Investigating the effect of gastrointestinal nematodiasis in Merino sheep on the Northern Tablelands of New South Wales and implications for Integrated Parasite Management

On the Northern Tablelands of NSW, gastrointestinal nematodiasis imposes significant constraints to sheep production. The overall aim of this thesis was to quantify this production loss and evaluate the extent to which it can be ameliorated by integrated parasite management approaches. The general hypothesis tested in this work was that gastrointestinal nematode infection (i.e. worms) present on commercial sheep properties in the Northern Tablelands of NSW induces significant production loss and that worm control utilising Integrated Parasite Management in Sheep (IPM) would reduce this loss and the overall economic impact of worms. ... This research has quantified the biological and economic impact of worms on commercial farms on the Northern Tablelands of NSW in the largest and most comprehensive study of its kind to date. It has shown it to be higher than previous estimates which is primarily due to increased commodity prices. The work has also clearly demonstrated the benefits of Integrated Parasite Management in Sheep in reducing both worm-induced mortality and the overall economic impact of gastrointestinal nematode infection. It is hoped that the information presented in this thesis will ultimately support an increased adoption by industry of sustainable worm control programs

Modelling Marek's Disease Virus (MDV) infection: parameter estimates for mortality rate and infectiousness

Background: Marek's disease virus (MDV) is an economically important oncogenic herpesvirus of poultry. Since the 1960s, increasingly virulent strains have caused continued poultry industry production losses worldwide. To understand the mechanisms of this virulence evolution and to evaluate the epidemiological consequences of putative control strategies, it is imperative to understand how virulence is defined and how this correlates with host mortality and infectiousness during MDV infection. We present a mathematical approach to quantify key epidemiological parameters. Host lifespan, virus latent periods and host viral shedding rates were estimated for unvaccinated and vaccinated birds, infected with one of three MDV strains. The strains had previously been pathotyped to assign virulence scores according to pathogenicity of strains in hosts. Results: Our analyses show that strains of higher virulence have a higher viral shedding rate, and more rapidly kill hosts. Vaccination enhances host life expectancy but does not significantly reduce the shedding rate of the virus. While the primary latent period of the virus does not vary with challenge strain nor vaccine treatment of host, the time until the maximum viral shedding rate is increased with vaccination. Conclusions: Our approach provides the tools necessary for a formal analysis of the evolution of virulence in MDV, and potentially simpler and cheaper approaches to comparing the virulence of MDV strains

A quantitative assessment of the annual contribution of platform downwearing to beach sediment budget: Happisburgh, England, UK

Field and numerical investigations at Happisburgh, East coast of England, UK, sought to characterize beach thickness and determine geologic framework controls on coastal change. After a major failure of coastal protection infrastructure, removal of about 1 km of coastal defence along the otherwise protected cliffed coastline of Happisburgh triggered a period of rapid erosion over 20 years of ca. 140 m. Previous sensitivity studies suggest that beach thickness plays a major role in coastal recession. These studies were limited, however, by a lack of beach volume data. In this study, we have integrated the insights gained from our understanding of the Quaternary geology of the area, a novel non-intrusive passive seismic survey method, and a 3D novel representation of the subsurface source and transportable material into a coastal modelling environment to explore the role of beach thickness on the back wearing and downwearing of the cliffs and consolidated platform, respectively. Results show that beach thickness is non-homogeneous along the study site: we estimate that the contribution to near-shore sediment budget via platform downwearing is of a similar order of magnitude as sediment lost from the beach and therefore non-negligible. We have provided a range of evidence to support the idea that the Happisburgh beach is a relatively thin layer perched on a sediment rich platform of sand and gravel. This conceptualization differs from previous publications, which assume that the platform was mostly till and fine material. This has direct implication on regional sediment management along this coastline. The present study contributes to our understanding of a poorly known aspect of coastal sediment budgeting and outlines a quantitative approach that allows for simple integration of geological understanding for coastline evolution assessments worldwid

The effectiveness of mass vaccination on Marek's disease virus (MDV) outbreaks and detection within a broiler barn: A modeling study

AbstractMarek's disease virus (MDV), a poultry pathogen, has been increasing in virulence since the mid twentieth century. Since multiple vaccines have been developed and widely implemented, losses due to MDV have decreased. However, vaccine failure has occurred in the past and vaccine breakthroughs remain a problem. Failure of disease control with current vaccines would have significant economic and welfare consequences. Nevertheless, the epidemiology of the disease during a farm outbreak is not well understood. Here we present a mathematical model to predict the effectiveness of vaccines to reduce the outbreak probability and disease burden within a barn. We find that the chance of an outbreak within a barn increases with the virulence of an MDV strain, and is significantly reduced when the flock is vaccinated, especially when there the contaminant strain is of low virulence. With low quantities of contaminated dust, there is nearly a 100% effectiveness of vaccines to reduce MDV outbreaks. However, the vaccine effectiveness drops to zero with an increased amount of contamination with a middle virulence MDV strain. We predict that the larger the barn, and the more virulent the MDV strain is, the more virus is produced by the time the flock is slaughtered. With the low-to-moderate virulence of the strains studied here, the number of deaths due to MDV is very low compared to all-cause mortality regardless of the vaccination status of the birds. However, the cumulative MD incidence can reach 100% for unvaccinated cohorts, and 35% for vaccinated cohorts. These results suggest that death due to MDV is an insufficient metric to assess the prevalence of MDV broiler barns regardless of vaccine status, such that active surveillance is required to successfully assess the probability of MDV outbreaks, and to limit transmission of MDV between successive cohorts of broiler chickens

