Forecasting local hospital bed demand for COVID-19 using on-request simulations

For hospitals, realistic forecasting of bed demand during impending epidemics of infectious diseases is essential to avoid being overwhelmed by a potential sudden increase in the number of admitted patients. Short-term forecasting can aid hospitals in adjusting their planning and freeing up beds in time. We created an easy-to-use online on-request tool based on local data to forecast COVID-19 bed demand for individual hospitals. The tool is flexible and adaptable to different settings. It is based on a stochastic compartmental model for estimating the epidemic dynamics and coupled with an exponential smoothing model for forecasting. The models are written in R and Julia and implemented as an R-shiny dashboard. The model is parameterized using COVID-19 incidence, vaccination, and bed occupancy data at customizable geographical resolutions, loaded from official online sources or uploaded manually. Users can select their hospital's catchment area and adjust the number of COVID-19 occupied beds at the start of the simulation. The tool provides short-term forecasts of disease incidence and past and forecasted estimation of the epidemic reproductive number at the chosen geographical level. These quantities are then used to estimate the bed occupancy in both general wards and intensive care unit beds. The platform has proven efficient, providing results within seconds while coping with many concurrent users. By providing ad-hoc, local data informed forecasts, this platform allows decision-makers to evaluate realistic scenarios for allocating scarce resources, such as ICU beds, at various geographic levels.Comment: 23 pages, 3 figures. Code available at https://github.com/QUPI-IUK/Bed-demand-forecas

WI-FI APPLICATIONS IN SEISMIC AND GEODETIC MONITORING SYSTEM

e Istituto Nazionale di Geo sica e Vulcanologia (INGV) uses di erent transmission systems for the seismic and GPS data from remote sites. ose di erent types of transmission makes the Italian seismic monitoring reliable and redundant

Point prevalence data on antimicrobial usage in Italian acute-care hospitals: Evaluation and comparison of results from two national surveys (2011-2016).

AbstractObjectives and design:Data from the Italian national point-prevalence survey (PPS) of healthcare-associated infections (HAIs) were used to evaluate antimicrobial usage (AMU) in Italy and to identify targets for future interventions.Methods:The second Italian PPS was conducted in 2016 as part of the European PPS initiated by the ECDC. We compared these results with those of the first national survey, conducted in 2011.Results:An overall AMU prevalence of 44.5% (95% CI, 43.7–45.3) was estimated in 2016. No significant change in AMU prevalence was detected when comparing data with the first survey. In both surveys, the most prevalent indication for AMU was the treatment of infections. Considering all indications, penicillins plus β-lactamase inhibitors (BLIs) were the most commonly prescribed antimicrobial group in 2016; they were used significantly more than in 2011, and piperacillin plus BLI was the most frequently used agent. Broad-spectrum agents accounted for >60% of all antimicrobials for systemic use. No significant increase in the use of carbapenems occurred in 2016. Stable or decreasing carbapenem-resistance levels were identified in this study, although these levels remain alarmingly high for both Klebsiella pneumoniae (50%) and Acinetobacter baumannii (>75%).Conclusions:These results can be used to identify priorities and targets for interventions that promote more prudent use of antimicrobials, improve healthcare quality and patient safety, and combat the emergence and spread of antimicrobial-resistant pathogens

Short versus standard treatment with pegylated interferon alfa-2A plus ribavirin in patients with hepatitis C virus genotype 2 or 3: the cleo trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype 2 or 3, 24 weeks' treatment with pegylated interferon alfa (PEG-IFN-alpha) and ribavirin induces a sustained virological response (SVR) in almost 80% of cases. Evidence suggests that a similar response rate may be obtained with shorter treatment periods, especially in patients with a rapid virological response (RVR). The aim of this study was to compare the efficacy of 12 or 24 weeks of treatment in patients with chronic HCV genotype 2 or 3 and to identify patients suitable for 12 weeks treatment.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Two hundred and ten patients received PEG-IFN-alpha-2a (180 ug/week) and ribavirin (800-1200 mg/day) for 4 weeks. Patients with a RVR (HCV RNA not detectable) were randomized (1:1) to either 12 (group A1) or 24 (group A2) weeks of combination therapy. Patients without a RVR continued with 24-weeks' combination therapy (group B). HCV RNA was monitored at weeks 4, 8, 12, and 24, and at week 24 post-treatment.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>At study end, end of treatment response (ETR) was observed in 62 (86%) patients of group A1 and in 55 (77%) patients of group A2 (p < 0.05) Relapse rate was 3% each in groups A1 and A2, and 6% in group B. Among patients with a HCVRNA test 24 weeks after the end of treatment, SVR was observed in 60 (83%) of group A1 patients and in 53 (75%) of group A2 patients. Rapid virological response, low baseline HCV RNA levels, elevated alanine aminotransferase levels and low fibrosis score, were the strongest covariates associated with SVR, independent of HCV genotype. No baseline characteristic was associated with relapse.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In HCV patients with genotype 2 or 3, 12-week combination therapy is as efficacious as 24-week therapy and several independent covariates were predictive of SVR.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>Trial number ISRCTN29259563</p

