A cost-effectiveness analysis of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy sudden cardiac death risk algorithms for implantable cardioverter defibrillator decision-making

AIMS: To conduct a contemporary cost-effectiveness analysis examining the use of implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICD) for primary prevention in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). METHODS: A discrete-time Markov model was used to determine the cost-effectiveness of different ICD decision-making rules for implantation. Several scenarios were investigated including the reference scenario of implantation rates according to observed real world practice. A 12-year time horizon with an annual cycle length was used. Transition probabilities used in the model were obtained using Bayesian analysis. The study has been reported according to the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) checklist. RESULTS: Using a 5-year SCD risk threshold of 6% was cheaper than current practice and has marginally better total quality adjusted life years (QALYs). This is the most cost-effective of the options considered, with an incremental cost effectiveness ratio of £834 per QALY. Sensitivity analyses highlighted that this decision is largely driven by what health related quality of life (HRQL) is attributed to ICD patients and time horizon. CONCLUSION: We present a timely new perspective on HCM ICD cost-effectiveness, using methods reflecting real-world practice. While we have shown that a 6% 5-year SCD risk cut-off provides the best cohort stratification to aid ICD decision-making, this will also be influenced by the particular values of costs and HRQL for subgroups or at a local level. The process of explicitly demonstrating the main factors which drive conclusions from such an analysis will help to inform shared decision-making in this complex area for all stakeholders concerned

Prediction of thrombo-embolic risk in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM Risk-CVA)

Aims Atrial fibrillation (AF) and thrombo-embolism (TE) are associated with reduced survival in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM), but the absolute risk of TE in patients with and without AF is unclear. The primary aim of this study was to derive and validate a model for estimating the risk of TE in HCM. Exploratory analyses were performed to determine predictors of TE, the performance of the CHA2DS2-VASc score, and outcome with vitamin K antagonists (VKAs). Methods and results A retrospective, longitudinal cohort of seven institutions was used to develop multivariable Cox regression models fitted with pre-selected predictors. Bootstrapping was used for validation. Of 4821 HCM patients recruited between 1986 and 2008, 172 (3.6%) reached the primary endpoint of cerebrovascular accident (CVA), transient ischaemic attack (TIA), or systemic peripheral embolus within 10 years. A total of 27.5% of patients had a CHA2DS2-VASc score of 0, of whom 9.8% developed TE during follow-up. Cox regression revealed an association between TE and age, AF, the interaction between age and AF, TE prior to first evaluation, NYHA class, left atrial (LA) diameter, vascular disease, and maximal LV wall thickness. There was a curvilinear relationship between LA size and TE risk. The model predicted TE with a C-index of 0.75 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.70-0.80] and the D-statistic was 1.30 (95% CI 1.05-1.56). VKA treatment was associated with a 54.8% (95% CI 31-97%, P = 0.037) relative risk reduction in HCM patients with AF. Conclusions The study shows that the risk of TE in HCM patients can be identified using a small number of simple clinical features. LA size, in particular, should be monitored closely, and the assessment and treatment of conventional vascular risk factors should be routine practice in older patients. Exploratory analyses show for the first time evidence for a reduction of TE with VKA treatment. The CHA2DS2-VASc score does not appear to correlate well with the clinical outcome in patients with HCM and should not be used to assess TE risk in this population

Effectiveness of the 2014 European Society of Cardiology guideline on sudden cardiac death in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Objective In 2014, the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) recommended the use of a novel risk prediction model (HCM Risk-SCD) to guide use of implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICD) for the primary prevention of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). We sought to determine the performance of HCM Risk-SCD by conducting a systematic review and meta-analysis of articles reporting on the prevalence of SCD within 5 years of evaluation in low, intermediate and high-risk patients as defined by the 2014 guidelines (predicted risk <4%, 4%–<6% and ≥6%, respectively). Methods The protocol was registered with PROSPERO (registration number: CRD42017064203). MEDLINE and manual searches for papers published from October 2014 to December 2017 were performed. Longitudinal, observational cohorts of unselected adult patients, without history of cardiac arrest were considered. The original HCM Risk-SCD development study was included a priori. Data were pooled using a random effects model. Results Six (0.9%) out of 653 independent publications identified by the initial search were included. The calculated 5-year risk of SCD was reported in 7291 individuals (70% low, 15% intermediate; 15% high risk) with 184 (2.5%) SCD endpoints within 5 years of baseline evaluation. Most SCD endpoints (68%) occurred in patients with an estimated 5-year risk of ≥4% who formed 30% of the total study cohort. Using the random effects method, the pooled prevalence of SCD endpoints was 1.01% (95% CI 0.52 to 1.61) in low-risk patients, 2.43% (95% CI 1.23 to 3.92) in intermediate and 8.4% (95% CI 6.68 to 10.25) in high-risk patients. Conclusions This meta-analysis demonstrates that HCM Risk-SCD provides accurate risk estimations that can be used to guide ICD therapy in accordance with the 2014 ESC guidelines. Registration number PROSPERO CRD42017064203;Pre-results.pre-print379 K

Species richness, number of species with EDGE scores, median, maximum and total ED (in millions of years, Myr) estimated for all tetrapod groups.

