Saddlepoint approximation for moment generating functions of truncated random variables

We consider the problem of approximating the moment generating function (MGF) of a truncated random variable in terms of the MGF of the underlying (i.e., untruncated) random variable. The purpose of approximating the MGF is to enable the application of saddlepoint approximations to certain distributions determined by truncated random variables. Two important statistical applications are the following: the approximation of certain multivariate cumulative distribution functions; and the approximation of passage time distributions in ion channel models which incorporate time interval omission. We derive two types of representation for the MGF of a truncated random variable. One of these representations is obtained by exponential tilting. The second type of representation, which has two versions, is referred to as an exponential convolution representation. Each representation motivates a different approximation. It turns out that each of the three approximations is extremely accurate in those cases ``to which it is suited.'' Moreover, there is a simple rule of thumb for deciding which approximation to use in a given case, and if this rule is followed, then our numerical and theoretical results indicate that the resulting approximation will be extremely accurate.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/009053604000000689 in the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Less government intervention in biodiversity management: risks and opportunities

n a changing global environment, with increasing pressure on ecosystem goods and services, biodiversity conservation is likely to become increasingly important. However, with the current global financial crisis, governments are increasingly trying to stabilise economies through spending cuts aiming to reduce national deficits. Within such an economic climate, the devolution of governance through public participation is an intrinsically appealing concept. We outline a number of challenges that explain why increased participation in biodiversity management has been and may continue to be problematic. Using as a case study the local stakeholder-driven Moray Firth Seal Management Plan in Scotland, we identify four key conditions that were crucial to the successful participatory management of a biodiversity conflict: a local champion, the emergence of a crisis point, the involvement of decision-makers, and long-term financial and institutional support. Three of the four conditions point to the role of direct government involvement, highlighting the risk of devolving responsibility for biodiversity conflict management to local communities. We argue that without an informed debate, the move towards a more participatory approach could pose a danger to hard-won policy gains in relation to public participation, biodiversity conservation and conflict management

Role of angiopoietin-like protein 3 in sugar-induced dyslipidemia in rhesus macaques: suppression by fish oil or RNAi.

Angiopoietin-like protein 3 (ANGPTL3) inhibits lipid clearance and is a promising target for managing cardiovascular disease. Here we investigated the effects of a high-sugar (high-fructose) diet on circulating ANGPTL3 concentrations in rhesus macaques. Plasma ANGPTL3 concentrations increased ∼30% to 40% after 1 and 3 months of a high-fructose diet (both P < 0.001 vs. baseline). During fructose-induced metabolic dysregulation, plasma ANGPTL3 concentrations were positively correlated with circulating indices of insulin resistance [assessed with fasting insulin and the homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR)], hypertriglyceridemia, adiposity (assessed as leptin), and systemic inflammation [C-reactive peptide (CRP)] and negatively correlated with plasma levels of the insulin-sensitizing hormone adropin. Multiple regression analyses identified a strong association between circulating APOC3 and ANGPTL3 concentrations. Higher baseline plasma levels of both ANGPTL3 and APOC3 were associated with an increased risk for fructose-induced insulin resistance. Fish oil previously shown to prevent insulin resistance and hypertriglyceridemia in this model prevented increases of ANGPTL3 without affecting systemic inflammation (increased plasma CRP and interleukin-6 concentrations). ANGPTL3 RNAi lowered plasma concentrations of ANGPTL3, triglycerides (TGs), VLDL-C, APOC3, and APOE. These decreases were consistent with a reduced risk of atherosclerosis. In summary, dietary sugar-induced increases of circulating ANGPTL3 concentrations after metabolic dysregulation correlated positively with leptin levels, HOMA-IR, and dyslipidemia. Targeting ANGPTL3 expression with RNAi inhibited dyslipidemia by lowering plasma TGs, VLDL-C, APOC3, and APOE levels in rhesus macaques

Nineteenth-Century Popular Science Magazines, Narrative, and the Problem of Historical Materiality

In his Some Reminiscences of a Lecturer, Andrew Wilson emphasizes the importance of narrative to popular science lecturing. Although Wilson promotes the teaching of science as useful knowledge in its own right, he also recognizes that the way science is taught can encourage audiences to take the subject up and read further on their own. Form, according to Wilson, should not be divorced from scientific content and lecturers should ensure that not only is their science accurate, but that it is presented in a way that will provoke curiosity and stimulate interest. This paper discusses the influence of narrative in structuring scientific objects and phenomena, and considers the consequences of such presentations for historical research. As scientific journalism necessarily weaves both its intended audience and the objects under discussion into its accounts, these texts demand that we recognize their nature as social relationships inscribed in historical objects

Metal ions and graphene-based compounds as alternative treatment options for burn wounds infected by antibiotic-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa.

