo Bereket Beyene
- Sheikh
- Sheikh Aziz
- Sheikhbahaei Sara
- Sheikhi Rahim Ali
- Sheikhy Ali
- Shepherd Peter Robin
- Shetty Adithi
- Shetty Jeevan K
- Shetty Ranjitha S
- Shibuya Kenji
- Shirkoohi Reza
- Shirzad-Aski Hesamaddin
- Shivakumar KM
- Shivalli Siddharudha
- Shivarov Velizar
- Shobeiri Parnian
- Shorofi Seyed Afshin
- Shrestha Sunil
- Sibhat Migbar Mekonnen
- Sidemo Negussie Boti
- Silva Diego Augusto Santos
- Silva Luís Manuel Lopes Rodrigues
- Silvestris Nicola
- Simegn Wudneh
- Singh Achintya Dinesh
- Singh Ambrish
- Singh Garima
- Singh Harpreet
- Singh Jasvinder A
- Singh Jitendra Kumar
- Singh Paramdeep
- Singh Surjit
- Sinha Dhirendra Narain
- Sinke Abiy H
- Siraj Shahjahan
- Sitas Freddy
- Siwal Samarjeet Singh
- Skryabin Valentin Yurievich
- Skryabina Anna Aleksandrovna
- Socea Bogdan
- Soeberg Matthew J
- Sofi-Mahmudi Ahmad
- Solomon Yonatan
- Soltani Reza Darvishi Cheshmeh
- Soltani-Zangbar Mohammad Sadegh
- Song Suhang
- Song Yimeng
- Soodejani Moslem Taheri
- Sorensen Reed JD
- Soshnikov Sergey
- Sotoudeh Houman
- Sowe Alieu
- Sufiyan Mu'awiyyah Babale
- Suk Ryan
- Suleman Muhammad
- Sultana Saima
- Sur Daniel
- Swamy Sreenivas Narasimha
- Syed Zahiruddin Quazi
- Szócska Miklós
- Tabaeian Seidamir Pasha
- Tabari Mohammad Amin Khazeei
- Tabarés-Seisdedos Rafael
- Tabatabaei Seyyed Mohammad
- Tabuchi Takahiro
- Tadbiri Hooman
- Tahbaz Sahel Valadan
- Taheri Ensiyeh
- Taheri Majid
- Takahashi Ken
- Talaat Iman M
- Tampa Mircea
- Tan Ker-Kan
- Tantawi Maha El
- Tat Nathan Y
- Tat Vivian Y
- Tavakoli Ahmad
- Tavakoli Arash
- Tehrani-Banihashemi Arash
- Tekalegn Yohannes
- Tesfay Fisaha Haile
- Thapar Rekha
- Thavamani Aravind
- Thomas Nihal
- Thomas Nikhil Kenny
- Ticoalu Jansje Henny Vera
- Tiyuri Amir
- Tollosa Daniel Nigusse
- Topor-Madry Roman
- Toroudi Hamidreza Pazoki
- Touvier Mathilde
- Tovani-Palone Marcos Roberto
- Traini Eugenio
- Tran Khanh Bao
- Tran Mai Thi Ngoc
- Tripathy Jaya Prasad
- Ukke Gebresilasea Gendisha
- Ullah Irfan
- Ullah Saif
- Ullah Sana
- Unnikrishnan Bhaskaran
- Vacante Marco
- Vaezi Maryam
- Valdez Pascual R
- Van Nguyen Nguyen Huy
- Vardavas Constantine
- Varniab Zahra Shokri
- Varthya Shoban Babu
- Vaziri Siavash
- Velazquez Diana Zuleika
- Veroux Massimiliano
- Villeneuve Paul J
- Violante Francesco S
- Vladimirov Sergey Konstantinovitch
- Vlassov Vasily
- Vo Bay
- Vos Theo
- Vu Linh Gia
- Wadood Abdul Wadood
- Waheed Yasir
- Walde Mandaras Tariku
- Wamai Richard G
- Wang Cong
- Wang Fang
- Wang Ning
- Wang Yu
- Ward Paul
- Waris Abdul
- Westerman Ronny
- Wickramasinghe Nuwan Darshana
- Woldemariam Melat
- Woldu Berhanu
- Xiao Hong
- Xu Rixing
- Xu Suowen
- Xu Xiaoyue
- Yadav Lalit
- Yang Lin
- Yazdanpanah Fereshteh
- Yeshaw Yigizie
- Yismaw Yazachew
- Yonemoto Naohiro
- Younis Mustafa Z
- Yousefi Zabihollah
- Yousefian Fatemeh
- Yu Chuanhua
- Yu Yong
- Yunusa Ismaeel
- Zahir Mazyar
- Zaki Nazar
- Zaman Burhan Abdullah
- Zangiabadian Moein
- Zare Fariba
- Zare Iman
- Zareshahrabadi Zahra
- Zarrintan Armin
- Zastrozhin Mikhail Sergeevich
- Zeineddine Mohammad A
- Zhang Dongyu
- Zhang Jianrong
- Zhang Yunquan
- Zhang Zhi-Jiang
- Zhou Linghui
- Zodpey Sanjay
- Zoladl Mohammad
- Šekerija Mario
- Publication venue
- Publication date
- 01/01/2022
- Field of study
Background Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4.45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4.01-4.94) deaths and 105 million (95.0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44.4% (41.3-48.4) of all cancer deaths and 42.0% (39.1-45.6) of all DALYs. There were 2.88 million (2.60-3.18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50.6% [47.8-54.1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1.58 million (1.36-1.84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36.3% [32.5-41.3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20.4% (12.6-28.4) and DALYs by 16.8% (8.8-25.0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34.7% [27.9-42.8] and 33.3% [25.8-42.0]). Interpretation The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.Peer reviewe
Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
- Author
- Aali Amirali
- Abbafati Cristiana
- Abbas Jaffar
- Abbasgholizadeh Rouzbeh
- Abbasi Madineh Akram
- Abbasian Mohammadreza
- Abd ElHafeez Samar
- Abd-Elsalam Sherief
- Abdelmasseh Michael
- Abdelwahab Ahmed
- Abdollahi Mohammad
- Abdoun Meriem
- Abdullahi Auwal
- Abdurehman Ame Mehadi
- Abebe Mesfin
- Abedi Aidin
- Abedi Armita
- Abegaz Tadesse M
- Abeldaño Zuñiga Roberto Ariel
- Abhilash E S
- Abiodun Olugbenga Olusola
- Aboagye Richard Gyan
- Abolhassani Hassan
- Abouzid Mohamed
- Abreu Lucas Guimarães
- Abrha Woldu Aberhe
- Abrigo Michael R M
- Abtahi Dariush
- Abu Rumeileh Samir
- Abu-Rmeileh Niveen ME
- Abu-Zaid Ahmed
- Aburuz Salahdein
- Acuna Juan Manuel
- Adair Tim
- Addo Isaac Yeboah
- Adebayo Oladimeji M
- Adegboye Oyelola A
- Adekanmbi Victor
- Aden Bashir
- Adepoju Abiola Victor
- Adetunji Charles Oluwaseun
- Adeyeoluwa Temitayo Esther
- Adeyomoye Olorunsola Israel
- Adha Rishan
- Adibi Amin
- Adikusuma Wirawan
- Adnani Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah
- Adra Saryia
- Afework Abel
- Afolabi Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika
- Afraz Ali
- Afyouni Shadi
- Afzal Saira
- Agasthi Pradyumna
- Aghamiri Shahin
- Agodi Antonella
- Agyemang-Duah Williams
- Ahinkorah Bright Opoku
- Ahmad Aqeel
- Ahmad Danish
- Ahmad Firdos
- Ahmad Muayyad M
- Ahmad Tauseef
- Ahmadi Keivan
- Ahmadzade Amir Mahmoud
- Ahmadzade Mohadese
- Ahmed Ayman
- Ahmed Haroon
- Ahmed Luai A
- Ahmed Muktar Beshir
- Ahmed Syed Anees
- Ajami Marjan
- Aji Budi
- Ajumobi Olufemi
- Akalu Gizachew Taddesse
- Akara Essona Matatom
- Akinosoglou Karolina
- Akkala Sreelatha
- Akyirem Samuel
- Al Hamad Hanadi
- Al Hasan Syed Mahfuz
- Al Homsi Ammar
- Al Qadire Mohammad
- AL-Ahdal Tareq Mohammed Ali
- Al-Aly Ziyad
- Al-amer Rasmieh Mustafa
- Al-Eyadhy Ayman
- Al-Gheethi Adel Ali Saeed
- Al-Hanawi Mohammed Khaled
- Al-Jumaily Adel
- Al-Marwani Sabah
- Al-Maweri Sadeq Ali Ali
- Al-Mekhlafi Hesham M
- Al-Sabah Salman Khalifah
- Al-Tawfiq Jaffar A
- Al-Worafi Yaser Mohammed
- Ala Moein
- Aladelusi Timothy Olukunle
- Alalalmeh Samer O
- Alam Khurshid
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- Alam Zufishan
- Alanezi Fahad Mashhour
- Alanzi Turki M
- Albashtawy Mohammed
- AlBataineh Mohammad T
- Aldridge Robert W
- Alemi Sharifullah
- Alhabib Khalid F
- Alhalaiqa Fadwa Alhalaiqa Naji
- Ali Abid
- Ali Akhtar
- Ali Beriwan Abdulqadir
- Ali Hassam
- Ali Mohammed Usman
- Ali Rafat
- Ali Syed Shujait Shujait
- Ali Zahid
- Alian Samakkhah Shohreh
- Alicandro Gianfranco
- Alif Sheikh Mohammad
- Aligol Mohammad
- Alimi Rasoul
- Aliyi Ahmednur Adem
- Aljunid Syed Mohamed
- Almahmeed Wael
- Almazan Joseph Uy
- Almidani Omar
- Alomari Mahmoud A
- Alonso Nivaldo
- Alqahtani Jaber S
- Alqutaibi Ahmed Yaseen
- Altaf Awais
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- Aly Hany
- Alzoubi Karem H
- Amare Azmeraw T
- Ameyaw Edward Kwabena
- Amhare Abebe Feyissa
- Amin Tarek Tawfik
- Amindarolzarbi Alireza
- Aminian Dehkordi Javad
- Amiri Sohrab
- Amu Hubert
- Amugsi Dickson A
- Amzat Jimoh
- Ancuceanu Robert
- Anderlini Deanna
- Andrade Pedro Prata
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- Angappan Dhanalakshmi
- Anil Abhishek
- Anjum Afifa
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- Antriyandarti Ernoiz
- Anuoluwa Iyadunni Adesola
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- Anyasodor Anayochukwu Edward
- Appiah Seth Christopher Yaw
- Aqeel Muhammad
- Arab-Zozani Morteza
- Arabloo Jalal
- Arabzadeh Bahri Razman
- Arafat Mosab
- Araújo Ana Margarida
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- Aripov Timur
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- Arooj Mahwish
- Artamonov Anton A
- Artanti Kurnia Dwi
- Arulappan Judie
- Aruleba Idowu Thomas
- Aruleba Raphael Taiwo
- Arumugam Ashokan
- Asaad Malke
- Asgary Saeed
- Ashemo Mubarek Yesse
- Ashraf Muhammad
- Asika Marvellous O
- Athari Seyyed Shamsadin
- Atout Maha Moh'd Wahbi
- Atreya Alok
- Attia Sameh
- Aujayeb Avinash