<p>Species richness, number of species with EDGE scores, median, maximum and total ED (in millions of years, Myr) estimated for all tetrapod groups.</p

Predictors of atrial fibrillation in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with increased morbidity and mortality in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). The primary aim of this study (HCM Risk-AF) was to determine the predictors of AF in a large multicentre cohort of patients with HCM. Exploratory analyses were performed to investigate the association between AF and survival and the efficacy of antiarrhythmic therapy in maintaining sinus rhythm (SR)

Prediction of thrombo-embolic risk in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM Risk-CVA)

Aims Atrial fibrillation (AF) and thrombo-embolism (TE) are associated with reduced survival in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM), but the absolute risk of TE in patients with and without AF is unclear. The primary aim of this study was to derive and validate a model for estimating the risk of TE in HCM. Exploratory analyses were performed to determine predictors of TE, the performance of the CHA<inf>2</inf>DS<inf>2</inf>-VASc score, and outcome with vitamin K antagonists (VKAs). Methods and results A retrospective, longitudinal cohort of seven institutions was used to develop multivariable Cox regression models fitted with pre-selected predictors. Bootstrapping was used for validation. Of 4821 HCM patients recruited between 1986 and 2008, 172 (3.6%) reached the primary endpoint of cerebrovascular accident (CVA), transient ischaemic attack (TIA), or systemic peripheral embolus within 10 years. A total of 27.5% of patients had a CHA<inf>2</inf>DS<inf>2</inf>-VASc score of 0, of whom 9.8% developed TE during follow-up. Cox regression revealed an association between TE and age, AF, the interaction between age and AF, TE prior to first evaluation, NYHA class, left atrial (LA) diameter, vascular disease, and maximal LV wall thickness. There was a curvilinear relationship between LA size and TE risk. The model predicted TE with a C-index of 0.75 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.70-0.80] and the D-statistic was 1.30 (95% CI 1.05-1.56). VKA treatment was associated with a 54.8% (95% CI 31-97%, P = 0.037) relative risk reduction in HCM patients with AF. Conclusions The study shows that the risk of TE in HCM patients can be identified using a small number of simple clinical features. LA size, in particular, should be monitored closely, and the assessment and treatment of conventional vascular risk factors should be routine practice in older patients. Exploratory analyses show for the first time evidence for a reduction of TE with VKA treatment. The CHA<inf>2</inf>DS<inf>2</inf>-VASc score does not appear to correlate well with the clinical outcome in patients with HCM and should not be used to assess TE risk in this population

Prediction of thrombo-embolic risk in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM Risk-CVA)

Atrial fibrillation (AF) and thrombo-embolism (TE) are associated with reduced survival in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM), but the absolute risk of TE in patients with and without AF is unclear. The primary aim of this study was to derive and validate a model for estimating the risk of TE in HCM. Exploratory analyses were performed to determine predictors of TE, the performance of the CHA2 DS2 -VASc score, and outcome with vitamin K antagonists (VKAs)

Outcomes of Patients With Catecholaminergic Polymorphic Ventricular Tachycardia Treated With β-Blockers