Burn infections caused by Pseudomonas aeruginosa pose a major complication in wound healing. This study aimed to determine the antimicrobial effect of metal ions, graphene (Gr), and graphene oxide (GO), individually and in combination, against the planktonic and biofilm states of two antimicrobially resistant clinical strains of P. aeruginosa each with different antibiotic resistance profiles. Minimum inhibitory, minimum bactericidal, and fractional inhibitory concentrations were performed to determine the efficacy of the metal ions and graphene composites individually and their synergy in combination. Crystal violet biofilm and XTT assays measured the biofilm inhibition and metabolic activity, respectively. Molybdenum, platinum, tin, gold, and palladium ions exhibited the greatest antimicrobial activity (MIC = 7.8-26.0 mg/L), whilst GO and Gr demonstrated moderate-to-no effect against the planktonic bacterial cells, irrespective of their antibiograms. Biofilms were inhibited by zinc, palladium, silver, and graphene. In combination, silver-graphene and molybdenum-graphene inhibited both the planktonic and biofilm forms of the bacteria making them potential candidates for development into topical antimicrobials for burns patients infected with antibiotic-resistant P. aeruginosa

A Millisecond Interferometric Search for Fast Radio Bursts with the Very Large Array

We report on the first millisecond timescale radio interferometric search for the new class of transient known as fast radio bursts (FRBs). We used the Very Large Array (VLA) for a 166-hour, millisecond imaging campaign to detect and precisely localize an FRB. We observed at 1.4 GHz and produced visibilities with 5 ms time resolution over 256 MHz of bandwidth. Dedispersed images were searched for transients with dispersion measures from 0 to 3000 pc/cm3. No transients were detected in observations of high Galactic latitude fields taken from September 2013 though October 2014. Observations of a known pulsar show that images typically had a thermal-noise limited sensitivity of 120 mJy/beam (8 sigma; Stokes I) in 5 ms and could detect and localize transients over a wide field of view. Our nondetection limits the FRB rate to less than 7e4/sky/day (95% confidence) above a fluence limit of 1.2 Jy-ms. Assuming a Euclidean flux distribution, the VLA rate limit is inconsistent with the published rate of Thornton et al. We recalculate previously published rates with a homogeneous consideration of the effects of primary beam attenuation, dispersion, pulse width, and sky brightness. This revises the FRB rate downward and shows that the VLA observations had a roughly 60% chance of detecting a typical FRB and that a 95% confidence constraint would require roughly 500 hours of similar VLA observing. Our survey also limits the repetition rate of an FRB to 2 times less than any known repeating millisecond radio transient.Comment: Submitted to ApJ. 13 pages, 9 figure

Laplace approximation of Lauricella functions F A and F D

The Lauricella functions, which are generalizations of the Gauss hypergeometric function 2 F 1, arise naturally in many areas of mathematics and statistics. So far as we are aware, there is little or nothing in the literature on how to calculate numerical approximations for these functions outside those cases in which a simple one-dimensional integral representation or a one-dimensional series representation is available. In this paper we present first-order and second-order Laplace approximations to the Lauricella functions F(n)A and F(n)D. Our extensive numerical results show that these approximations achieve surprisingly good accuracy in a wide variety of examples, including cases well outside the asymptotic framework within which the approximations were derived. Moreover, it turns out that the second-order Laplace approximations are usually more accurate than their first-order versions. The numerical results are complemented by theoretical investigations which suggest that the approximations have good relative error properties outside the asymptotic regimes within which they were derived, including in certain cases where the dimension n goes to infinity

The Lick Planet Search: Detectability and Mass Thresholds

We analyse 11 years of precise radial velocities for 76 solar type stars from the Lick survey. Eight stars in this sample have previously reported planetary-mass companions, all with mass (m sin i) less than 8 Jupiter masses (MJ). For the stars without a detected companion, we place upper limits on possible companion mass. For most stars, we can exclude companions with m sin i > 0.7 MJ (a/AU)^1/2 for orbital radii a < 5 AU. We use our results to interpret the observed masses and orbital radii of planetary-mass companions. For example, we show that the finite duration of the observations makes detection of Jupiter mass companions more and more difficult for orbital radii beyond 3 AU. Thus it is possible that the majority of solar type stars harbor Jupiter-mass companions much like our own, and if so these companions should be detectable in a few years. To search for periodicities, we adopt a "floating-mean" periodogram, which improves on the traditional Lomb-Scargle periodogram by accounting for statistical fluctuations in the mean of a sampled sinusoid. We discuss in detail the normalization of the periodogram, an issue which has been of some debate in the literature.Comment: To appear in the Astrophysical Journal (50 pages, LaTeX, including 11 figures

Detecting morphed passport photos : a training and individual differences approach

Our reliance on face photos for identity verification is at odds with extensive research which shows that matching pairs of unfamiliar faces is highly prone to error. This process can therefore be exploited by identity fraudsters seeking to deceive ID checkers (e.g. using a stolen passport which contains an image of similar looking individual to deceive border control officials). In this study we build on previous work which sought to quantify the threat posed by a relatively new type of fraud - morphed passport photos. Participants were initially unaware of the presence of morphs in a series of face photo arrays, and were simply asked to detect which images they thought had been digitally manipulated (i.e. “images that didn’t look quite right”). All participants then received basic information on morph fraud and rudimentary guidance on how to detect such images, followed by a morph detection training task (Training Group, N = 40), or a non-face control task (Guidance Group, N = 40). Participants also completed a post-guidance/training morph detection task, and the Models Face Matching Test (MFMT). Our findings show that baseline morph detection rates were poor, that morph detection training significantly improved the identification of these images over and above basic guidance, and accuracy on the mismatch condition of the MFMT correlated with morph detection ability. The results are discussed in relation to potential counter-measures for morph-based identity fraud