Análisis de vulnerabilidad de sistemas de potencia incluyendo incertidumbre en las variables con lógica difusa tipo 2

Objectives: This paper presents a new methodology for analyzing the vulnerability of power systems including uncertainty in some variables.Method: The methodology optimizes a Bi-level mixed integer model. Costs associated with power generation and load shedding are minimized at the lowest level whereas at the higher level the damage in the power system, represented by the load shedding, is maximized. Fuzzy logic type 2 is used to model the uncertainty in both linguistic variables and numeric variables. The linguistic variables model the factors of the geographical environment while numeric variables model parameters of the power system.Results: The methodology was validated by using a modified IEEE RTS-96 test system. The results show that by including particularities of the geographical environment different vulnerabilities are detected in the power system. Moreover, it was possible to identify that the most critical component is the line 112-123 because it had 16 attacks in 18 scenarios, and that the maximum load shedding of the system varies from 145 to 1258 MW.Conclusions: This methodology can be used to coordinate and refine protection plans of the power system infrastructure.Funding: EMC-UN research group.Contexto/Objetivo: En este trabajo se propone una nueva metodología de análisis de vulnerabilidad de sistemas de potencia incluyendo incertidumbre en algunas variables.Método: La metodología implementa un modelo de optimización binivel entera-mixta. En el nivel inferior se minimizan los costos asociados a la generación de energía y a la penalidad por deslastre de carga, mientras que en el nivel superior se maximiza el daño en el sistema de potencia representado por el deslastre de carga. Se utiliza la Lógica Difusa tipo 2 para modelar la incertidumbre tanto en variables lingüísticas como en variables numéricas. Las variables lingüísticas modelan los factores del entorno geográfico mientras que las variables numéricas modelan los parámetros del sistema de potencia.Resultados: La metodología se validó en un sistema de prueba IEEE RTS-96 modificado. Los resultados muestran que al incluir particularidades del entorno geográfico se detectan distintas vulnerabilidades en el sistema de potencia. Además, se logró identificar que el componente más crítico del sistema es la línea 112-123, ya que es atacada 16 veces en 18 escenarios contemplados, y que el máximo deslastre de carga en el sistema varía desde 145 a 1258 MW.Conclusiones: Esta metodología puede ser usada para coordinar y afinar los planes de seguridad de la infraestructura eléctrica del sistema.Financiamiento: Grupo de investigación EMC-U

Initiation and progression of ossification of the posterior longitudinal ligament of the cervical spine in the hereditary spinal hyperostotic mouse (twy/twy)

Ossification of the posterior longitudinal ligament (OPLL) is a significantly critical pathology that can eventually cause serious myelopathy. Ossification commences in the vertebral posterior longitudinal ligaments, and intensifies and spreads with the progression of the disease, resulting in osseous projections and compression of the spinal cord. However, the paucity of histological studies the underlying mechanisms of calcification and ossification processes remain obscure. The pathological process could be simulated in the ossifying process of the ligament in mutant spinal hyperostotic mouse (twy/twy). The aim of this study is to observe that enlargement of the nucleus pulposus followed by herniation, disruption and regenerative proliferation of annulus fibrosus cartilaginous tissues participated in the initiation of ossification of the posterior longitudinal ligament of twy/twy mice

Apoptosis of neurons and oligodendrocytes in the spinal cord of spinal hyperostotic mouse (twy/twy): possible pathomechanism of human cervical compressive myelopathy

Cervical compressive myelopathy is the most serious complication of cervical spondylosis or ossification of the posterior longitudinal ligament (OPLL) and the most frequent cause of spinal cord dysfunction. There is little information on the exact pathophysiological mechanism responsible for the progressive loss of neural tissue in the spinal cord of such patients. In this study, we used the spinal hyperostotic mouse (twy/twy) as a suitable model of human spondylosis, and OPLL to investigate the cellular and molecular changes in the spinal cord. Mutant twy/twy mouse developed ossification of the ligamentum flavum at C2-C3 and exhibited progressive paralysis

Associations of hemoglobin A1c with cognition reduced for long diabetes duration

IntroductionAssociations of some risk factors with poor cognition, identified prior to age 75, are reduced or reversed in very old age. The Protected Survivor Model predicts this interaction due to enhanced survival of those with extended risk factor duration. In a younger sample, this study examines the association of cognition with the mean hemoglobin A1c risk factor over the time at risk, according to its duration.MethodsThe interaction of mean hemoglobin A1c (averageâ =â 9.8%), evaluated over duration (averageâ =â 116.8â months), was examined for overall cognition and three cognitive domains in a sample of 150 â youngâ oldâ veterans (mean ageâ =â 70) with type 2 diabetes.ResultsThe predicted interactions were significant for overall cognition and attention, but not executive functions/language and memory.DiscussionFindings extend the Protected Survivor Model to a â youngâ oldâ sample, from the very old. This model suggests focusing on individuals with good cognition despite prolonged high risk when seeking protective factors.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/152553/1/trc2jtrci201911009.pd