Importance: Patients with catecholaminergic polymorphic ventricular tachycardia (CPVT) may experience life-threatening arrhythmic events (LTAEs) despite β-blocker treatment. Further complicating management, the role of implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) in CPVT is debated. Objective: To investigate the long-term outcomes of patients with RYR2 CPVT treated with β-blockers only and the cost to benefit ratio of ICD. Design, settings, and participants: This prospective cohort study conducted from January 1988 to October 2020 with a mean (SD) follow-up of 9.4 (7.5) years included patients who were referred to the Molecular Cardiology Clinics of ICS Maugeri Hospital, Pavia, Italy. Participants included consecutive patients with CPVT who were carriers of a pathogenic or likely pathogenic RYR2 variant with long-term clinical follow-up. Exposures: Treatment with selective and nonselective β-blocker only and ICD implant when indicated. Main outcome and measures: The main outcome was the occurrence of the first LTAE while taking a β-blocker. LTAE was defined as a composite of 3 hard end points: sudden cardiac death, aborted cardiac arrest, and hemodynamically nontolerated ventricular tachycardia. Results: The cohort included 216 patients with RYR2 CPVT (121 of 216 female [55%], median [IQR] age 14, [9-30] years). During a mean (SD) follow-up of 9.4 (7.5) years taking β-blockers only, 28 of 216 patients (13%) experienced an LTAE (annual rate, 1.9%; 95% CI, 1.3-2.7). In multivariable analysis, experiencing either an LTAE (hazard ratio [HR], 3.3; 95% CI, 1.2-8.9; P = .02) or syncope before diagnosis (HR, 4.5; 95% CI, 1.8-11.1; P = .001) and carrying a C-terminal domain variant (HR, 18.1; 95% CI, 4.1-80.8; P < .001) were associated with an increased LTAE risk during β-blocker therapy only. The risk of LTAE among those taking selective β-blockers vs nadolol was increased 6-fold (HR, 5.8; 95% CI, 2.1-16.3; P = .001). Conversely, no significant difference was present between propranolol and nadolol (HR, 1.8; 95% CI, 0.4-7.3; P = .44). An ICD was implanted in 79 of 216 patients (37%) who were followed up for a mean (SD) of 8.6 (6.3) years. At the occurrence of LTAE, ICD carriers were more likely to survive (18 of 18 [100%]) than non-ICD carriers (6 of 10 [60%]; P = .01). Conclusions and relevance: In this cohort study, selective β-blockers were associated with a higher risk of LTAE as compared with nadolol. Independently from treatment, LTAE and syncope before diagnosis and C-terminal domain variants identified patients at higher risk of β-blocker failure, and the ICD was associated with reduced mortality in high-risk patients with CPVT

Outcomes of Patients with Catecholaminergic Polymorphic Ventricular Tachycardia Treated with β-Blockers

Importance: Patients with catecholaminergic polymorphic ventricular tachycardia (CPVT) may experience life-threatening arrhythmic events (LTAEs) despite β-blocker treatment. Further complicating management, the role of implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) in CPVT is debated. Objective: To investigate the long-term outcomes of patients with RYR2 CPVT treated with β-blockers only and the cost to benefit ratio of ICD. Design, Settings, and Participants: This prospective cohort study conducted from January 1988 to October 2020 with a mean (SD) follow-up of 9.4 (7.5) years included patients who were referred to the Molecular Cardiology Clinics of ICS Maugeri Hospital, Pavia, Italy. Participants included consecutive patients with CPVT who were carriers of a pathogenic or likely pathogenic RYR2 variant with long-term clinical follow-up. Exposures: Treatment with selective and nonselective β-blocker only and ICD implant when indicated. Main Outcome and Measures: The main outcome was the occurrence of the first LTAE while taking a β-blocker. LTAE was defined as a composite of 3 hard end points: sudden cardiac death, aborted cardiac arrest, and hemodynamically nontolerated ventricular tachycardia. Results: The cohort included 216 patients with RYR2 CPVT (121 of 216 female [55%], median [IQR] age 14, [9-30] years). During a mean (SD) follow-up of 9.4 (7.5) years taking β-blockers only, 28 of 216 patients (13%) experienced an LTAE (annual rate, 1.9%; 95% CI, 1.3-2.7). In multivariable analysis, experiencing either an LTAE (hazard ratio [HR], 3.3; 95% CI, 1.2-8.9; P =.02) or syncope before diagnosis (HR, 4.5; 95% CI, 1.8-11.1; P =.001) and carrying a C-terminal domain variant (HR, 18.1; 95% CI, 4.1-80.8; P <.001) were associated with an increased LTAE risk during β-blocker therapy only. The risk of LTAE among those taking selective β-blockers vs nadolol was increased 6-fold (HR, 5.8; 95% CI, 2.1-16.3; P =.001). Conversely, no significant difference was present between propranolol and nadolol (HR, 1.8; 95% CI, 0.4-7.3; P =.44). An ICD was implanted in 79 of 216 patients (37%) who were followed up for a mean (SD) of 8.6 (6.3) years. At the occurrence of LTAE, ICD carriers were more likely to survive (18 of 18 [100%]) than non-ICD carriers (6 of 10 [60%]; P =.01). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, selective β-blockers were associated with a higher risk of LTAE as compared with nadolol. Independently from treatment, LTAE and syncope before diagnosis and C-terminal domain variants identified patients at higher risk of β-blocker failure, and the ICD was associated with reduced mortality in high-risk patients with CPVT