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- Ayala Quintanilla Beatriz Paulina
- Ayanore Martin Amogre
- Ayele Getnet Melaku
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- Ayyoubzadeh Seyed Mohammad
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- Biondi Antonio
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- Biswas Atanu
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- Bitaraf Saeid
- Bjørge Tone
- Bleyer Archie
- Boampong Mary Sefa
- Bodolica Virginia
- Bodunrin Aadam Olalekan
- Bolarinwa Obasanjo Afolabi
- Bonakdar Hashemi Milad
- Bonny Aime
- Bora Basara Berrak
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- Chakraborty Chiranjib
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- Chang Chin-Kuo
- Charalampous Periklis
- Charan Jaykaran
- Chattu Vijay Kumar
- Chatzimavridou-Grigoriadou Victoria
- Chavula Malizgani Paul
- Cheema Huzaifa Ahmad
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- Chi Gerald
- Chirinos-Caceres Jesus Lorenzo
- Chitheer Abdulaal
- Cho So Mi Jemma
- Cho William C S
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- Chopra Hitesh
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- Chu Dinh-Toi
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- Chung Eric
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- Clark Cain C T
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- Damiani Giovanni
- Daneshvar Sara
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- Das Jai K
- Das Saswati
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- Dashti Mohsen
- Davis Weaver Nicole
- Davletov Kairat
- Dávila-Cervantes Claudio Alberto
- De Leo Diego
- Debele Aklilu Tamire
- Degenhardt Louisa
- Dehbandi Reza
- Deitesfeld Lee
- Delgado-Enciso Ivan
- Delgado-Ortiz Laura
- Demant Daniel
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- Demetriades Andreas K
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- Deuba Keshab
- Devanbu Vinoth Gnana Chellaiyan
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- Dhali Arkadeep
- Dhama Kuldeep
- Dhimal Mandira Lamichhane
- Dhimal Meghnath
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- Dias da Silva Diana
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- do Prado Camila Bruneli
- Do Thanh Chi
- Do Thao Huynh Phuong
- Dodangeh Masoud
- Dokova Klara Georgieva
- Dolecek Christiane
- Dorsey E Ray
- dos Santos Wendel Mombaque
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- Doshmangir Leila
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- Eboreime Ejemai
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- Echieh Chidiebere Peter
- Ed-Dra Abdelaziz
- Edinur Hisham Atan
- Edvardsson David
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- Eghdami Shayan
- Eikemo Terje Andreas
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- Ekpor Emmanuel
- Ekundayo Temitope Cyrus
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- Emeto Theophilus I
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- Etaee Farshid
- Eze Ugochukwu Anthony
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- Fagbamigbe Adeniyi Francis
- Fahimi Saman
- Falzone Luca
- Farinha Carla Sofia e Sá
- Faris MoezAlIslam Ezzat Mahmoud
- Farjoud Kouhanjani Mohsen
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- Farrokhpour Hossein
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- Ghassemi Fariba
- Ghazy Ramy Mohamed
- Ghimire Sailaja
- Gholamian Asadollah
- Gholamrezanezhad Ali
- Ghorbani Vajargah Pooyan
- Ghozali Ghozali
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- Grivna Michal
- Guarducci Giovanni
- Gubari Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen
- Gudeta Mesay Dechasa
- Guha Avirup
- Guicciardi Stefano
- Gunawardane Damitha Asanga
- Gunturu Sasidhar
- Guo Cui
- Gupta Anish Kumar
- Gupta Bhawna
- Gupta Indarchand Ratanlal
- Gupta Rajat Das
- Gupta Sapna
- Gupta Veer Bala
- Gupta Vijai Kumar
- Gupta Vivek Kumar
- Gutiérrez Reyna Alma
- Habibzadeh Farrokh
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- Thangaraju Pugazhenthan
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- Thapa Rajshree
- Thapar Rekha
- Thomas Nihal
- Thrift Amanda G
- Thum Chern Choong Chern
- Tian Jing
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- Venketasubramanian Narayanaswamy
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- Wen Yi Feng
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- Xiao Hong
- Xu Bin
- Xu Xiaoyue
- Yadav Lalit
- Yaghoubi Sajad
- Yang Lin
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- Yao Yao
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- Yesodharan Renjulal
- Yesuf Subah Abderehim
- Yiğit Arzu
- Yiğit Vahit
- Yip Paul
- Yon Dong Keon
- Yonemoto Naohiro
- You Yuyi
- Younis Mustafa Z
- Yu Chuanhua
- Zadey Siddhesh
- Zadnik Vesna
- Zafari Nima
- Zahedi Mohammad
- Zahid Muhammad Nauman
- Zahir Mazyar
- Zakham Fathiah
- Zaki Nazar
- Zakzuk Josefina
- Zamagni Giulia
- Zaman Burhan Abdullah
- Zaman Sojib Bin
- Zamora Nelson
- Zand Ramin
- Zandi Milad
- Zandieh Ghazal G Z
- Zanghì Aurora
- Zare Iman
- Zastrozhin Mikhail Sergeevich
- Zeariya Mohammed G M
- Zeng Youjie
- Zhai Chunxia
- Zhang Chen
- Zhang Haijun
- Zhang Hongwei
- Zhang Yunquan
- Zhang Zhaofeng
- Zhang Zhenyu
- Zhao Hanqing
- Zhao Yang
- Zhao Yong
- Zheng Peng
- Zhong Chenwen
- Zhou Juexiao
- Zhu Bin
- Zhu Zhaohua
- Ziaeefar Pardis
- Zielińska Magdalena
- Zou Zhiyong
- Zumla Alimuddin
- Zweck Elric
- Zyoud Samer H
- Publication venue
- Publication date
- 01/01/2024
- Field of study
Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic
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Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
- Author
- Aali Amirali
- Ababneh Hazim S
- Abate Yohannes Habtegiorgis
- Abbafati Cristiana
- Abbasgholizadeh Rouzbeh
- Abbasi-Kangevari Mohsen
- Abbasian Mohammadreza
- Abbastabar Hedayat
- Abd ElHafeez Samar
- Abd-Elsalam Sherief
- Abdelmasseh Michael
- Abdelwahab Ahmed
- Abdollahi Mohammad
- Abdollahifar Mohammad-Amin
- Abdoun Meriem
- Abdulah Deldar Morad
- Abdullahi Auwal
- Abebe Mesfin
- Abebe Samrawit Shawel
- Abedi Aidin
- Abegaz Kedir Hussein
- Abhilash E S
- Abidi Hassan
- Abiodun Olumide
- Aboagye Richard Gyan
- Abolhassani Hassan
- Abolmaali Meysam
- Abouzid Mohamed
- Aboye Girma Beressa
- Abreu Lucas Guimarães
- Abrha Woldu Aberhe
- Abtahi Dariush
- Abu Rumeileh Samir
- Abu-Gharbieh Eman
- Abu-Rmeileh Niveen ME
- Abu-Zaid Ahmed
- Abualruz Hasan
- Abubakar Bilyaminu
- Aburuz Salahdein
- Accrombessi Manfred Mario Kokou
- Adal Tadele Girum
- Adamu Abdu A
- Addo Isaac Yeboah
- Addolorato Giovanni
- Adebiyi Akindele Olupelumi
- Adekanmbi Victor
- Adepoju Abiola Victor
- Adetunji Charles Oluwaseun
- Adetunji Juliana Bunmi
- Adeyeoluwa Temitayo Esther
- Adeyinka Daniel Adedayo
- Adeyomoye Olorunsola Israel
- Admass Biruk Adie Adie
- Adnani Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah
- Adra Saryia
- Afolabi Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika
- Afzal Muhammad Sohail
- Afzal Saira
- Agampodi Suneth Buddhika
- Agasthi Pradyumna
- Aggarwal Manik
- Aghamiri Shahin
- Agide Feleke Doyore
- Agodi Antonella
- Agrawal Anurag
- Agyemang-Duah Williams
- Ahinkorah Bright Opoku
- Ahmad Aqeel
- Ahmad Danish
- Ahmad Firdos
- Ahmad Muayyad M
- Ahmad Sajjad
- Ahmad Shahzaib
- Ahmad Tauseef
- Ahmadi Keivan
- Ahmadzade Amir Mahmoud
- Ahmed Ali
- Ahmed Ayman
- Ahmed Haroon
- Ahmed Luai A
- Ahmed Mehrunnisha Sharif
- Ahmed Meqdad Saleh
- Ahmed Muktar Beshir
- Ahmed Syed Anees
- Ajami Marjan
- Aji Budi
- Akara Essona Matatom
- Akbarialiabad Hossein
- Akinosoglou Karolina
- Akinyemiju Tomi
- Akkaif Mohammed Ahmed
- Akyirem Samuel
- Al Hamad Hanadi
- Al Hasan Syed Mahfuz
- Al-Aly Ziyad
- Al-amer Rasmieh Mustafa
- Al-Azzam Sayer
- Al-Gheethi Adel Ali Saeed
- Al-Hanawi Mohammed Khaled
- Al-Marwani Sabah
- Al-Maweri Sadeq Ali Ali
- Al-Mekhlafi Hesham M
- Al-Omari Basem
- Al-Sabah Salman Khalifah
- Al-Tawfiq Jaffar A
- Al-Worafi Yaser Mohammed
- Alahdab Fares
- Alalalmeh Samer O
- Alalwan Tariq A
- Alam Khurshid
- Alam Manjurul
- Alam Noore
- Alanezi Fahad Mashhour
- Alanzi Turki M
- Albakri Almaza
- Albashtawy Mohammed
- AlBataineh Mohammad T