Mejora en los tiempos de espera en el proceso de desembolso de créditos en entidades microfinancieras

In the business environment, the quality of customer service has been the vital attribute for the growth of the micro financial sectors in recent years, there is currently a wide variety of financial institutions with a range of services and products that offer the public the same premise of service, a situation that forces companies to keep their customers with high levels of satisfaction and to develop customer service strategies that are established as the main weapon for the difficult task of retention and loyalty of the most profitable customers for the company. This article aims to determine the variables that influence the quality of service in terms of waiting times for customers to receive the final product in the microfinance sector, through a qualitative methodology with the documentary review of references at the national level. and international and the analysis of the processes already established, as well as quantitative with the application of engineering tools such as the Queuing Theory through the observation and collection of data, which provided relevant indicators for the adaptation and rethinking of the current process with best practices to increase the quality of service, mainly in the process of disbursing loans to customers.En el entorno empresarial,  La calidad en la atención al cliente ha sido el atributo vital para el crecimiento de los sectores micro financieros en los últimos años, actualmente existen una gran diversidad de instituciones financieras con una oferta de servicios y productos que ofrecen al público la misma premisa de servicio, situación que obliga a las empresas a mantener a sus clientes con altos niveles de satisfacción y a desarrollar estrategias de servicio al cliente que se establezcan como el arma principal para la difícil labor de retención y la fidelización de los clientes más rentables para la empresa. El presente articulo tiene como objetivo determinar las variables que influyen en la calidad del servicio en cuanto a los tiempos de espera de los clientes para recibir el producto final en el sector micro financiero, mediante una metodología cualitativa con la revisión documental de referentes a nivel nacional e internacional y el análisis de los procesos ya establecidos, como también cuantitativa con la aplicación de herramientas de ingeniería como la Teoría de Colas  a través de la observación y  recolección de datos, el cual proporcionó indicadores relevantes para la adecuación y replanteamiento del proceso actual con mejores prácticas para aumentar la calidad del servicio, principalmente en el proceso de desembolso de créditos a los clientes

A methodology for investigating dust model performance using synergistic EARLINET/AERONET dust concentration retrievals

Systematic measurements of dust concentration profiles at a continental scale were recently made possible by the development of synergistic retrieval algorithms using combined lidar and sun photometer data and the establishment of robust remote-sensing networks in the framework of Aerosols, Clouds, and Trace gases Research Infra-Structure Network (ACTRIS)/European Aerosol Research Lidar Network (EARLINET). We present a methodology for using these capabilities as a tool for examining the performance of dust transport models. The methodology includes considerations for the selection of a suitable data set and appropriate metrics for the exploration of the results. The approach is demonstrated for four regional dust transport models (BSC-DREAM8b v2, NMMB/BSC-DUST, DREAM-ABOL, DREAM8-NMME-MACC) using dust observations performed at 10 ACTRIS/EARLINET stations. The observations, which include coincident multi-wavelength lidar and sun photometer measurements, were processed with the Lidar-Radiometer Inversion Code (LIRIC) to retrieve aerosol concentration profiles. The methodology proposed here shows advantages when compared to traditional evaluation techniques that utilize separately the available measurements such as separating the contribution of dust from other aerosol types on the lidar profiles and avoiding model assumptions related to the conversion of concentration fields to aerosol extinction values. When compared to LIRIC retrievals, the simulated dust vertical structures were found to be in good agreement for all models with correlation values between 0.5 and 0.7 in the 1-6 km range, where most dust is typically observed. The absolute dust concentration was typically underestimated with mean bias values of -40 to -20 mu g m(-3) at 2 km, the altitude of maximum mean concentration. The reported differences among the models found in this comparison indicate the benefit of the systematic use of the proposed approach in future dust model evaluation studies

The impact of SARS-CoV-2 in dementia across Latin America : A call for an urgent regional plan and coordinated response

The SARS-CoV-2 global pandemic will disproportionately impact countries with weak economies and vulnerable populations including people with dementia. Latin American and Caribbean countries (LACs) are burdened with unstable economic development, fragile health systems, massive economic disparities, and a high prevalence of dementia. Here, we underscore the selective impact of SARS-CoV-2 on dementia among LACs, the specific strain on health systems devoted to dementia, and the subsequent effect of increasing inequalities among those with dementia in the region. Implementation of best practices for mitigation and containment faces particularly steep challenges in LACs. Based upon our consideration of these issues, we urgently call for a coordinated action plan, including the development of inexpensive mass testing and multilevel regional coordination for dementia care and related actions. Brain health diplomacy should lead to a shared and escalated response across the region, coordinating leadership, and triangulation between governments and international multilateral networks

