A novel probabilistic risk analysis to determine the vulnerability of ecosystems to extreme climatic events

We present a simple method of probabilistic risk analysis for ecosystems. The only requirements are time series—modelled or measured—of environment and ecosystem variables. Risk is defined as the product of hazard probability and ecosystem vulnerability. Vulnerability is the expected difference in ecosystem performance between years with and without hazardous conditions. We show an application to drought risk for net primary productivity of coniferous forests across Europe, for both recent and future climatic conditions

Investigation of global aerosol regime developments from pre-industrial times to the future

The temporal development of the global distribution of aerosol regimes, i.e. areas of specific aerosol characteristics, is investigated based on global aerosol simulations performed for six time slices, including pre-industrial (1750, 1850) and present-day conditions (2015), as well as future (2050) following the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP3-7.0, SSP2-4.5 and SSP1-1.9. The aerosol characteristics are evaluated in terms of aerosol regimes by combining the information about multiple aerosol properties within a cluster analysis. The present-day case serves as a reference where aerosol regimes are identified via the unsupervised machine learning technique K-means. In addition, a supervised machine learning technique (Random Forest) is applied on the basis of the aerosol regime classification criteria gained from the reference case. This allows for a consistent identification of comparable aerosol regimes across the different time slices. With this approach we analyze, for instance, which present-day aerosol regimes could have been present in the past and how they might develop in the future. These analyses are conducted for three atmospheric altitude layers with a special focus on the lower troposphere. After conducting a primary classification, we also implement a secondary sub-classification to assess the fine structure of the identified primary regimes. The results are further complemented by an in-depth analysis of the emissions of primary aerosol species and aerosol precursor gases for the different time slices in selected regions, including information about the respective contributions from different emission sectors. Details will be presented on a poster

Comparison of Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Viruses from Germany and the United States, 2014

Since 2013, highly virulent porcine epidemic diarrhea virus has caused considerable economic losses in the United States. To determine the relation of US strains to those recently causing disease in Germany, we compared genomes and found that the strain from Germany is closely related to variants in the United States

Pyrazinamide resistance-conferring mutations in pncA and the transmission of multidrug resistant TB in Georgia.

BACKGROUND: The ongoing epidemic of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) in Georgia highlights the need for more effective control strategies. A new regimen to treat MDR-TB that includes pyrazinamide (PZA) is currently being evaluated and PZA resistance status will largely influence the success of current and future treatment strategies. PZA susceptibility testing was not routinely performed at the National Reference Laboratory (NRL) in Tbilisi between 2010 and September 2015. We here provide a first insight into the prevalence of PZA resistant TB in this region. METHODS: Phenotypic susceptibility to PZA was determined in a convenience collection of well-characterised TB patient isolates collected at the NRL in Tbilisi between 2012 and 2013. In addition, the pncA gene was sequenced and whole genome sequencing was performed on two isolates. RESULTS: Out of 57 isolates tested 33 (57.9%) showed phenotypic drug resistance to PZA and had a single pncA mutation. All of these 33 isolates were MDR-TB strains. pncA mutations were absent in all but one of the 24 PZA susceptible isolate. In total we found 18 polymorphisms in the pncA gene. From the two major MDR-TB clusters represented (94-32 and 100-32), 10 of 15, 67.0% and 13 of 14, 93.0% strains, respectively were PZA resistant. We also identified a member of the potentially highly transmissive clade A strain carrying the characteristic I6L substitution in PncA. Another strain with the same MLVA type as the clade A strain acquired a different mutation in pncA and was genetically more distantly related suggesting that different branches of this particular lineage have been introduced into this region. CONCLUSION: In this high MDR-TB setting more than half of the tested MDR-TB isolates were resistant to PZA. As PZA is part of current and planned MDR-TB treatment regimens this is alarming and deserves the attention of health authorities. Based on our typing and sequence analysis results we conclude that PZA resistance is the result of primary transmission as well as acquisition within the patient and recommend prospective genotyping and PZA resistance testing in high MDR-TB settings. This is of utmost importance in order to preserve bacterial susceptibility to PZA to help protect (new) second line drugs in PZA containing regimens

Pathogenicity of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus (H5N1) in Adult Mute Swans

Adult, healthy mute swans were experimentally infected with highly pathogenic avian influenza virus A/Cygnus cygnus/Germany/R65/2006 subtype H5N1. Immunologically naive birds died, whereas animals with preexisting, naturally acquired avian influenza virus–specific antibodies became infected asymptomatically and shed virus. Adult mute swans are highly susceptible, excrete virus, and can be clinically protected by preexposure immunity

Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle : concepts, processes and potential future impacts

This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. Acknowledgements This work emerged from the CARBO-Extreme project, funded by the European Community’s 7th framework programme under grant agreement (FP7-ENV-2008-1-226701). We are grateful to the Reviewers and the Subject Editor for helpful guidance. We thank to Silvana Schott for graphic support. Mirco Miglivacca provided helpful comments on the manuscript. Michael Bahn acknowledges support from the Austrian Science Fund (FWF; P22214-B17). Sara Vicca is a postdoctoral research associate of the Fund for Scientific Research – Flanders. Wolfgang Cramer contributes to the Labex OT-Med (n° ANR-11- LABX-0061) funded by the French government through the A*MIDEX project (n° ANR-11-IDEX-0001-02). Flurin Babst acknowledges support from the Swiss National Science Foundation (P300P2_154543).Peer reviewedPublisher PD

4D perfusion CT of prostate cancer for image-guided radiotherapy planning: A proof of concept study.

PURPOSE: Advanced forms of prostate cancer (PCa) radiotherapy with either external beam therapy or brachytherapy delivery techniques aim for a focal boost and thus require accurate lesion localization and lesion segmentation for subsequent treatment planning. This study prospectively evaluated dynamic contrast-enhanced computed tomography (DCE-CT) for the detection of prostate cancer lesions in the peripheral zone (PZ) using qualitative and quantitative image analysis compared to multiparametric magnet resonance imaging (mpMRI) of the prostate. METHODS: With local ethics committee approval, 14 patients (mean age, 67 years; range, 57-78 years; PSA, mean 8.1 ng/ml; range, 3.5-26.0) underwent DCE-CT, as well as mpMRI of the prostate, including standard T2, diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI), and DCE-MRI sequences followed by transrectal in-bore MRI-guided prostate biopsy. Maximum intensity projections (MIP) and DCE-CT perfusion parameters (CTP) were compared between healthy and malignant tissue. Two radiologists independently rated image quality and the tumor lesion delineation quality of PCa using a five-point ordinal scale. MIP and CTP were compared using visual grading characteristics (VGC) and receiver operating characteristics (ROC)/area under the curve (AUC) analysis. RESULTS: The PCa detection rate ranged between 57 to 79% for the two readers for DCE-CT and was 92% for DCE-MRI. DCE-CT perfusion parameters in PCa tissue in the PZ were significantly different compared to regular prostate tissue and benign lesions. Image quality and lesion visibility were comparable between DCE-CT and DCE-MRI (VGC: AUC 0.612 and 0.651, p>0.05). CONCLUSION: Our preliminary results suggest that it is feasible to use DCE-CT for identification and visualization, and subsequent segmentation for focal radiotherapy approaches to PCa

Standard for Synthesis of Customized Peptides by Non-Ribosomal Peptide Synthetases

The purpose of this RFC is to introduce a standardized framework for the engineering of customizable non-ribosomal peptide synthetases (NRPS) and their application for in vivo and in vitro synthesis of short non-ribosomal peptides (NRPs) of user-defined sequence and structure