- Alcalde-Rabanal Jacqueline Elizabeth
- Aldawsari Khalifah A
- Aldhaleei Wafa A
- Aldridge Robert W
- Alema Haileselasie Berhane
- Alemayohu Mulubirhan Assefa
- Alemi Sharifullah
- Alemu Yihun Mulugeta
- Alhabib Khalid F
- Alhalaiqa Fadwa Alhalaiqa Naji
- Ali Abid
- Ali Amjad
- Ali Liaqat
- Ali Mohammed Usman
- Ali Rafat
- Ali Shahid
- Ali Syed Shujait Shujait
- Alicandro Gianfranco
- Alif Sheikh Mohammad
- Alikhani Reyhaneh
- Alimohamadi Yousef
- Aliyi Ahmednur Adem
- Aljasir Mohammad A M
- Aljunid Syed Mohamed
- Alla François
- Allebeck Peter
- Almazan Joseph Uy
- Almidani Louay
- Almidani Omar
- Alomari Mahmoud A
- Alonso Jordi
- Alqahtani Jaber S
- Alqalyoobi Shehabaldin
- Alqutaibi Ahmed Yaseen
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- Amin Tarek Tawfik
- Amindarolzarbi Alireza
- Amiri Sohrab
- Amirzade-Iranaq Mohammad Hosein
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- Amugsi Dickson A
- Amusa Ganiyu Adeniyi
- Ancuceanu Robert
- Anderlini Deanna
- Anderson David B
- Andrade Pedro Prata
- Andrei Catalina Liliana
- Andrei Tudorel
- Angus Colin
- Anil Abhishek
- Anil Sneha
- Anoushiravani Amir
- Ansari Hossein
- Ansari-Moghaddam Alireza
- Ansariadi Ansariadi
- Antony Catherine M
- Antriyandarti Ernoiz
- Anvari Davood
- Anvari Saeid
- Anwar Saleha
- Anwar Sumadi Lukman
- Anwer Razique
- Anyasodor Anayochukwu Edward
- Aqeel Muhammad
- Arab Juan Pablo
- Arabloo Jalal
- Arafat Mosab
- Aravkin Aleksandr Y
- Areda Demelash
- Aremu Abdulfatai
- Aremu Olatunde
- Ariffin Hany
- Arkew Mesay
- Armocida Benedetta
- Arndt Michael Benjamin
- Arooj Mahwish
- Artamonov Anton A
- Arulappan Judie
- Aruleba Raphael Taiwo
- Arumugam Ashokan
- Asaad Malke
- Asadi-Lari Mohsen
- Asgedom Akeza Awealom
- Asghari-Jafarabadi Mohammad
- Asghariahmadabad Mona
- Ashraf Muhammad
- Aslani Armin
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- Athar Mohammad
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- Atinafu Bantalem Tilaye Tilaye
- Atlaw Habtamu Wondmagegn
- Atorkey Prince
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- Atreya Alok
- Aujayeb Avinash
- Ausloos Marcel
- Avan Abolfazl
- Awedew Atalel Fentahun
- Aweke Amlaku Mulat
- Ayala Quintanilla Beatriz Paulina
- Ayatollahi Haleh
- Ayuso-Mateos Jose L
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- Bejarano Ramirez Diana Fernanda
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- Bhardwaj Prarthna V
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- Boachie Micheal Kofi
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- Chaurasia Akhilanand
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- Chen Haowei
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- Chen Simiao
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- Chitheer Abdulaal
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- Chong Bryan
- Chopra Hitesh
- Choudhari Sonali Gajanan
- Chowdhury Rajiv
- Christopher Devasahayam J
- Chukwu Isaac Sunday
- Chung Eric
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- Chung Eunice
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- Radhakrishnan Venkatraman
- Raeisi Shahraki Hadi
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- Raggi Alberto
- Raghav Pankaja Raghav
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- Rahim Fakher
- Rahim Md Jillur
- Rahimi-Movaghar Vafa
- Rahman Md Mosfequr
- Rahman Mohammad Hifz Ur
- Rahman Mosiur
- Rahman Muhammad Aziz
- Rahmani Amir Masoud
- Rahmani Shayan
- Rahmanian Vahid
- Rajaa Sathish
- Rajput Prashant
- Rakovac Ivo
- Ramasamy Shakthi Kumaran
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- Rana Kritika
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- Ravangard Ramin
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- Tabatabai Shima
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- TADAKAMADLA JYOTHI
- Tadakamadla Santosh Kumar
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- Tan Ker-Kan
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- Tang Haosu
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- Tarigan Ingan Ukur
- Tariku Mengistie Kassahun
- Tariqujjaman Md
- Tarkang Elvis Enowbeyang
- Tavakoli Oliaee Razieh
- Tavangar Seyed Mohammad
- Taveira Nuno
- Tefera Yibekal Manaye
- Temsah Mohamad-Hani
- Temsah Reem Mohamad Hani
- Teramoto Masayuki
- Tesler Riki
- Teye-Kwadjo Enoch
- Thakur Rishu
- Thangaraju Pugazhenthan
- Thankappan Kavumpurathu Raman
- Tharwat Samar
- Thayakaran Rasiah
- Thomas Nihal
- Thomas Nikhil Kenny
- Thomson Azalea M
- Thrift Amanda G
- Thum Chern Choong Chern
- Thygesen Lau Caspar
- Tian Jing
- Tichopad Ales
- Ticoalu Jansje Henny Vera
- Tillawi Tala
- Tiruye Tenaw Yimer
- Titova Mariya Vladimirovna
- Tonelli Marcello
- Topor-Madry Roman
- Toriola Adetunji T
- Torre Anna E
- Touvier Mathilde
- Tovani-Palone Marcos Roberto
- Tran Jasmine T
- Tran Nghia Minh
- Trico Domenico
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- Truyen Thien Tan Tri Tai
- Tsatsakis Aristidis
- Tsegay Guesh Mebrahtom
- Tsermpini Evangelia Eirini
- Tumurkhuu Munkhtuya
- Tung Kang
- Tyrovolas Stefanos
- Uddin Sayed Mohammad Nazim
- Udoakang Aniefiok John
- Udoh Arit
- Ullah Atta
- Ullah Irfan
- Ullah Saeed
- Ullah Sana
- Umakanthan Srikanth
- Umeokonkwo Chukwuma David
- Unim Brigid
- Unnikrishnan Bhaskaran
- Unsworth Carolyn Anne
- Upadhyay Era
- Urso Daniele
- Usman Jibrin Sammani
- Vahabi Seyed Mohammad
- Vaithinathan Asokan Govindaraj
- Valizadeh Rohollah
- Van de Velde Sarah M
- Van den Eynde Jef
- Varga Orsolya
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- Varthya Shoban Babu
- Vasankari Tommi Juhani
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- Verma Madhur
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- Villanueva Gabriela Ines
- Vinayak Manish
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- Waqas Muhammad
- Ward Paul
- Wassie Emebet Gashaw
- Watson Stefanie
- Watson Stephanie Louise Watson
- Weerakoon Kosala Gayan
- Wei Melissa Y
- Weintraub Robert G
- Weiss Daniel J
- Westerman Ronny
- Whisnant Joanna L
- Wiangkham Taweewat
- Wickramasinghe Dakshitha Praneeth
- Wickramasinghe Nuwan Darshana
- Wilandika Angga
- Wilkerson Caroline
- Willeit Peter
- Wilson Shadrach
- Wojewodzic Marcin W
- Woldegebreal Demewoz H
- Wolf Axel Walter
- Wolfe Charles D A
- Wondimagegene Yohannes Addisu
- Wong Yen Jun
- Wongsin Utoomporn
- Wool Eve E
- Wu Ai-Min
- Wu Chenkai
- Wu Felicia
- Wu Xinsheng
- Wu Zenghong
- Xia Juan
- Xiao Hong
- Xie Yang
- Xu Suowen
- Xu Wang-Dong
- Xu Xiaoyue
- Xu Yvonne Yiru
- Yadollahpour Ali
- Yamagishi Kazumasa
- Yang Danting
- Yang Lin
- Yano Yuichiro
- Yao Yao
- Yaribeygi Habib
- Ye Pengpeng
- Yehualashet Sisay Shewasinad
- Yesiltepe Metin
- Yesuf Subah Abderehim
- Yezli Saber
- Yi Siyan
- Yigezu Amanuel
- Yip Paul
- Yismaw Malede Berihun
- Yismaw Yazachew
- Yiğit Arzu
- Yiğit Vahit
- Yon Dong Keon
- Yonemoto Naohiro
- Yoon Seok-Jun
- You Yuyi
- Younis Mustafa Z
- Yousefi Zabihollah
- Yu Chuanhua
- Yu Yong
- Yuh Faith H
- Zadey Siddhesh
- Zadnik Vesna
- Zafari Nima
- Zakham Fathiah
- Zaki Nazar
- Zaman Sojib Bin
- Zamora Nelson
- Zand Ramin
- Zangiabadian Moein
- Zar Heather J
- Zare Iman
- Zarrintan Armin
- Zeariya Mohammed G M
- Zeinali Zahra
- Zhang Haijun
- Zhang Jianrong
- Zhang Jingya
- Zhang Liqun
- Zhang Yunquan
- Zhang Zhi-Jiang
- Zhao Hanqing
- Zhong Chenwen
- Zhou Juexiao
- Zhu Bin
- Zhu Lei
- Ziafati Makan
- Zielińska Magdalena
- Zitoun Osama A
- Zoladl Mohammad
- Zou Zhiyong
- Zuhlke Liesl J
- Zumla Alimuddin
- Zweck Elric
- Zyoud Samer H
- Ärnlöv Johan
- Šekerija Mario
- Publication venue
- Elsevier
- Publication date
- 01/01/2024
- Field of study
BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
From Columbus to Acosta: Science, Geography, and the New World
- Author
- Acosta Joseph de
- Acuna Rene de
- Ailly Pierre d'
- Alvarez Lopez Enrique
- Arija Rivares Emilio
- Arribas Arranz
- Baker J. N. L.
- Ballesteros Gaibrois Manuel
- Barreiros Gaspar
- Beazley Charles R.
- Beck Hanno
- Becker Jeronimo
- Benevolo Leonardo
- Borah Woodrow
- Broc Numa
- Buisseret David
- Bustos Gerardo
- Buttner Manfred
- Butzer Karl W.
- Butzer Karl W.
- Butzer Karl W.