Overview of recent physics results from MAST

New results from MAST are presented that focus on validating models in order to extrapolate to future devices. Measurements during start-up experiments have shown how the bulk ion temperature rise scales with the square of the reconnecting field. During the current ramp-up, models are not able to correctly predict the current diffusion. Experiments have been performed looking at edge and core turbulence. At the edge, detailed studies have revealed how filament characteristics are responsible for determining the near and far scrape off layer density profiles. In the core the intrinsic rotation and electron scale turbulence have been measured. The role that the fast ion gradient has on redistributing fast ions through fishbone modes has led to a redesign of the neutral beam injector on MAST Upgrade. In H-mode the turbulence at the pedestal top has been shown to be consistent with being due to electron temperature gradient modes. A reconnection process appears to occur during edge localized modes (ELMs) and the number of filaments released determines the power profile at the divertor. Resonant magnetic perturbations can mitigate ELMs provided the edge peeling response is maximised and the core kink response minimised. The mitigation of intrinsic error fields with toroidal mode number n  >  1 has been shown to be important for plasma performance

Clinical utility and diagnostic accuracy of faecal calprotectin for IBD at first presentation to gastroenterology services in adults aged 16–50 years

BACKGROUND: Distinguishing inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) from functional gastrointestinal (GI) disease remains an important issue for gastroenterologists and primary care physicians, and may be difficult on the basis of symptoms alone. Faecal calprotectin (FC) is a surrogate marker for intestinal inflammation but not cancer. AIM: This large retrospective study aimed to determine the most effective use of FC in patients aged 16–50 presenting with GI symptoms. METHODS: FC results were obtained for patients presenting to the GI clinics in Edinburgh between 2005 and 2009 from the Edinburgh Faecal Calprotectin Registry containing FCs from >16,000 patients. Case notes were interrogated to identify demographics, subsequent investigations and diagnoses. RESULTS: 895 patients were included in the main analysis, 65% female and with a median age of 33 years. 10.2% were diagnosed with IBD, 7.3% with another GI condition associated with an abnormal GI tract and 63.2% had functional GI disease. Median FC in these three groups were 1251, 50 and 20 μg/g (p < 0.0001). On ROC analysis, the AUC for FC as a predictor of IBD vs. functional disease was 0.97. Using a threshold of ≥ 50 μg/g for IBD vs. functional disease yielded a sensitivity of 0.97, specificity of 0.74, positive predictive value of 0.37 and negative predictive value of 0.99. Combined with alarm symptoms, the sensitivity was 1.00. CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of FC in the initial diagnostic workup of young patients with GI symptoms, particularly those without alarm symptoms, is highly accurate in the exclusion of IBD, and can provide reassurance to patients and physicians

Global patient outcomes after elective surgery: prospective cohort study in 27 low-, middle- and high-income countries.

BACKGROUND: As global initiatives increase patient access to surgical treatments, there remains a need to understand the adverse effects of surgery and define appropriate levels of perioperative care. METHODS: We designed a prospective international 7-day cohort study of outcomes following elective adult inpatient surgery in 27 countries. The primary outcome was in-hospital complications. Secondary outcomes were death following a complication (failure to rescue) and death in hospital. Process measures were admission to critical care immediately after surgery or to treat a complication and duration of hospital stay. A single definition of critical care was used for all countries. RESULTS: A total of 474 hospitals in 19 high-, 7 middle- and 1 low-income country were included in the primary analysis. Data included 44 814 patients with a median hospital stay of 4 (range 2-7) days. A total of 7508 patients (16.8%) developed one or more postoperative complication and 207 died (0.5%). The overall mortality among patients who developed complications was 2.8%. Mortality following complications ranged from 2.4% for pulmonary embolism to 43.9% for cardiac arrest. A total of 4360 (9.7%) patients were admitted to a critical care unit as routine immediately after surgery, of whom 2198 (50.4%) developed a complication, with 105 (2.4%) deaths. A total of 1233 patients (16.4%) were admitted to a critical care unit to treat complications, with 119 (9.7%) deaths. Despite lower baseline risk, outcomes were similar in low- and middle-income compared with high-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: Poor patient outcomes are common after inpatient surgery. Global initiatives to increase access to surgical treatments should also address the need for safe perioperative care. STUDY REGISTRATION: ISRCTN5181700

Overview of JET results for optimising ITER operation

The JET 2019–2020 scientific and technological programme exploited the results of years of concerted scientific and engineering work, including the ITER-like wall (ILW: Be wall and W divertor) installed in 2010, improved diagnostic capabilities now fully available, a major neutral beam injection upgrade providing record power in 2019–2020, and tested the technical and procedural preparation for safe operation with tritium. Research along three complementary axes yielded a wealth of new results. Firstly, the JET plasma programme delivered scenarios suitable for high fusion power and alpha particle (α) physics in the coming D–T campaign (DTE2), with record sustained neutron rates, as well as plasmas for clarifying the impact of isotope mass on plasma core, edge and plasma-wall interactions, and for ITER pre-fusion power operation. The efficacy of the newly installed shattered pellet injector for mitigating disruption forces and runaway electrons was demonstrated. Secondly, research on the consequences of long-term exposure to JET-ILW plasma was completed, with emphasis on wall damage and fuel retention, and with analyses of wall materials and dust particles that will help validate assumptions and codes for design and operation of ITER and DEMO. Thirdly, the nuclear technology programme aiming to deliver maximum technological return from operations in D, T and D–T benefited from the highest D–D neutron yield in years, securing results for validating radiation transport and activation codes, and nuclear data for ITER