Projeccions climàtiques i escenaris de futur

Aquest capítol tracta de la projecció dels impactes de climes futurs per a trams vulnerables de la costa catalana. Al començament, s’hi revisa la geodiversitat de la costa en termes meteorològics i geològics. El ventall d’impactes que en resulta (sota climes presents i futurs) presenta uns nivells d’incertesa que s’han de considerar per a poder prendre decisions. L’anàlisi es basa en les projeccions del nivell mitjà del mar i en les característiques de l’onatge per a les famílies d’escenaris RCP (trajectòries de concentracions representatives). La projecció dels impactes d’erosió i inundació per a platges i d’agitació i ultrapassament per a ports permet determinar quin és el domini costaner sotmès a aquests impactes, i també quins seran els nivells de risc que es poden esperar en platges i ports. Les conclusions del capítol s’estructuren com un seguit d’actuacions seqüencials per a afavorir la sostenibilitat de la costa. Aquest «camí d’adaptació» permetrà d’assolir uns nivells de riscs presents i futurs explícits, que han de ser considerats per a les activitats socioeconòmiques de la zona litoral.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

An analysis of the evolution of hydrometeorological extremes in newspapers: the case of Catalonia, 1982-2006

This contribution analyzes the evolution of perception of certain natural hazards over the past 25 years in a Mediterranean region. Articles from newspapers have been used as indicator. To this end a specific Spanish journal has been considered and an ACCESS database has been created with the summarized information from each news item. The database includes data such as the location of each specific article in the newspaper, its length, the number of pictures and figures, the headlines and a summary of the published information, including all the instrumental data. The study focused on hydrometeorological extremes, mainly floods and droughts, in the northeast of the Iberian Peninsula. The number of headlines per event, trends and other data have been analyzed and compared with "measured" information, in order to identify any bias that could lead to an erroneous perception of the phenomenon. The SPI index (a drought index based on standardized accumulated precipitation) has been calculated for the entire region, and has been used for the drought analysis, while a geodatabase implemented on a GIS built for all the floods recorded in Catalonia since 1900 (INUNGAMA) has been used to analyze flood evolution. Results from a questionnaire about the impact of natural hazards in two specific places have been also used to discuss the various perceptions between rural and urban settings. Results show a better correlation between the news about drought or water scarcity and SPI than between news on floods in Catalonia and the INUNGAMA database. A positive trend has been found for non-catastrophic floods, which is explained by decrease of the perception thresholds, the increase of population density in the most flood-prone areas and changes in land use

Female Headed Households Below the Poverty Line within Kent County, MI in 2000

Este artículo contiene 12 páginas, 7 figuras, 3 tablas.The Montseny brook newt (Calotriton arnoldi) is a critically endangered amphibian species which inhabits a small 20 km2 holm oak and beech forest area in NE Spain. Calotriton arnoldi strictly lives in running waters and might be highly vulnerable to hydrological perturbations expected to occur under climate and vegetation cover changes. Knowledge about the potential response of the species habitat to environmental changes can help assessing the actions needed for its conservation. Based on knowledge of the species and supported by observations, we proposed daily low and high streamflow event thresholds for the viability of C. arnoldi. We used the rainfall– runoff model PERSiST to simulate changes in the frequency and duration of these events, which were predicted under two climate and four vegetation cover scenarios for near‐future (2031–2050) and far‐future (2081–2100) periods in a reference catchment. All future scenarios projected a significant decrease in annual streamflow (from 21% to as much as 67%) with respect to the reference period. The frequency and length of low streamflow events will dramatically increase. In contrast, the risk of catastrophic drift linked to high streamflow events was predicted to decrease. The potential change in vegetation toward an expansion of holm oak forests will be more important than climate changes in determining threshold low flow conditions. We thus demonstrated that consideration of potential changes in vegetation and not only changes in climate variables is essential in simulating future streamflows. This study shows that future low streamflow conditions will pose a severe threat for the survival of C. arnoldi and may help taking management actions, including limiting the expansion of holm oak forest, for ameliorating the species habitat and help its conservationSvenska Forskningsrådet Formas, Grant/ Award Number: 2015-1518; Spanish Government through a Juan de la Cierva grant, Grant/Award Number: FJCI-2017- 32111; Spanish Government through a MICINN project, Grant/Award Number: CGL2017-84687-C2-2-R; LIFE‐Tritó Montseny project from the European Commission, Grant/Award Number: LIFE15 NAT/ES/000757Peer reviewe