- Butzer Karl W.
- Butzer Karl W.
- Butzer Karl W.
- Campbell Tony
- Capel Horacio
- Carriazo Juan de Mata
- Casas Bartolome de las
- Casas Bartolome de las
- Cieza de Leon Pedro
- Cieza de Leon Pedro
- Ciudad Real Antonio de
- Cline Howard F.
- Colon Fernando
- Colon Fernando
- Cortes Hernan
- Dominguez Company Francisco
- Dunn Oliver
- Duran Diego
- Edwards Clinton R.
- Edwards Clinton R.
- Elliott John H.
- Fernandez Armesto Felipe
- Fernandez de Oviedo Gonzalo
- Fernandez de Oviedo Gonzalo
- Ferrando Roberto
- Friede Juan
- Fuson Robert H.
- Gerbi Antonello
- Glass John B.
- Goodman David C.
- Green Otis H.
- Greenblatt Stephen
- Hardoy Jorge E.
- Hardoy Jorge E.
- Harley J. Brian
- Harvey P. D. A.
- Henige David
- Herrera Gabriel Alonso de
- Humboldt Alexander von
- James Preston E.
- Jane Cecil
- Jimenez de la Espada Marcos
- Kamen Henry
- Keen Benjamin
- Kimble George H. T.
- Klor de Alva J. Jorge
- Kubler George
- Landa Diego de
- Latorre German
- Licate Jack A.
- Lopez de Gomara Francisco
- Lopez Pinero Jose M.
- Lopez Pinero Jose M.
- Lovell W. George
- Martinez Val Jose M.
- Martyr d'Anghiera Peter
- Medina Pedro de
- Menendez Pidal Gonzalo
- Milanich Jerald T.
- Morse Richard M.
- Motolinia Toribio de
- Motolinia Toribio de
- Munster Sebastian
- Munzer Hieronymus
- Nader Helen
- Nebenzahl Kenneth
- Nicolau d'Olwer Luis
- Nicolau d'Olwer Luis
- O'Gorman Edmundo
- Ordenanzas
- Parry John H.
- Parry John H.
- Paso y Troncoso Francisco del
- Paso y Troncoso Francisco del
- Perez-Rioja Jose A.
- Phillips J. R. S.
- Phillips William D.
- Pliny
- Polo Marco
- Ponsot Pierre
- Ptolemy
- Ptolemy
- Quinones Keber Eloise
- Rosa y Lopez Simon de la
- Rowntree L. B.
- Sahagun Bernadino de
- Salas Alberto
- Sale Kirkpatrick
- Sauer Carl O.
- Sauer Jonathan D.
- Simpson Lesley Byrd
- Somolinos de Ardois German
- Stanislawski Dan
- Taviani Pablo Emilio
- Thacher John B.
- Tovar de Teresa Guillermo
- Varela Consuelo
- Vazquez de Espinosa Antonio
- Waldseemuller Martin
- Warren J. Benedict
- Waters David W.
- Wilson Samuel M.
- Yanes Dias Gonzalo
- Publication venue
- 'Wiley'
- Publication date
- Field of study
Global variation in postoperative mortality and complications after cancer surgery: a multicentre, prospective cohort study in 82 countries
- Author
- A Yacoub Mina
- A. Adam Mohammed
- A. Nassar Mahmoud
- A.Nemer Ayoob
- Aahlin Eirik Kjus
- Ab Rahim Mohd Fadliyazid
- Abad Gurumeta Alfredo
- Abad-Motos Ane
- Abang Jamari Dyg Zahratul Hamrak
- Abantanga Francis
- Abarca Sol
- Abazid Eias
- Abbas Abbas
- Abbas Khalid
- Abbas Mohammad Monir
- Abbasy Jibran
- Abbosh Ali
- Abd Karim Muhammad Fairuz Shah
- Abd Wahab Haidar Hadri
- Abd Barook
- Abdalei Abdulwahab
- Abdalla Ahmed Elkamel Ahmed
- Abdallah Aya
- AbdAllah Mostafa Salim Mohamed
- Abdel Malik Abu Baker
- Abdelhady Mousa Heba
- Abdelhady Samar
- Abdelhakim Ahmed
- Abdelkader Muhammad
- Abdelkawy Shaza
- Abdelkhalek Mohamed
- Abdellatif Esraa
- Abdelmaksoud Tawakel Noura
- Abdelmohsen Naglaa
- Abdelmotaleb Ibrahem
- Abdelrazek Aly
- Abdelsalam Israa
- Abdelshakour Mahmoud
- Abdelwahed Ahmed Mohamed
- Abdou Abdulrahman Osama
- Abdou Alrawy
- Abdou Hossam
- Abdul Aziz Mohamed Rezal
- Abdul Aziz Nora
- Abdulgawad Almogy Mariam
- Abdulla Mazin A.
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- Wondoh Paul M.
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- Woon-Shoo-Tong Xiao-Ming Sarah
- Wren Sherry
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- Yaghi Nadine
- Yaghi Yasmine
- Yahia Mohamed Ali Mohamed
- Yakushkina Al'ona
- Yalçinkaya Ali
- Yang P Zichu
- Yanikoglu Erkan
- Yanni Fady
- Yates Charlotte
- Ye Geoffrey
- Yeen Chin Leow
- Yemez Kürsat
- Yenidünya Nilüfer
- Yenli Edwin
- Yeo Jeremy
- Yeoh Andrea
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- Yildirim Reyyan
- Yildiz Alp
- Yilmaz Duygu
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- Yong Shun Qi
- Yoong Andrel
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- You Lucia
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- Yu Kristin
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- Yusuf Baasil
- Yüksel Osman
- Zabiyaka Mikhail
- Zachariah Sanoop Koshy
- Zafar Syed Nabeel
- Zaffaroni Gloria
- Zahra Baryab
- Zahran Diaaaldin
- Zakaria Andee Dzulkarnaen
- Zakaria Mai
- Zakaria Omar
- Zakaria Zaidi
- Zambrana Campos Vanesa
- Zammit Matthew
- Zanini Nicola
- Zara Vlu Jean
- Zara Vlu Jean
- Zarti Heba
- Zarzycki Piotr
- Zattoni Davide
- Zavala Gabriela
- Zawahrah Hassan
- Zeiton Asaid
- Zeko Amanda
- Zeng Zhi
- Zeromskas Paulius
- Zhang Geoffrey
- Zhivkov Evgeni
- Zid Esraa
- Zidan Ahmed Mohy
- Zielasek Christian
- Zilinskas Justas
- Zimmermann Bernd
- Ziprin Paul
- Zizzo Maurizio
- Zografos George
- Zoikas Athanasios
- Zorrilla Matilla Laura Patricia
- Zoulamoglou Menelaos
- Zreeg Dafer
- Zub-Pokrowiecka Anna
- Zubiaurre Vanessa
- Zuhdy Mohammed
- Zuikyte Diana
- Zuloaga Fernandez del Valle Carlos Jose
- Zulu Stanley
- Ângelo Miguel
- Älgå Andreas
- Çolak Elif
- Ümarik Toomas
- Šatkauskas Mindaugas
- Škimelyte Monika
- Šlenfuktas Vygintas
- Šuman Oliver
- Žatecký Jan
- Žumbakys Žygimantas
- Župan Domagoj
- Publication venue
- 'Elsevier BV'
- Publication date
- 30/01/2021
- Field of study
© 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 licenseBackground: 80% of individuals with cancer will require a surgical procedure, yet little comparative data exist on early outcomes in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared postoperative outcomes in breast, colorectal, and gastric cancer surgery in hospitals worldwide, focusing on the effect of disease stage and complications on postoperative mortality. Methods: This was a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of consecutive adult patients undergoing surgery for primary breast, colorectal, or gastric cancer requiring a skin incision done under general or neuraxial anaesthesia. The primary outcome was death or major complication within 30 days of surgery. Multilevel logistic regression determined relationships within three-level nested models of patients within hospitals and countries. Hospital-level infrastructure effects were explored with three-way mediation analyses. This study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03471494. Findings: Between April 1, 2018, and Jan 31, 2019, we enrolled 15 958 patients from 428 hospitals in 82 countries (high income 9106 patients, 31 countries; upper-middle income 2721 patients, 23 countries; or lower-middle income 4131 patients, 28 countries). Patients in LMICs presented with more advanced disease compared with patients in high-income countries. 30-day mortality was higher for gastric cancer in low-income or lower-middle-income countries (adjusted odds ratio 3·72, 95% CI 1·70–8·16) and for colorectal cancer in low-income or lower-middle-income countries (4·59, 2·39–8·80) and upper-middle-income countries (2·06, 1·11–3·83). No difference in 30-day mortality was seen in breast cancer. The proportion of patients who died after a major complication was greatest in low-income or lower-middle-income countries (6·15, 3·26–11·59) and upper-middle-income countries (3·89, 2·08–7·29). Postoperative death after complications was partly explained by patient factors (60%) and partly by hospital or country (40%). The absence of consistently available postoperative care facilities was associated with seven to 10 more deaths per 100 major complications in LMICs. Cancer stage alone explained little of the early variation in mortality or postoperative complications. Interpretation: Higher levels of mortality after cancer surgery in LMICs was not fully explained by later presentation of disease. The capacity to rescue patients from surgical complications is a tangible opportunity for meaningful intervention. Early death after cancer surgery might be reduced by policies focusing on strengthening perioperative care systems to detect and intervene in common complications. Funding: National Institute for Health Research Global Health Research Unit
Effects of hospital facilities on patient outcomes after cancer surgery: an international, prospective, observational study
- Author
- A Yacoub Mina
- A. Adam Mohammed
- A. Nassar Mahmoud
- A.Nemer Ayoob
- Aahlin Eirik Kjus
- Ab Rahim Mohd Fadliyazid
- Abad Gurumeta Alfredo
- Abad-Motos Ane
- Abang Jamari Dyg Zahratul Hamrak
- Abantanga Francis
- Abarca Sol
- Abazid Eias
- Abbas Abbas
- Abbas Khalid
- Abbas Mohammad Monir
- Abbasy Jibran
- Abbosh Ali
- Abd Karim Muhammad Fairuz Shah
- Abd Wahab Haidar Hadri
- Abd Barook
- Abdalei Abdulwahab
- Abdalla Ahmed Elkamel Ahmed
- Abdallah Aya
- AbdAllah Mostafa Salim Mohamed
- Abdel Malik Abu Baker
- Abdelhady Mousa Heba
- Abdelhady Samar
- Abdelhakim Ahmed
- Abdelkader Muhammad
- Abdelkawy Shaza
- Abdelkhalek Mohamed
- Abdellatif Esraa
- Abdelmaksoud Tawakel Noura
- Abdelmohsen Naglaa
- Abdelmotaleb Ibrahem
- Abdelrazek Aly
- Abdelsalam Israa
- Abdelshakour Mahmoud
- Abdelwahed Ahmed Mohamed
- Abdou Abdulrahman Osama
- Abdou Alrawy
- Abdou Hossam
- Abdul Aziz Mohamed Rezal
- Abdul Aziz Nora
- Abdulgawad Almogy Mariam
- Abdulla Mazin A.
