From core collapse to superluminous: The rates of massive stellar explosions from the Palomar Transient Factory

We present measurements of the local core-collapse supernova (CCSN) rate using SN discoveries from the Palomar Transient Factory (PTF). We use a Monte Carlo simulation of hundreds of millions of SN light-curve realizations coupled with the detailed PTF survey detection efficiencies to forward model the SN rates in PTF. Using a sample of 86 CCSNe, including 26 stripped-envelope SNe (SESNe), we show that the overall CCSN volumetric rate is CCv=9.10-1.27+1.56× 10-5SNe yr-1Mpc-3, h703 at za = 0.028, and the SESN volumetric rate is SEv=2.41-0.64+0.81× 10-5SNe yr-1Mpc-3, h703. We further measure a volumetric rate for hydrogen-free superluminous SNe (SLSNe-I) using eight events at z ≤ 0.2 of SLSN-Iv=35-13+25 SNe yr-1Gpc-3, h703, which represents the most precise SLSN-I rate measurement to date. Using a simple cosmic star formation history to adjust these volumetric rate measurements to the same redshift, we measure a local ratio of SLSN-I to SESN of ∼1/810+1500-94, and of SLSN-I to all CCSN types of ∼1/3500+2800-720. However, using host galaxy stellar mass as a proxy for metallicity, we also show that this ratio is strongly metallicity dependent: in low-mass (logM∗ < 9.5 M·) galaxies, which are the only environments that host SLSN-I in our sample, we measure an SLSN-I to SESN fraction of 1/300+380-170 and 1/1700+1800-720 for all CCSN. We further investigate the SN rates a function of host galaxy stellar mass, and show that the specific rates of all CCSNe decrease with increasing stellar mass

Gravitational deflection of light in Rindler-type potential as a possible resolution to the observations of Bullet Cluster 1E0657-558

The surface density $\Sigma$-map and the convergence $\kappa$-map of Bullet Cluster 1E0657-558 show that the center of baryonic matters separates from the center of gravitational force, and the distribution of gravitational force do not possess spherical symmetry. This hints that a modified gravity with difference to Newtonian inverse-square law at large scale, and less symmetry is worth investigating. In this paper, we study the dynamics in Randers-Finsler spacetime. The Newtonian limit and gravitational deflection of light in a Rindler-type potential is focused in particular. It is shown that the convergence in Finsler spacetime could account for the observations of Bullet Cluster.Comment: 11 page

Middle to late Pleistocene palaeoecological reconstructions and palaeotemperature estimates for cold/cool stage deposits at Whittlesey, eastern England

Fossiliferous beds in a complex sequence of late Middle to Late Pleistocene deposits at Whittlesey, eastern England, provided a rare opportunity for a multidisciplinary study of the palaeoecology of cool/cold stage deposits from different glacial stages. The fossiliferous sediments investigated form part of the River Nene 1st Terrace. Three of the four fossil assemblages investigated pre-date the last interglacial stage (Ipswichian/Eemian/marine oxygen isotope stage (MIS) 5e), whereas the other dates to part of the MIS 3 interstadial complex (Middle Devensian/Weichselian). Pollen, plant macrofossil, molluscan, coleopteran, ostracod, foraminifera and vertebrate data are available to a greater or lesser extent for each cool/cold stage assemblage, and they broadly present the same ecological picture for each one: a continuum from low-energy permanent to non-permanent aquatic habitats through marshland with associated waterside taxa, together with flood influxes of fluvial, riparian and ruderal taxa. Although each fossil assemblage records cool/cold climatic conditions, to a greater or lesser extent, these conditions are more apparent in the insect and ostracod faunas. In comparison with results published for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) stadial in The Netherlands, palaeotemperature estimates based on ranges of mutual agreement between independent coleopteran and ostracod methods for the three pre-Ipswichian/Eemian assemblages indicate minimum mean July air temperatures that are from +1° to +3 °C warmer, but January values that embrace the −8 °C estimate for the LGM. There is, however, a disparity between the coleopteran and ostracod palaeotemperature estimates for the Middle Devensian/Weichselian fossil assemblage, which are based on two different sample stratigraphic levels; the lower, coleopteran assemblage is indicative of very cool, continental climates, whereas the stratigraphically slightly higher ostracod assemblage suggests a climatic amelioration. Lack of numerical age-estimates prevents a robust stratigraphical interpretation, but the youngest pre-Ipswichian/Eemian fossil assemblage could date to the MIS 7–6 transition, at a time when cooling possibly preceded glacially driven sea-level fall. It is apparent from the rich coleopteran data that some continental cold-indicator taxa also appeared in pre-Ipswichian/Eemian cold stages and therefore assignment of continental cold-indicator taxa to particular Devensian/Weichselian intervals should be undertaken with care

Use of SMS texts for facilitating access to online alcohol interventions: a feasibility study

A41 Use of SMS texts for facilitating access to online alcohol interventions: a feasibility study In: Addiction Science & Clinical Practice 2017, 12(Suppl 1): A4

SARS-CoV-2-specific nasal IgA wanes 9 months after hospitalisation with COVID-19 and is not induced by subsequent vaccination

