Stochastic Data Generation Technique Using Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) Model

Data generation mechanisms have been widely applied in hydrology. Models are built for generation of data having the statistical properties of the historical records. The creation of synthetic time series starts with the generation of independent normal variables with average zero and variance one, then adding the time and spatial dependence structure as well as periodic components, whichever necessary. The data generation can be accomplished via the analysis of the historical data to check its suitability for generation, Selection, identification of the form, estimation of parameters, & check of the data generation model and Application of the model & testing of the results. This paper summarizes the required work to be done as per the above steps taking the autoregressive moving average as an example of the data generation model Keywords: Induced Voltage, – Electric Fields, HVDC Transmission, Finite Element Method, Hybrid Transmission Lines. DOI: 10.7176/ISDE/10-1-0

Use of life cycle assessment (LCA) to develop a waste management system for Makkah, Saudi Arabia

Solid waste management has received increasing attention from researchers and decision makers, who are concerned about establishing sustainable waste management systems. The aim of the research was to improve a waste management system in Makkah, which has experienced significant variations in the amount of waste generated. The research was based on simulations of the consequences of different waste management treatment options and technologies, i.e. incineration, MRF, AD, composting and MBT. The methodology used to analyse and evaluate the data was based on life cycle assessment (LCA) and specialist packages such as the EASEWASTE tool. Makkah was selected as a case study for this research because it is the holiest city in the Islamic world. In 2012, for example, more than 13 million pilgrims travelled to Makkah during religious periods to perform Hajj or Umrah. Therefore, substantial changes in the population of Makkah throughout the year lead to a highly unstable rate of waste generation and characterisation. Furthermore, the only disposal method used in Makkah is landfill, without gas collection or leachate treatment systems. To the best of the author’s knowledge, no LCA studies have been conducted on any aspect of waste management in relation to Saudi Arabia, or Makkah in particular. The research has provided an understanding of the existing system of Makkah’s waste management during pilgrimage (Hajj and Umrah) and non-pilgrimage time periods. It has also provided a comprehensive approach to evaluate the current strategy of waste management used in Makkah, as well as the alternatives, by applying LCA methodology during different periods of pilgrimage

Evaluating the Use of Persuasive Design Cards for Novice Designers

This paper examines the use of physical persuasive cards for novice designers in ideation sessions. Through experimental study, we found that the tools a designer uses affects the kind of outcome they will get. The observations from four workshop sessions indicate that persuasive cards can be a two-edged sword, as they can affect the design process both positively and negatively. Additionally, in this paper, certain insights are highlighted when it came to how novice designers interacted with the cards. One of the most interesting behaviors witnessed was how participants were depending on the cards while debating their own ideas, and in some situations, neglecting their own or their colleagues’ ideas as they believed the cards knew better. Moreover, this study was able to report “The Commonality Effect” as a new finding, as session outcomes from with-card teams showed a higher rate of repetitiveness and commonality in the persuasive ideas. This paper provides 10 design card heuristics that can be used as a guideline when it comes to producing and evaluating card-based tools

Mortality Measurement Matters: Improving Data Collection and Estimation Methods for Child and Adult Mortality

Colin Mathers and Ties Boerma discuss three research articles in PLoS Medicine that address the measurement and analysis of child and adult mortality data collected through death registration, censuses, and household surveys

Economic Feasibility of a New Method to Estimate Mortality in Crisis-Affected and Resource-Poor Settings

INTRODUCTION: Mortality data provide essential evidence on the health status of populations in crisis-affected and resource-poor settings and to guide and assess relief operations. Retrospective surveys are commonly used to collect mortality data in such populations, but require substantial resources and have important methodological limitations. We evaluated the feasibility of an alternative method for rapidly quantifying mortality (the informant method). The study objective was to assess the economic feasibility of the informant method. METHODS: The informant method captures deaths through an exhaustive search for all deaths occurring in a population over a defined and recent recall period, using key community informants and next-of-kin of decedents. Between July and October 2008, we implemented and evaluated the informant method in: Kabul, Afghanistan; Mae La camp for Karen refugees, Thai-Burma border; Chiradzulu District, Malawi; and Lugufu and Mtabila refugee camps, Tanzania. We documented the time and cost inputs for the informant method in each site, and compared these with projections for hypothetical retrospective mortality surveys implemented in the same site with a 6 month recall period and with a 30 day recall period. FINDINGS: The informant method was estimated to require an average of 29% less time inputs and 33% less monetary inputs across all four study sites when compared with retrospective surveys with a 6 month recall period, and 88% less time inputs and 86% less monetary inputs when compared with retrospective surveys with a 1 month recall period. Verbal autopsy questionnaires were feasible and efficient, constituting only 4% of total person-time for the informant method's implementation in Chiradzulu District. CONCLUSIONS: The informant method requires fewer resources and incurs less respondent burden. The method's generally impressive feasibility and the near real-time mortality data it provides warrant further work to develop the method given the importance of mortality measurement in such settings

Documenting Mortality in Crises: What Keeps Us from Doing Better

Francesco Checchi and Les Roberts discuss how mortality among crisis-affected populations is currently documented, barriers to better documentation, and how these barriers might be overcome

A new method to estimate mortality in crisis-affected and resource-poor settings: validation study

Background Data on mortality rates are crucial to guide health interventions in crisis-affected and resource-poor settings. The methods currently available to collect mortality data in such settings feature important methodological limitations. We developed and validated a new method to provide near real-time mortality estimates in such settings