- Abdullah Muhammad Tariq
- Abdullahi Lawal
- Abdullayev Seymur
- Abed Saeed
- Abelló David
- Abiola Olajide
- Abo mahadi Asmaa'
- Abo-khammash Areej
- Abou Chaar Mohamad K.
- Abou El.soud Moustafa Ramadan
- Abouelsoad Nervana
- Abraham Joyner
- Abreu da Silva Alberto
- Abu Ahammala Ayman B.
- Abu Al Amrain Mahmoud
- Abu Al-saleem Hasan
- Abu Alamrain Abdulwhhab
- Abu Alqumboz Amjad
- Abu Ataya Ahmed
- Abu hallalah Muad fathi khalleefah
- Abu Jamie Najlaa
- Abu Jayyab Israa
- Abu shua'ib Rana
- Abu Zainah Baraa
- Abu-Nimeh Samar
- Abu-Rous Mohammed R.
- Abu-srour Abrar
- Abuelhatal Hasan
- Abuelqomboz Ayham
- Abuhilal Baseel
- Abuhlaiga Ma'aly
- Abujamra Saleh
- Abukhalaf Sadi A.
- Abusalem Lana
- AbuSirrees Mahmoud
- Acevedo Veronica
- Acharya Rajgopal
- Achkasov Sergey
- Acosta Eric
- Adamo Karin
- Adamou Harissou
- Adams Jamie
- Adams Lawrence
- Adawi Samer
- Adebanjo Ademola
- Adel Marina
- Adel Sawsan
- Ademuyiwa Adesoji
- Ademuyiwa Adesoji O
- Adenuga Adedire
- Aderounmu Adewale
- Adesanya Opeoluwa
- Adesina Alaba
- Adesunkanmi Abdul-Rashid
- Adeyeye Ademola
- Adidharma Peter
- Adisa Adewale
- Adisa Adewale O
- Adnan Nour
- Afifi Amr Abdelghani
- Afifi Eman
- Afolayan Michael Olatunji
- Afzal Asma
- Agarwal Arnav
- Agarwal Raksheeth
- Agbakwuru Augustine
- Agbeko Anita Eseenam
- Aguilar Martinez Maria Del Mar
- Aguilera Maria Lorena
- Aguilera-Arevalo Maria-Lorena
- Ahlqvist Sandra
- Ahmad Izzuddin Ahmad Imran
- Ahmad Kasim
- Ahmad Sarwat
- Ahmed Ahmedgaber
- Ahmed Hazem Abdelkarem
- Ahmed Mariam
- Ahmed Nabila
- Ahmed Zahra
- Ainoa Eppu
- Aithie Joanna M S
- Ajani Costanza
- Ajao Akinlabi
- Ajiboye Anthony
- Ajmera Ankit
- Akande Oluwatosin
- Akaydin Elif
- Akbaba Ata Cem
- Akbar Sana Amir
- Akeel Nouf
- Akeem Aderogba Adeleke
- Akin Alp
- Akinkuolie Akinbolaji
- Akisheva Aygulya
- Akitikori Mabel Temisanren
- Akrida Ioanna
- Aktas Melik Kagan
- Al basos Iyad
- Al Farsi Maryam
- Al Nassrallah Majdi
- Al Sagheir Eman
- Al Saqqa Sara
- Al Saqqa Sara
- Al-Allaf Omar
- Al-Busaidi Ibrahim S.
- Al-Dhufri Ali
- Al-Himyari Hamza S.
- Al-Masri Mahmoud
- Al-Najjar Hani
- Al-Sabbagh Yusra
- Al-Shwaikh Samar
- Al-Slaibi Ibrahim
- Al-Taher Raed
- Al-Tammam Hiba
- Alabuzidi Aya
- Alagha Othman
- Alammarin Mohammad
- Alapatt John
- Alasttal Mohammed
- Alatise Olusegun Isaac
- Albaggar Marwa
- Albahnasawi Moath A.
- Albati Naif
- Alberga Anna
- Alberts Justin
- AlBsoul Ahmad
- Albsoul Nader
- Alcorta Rodrigo
- Alejandre Villalobos Cristina
- Alemdağ Gökçe nur
- Alexander Philip
- Alfarra Nada
- Alfitory Asma
- Alhabil Belal
- Alhaj Ahmad
- Alherz Mohammad
- Alhimyar Maryam
- Ali Ahmad Syed Mustafa
- Ali SANI Samuel
- Ali Amr
- Ali Asmaa
- Ali Mahmoud
- Ali Shabina
- Alimi Marjan
- Aliosin Oleg
- Aliyu Halima
- Aljaafreh Almoutuz
- Aljaber Dana
- Aljaberi Loay
- Aljanfi Asma
- Aljiffry Murad
- Aljohmani Lylas
- Alkhaledi Ahmad
- Alkhatib Ala'a Aldeen
- Alkhatib Haya
- Alkhatib Mo'min
- Allen Ingabire J.C.
- Almasri Murad
- Almeida Braga Sara
- Almeida Filipe
- Almigheerbi Alabas
- Almoqayyad Abdelrahman
- Almuzghi Fakhruddin
- Alnoury Mostafa
- Alonso Batanero Ester
- Alqadi Mohammad
- Alsaid Bayan
- Alsalameh Barah
- Alsallaq Osama
- Alser Osaid
- Alshaar Muhammad
- Alsharef Tagwa
- Alsharqawi Nourah
- Alswerki Mohammad
- Altaf Amna
- Altaf Rabiya
- AlTaweel Mohammed
- Althini Abdulmunem Ahmed Mustafa
- Altibi Ahmed M.
- Altinel Yuksel
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- Essam Ibrahim El Desouki Muhammad Ahmed Muhammad
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- Falato Armando
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- Figueiredo Ana Gabriela
- Finlay Ben
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- Forero-Torres Alexander
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- Foschi Diego
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- Wilson Michael
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- Windsor John
- Wineberg Devorah
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- Winter Des
- Wisal Maham
- Wisselink Daan
- Wogensen Fredrik
- Wondoh Paul M.
- Wong Florence
- Wong Hsu Ven
- Wong Jane J
- Wong Jeremy
- Wong Lai Fen
- Wong Michael Pak-Kai
- Wong Sui-Weng
- Wong Tsz Lun Ernest
- Wood Lauren
- Woon-Shoo-Tong Xiao-Ming Sarah
- Wren Sherry
- Wuraola Funmilola
- Xanthopoulou Georgia
- Yabut Kenneth
- Yacoub Aseel
- Yaghi Nadine
- Yaghi Yasmine
- Yahia Mohamed Ali Mohamed
- Yakushkina Al'ona
- Yalçinkaya Ali
- Yang P Zichu
- Yanikoğlu Erkan
- Yanni Fady
- Yates Charlotte
- Ye Geoffrey
- Yeen Chin Leow
- Yemez Kürşat
- Yenidünya Nilüfer
- Yenli Edwin
- Yeo Jeremy
- Yeoh Andrea
- Yepez Raul
- Yeşilsancak Merve
- Yildirim Reyyan
- Yildiz Alp
- Yilmaz Duygu
- Yip Ching Wan
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- Yong Shun Qi
- Yoong Andrel
- Yorke Joseph
- Yotsov Tsanko
- You Lucia
- Younes Eman
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- Yozgatli Tahir Koray
- Yu Kristin
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- Yunes Asmaa
- Yusuf Baasil
- Yüksel Osman
- Zabiyaka Mikhail
- Zachariah Sanoop Koshy
- Zafar Syed Nabeel
- Zaffaroni Gloria
- Zahra Baryab
- Zahran Diaaaldin
- Zakaria Andee Dzulkarnaen
- Zakaria Mai
- Zakaria Omar
- Zakaria Zaidi
- Zambrana Campos Vanesa
- Zammit Matthew
- Zanini Nicola
- Zara Vlu Jean
- Zarti Heba
- Zarzycki Piotr
- Zattoni Davide
- Zavala Gabriela
- Zawahrah Hassan
- Zeiton Asaid
- Zeko Amanda
- Zeng Zhi
- Zeromskas Paulius
- Zhang Geoffrey
- Zhivkov Evgeni
- Zid Esraa
- Zidan Ahmed Mohy
- Zielasek Christian
- Zilinskas Justas
- Zimmermann Bernd
- Ziprin Paul
- Zizzo Maurizio
- Zografos George
- Zoikas Athanasios
- Zorrilla Matilla Laura Patricia
- Zoulamoglou Menelaos
- Zreeg Dafer
- Zub-Pokrowiecka Anna
- Zubiaurre Vanessa
- Zuhdy Mohammed
- Zuikyte Diana
- Zuloaga Fernandez del Valle Carlos Jose
- Zulu Stanley
- Ângelo Miguel
- Älgå Andreas
- Çolak Elif
- Ümarik Toomas
- Čepuliené Daiva
- Şahin Can
- Šatkauskas Mindaugas
- Škimelytè Monika
- Šlenfuktas Vygintas
- Šuman Oliver
- Žatecký Jan
- Žumbakys Žygimantas
- Župan Domagoj
- Publication venue
- 'Elsevier BV'
- Publication date
- 01/07/2022
- Field of study
© 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licenseBackground: Early death after cancer surgery is higher in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) compared with in high-income countries, yet the impact of facility characteristics on early postoperative outcomes is unknown. The aim of this study was to examine the association between hospital infrastructure, resource availability, and processes on early outcomes after cancer surgery worldwide. Methods: A multimethods analysis was performed as part of the GlobalSurg 3 study—a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study of patients who had surgery for breast, colorectal, or gastric cancer. The primary outcomes were 30-day mortality and 30-day major complication rates. Potentially beneficial hospital facilities were identified by variable selection to select those associated with 30-day mortality. Adjusted outcomes were determined using generalised estimating equations to account for patient characteristics and country-income group, with population stratification by hospital. Findings: Between April 1, 2018, and April 23, 2019, facility-level data were collected for 9685 patients across 238 hospitals in 66 countries (91 hospitals in 20 high-income countries; 57 hospitals in 19 upper-middle-income countries; and 90 hospitals in 27 low-income to lower-middle-income countries). The availability of five hospital facilities was inversely associated with mortality: ultrasound, CT scanner, critical care unit, opioid analgesia, and oncologist. After adjustment for case-mix and country income group, hospitals with three or fewer of these facilities (62 hospitals, 1294 patients) had higher mortality compared with those with four or five (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 3·85 [95% CI 2·58–5·75]; p<0·0001), with excess mortality predominantly explained by a limited capacity to rescue following the development of major complications (63·0% vs 82·7%; OR 0·35 [0·23–0·53]; p<0·0001). Across LMICs, improvements in hospital facilities would prevent one to three deaths for every 100 patients undergoing surgery for cancer. Interpretation: Hospitals with higher levels of infrastructure and resources have better outcomes after cancer surgery, independent of country income. Without urgent strengthening of hospital infrastructure and resources, the reductions in cancer-associated mortality associated with improved access will not be realised. Funding: National Institute for Health and Care Research
The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
- Author
- Aali Amirali
- Ab Khan Moien
- Abbas Qamar
- Abbasi Behzad
- Abbasi-Kangevari Mohsen
- Abbasi-Kangevari Zeinab
- Abbastabar Hedayat
- Abd-Elsalam Sherief
- Abdelmasseh Michael
- Abdelwahab Ahmed Abdelwahab
- Abdoli Gholamreza
- Abdulkader Rizwan Suliankatchi
- Abdulkadir Hanan Abdulkadir
- AbdulmuhsinMohammad Karzan
- Abedi Aidin
- Abegaz Kedir Hussein
- Abidi Hassan
- Aboagye Richard Gyan
- Abolhassani Hassan
- Absalan Abdorrahim
- Abtew Yonas Derso
- Abu-Gharbieh Eman
- Achappa Basavaprabhu
- Acheson Alistair R.