An analysis of the evolution of hydrometeorological extremes in newspapers: the case of Catalonia, 1982-2006

This contribution analyzes the evolution of perception of certain natural hazards over the past 25 years in a Mediterranean region. Articles from newspapers have been used as indicator. To this end a specific Spanish journal has been considered and an ACCESS database has been created with the summarized information from each news item. The database includes data such as the location of each specific article in the newspaper, its length, the number of pictures and figures, the headlines and a summary of the published information, including all the instrumental data. The study focused on hydrometeorological extremes, mainly floods and droughts, in the northeast of the Iberian Peninsula. The number of headlines per event, trends and other data have been analyzed and compared with "measured" information, in order to identify any bias that could lead to an erroneous perception of the phenomenon. The SPI index (a drought index based on standardized accumulated precipitation) has been calculated for the entire region, and has been used for the drought analysis, while a geodatabase implemented on a GIS built for all the floods recorded in Catalonia since 1900 (INUNGAMA) has been used to analyze flood evolution. Results from a questionnaire about the impact of natural hazards in two specific places have been also used to discuss the various perceptions between rural and urban settings. Results show a better correlation between the news about drought or water scarcity and SPI than between news on floods in Catalonia and the INUNGAMA database. A positive trend has been found for non-catastrophic floods, which is explained by decrease of the perception thresholds, the increase of population density in the most flood-prone areas and changes in land use

Future hydrological constraints of the Montseny brook newt (Calotriton arnoldi) under changing climate and vegetation cover

The Montseny brook newt (Calotriton arnoldi) is a critically endangered amphibian species which inhabits a small 20 km2 holm oak and beech forest area in NE Spain. Calotriton arnoldi strictly lives in running waters and might be highly vulnerable to hydrological perturbations expected to occur under climate and vegetation cover changes. Knowledge about the potential response of the species habitat to environ‐mental changes can help assessing the actions needed for its conservation. Based on knowledge of the species and supported by observations, we proposed daily low and high streamflow event thresholds for the viability of C. arnoldi. We used the rainfall-runoff model PERSiST to simulate changes in the frequency and duration of these events, which were predicted under two climate and four vegetation cover scenarios for near‐future (2031-2050) and far‐future (2081-2100) periods in a reference catch‐ment. All future scenarios projected a significant decrease in annual streamflow (from 21% to as much as 67%) with respect to the reference period. The frequency and length of low streamflow events will dramatically increase. In contrast, the risk of catastrophic drift linked to high streamflow events was predicted to decrease. The potential change in vegetation toward an expansion of holm oak forests will be more important than climate changes in determining threshold low flow conditions. We thus demonstrated that consideration of potential changes in vegetation and not only changes in climate variables is essential in simulating future streamflows. This study shows that future low streamflow conditions will pose a severe threat for the survival of C. arnoldi and may help taking management actions, including limiting the expan‐sion of holm oak forest, for ameliorating the species habitat and help its conservation