Effects of the dose of erythropoiesis stimulating agents on cardiovascular events, quality of life, and health-related costs in hemodialysis patients: the clinical evaluation of the dose of erythropoietins (C.E. DOSE) trial protocol

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Anemia is a risk factor for death, adverse cardiovascular outcomes and poor quality of life in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Erythropoietin Stimulating Agents (ESA) are commonly used to increase hemoglobin levels in this population. In observational studies, higher hemoglobin levels (around 11-13 g/dL) are associated with improved survival and quality of life compared to hemoglobin levels around 9-10 g/dL. A systematic review of randomized trials found that targeting higher hemoglobin levels with ESA causes an increased risk of adverse vascular outcomes. It is possible, but has never been formally tested in a randomized trial, that ESA dose rather than targeted hemoglobin concentration itself mediates the increased risk of adverse vascular outcomes. The Clinical Evaluation of the DOSe of Erythropoietins (C.E. DOSE) trial will assess the benefits and harms of a high versus a low fixed ESA dose for the management of anemia in patients with end stage kidney disease.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>This is a randomized, prospective open label blinded end-point (PROBE) trial due to enrol 2204 hemodialysis patients in Italy. Patients will be randomized 1:1 to 4000 IU/week versus 18000 IU/week of intravenous epoietin alfa or beta, or any other ESA in equivalent doses. The dose will be adjusted only if hemoglobin levels fall outside the 9.5-12.5 g/dL range. The primary outcome will be a composite of all-cause mortality, non fatal stroke, non fatal myocardial infarction and hospitalization for cardiovascular causes. Quality of life and costs will also be assessed.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>The C.E.DOSE study will help inform the optimal therapeutic strategy for the management of anemia of hemodialysis patients, improving clinical outcomes, quality of life and costs, by ascertaining the potential benefits and harms of different fixed ESA doses.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00827021</p

Direct-acting antivirals and hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis C: A few lights and many shadows

With the introduction of direct-acting antiviral agents (DAA), the rate of sustained virological response (SVR) in the treatment of hepatitis C virus (HCV) has radically improved to over 95%. Robust scientific evidence supports a beneficial role of SVR after interferon therapy in the progression of cirrhosis, resulting in a decreased incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, a debate on the impact of DAAs on the development of HCC is ongoing. This review aimed to analyse the scientific literature regarding the risk of HCC in terms of its recurrence and occurrence after the use of DAAs to eradicate HCV infection. Among 11 studies examining HCC occurrence, the de novo incidence rate ranged from 0 to 7.4% (maximum follow-up: 18 mo). Among 18 studies regarding HCC recurrence, the rate ranged from 0 to 54.4% (maximum "not well-defined" followup: 32 mo). This review highlights the major difficulties in interpreting data and reconciling the results of the included studies. These difficulties include heterogeneous cohorts, potential misclassifications of HCC prior to DAA therapy, the absence of an adequate control group, short follow-up times and different kinds of follow-up. Moreover, no clinical feature-based scoring system accounts for the molecular characteristics and pathobiology of the tumours. Nonetheless, this review does not suggest that there is a higher rate of de novo HCC occurrence or recurrence after DAA therapy in patients with previous HCV infection. \ua9 2018 The Author(s). Published by Baishideng Publishing Group Inc. All rights reserved

Les droits disciplinaires des fonctions publiques : « unification », « harmonisation » ou « distanciation ». A propos de la loi du 26 avril 2016 relative à la déontologie et aux droits et obligations des fonctionnaires