- Acuna Juan Manuel
- Addison Daniel
- Addo Isaac Yeboah
- Adegboye Oyelola A.
- Adesina Miracle Ayomikun
- Adnan Mohammad
- Adnani Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah
- Advani Shailesh M.
- Afrin Sumia
- Afzal Muhammad Sohail
- Aggarwal Manik
- Ahinkorah Bright Opoku
- Ahmad Araz Ramazan
- Ahmad Rizwan
- Ahmad Sohail
- Ahmadi Sepideh
- Ahmed Haroon
- Ahmed Luai A.
- Ahmed Muktar Beshir
- Aiman Wajeeha
- Ajami Marjan
- Akalu Gizachew Taddesse
- Akbarzadeh-Khiavi Mostafa
- Aklilu Addis
- Akonde Maxwell
- Akunna Chisom Joyqueenet
- Al Hamad Hanadi
- Al Montasir Ahmed
- Al-Hanawi Mohammed Khaled
- Al-Maweri Sadeq Ali Ali
- Al-Raddadi Rajaa M.
- Al-Rifai Rami H. Hani
- Al-Sabah Salman Khalifah
- Al-Tammemi Alaa B.
- Alahdab Fares
- Alanezi Fahad Mashhour
- Alanzi Turki M.
- Alessy Saleh Ali
- Algammal Abdelazeem M.
- Alhassan Robert Kaba
- Ali Adel Hajj
- Ali Beriwan Abdulqadir
- Ali Hiwa Abubaker
- Ali Liaqat
- Ali Syed Shujait
- Alimohamadi Yousef
- Alipour Vahid
- Aljunid Syed Mohamed
- Alkhayyat Motasem
- Almustanyir Sami
- Alonso Nivaldo
- Alqalyoobi Shehabaldin
- Altawalah Haya
- Alvis-Guzman Nelson
- Amare Firehiwot
- Ameyaw Edward Kwabena
- Amirzade-Iranaq Mohammad Hosein
- Amu Hubert
- Amusa Ganiyu Adeniyi
- Ancuceanu Robert
- Anderson Jason A.
- Animut Yaregal Animut
- Anoushiravani Amir
- Anoushirvani Ali Arash
- Ansari-Moghaddam Alireza
- Ansha Mustafa Geleto
- Antony Benny
- Antwi Maxwell Hubert
- Anwar Sumadi Lukman
- Anwer Razique
- Anyasodor Anayochukwu Edward
- Arab-Zozani Morteza
- Arabloo Jalal
- Aremu Olatunde
- Argaw Ayele Mamo
- Ariffin Hany
- Aripov Timur
- Arshad Muhammad
- Artaman Al
- Arulappan Judie
- Aruleba Raphael Taiwo
- Aryannejad Armin
- Asaad Malke
- Asemahagn Mulusew A.
- Asemi Zatollah
- Asghari-Jafarabadi Mohammad
- Ashraf Tahira
- Assadi Reza
- Athar Mohammad
- Athari Seyyed Shamsadin
- Attia Sameh
- Aujayeb Avinash
- Ausloos Marcel
- Avila-Burgos Leticia
- Avval Atlas Haddadi
- Awedew Atalel Fentahun
- Awoke Mamaru Ayenew
- Awoke Tewachew
- Ayana Tegegn Mulatu
- Ayen Solomon Shitu
- Azadi Davood
- Azami-Aghdash Saber
- Azanaw Melkalem Mamuye
- Azangou-Khyavy Mohammadreza
- Azizi Hosein
- Azzam Ahmed Y. Y.
- Babajani Amirhesam
- Badar Muhammad
- Badiye Ashish D.
- Baghcheghi Nayereh
- Bagheri Nader
- Bagherieh Sara
- Bahadory Saeed
- Baig Atif Amin
- Bain Luchuo Engelbert
- Baker Jennifer L.
- Bakhtiari Ahad
- Bakshi Ravleen Kaur
- Banach Maciej
- Banerjee Indrajit
- Bardhan Mainak
- Barone-Adesi Francesco
- Barra Fabio
- Barrow Amadou
- Bashir Nasir Z.
- Bashiri Azadeh
- Basu Saurav
- Batiha Abdul-Monim Mohammad
- Begum Aeysha
- Bekele Alehegn Bekele
- Belay Alemayehu Sayih
- Belete Melaku Ashagrie
- Belgaumi Uzma Iqbal
- Bell Arielle Wilder
- Belo Luis
- Benzian Habib
- Berhie Alemshet Yirga
- Bermudez Amiel Nazer C.
- Bernabe Eduardo
- Bhagavathula Akshaya Srikanth
- Bhala Neeraj
- Bhandari Bharti Bhandari
- Bhardwaj Nikha
- Bhardwaj Pankaj
- Bhattacharyya Krittika
- Bhojaraja Vijayalakshmi S.
- Bhuyan Soumitra S.
- Bibi Sadia
- Bicer Burcu Kucuk
- Bilchut Awraris Hailu
- Bintoro Bagas Suryo
- Biondi Antonio
- Birega Mesfin Geremaw Birega
- Birhan Habitu Eshetu
- Bjorge Tone
- Blyuss Oleg
- Bodicha Belay Boda Abule
- Bohan Phillip M. Kemp
- Bolla Srinivasa Rao
- Boloor Archith
- Bosetti Cristina
- Braithwaite Dejana
- Brauer Michael
- Brenner Hermann
- Briko Andrey Nikolaevich
- Briko Nikolay Ivanovich
- Buchanan Christina Maree
- Bulamu Norma B.
- Bustamante-Teixeira Maria Teresa
- Butt Muhammad Hammad
- Butt Nadeem Shafique
- Butt Zahid A.
- Caetano dos Santos Florentino Luciano
- Camera Luis Alberto
- Cao Chao
- Cao Yin
- Carreras Giulia
- Carvalho Marcia
- Cembranel Francieli
- Cerin Ester
- Chakraborty Promit Ananyo
- Chandrasekar Viveksandeep Thoguluva
- Charalampous Periklis
- Chattu Vijay Kumar
- Chimed-Ochir Odgerel
- Chirinos-Caceres Jesus Lorenzo
- Cho Daniel Youngwhan
- Cho William C. S.
- Christopher Devasahayam J.
- Chu Dinh-Toi
- Chukwu Isaac Sunday
- Cohen Aaron J.
- Compton Kelly
- Conde Joao
- Cortas Sandra
- Costa Vera Marisa
- Cruz-Martins Natalia
- Culbreth Garland T.
- Dadras Omid
- Dagnaw Fentaw Teshome
- Dahlawi Saad M. A.
- Dai Xiaochen
- Dandona Lalit
- Dandona Rakhi
- Daneshpajouhnejad Parnaz
- Danielewicz Anna
- Dao An Thi Minh
- Darwesh Aso Mohammad
- Das Saswati
- Davitoiu Dragos Virgil
- De la Hoz Fernando Pio
- Debela Sisay Abebe
- Dehghan Azizallah
- Dehkordi Javad Javad Aminian
- Demisse Biniyam
- Demisse Fitsum Wolde
- DenovaGutiA Edgar
- Derakhshani Afshin
- Dereje Diriba
- Deribe Kalkidan Solomon
- Desai Rupak
- Desalegn Markos Desalegn
- Desideri Lorenzo Ferro
- Dessalegn Fikadu Nugusu
- Dessalegni Samuel Abebe A.
- Dessie Gashaw
- Desta Abebaw Alemayehu
- Dewan Syed Masudur Rahman
- Dharmaratne Samath Dhamminda
- Dhimal Meghnath
- Dianatinasab Mostafa
- Diao Nancy
- Diaz Daniel
- Digesa Lankamo Ena
- Dixit Shilpi Gupta
- Doaei Saeid
- Doan Linh Phuong
- Doku Paul Narh
- Dongarwar Deepa
- dos Santos Wendel Mombaque
- Driscoll Tim Robert
- Dsouza Haneil Larson
- Durojaiye Oyewole Christopher
- Edalati Sareh
- Eghbalian Fatemeh
- Ehsani-Chimeh Elham
- Eini Ebrahim
- Ekerija Mario A.
- Ekholuenetale Michael
- Ekundayo Temitope Cyrus
- Ekwueme Donatus U.