Soil water availability as a tool for adapting viticulture to climate change

A la regió mediterrània s’espera que l’agricultura es vegi fortament impactada pels augments de temperatura i les sequeres que es preveuen com a conseqüència del canvi climàtic (CC) generat pels gasos amb efecte d’hivernacle (GEH). Ambdós fets incideixen directament en el cicle del cultiu, les seves demandes hídriques i en els seus rendiments. Es fan necessàries decisions estratègiques d’ampli abast d’adaptació i de mitigació del CC, dirigides a millorar la gestió de l’aigua. En aquest estudi s’han estimat les necessitats hídriques netes (NHN) fins a final de segle en dos escenaris de CC per al parcel·lari de vinya de l’empresa Juvé & Camps a l’Alt Penedès. Els resultats de les projeccions futures de la temperatura i la precipitació segons els models estudiats mostren que el tipus de sòl i, especialment, la seva capacitat de retenció d’aigua disponible per a les plantes poden ser determinants en el futur per a poder satisfer, o no, de manera òptima, les necessitats hídriques de la vinya a l’Alt Penedès. En general, els valors mitjans anuals d’NHN es veuran incrementats al llarg de tot el segle i sobretot a partir de mitjan segle, juntament amb un augment de la variabilitat interanual; tot plegat indica que la viticultura de secà es troba i es trobarà davant problemes importants associats al CC, com ara la sequera. El repte agronòmic més important serà fer front a la incertesa, la qual cosa només es pot fer des de la tecnificació del secà per a poder arribar a conèixer les condicions edafoclimàtiques en les quals creix i es desenvolupa la vinya.Paraules clau: canvi climàtic, viticultura de secà, capacitat de retenció d’aigua disponible, projeccions climàtiques, necessitats hídriques, Alt Penedès.En la región mediterránea se espera que la agricultura se vea altamente impactada por los aumentos de temperatura y sequías que se prevén como consecuencia del cambio climático (CC) generado por los gases de efecto invernadero. Estos factores inciden directamente en el ciclo del cultivo, en sus demandas hídricas y en sus rendimientos. Se hacen sobre todo necesarias decisiones estratégicas de amplio alcance en cuanto a la adaptación y mitigación del CC, dirigidas a mejorar la gestión del agua. En este estudio se han estimado las necesidades hídricas netas (NHN) hasta final de siglo en dos escenarios de CC para el parcelario de vid de la empresa Juvé & Camps en el Alt Penedès. Los resultados sobre las proyecciones futuras de la temperatura y la precipitación según los modelos estudiados muestran que el tipo de suelo y, especialmente, su capacidad de retención de agua disponible para las plantas pueden ser determinantes en el futuro para poder alcanzar o no, de manera óptima, las necesidades hídricas de la vid a pie de planta en el Alt Penedès. En general, los valores medios anuales de NHN se verán incrementados a lo largo de todo el siglo y sobre todo a partir de mediados de siglo, junto con un aumento de la variabilidad interanual; todo ello indica que la viticultura de secano se encuentra y se encontrará ante importantes problemas asociados al CC, como la sequía. El mayor reto agronómico será lidiar con la incertidumbre, lo cual solo se puede hacer desde la tecnificación del secano para poder llegar a conocer las condiciones edafoclimáticas en las que crece y se desarrolla la vid.Palabra s clave: cambio climático, viticultura de secano, capacidad de retención de agua disponible, proyecciones climáticas, necesidades hídricas, Alt Penedès.In the Mediterranean region, agriculture is expected to be highly affected by temperature increases and droughts resulting from climate change (CC), which have a direct effect on crop cycles, crop water demands and crop yields. Above all, decisions are required to address the improvement of water management within the framework of wide-ranging CC adaptation and mitigation strategies. In this study, net water requirements (NWRs) were estimated at the end of the century in two CC scenarios for the vine plot of the Juvé & Camps company in the Alt Penedès region. The results of future projections of soil type and, particularly, available soil-water holding capacity may be decisive in the future to optimally meet vine water requirements in the Alt Penedès region. Generally, the mean annual NWR values will increase over the course of the century and above all as from the mid-century, which together with a growth in interannual variability means that rain-fed viticulture faces and will be facing major problems associated with CC, such as drought. The biggest agronomic challenge will be how to deal with uncertainty, which can only be done by means of rain-fed cropland technification in order to learn more about the real edaphoclimatic conditions under which the grapevines grow and develop.Keywords: climate change, rain-fed viticulture, available soil-water holding capacity, climatic projections, water requirements, Alt Penedès

Projeccions climàtiques i escenaris de futur

Aquest capítol tracta de la projecció dels impactes de climes futurs per a trams vulnerables de la costa catalana. Al començament, s’hi revisa la geodiversitat de la costa en termes meteorològics i geològics. El ventall d’impactes que en resulta (sota climes presents i futurs) presenta uns nivells d’incertesa que s’han de considerar per a poder prendre decisions. L’anàlisi es basa en les projeccions del nivell mitjà del mar i en les característiques de l’onatge per a les famílies d’escenaris RCP (trajectòries de concentracions representatives). La projecció dels impactes d’erosió i inundació per a platges i d’agitació i ultrapassament per a ports permet determinar quin és el domini costaner sotmès a aquests impactes, i també quins seran els nivells de risc que es poden esperar en platges i ports. Les conclusions del capítol s’estructuren com un seguit d’actuacions seqüencials per a afavorir la sostenibilitat de la costa. Aquest «camí d’adaptació» permetrà d’assolir uns nivells de riscs presents i futurs explícits, que han de ser considerats per a les activitats socioeconòmiques de la zona litoral.Peer Reviewe