Blockade of interleukin-6 signaling inhibits the classic pathway and promotes an alternative pathway of macrophage activation after spinal cord injury in mice

Background Recent in vivo and in vitro studies in non-neuronal and neuronal tissues have shown that different pathways of macrophage activation result in cells with different properties. Interleukin (IL)-6 triggers the classically activated inflammatory macrophages (M1 phenotype), whereas the alternatively activated macrophages (M2 phenotype) are anti-inflammatory. The objective of this study was to clarify the effects of a temporal blockade of IL-6/IL-6 receptor (IL-6R) engagement, using an anti-mouse IL-6R monoclonal antibody (MR16-1), on macrophage activation and the inflammatory response in the acute phase after spinal cord injury (SCI) in mice. Methods MR16-1 antibodies versus isotype control antibodies or saline alone were administered immediately after thoracic SCI in mice. SC tissue repair was compared between the two groups by Luxol fast blue (LFB) staining for myelination and immunoreactivity for the neuronal markers growth-associated protein (GAP)-43 and neurofilament heavy 200 kDa (NF-H) and for locomotor function. The expression of T helper (Th)1 cytokines (interferon (IFN)-? and tumor necrosis factor-a) and Th2 cytokines (IL-4, IL-13) was determined by immunoblot analysis. The presence of M1 (inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS)-positive, CD16/32-positive) and M2 (arginase 1-positive, CD206-positive) macrophages was determined by immunohistology. Using flow cytometry, we also quantified IFN-? and IL-4 levels in neutrophils, microglia, and macrophages, and Mac-2 (macrophage antigen-2) and Mac-3 in M2 macrophages and microglia. Results LFB-positive spared myelin was increased in the MR16-1-treated group compared with the controls, and this increase correlated with enhanced positivity for GAP-43 or NF-H, and improved locomotor Basso Mouse Scale scores. Immunoblot analysis of the MR16-1-treated samples identified downregulation of Th1 and upregulation of Th2 cytokines. Whereas iNOS-positive, CD16/32-positive M1 macrophages were the predominant phenotype in the injured SC of non-treated control mice, MR16-1 treatment promoted arginase 1-positive, CD206-positive M2 macrophages, with preferential localization of these cells at the injury site. MR16-1 treatment suppressed the number of IFN-?-positive neutrophils, and increased the number of microglia present and their positivity for IL-4. Among the arginase 1-positive M2 macrophages, MR16-1 treatment increased positivity for Mac-2 and Mac-3, suggestive of increased phagocytic behavior. Conclusion The results suggest that temporal blockade of IL-6 signaling after SCI abrogates damaging inflammatory activity and promotes functional recovery by promoting the formation of alternatively activated M2 macrophages

The evolution of the ventilatory ratio is a prognostic factor in mechanically ventilated COVID-19 ARDS patients

Background: Mortality due to COVID-19 is high, especially in patients requiring mechanical ventilation. The purpose of the study is to investigate associations between mortality and variables measured during the first three days of mechanical ventilation in patients with COVID-19 intubated at ICU admission. Methods: Multicenter, observational, cohort study includes consecutive patients with COVID-19 admitted to 44 Spanish ICUs between February 25 and July 31, 2020, who required intubation at ICU admission and mechanical ventilation for more than three days. We collected demographic and clinical data prior to admission; information about clinical evolution at days 1 and 3 of mechanical ventilation; and outcomes. Results: Of the 2,095 patients with COVID-19 admitted to the ICU, 1,118 (53.3%) were intubated at day 1 and remained under mechanical ventilation at day three. From days 1 to 3, PaO2/FiO2 increased from 115.6 [80.0-171.2] to 180.0 [135.4-227.9] mmHg and the ventilatory ratio from 1.73 [1.33-2.25] to 1.96 [1.61-2.40]. In-hospital mortality was 38.7%. A higher increase between ICU admission and day 3 in the ventilatory ratio (OR 1.04 [CI 1.01-1.07], p = 0.030) and creatinine levels (OR 1.05 [CI 1.01-1.09], p = 0.005) and a lower increase in platelet counts (OR 0.96 [CI 0.93-1.00], p = 0.037) were independently associated with a higher risk of death. No association between mortality and the PaO2/FiO2 variation was observed (OR 0.99 [CI 0.95 to 1.02], p = 0.47). Conclusions: Higher ventilatory ratio and its increase at day 3 is associated with mortality in patients with COVID-19 receiving mechanical ventilation at ICU admission. No association was found in the PaO2/FiO2 variation