- El Tantawi Maha
- El-Huneidi Waseem
- Elbahnasawy Mostafa Ahmed
- Elbarazi Iffat
- Elghazaly Hesham
- Elhadi Muhammed
- Emamian Mohammad Hassan
- Enyew Daniel Berhanie
- Erkhembayar Ryenchindorj
- Eshetu Tegegne
- Eshrati Babak
- Eskandarieh Sharareh
- Esmaeili Elham Davtalab
- Espinosa-Montero Juan
- Etaee Farshid
- Etemadimanesh Azin
- Eyayu Tahir
- Ezeonwumelu Ifeanyi Jude
- Ezzikouri Sayeh
- Fagbamigbe Adeniyi Francis
- Fahimi Saman
- Fakhradiyev Ildar Ravisovich
- Faraon Emerito Jose A.
- Fares Jawad
- Farmany Abbas
- Farooque Umar
- Farrokhpour Hossein
- Fasanmi Abidemi Omolara
- Fatehizadeh Ali
- Fatima Wafa
- Fattahi Hamed
- Fekadu Ginenus
- Feleke Berhanu Elfu
- Ferrari Allegra Allegra
- Ferrero Simone
- Filip Irina
- Fischer Florian
- Fonseca Mariana Gaspar
- Force Lisa M.
- Foroumadi Roham
- Foroutan Masoud
- Fukumoto Takeshi
- Gaal Peter Andras
- Gad Mohamed M.
- Gadanya Muktar A.
- Gaipov Abduzhappar
- Galehdar Nasrin
- Gallus Silvano
- Garg Tushar
- Gebremariam Yosef Haile
- Gebremeskel Teferi Gebru
- Gebremichael Mathewos Alemu
- Geda Yohannes Fikadu
- Gela Yibeltal Yismaw
- Gemeda Belete Negese Belete
- Getachew Melaku
- Getachew Motuma Erena
- Ghaffari Kazem
- Ghafourifard Mansour
- Ghamari Seyyed-Hadi
- Ghassemi Fariba
- Ghimire Ajnish
- Ghith Nermin
- Gholamalizadeh Maryam
- Ghozy Sherief
- Gilani Syed Amir
- Gill Paramjit Singh
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- Tabatabaei Seyyed Mohammad
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- Tadbiri Hooman
- Tahbaz Sahel Valadan
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- Tat Vivian Y.
- Tavakoli Arash
- Tehrani-Banihashemi Arash
- Tekalegn Yohannes
- Tesfay Fisaha Haile
- Thapar Rekha
- Thavamani Aravind
- Thomas Nihal
- Thomas Nikhil Kenny
- Ticoalu Jansje Henny Vera
- Tiyuri Amir
- Tollosa Daniel Nigusse
- Topor-Madry Roman
- Toroudi Hamidreza Pazoki
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- Tovani-Palone Marcos Roberto
- Traini Eugenio
- Tran Khanh Bao
- Tran Mai Thi Ngoc
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- Ukke Gebresilasea Gendisha
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- Ullah Sana
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- Vaezi Maryam
- Valdez Pascual R.
- Vardavas Constantine
- Varniab Zahra Shokri
- Varthya Shoban Babu
- Vaziri Siavash
- Velazquez Diana Zuleika
- Veroux Massimiliano
- Villeneuve Paul J.
- Violante Francesco S.
- Vladimirov Sergey Konstantinovitch
- Vlassov Vasily
- Vo Bay
- Vos Theo
- Vu Linh Gia
- Wadood Abdul Wadood
- Waheed Yasir
- Walde Mandaras Tariku
- Wamai Richard G.
- Wang Cong
- Wang Fang
- Wang Ning
- Wang Yu
- Ward Paul
- Waris Abdul
- Westerman Ronny
- Wickramasinghe Nuwan Darshana
- Woldemariam Melat
- Woldu Berhanu
- Xiao Hong
- Xu Rixing
- Xu Suowen
- Xu Xiaoyue
- Yadav Lalit
- Yang Lin
- Yazdanpanah Fereshteh
- Yeshaw Yigizie
- Yismaw Yazachew
- Yonemoto Naohiro
- Younis Mustafa Z.
- Yousefi Zabihollah
- Yousefian Fatemeh
- Yu Chuanhua
- Yu Yong
- Yunusa Ismaeel
- Zahir Mazyar
- Zaki Nazar
- Zaman Burhan Abdullah
- Zangiabadian Moein
- Zare Fariba
- Zare Iman
- Zareshahrabadi Zahra
- Zarrintan Armin
- Zastrozhin Mikhail Sergeevich
- Zeineddine Mohammad A.
- Zhang Dongyu
- Zhang Jianrong
- Zhang Yunquan
- Zhang Zhi-Jiang
- Zhou Linghui
- Zodpey Sanjay
- Zoladl Mohammad
- Publication venue
- ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
- Publication date
- 01/08/2022
- Field of study
Background Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4.45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4.01-4.94) deaths and 105 million (95.0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44.4% (41.3-48.4) of all cancer deaths and 42.0% (39.1-45.6) of all DALYs. There were 2.88 million (2.60-3.18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50.6% 47.8-54.1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1.58 million (1.36-1.84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36.3% 32.5-41.3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20.4% (12.6-28.4) and DALYs by 16.8% (8.8-25.0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34.7% 27.9-42.8] and 33.3% 25.8-42.0]). Interpretation The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
- Author
- Aali Amirali
- Abbafati Cristiana
- Abbas Jaffar
- Abbasgholizadeh Rouzbeh
- Abbasi Madineh Akram
- Abbasian Mohammadreza
- Abd ElHafeez Samar
- Abd-Elsalam Sherief
- Abdelmasseh Michael
- Abdelwahab Ahmed
- Abdollahi Mohammad
- Abdoun Meriem
- Abdullahi Auwal
- Abdurehman Ame Mehadi
- Abebe Mesfin
- Abedi Aidin
- Abedi Armita
- Abegaz Tadesse M
- Abeldaño Zuñiga Roberto Ariel
- Abhilash E S
- Abiodun Olugbenga Olusola
- Aboagye Richard Gyan
- Abolhassani Hassan
- Abouzid Mohamed
- Abreu Lucas Guimarães
- Abrha Woldu Aberhe
- Abrigo Michael R M
- Abtahi Dariush
- Abu Rumeileh Samir
- Abu-Rmeileh Niveen ME
- Abu-Zaid Ahmed
- Aburuz Salahdein
- Acuna Juan Manuel
- Adair Tim
- Addo Isaac Yeboah
- Adebayo Oladimeji M
- Adegboye Oyelola A
- Adekanmbi Victor
- Aden Bashir
- Adepoju Abiola Victor
- Adetunji Charles Oluwaseun
- Adeyeoluwa Temitayo Esther
- Adeyomoye Olorunsola Israel
- Adha Rishan
- Adibi Amin
- Adikusuma Wirawan
- Adnani Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah
- Adra Saryia
- Afework Abel
- Afolabi Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika
- Afraz Ali
- Afyouni Shadi
- Afzal Saira
- Agasthi Pradyumna
- Aghamiri Shahin
- Agodi Antonella
- Agyemang-Duah Williams
- Ahinkorah Bright Opoku
- Ahmad Aqeel
- Ahmad Danish
- Ahmad Firdos
- Ahmad Muayyad M
- Ahmad Tauseef
- Ahmadi Keivan
- Ahmadzade Amir Mahmoud
- Ahmadzade Mohadese
- Ahmed Ayman
- Ahmed Haroon
- Ahmed Luai A
- Ahmed Muktar Beshir
- Ahmed Syed Anees
- Ajami Marjan
- Aji Budi
- Ajumobi Olufemi
- Akalu Gizachew Taddesse
- Akara Essona Matatom
- Akinosoglou Karolina
- Akkala Sreelatha
- Akyirem Samuel
- Al Hamad Hanadi
- Al Hasan Syed Mahfuz
- Al Homsi Ammar
- Al Qadire Mohammad
- AL-Ahdal Tareq Mohammed Ali
- Al-Aly Ziyad
- Al-amer Rasmieh Mustafa
- Al-Eyadhy Ayman
- Al-Gheethi Adel Ali Saeed
- Al-Hanawi Mohammed Khaled
- Al-Jumaily Adel
- Al-Marwani Sabah
- Al-Maweri Sadeq Ali Ali
- Al-Mekhlafi Hesham M
- Al-Sabah Salman Khalifah
- Al-Tawfiq Jaffar A
- Al-Worafi Yaser Mohammed
- Ala Moein
- Aladelusi Timothy Olukunle
- Alalalmeh Samer O
- Alam Khurshid
- Alam Manjurul
- Alam Zufishan
- Alanezi Fahad Mashhour
- Alanzi Turki M
- Albashtawy Mohammed
- AlBataineh Mohammad T
- Aldridge Robert W
- Alemi Sharifullah
- Alhabib Khalid F
- Alhalaiqa Fadwa Alhalaiqa Naji
- Ali Abid
- Ali Akhtar
- Ali Beriwan Abdulqadir
- Ali Hassam
- Ali Mohammed Usman
- Ali Rafat
- Ali Syed Shujait Shujait
- Ali Zahid
- Alian Samakkhah Shohreh
- Alicandro Gianfranco
- Alif Sheikh Mohammad
- Aligol Mohammad
- Alimi Rasoul
- Aliyi Ahmednur Adem
- Aljunid Syed Mohamed
- Almahmeed Wael
- Almazan Joseph Uy
- Almidani Omar
- Alomari Mahmoud A
- Alonso Nivaldo
- Alqahtani Jaber S
- Alqutaibi Ahmed Yaseen
- Altaf Awais
- Altirkawi Khalid A
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- Valadan Tahbaz Sahel
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- Venketasubramanian Narayanaswamy
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- Weiss Daniel J
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- Werdecker Andrea
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- Wickramasinghe Dakshitha Praneeth
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- Xiao Hong
- Xu Bin
- Xu Xiaoyue
- Yadav Lalit
- Yaghoubi Sajad
- Yang Lin
- Yano Yuichiro
- Yao Yao
- Ye Pengpeng
- Yesera Gesila Endashaw
- Yesodharan Renjulal
- Yesuf Subah Abderehim
- Yip Paul
- Yiğit Arzu
- Yiğit Vahit
- Yon Dong Keon
- Yonemoto Naohiro
- You Yuyi
- Younis Mustafa Z
- Yu Chuanhua
- Zadey Siddhesh
- Zadnik Vesna
- Zafari Nima
- Zahedi Mohammad
- Zahid Muhammad Nauman
- Zahir Mazyar
- Zakham Fathiah
- Zaki Nazar
- Zakzuk Josefina
- Zamagni Giulia
- Zaman Burhan Abdullah
- Zaman Sojib Bin
- Zamora Nelson
- Zand Ramin
- Zandi Milad
- Zandieh Ghazal G Z
- Zanghì Aurora
- Zare Iman
- Zastrozhin Mikhail Sergeevich
- Zeariya Mohammed G M
- Zeng Youjie
- Zhai Chunxia
- Zhang Chen
- Zhang Haijun
- Zhang Hongwei
- Zhang Yunquan
- Zhang Zhaofeng
- Zhang Zhenyu
- Zhao Hanqing
- Zhao Yang
- Zhao Yong