The production of tt‾ , W+bb‾ and W+cc‾ is studied in the forward region of proton–proton collisions collected at a centre-of-mass energy of 8 TeV by the LHCb experiment, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 1.98±0.02 fb−1 . The W bosons are reconstructed in the decays W→ℓν , where ℓ denotes muon or electron, while the b and c quarks are reconstructed as jets. All measured cross-sections are in agreement with next-to-leading-order Standard Model predictions.The production of $t\overline{t}$, $W+b\overline{b}$ and $W+c\overline{c}$ is studied in the forward region of proton-proton collisions collected at a centre-of-mass energy of 8 TeV by the LHCb experiment, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 1.98 $\pm$ 0.02 \mbox{fb}^{-1}. The $W$ bosons are reconstructed in the decays $W\rightarrow\ell\nu$, where $\ell$ denotes muon or electron, while the $b$ and $c$ quarks are reconstructed as jets. All measured cross-sections are in agreement with next-to-leading-order Standard Model predictions

Multidifferential study of identified charged hadron distributions in ZZ-tagged jets in proton-proton collisions at s=\sqrt{s}=13 TeV

Jet fragmentation functions are measured for the first time in proton-proton collisions for charged pions, kaons, and protons within jets recoiling against a $Z$ boson. The charged-hadron distributions are studied longitudinally and transversely to the jet direction for jets with transverse momentum 20 $< p_{\textrm{T}} < 100$ GeV and in the pseudorapidity range $2.5 < \eta < 4$. The data sample was collected with the LHCb experiment at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 1.64 fb$^{-1}$. Triple differential distributions as a function of the hadron longitudinal momentum fraction, hadron transverse momentum, and jet transverse momentum are also measured for the first time. This helps constrain transverse-momentum-dependent fragmentation functions. Differences in the shapes and magnitudes of the measured distributions for the different hadron species provide insights into the hadronization process for jets predominantly initiated by light quarks.Comment: All figures and tables, along with machine-readable versions and any supplementary material and additional information, are available at https://cern.ch/lhcbproject/Publications/p/LHCb-PAPER-2022-013.html (LHCb public pages

Study of the B−→Λc+Λˉc−K−B^{-} \to \Lambda_{c}^{+} \bar{\Lambda}_{c}^{-} K^{-} decay

The decay $B^{-} \to \Lambda_{c}^{+} \bar{\Lambda}_{c}^{-} K^{-}$ is studied in proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV using data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 5 $\mathrm{fb}^{-1}$ collected by the LHCb experiment. In the $\Lambda_{c}^+ K^{-}$ system, the $\Xi_{c}(2930)^{0}$ state observed at the BaBar and Belle experiments is resolved into two narrower states, $\Xi_{c}(2923)^{0}$ and $\Xi_{c}(2939)^{0}$, whose masses and widths are measured to be $$m(\Xi_{c}(2923)^{0}) = 2924.5 \pm 0.4 \pm 1.1 \,\mathrm{MeV}, \\ m(\Xi_{c}(2939)^{0}) = 2938.5 \pm 0.9 \pm 2.3 \,\mathrm{MeV}, \\ \Gamma(\Xi_{c}(2923)^{0}) = \phantom{000}4.8 \pm 0.9 \pm 1.5 \,\mathrm{MeV},\\ \Gamma(\Xi_{c}(2939)^{0}) = \phantom{00}11.0 \pm 1.9 \pm 7.5 \,\mathrm{MeV},$$ where the first uncertainties are statistical and the second systematic. The results are consistent with a previous LHCb measurement using a prompt $\Lambda_{c}^{+} K^{-}$ sample. Evidence of a new $\Xi_{c}(2880)^{0}$ state is found with a local significance of $3.8\,\sigma$, whose mass and width are measured to be $2881.8 \pm 3.1 \pm 8.5\,\mathrm{MeV}$ and $12.4 \pm 5.3 \pm 5.8 \,\mathrm{MeV}$, respectively. In addition, evidence of a new decay mode $\Xi_{c}(2790)^{0} \to \Lambda_{c}^{+} K^{-}$ is found with a significance of $3.7\,\sigma$. The relative branching fraction of $B^{-} \to \Lambda_{c}^{+} \bar{\Lambda}_{c}^{-} K^{-}$ with respect to the $B^{-} \to D^{+} D^{-} K^{-}$ decay is measured to be $2.36 \pm 0.11 \pm 0.22 \pm 0.25$, where the first uncertainty is statistical, the second systematic and the third originates from the branching fractions of charm hadron decays.Comment: All figures and tables, along with any supplementary material and additional information, are available at https://cern.ch/lhcbproject/Publications/p/LHCb-PAPER-2022-028.html (LHCb public pages