BACKGROUND: Most studies of immunity to SARS-CoV-2 focus on circulating antibody, giving limited insights into mucosal defences that prevent viral replication and onward transmission. We studied nasal and plasma antibody responses one year after hospitalisation for COVID-19, including a period when SARS-CoV-2 vaccination was introduced. METHODS: In this follow up study, plasma and nasosorption samples were prospectively collected from 446 adults hospitalised for COVID-19 between February 2020 and March 2021 via the ISARIC4C and PHOSP-COVID consortia. IgA and IgG responses to NP and S of ancestral SARS-CoV-2, Delta and Omicron (BA.1) variants were measured by electrochemiluminescence and compared with plasma neutralisation data. FINDINGS: Strong and consistent nasal anti-NP and anti-S IgA responses were demonstrated, which remained elevated for nine months (p < 0.0001). Nasal and plasma anti-S IgG remained elevated for at least 12 months (p < 0.0001) with plasma neutralising titres that were raised against all variants compared to controls (p < 0.0001). Of 323 with complete data, 307 were vaccinated between 6 and 12 months; coinciding with rises in nasal and plasma IgA and IgG anti-S titres for all SARS-CoV-2 variants, although the change in nasal IgA was minimal (1.46-fold change after 10 months, p = 0.011) and the median remained below the positive threshold determined by pre-pandemic controls. Samples 12 months after admission showed no association between nasal IgA and plasma IgG anti-S responses (R = 0.05, p = 0.18), indicating that nasal IgA responses are distinct from those in plasma and minimally boosted by vaccination. INTERPRETATION: The decline in nasal IgA responses 9 months after infection and minimal impact of subsequent vaccination may explain the lack of long-lasting nasal defence against reinfection and the limited effects of vaccination on transmission. These findings highlight the need to develop vaccines that enhance nasal immunity. FUNDING: This study has been supported by ISARIC4C and PHOSP-COVID consortia. ISARIC4C is supported by grants from the National Institute for Health and Care Research and the Medical Research Council. Liverpool Experimental Cancer Medicine Centre provided infrastructure support for this research. The PHOSP-COVD study is jointly funded by UK Research and Innovation and National Institute of Health and Care Research. The funders were not involved in the study design, interpretation of data or the writing of this manuscript

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2•72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2•66–2•79) in 2000 to 2•31 (2•17–2•46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134•5 million (131•5–137•8) in 2000 to a peak of 139•6 million (133•0–146•9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135•3 million (127•2–144•1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2•1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27•1% (95% UI 26•4–27•8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67•2 years (95% UI 66•8–67•6) in 2000 to 73•5 years (72•8–74•3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50•7 million (49•5–51•9) in 2000 to 56•5 million (53•7–59•2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9•6 million (9•1–10•3) in 2000 to 5•0 million (4•3–6•0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25•7%, from 6•2 billion (6•0–6•3) in 2000 to 7•7 billion (7•5–8•0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58•6 years (56•1–60•8) in 2000 to 63•5 years (60•8–66•1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019. Interpretation: Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990�2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease. Methods: GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk�outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk�outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk�outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden. Findings: The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95 uncertainty interval UI 9·51�12·1) deaths (19·2% 16·9�21·3 of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12�9·31) deaths (15·4% 14·6�16·2 of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253�350) DALYs (11·6% 10·3�13·1 of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0�9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10�24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25�49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50�74 years and 75 years and older. Interpretation: Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Management of chronic airflow obstruction: differences in practice between respiratory and general physicians

An audit of inpatient care of diseases characterized by chronic airflow obstruction namely chronic bronchitis, emphysema and chronic obstructive airways disease (ICD Code Nos. 490–2 &amp; 496) was performed and the practice of respiratory and general physicians compared. One hundred cases were sampled at random from 279 cases admitted to hospitals serving the West of Glasgow in 1988. Fifty cases were selected from those admitted under the care of respiratory physicians and 50 from those under general physicians; 89 were suitable for analysis. The main outcome measurements consisted of the use of routine respiratory investigations, comparison of the use of standard therapies during the admission and at discharge, length of stay, inpatient deaths, follow up and readmission rates. The groups were similar in age, smoking history, gender and there was no significant difference in admission arterial blood gas values. The pulse rate on admission was higher in the general group (102 beats per min) in comparison to the respiratory group (91 beats per min) (P&lt;0·004). A similar use of chest radiograph and arterial blood gas analysis was noted between the groups. Ninety-six per cent of respiratory patients had either spirometry or peak expiratory flow measured compared to 62% in the general group (P=0·0001). No significant differences were noted in the use of antibiotics, bronchodilators, corticosteroids, oxygen or respiratory stimulants. The mean length of stay was similar. Two patients (4%) in the respiratory group compared with seven (18%) in the general group died during the admission (P=0·01); there were no further early deaths at 1 month from discharge. Follow up differed with 92% of respiratory patients being offered appointments compared with 62% in the general group (P=0·001). Readmission rates were similar and at 1 year 44% in both groups had been readmitted. In patients with a discharge diagnosis of chronic airflow obstruction respiratory physicians measure lung function more than general physicians and are more likely to review their patients. In this study a significantly higher inpatient death rate was noted amongst the group admitted under the care of the general physicians. The reason for this difference in death rate between the two groups is unclear