- Zheng Peng
- Zhong Chenwen
- Zhou Juexiao
- Zhu Bin
- Zhu Zhaohua
- Ziaeefar Pardis
- Zielińska Magdalena
- Zou Zhiyong
- Zumla Alimuddin
- Zweck Elric
- Zyoud Samer H
- Šekerija Mario
- Publication venue
- Elsevier
- Publication date
- 01/03/2024
- Field of study
BackgroundEstimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period.Methods22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.FindingsGlobal all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.InterpretationGlobal adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic
Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
- Author
- Aali Amirali
- Ababneh Hazim S
- Abate Yohannes Habtegiorgis
- Abbafati Cristiana
- Abbasgholizadeh Rouzbeh
- Abbasi-Kangevari Mohsen
- Abbasian Mohammadreza
- Abbastabar Hedayat
- Abd ElHafeez Samar
- Abd-Elsalam Sherief
- Abdelmasseh Michael
- Abdelwahab Ahmed
- Abdollahi Mohammad
- Abdollahifar Mohammad-Amin
- Abdoun Meriem
- Abdulah Deldar Morad
- Abdullahi Auwal
- Abebe Mesfin
- Abebe Samrawit Shawel
- Abedi Aidin
- Abegaz Kedir Hussein
- Abhilash E S
- Abidi Hassan
- Abiodun Olumide
- Aboagye Richard Gyan
- Abolhassani Hassan
- Abolmaali Meysam
- Abouzid Mohamed
- Aboye Girma Beressa
- Abreu Lucas Guimarães
- Abrha Woldu Aberhe
- Abtahi Dariush
- Abu Rumeileh Samir
- Abu-Gharbieh Eman
- Abu-Rmeileh Niveen ME
- Abu-Zaid Ahmed
- Abualruz Hasan
- Abubakar Bilyaminu
- Aburuz Salahdein
- Accrombessi Manfred Mario Kokou
- Adal Tadele Girum
- Adamu Abdu A
- Addo Isaac Yeboah
- Addolorato Giovanni
- Adebiyi Akindele Olupelumi
- Adekanmbi Victor
- Adepoju Abiola Victor
- Adetunji Charles Oluwaseun
- Adetunji Juliana Bunmi
- Adeyeoluwa Temitayo Esther
- Adeyinka Daniel Adedayo
- Adeyomoye Olorunsola Israel
- Admass Biruk Adie Adie
- Adnani Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah
- Adra Saryia
- Afolabi Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika
- Afzal Muhammad Sohail
- Afzal Saira
- Agampodi Suneth Buddhika
- Agasthi Pradyumna
- Aggarwal Manik
- Aghamiri Shahin
- Agide Feleke Doyore
- Agodi Antonella
- Agrawal Anurag
- Agyemang-Duah Williams
- Ahinkorah Bright Opoku
- Ahmad Aqeel
- Ahmad Danish
- Ahmad Firdos
- Ahmad Muayyad M
- Ahmad Sajjad
- Ahmad Shahzaib
- Ahmad Tauseef
- Ahmadi Keivan
- Ahmadzade Amir Mahmoud
- Ahmed Ali
- Ahmed Ayman
- Ahmed Haroon
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- Ahmed Mehrunnisha Sharif
- Ahmed Meqdad Saleh
- Ahmed Muktar Beshir
- Ahmed Syed Anees
- Ajami Marjan
- Aji Budi
- Akara Essona Matatom
- Akbarialiabad Hossein
- Akinosoglou Karolina
- Akinyemiju Tomi
- Akkaif Mohammed Ahmed
- Akyirem Samuel
- Al Hamad Hanadi
- Al Hasan Syed Mahfuz
- Al-Aly Ziyad
- Al-amer Rasmieh Mustafa
- Al-Azzam Sayer
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- Starodubova Antonina V
- Stein Caroline
- Stein Dan J
- Steinbeis Fridolin
- Steiner Caitlyn
- Steinmetz Jaimie D
- Steiropoulos Paschalis
- Stevanović Aleksandar
- Stockfelt Leo
- Stokes Mark A
- Stortecky Stefan
- Subramaniyan Vetriselvan
- Suleman Muhammad
- Suliankatchi Abdulkader Rizwan
- Sultana Abida
- Sun Haitong Zhe
- Sun Jing
- Sundström Johan
- Sunkersing David
- Sunnerhagen Katharina S
- Swain Chandan Kumar
- Szarpak Lukasz
- Szeto Mindy D
- Szócska Miklós
- Tabaee Damavandi Payam
- Tabarés-Seisdedos Rafael
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- Tabatabaei Seyyed Mohammad
- Tabatabaeizadeh Seyed-Amir
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- TADAKAMADLA JYOTHI
- Tadakamadla Santosh Kumar
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- Takahashi Ken
- Talaat Iman M
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- Tang Haosu
- Tang Hong K
- Tarigan Ingan Ukur
- Tariku Mengistie Kassahun
- Tariqujjaman Md
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- Tavakoli Oliaee Razieh
- Tavangar Seyed Mohammad
- Taveira Nuno
- Tefera Yibekal Manaye
- Temsah Mohamad-Hani
- Temsah Reem Mohamad Hani
- Teramoto Masayuki
- Tesler Riki
- Teye-Kwadjo Enoch
- Thakur Rishu
- Thangaraju Pugazhenthan
- Thankappan Kavumpurathu Raman
- Tharwat Samar
- Thayakaran Rasiah
- Thomas Nihal
- Thomas Nikhil Kenny
- Thomson Azalea M
- Thrift Amanda G
- Thum Chern Choong Chern
- Thygesen Lau Caspar
- Tian Jing
- Tichopad Ales
- Ticoalu Jansje Henny Vera
- Tillawi Tala
- Tiruye Tenaw Yimer
- Titova Mariya Vladimirovna
- Tonelli Marcello
- Topor-Madry Roman
- Toriola Adetunji T
- Torre Anna E
- Touvier Mathilde
- Tovani-Palone Marcos Roberto
- Tran Jasmine T
- Tran Nghia Minh
- Trico Domenico
- Tromans Samuel Joseph
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- Tsegay Guesh Mebrahtom
- Tsermpini Evangelia Eirini
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- Udoakang Aniefiok John
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- Ullah Irfan
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- Usman Jibrin Sammani
- Vahabi Seyed Mohammad
- Vaithinathan Asokan Govindaraj
- Valizadeh Rohollah
- Van de Velde Sarah M
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- Verras Georgios-Ioannis
- Vervoort Dominique
- Villafañe Jorge Hugo
- Villanueva Gabriela Ines
- Vinayak Manish
- Violante Francesco S
- Viskadourou Maria
- Vladimirov Sergey Konstantinovitch
- Vlassov Vasily
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- Vollset Stein Emil
- Vongpradith Avina
- Vos Theo
- Vujcic Isidora S
- Vukovic Rade
- Wafa Hatem A
- Waheed Yasir
- Wamai Richard G
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- Wang Ning
- Wang Shu
- Wang Song
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- Wang Yuan-Pang
- Waqas Muhammad
- Ward Paul
- Wassie Emebet Gashaw
- Watson Stefanie
- Watson Stephanie Louise Watson
- Weerakoon Kosala Gayan
- Wei Melissa Y
- Weintraub Robert G
- Weiss Daniel J
- Westerman Ronny
- Whisnant Joanna L
- Wiangkham Taweewat
- Wickramasinghe Dakshitha Praneeth
- Wickramasinghe Nuwan Darshana
- Wilandika Angga
- Wilkerson Caroline
- Willeit Peter
- Wilson Shadrach
- Wojewodzic Marcin W
- Woldegebreal Demewoz H
- Wolf Axel Walter
- Wolfe Charles D A
- Wondimagegene Yohannes Addisu
- Wong Yen Jun
- Wongsin Utoomporn
- Wool Eve E
- Wu Ai-Min
- Wu Chenkai
- Wu Felicia
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- Wu Zenghong
- Xia Juan
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- Xu Yvonne Yiru
- Yadollahpour Ali
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- Yang Danting
- Yang Lin
- Yano Yuichiro
- Yao Yao
- Yaribeygi Habib
- Ye Pengpeng
- Yehualashet Sisay Shewasinad
- Yesiltepe Metin
- Yesuf Subah Abderehim
- Yezli Saber
- Yi Siyan
- Yigezu Amanuel
- Yip Paul
- Yismaw Malede Berihun
- Yismaw Yazachew
- Yiğit Arzu
- Yiğit Vahit
- Yon Dong Keon
- Yonemoto Naohiro
- Yoon Seok-Jun
- You Yuyi
- Younis Mustafa Z
- Yousefi Zabihollah
- Yu Chuanhua
- Yu Yong
- Yuh Faith H
- Zadey Siddhesh
- Zadnik Vesna
- Zafari Nima
- Zakham Fathiah
- Zaki Nazar
- Zaman Sojib Bin
- Zamora Nelson
- Zand Ramin
- Zangiabadian Moein
- Zar Heather J
- Zare Iman
- Zarrintan Armin
- Zeariya Mohammed G M
- Zeinali Zahra
- Zhang Haijun
- Zhang Jianrong
- Zhang Jingya
- Zhang Liqun
- Zhang Yunquan
- Zhang Zhi-Jiang
- Zhao Hanqing
- Zhong Chenwen
- Zhou Juexiao
- Zhu Bin
- Zhu Lei
- Ziafati Makan
- Zielińska Magdalena
- Zitoun Osama A
- Zoladl Mohammad
- Zou Zhiyong
- Zuhlke Liesl J
- Zumla Alimuddin
- Zweck Elric
- Zyoud Samer H
- Ärnlöv Johan
- Šekerija Mario
- Publication venue
- Elsevier
- Publication date
- 01/04/2024
- Field of study
BackgroundRegular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.MethodsThe Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model—a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates—with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality—which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.FindingsThe leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2–100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1–290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1–211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4–48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3–37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7–9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.InterpretationLong-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere