Local variations in spatial synchrony of influenza epidemics

Background: Understanding the mechanism of influenza spread across multiple geographic scales is not complete. While the mechanism of dissemination across regions and states of the United States has been described, understanding the determinants of dissemination between counties has not been elucidated. The paucity of high resolution spatial-temporal influenza incidence data to evaluate disease structure is often not available. Methodology and Findings: We report on the underlying relationship between the spread of influenza and human movement between counties of one state. Significant synchrony in the timing of epidemics exists across the entire state and decay with distance (regional correlation = 62%). Synchrony as a function of population size display evidence of hierarchical spread with more synchronized epidemics occurring among the most populated counties. A gravity model describing movement between two populations is a stronger predictor of influenza spread than adult movement to and from workplaces suggesting that non-routine and leisure travel drive local epidemics. Conclusions: These findings highlight the complex nature of influenza spread across multiple geographic scales. © 2012 Stark et al

Do antibody responses to the influenza vaccine persist year-round in the elderly? A systematic review and meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: The influenza vaccine is less immunogenic in older than younger adults, and the duration of protection is unclear. Determining if protection persists beyond a typical seasonal epidemic is important for climates where influenza virus activity is year-round. METHODS: A systematic review protocol was developed and registered with PROSPERO [CRD42015023847]. Electronic databases were searched systematically for studies reporting haemagglutination-inhibition (HI) titres 180-360days following vaccination with inactivated trivalent seasonal influenza vaccine, in adults aged ?65years. Geometric mean titre (GMT) and seroprotection (HI titre ?1:40) at each time point was extracted. A Bayesian model was developed of titre trajectories from pre-vaccination to Day 360. In the meta-analysis, studies were aggregated using a random-effects model to compare pre-vaccination with post-vaccination HI titres at Day 21-42 ('seroconversion'), Day 180 and Day 360. Potential sources of bias were systematically assessed, and heterogeneity explored. RESULTS: 2864 articles were identified in the literature search, of which nineteen met study inclusion/exclusion criteria. Sixteen studies contained analysable data from 2565 subjects. In the Bayesian model, the proportion of subjects seroprotected increased from 41-51% pre-vaccination to 75-78% at seroconversion. Seroprotection subsequently fell below 60% for all serotypes by Day 360: A/H1 42% (95% CI 38-46), A/H3 59% (54-63), B 47% (42-52). The Bayesian model of GMT trajectories revealed a similar pattern. By Day 360, titres were similar to pre-vaccination levels. In the meta-analysis, no significant difference in proportion of subjects seroprotected, 0 (-0.11, 0.11) or in log2GMT 0.30 (-0.02, 0.63) was identified by Day 360 compared with pre-vaccination. The quality of this evidence was limited to moderate on account of significant participant dropout. CONCLUSIONS: The review found consistent evidence that HI antibody responses following influenza vaccination do not reliably persist year-round in older adults. Alternative vaccination strategies could provide clinical benefits in regions where year-round protection is important

Development of ceftazidime resistance in an acute Burkholderia pseudomallei infection.

Burkholderia pseudomallei, a bacterium that causes the disease melioidosis, is intrinsically resistant to many antibiotics. First-line antibiotic therapy for treating melioidosis is usually the synthetic β-lactam, ceftazidime (CAZ), as almost all B. pseudomallei strains are susceptible to this drug. However, acquired CAZ resistance can develop in vivo during treatment with CAZ, which can lead to mortality if therapy is not switched to a different drug in a timely manner. Serial B. pseudomallei isolates obtained from an acute Thai melioidosis patient infected by a CAZ susceptible strain, who ultimately succumbed to infection despite being on CAZ therapy for the duration of their infection, were analyzed. Isolates that developed CAZ resistance due to a proline to serine change at position 167 in the β-lactamase PenA were identified. Importantly, these CAZ resistant isolates remained sensitive to the alternative melioidosis treatments; namely, amoxicillin-clavulanate, imipenem, and meropenem. Lastly, real-time polymerase chain reaction-based assays capable of rapidly identifying CAZ resistance in B. pseudomallei isolates at the position 167 mutation site were developed. The ability to rapidly identify the emergence of CAZ resistant B. pseudomallei populations in melioidosis patients will allow timely alterations in treatment strategies, thereby improving patient outcomes for this serious disease

Estimation of force of infection based on different epidemiological proxies: 2009/2010 Influenza epidemic in Malta

Information about infectious disease outbreaks is often gathered indirectly, from doctor's reports and health board records. It also typically underestimates the actual number of cases, but the relationship between the observed proxies and the numbers that drive the diseases is complicated, nonlinear and potentially time- and state-dependent. We use a combination of data collection from the 2009-2010 H1N1 outbreak in Malta, compartmental modelling and Bayesian inference to explore the effect of using various sources of information (consultations, doctor's diagnose, swabbing and molecular testing) on estimation of the effective basic reproduction ratio, Rt. Different proxies and different sampling rates (daily and weekly) lead to similar behaviour of Rt as the epidemic unfolds, although individual parameters (force of infection, length of latent and infectious period) vary. We also demonstrate that the relationship between different proxies varies as epidemic progresses, with the first period characterised by high ratio of consultations and influenza diagnoses to actual confirmed cases of H1N1. This has important consequences for modelling that is based on reconstructing influenza cases from doctor's reports

The design and implementation of Object Grammars

An Object Grammar is a variation on traditional BNF grammars, where the notation is extended to support declarative bidirectional mappings between text and object graphs. The two directions for interpreting Object Grammars are parsing and formatting. Parsing transforms text into an object graph by recognizing syntactic features and creating the corresponding object structure. In the reverse direction, formatting recognizes object graph features and generates an appropriate textual presentation. The key to Object Grammars is the expressive power of the mapping, which decouples the syntactic structure from the graph structure. To handle graphs, Object Grammars support declarative annotations for resolving textual names that refer to arbitrary objects in the graph structure. Predicates on the semantic structure provide additional control over the mapping. Furthermore, Object Grammars are compositional so that languages may be defined in a modular fashion. We have implemented our approach to Object Grammars as one of the foundations of the Ens (o) over bar system and illustrate the utility of our approach by showing how it enables definition and composition of domain-specific languages (DSLs). (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.</p

Toward Theoretical Techniques for Measuring the Use of Human Effort in Visual Analytic Systems

Visual analytic systems have long relied on user studies and standard datasets to demonstrate advances to the state of the art, as well as to illustrate the efficiency of solutions to domain-specific challenges. This approach has enabled some important comparisons between systems, but unfortunately the narrow scope required to facilitate these comparisons has prevented many of these lessons from being generalized to new areas. At the same time, advanced visual analytic systems have made increasing use of human-machine collaboration to solve problems not tractable by machine computation alone. To continue to make progress in modeling user tasks in these hybrid visual analytic systems, we must strive to gain insight into what makes certain tasks more complex than others. This will require the development of mechanisms for describing the balance to be struck between machine and human strengths with respect to analytical tasks and workload. In this paper, we argue for the necessity of theoretical tools for reasoning about such balance in visual analytic systems and demonstrate the utility of the Human Oracle Model for this purpose in the context of sensemaking in visual analytics. Additionally, we make use of the Human Oracle Model to guide the development of a new system through a case study in the domain of cybersecurity

LSST Science Book, Version 2.0

A survey that can cover the sky in optical bands over wide fields to faint magnitudes with a fast cadence will enable many of the exciting science opportunities of the next decade. The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) will have an effective aperture of 6.7 meters and an imaging camera with field of view of 9.6 deg^2, and will be devoted to a ten-year imaging survey over 20,000 deg^2 south of +15 deg. Each pointing will be imaged 2000 times with fifteen second exposures in six broad bands from 0.35 to 1.1 microns, to a total point-source depth of r~27.5. The LSST Science Book describes the basic parameters of the LSST hardware, software, and observing plans. The book discusses educational and outreach opportunities, then goes on to describe a broad range of science that LSST will revolutionize: mapping the inner and outer Solar System, stellar populations in the Milky Way and nearby galaxies, the structure of the Milky Way disk and halo and other objects in the Local Volume, transient and variable objects both at low and high redshift, and the properties of normal and active galaxies at low and high redshift. It then turns to far-field cosmological topics, exploring properties of supernovae to z~1, strong and weak lensing, the large-scale distribution of galaxies and baryon oscillations, and how these different probes may be combined to constrain cosmological models and the physics of dark energy.Comment: 596 pages. Also available at full resolution at http://www.lsst.org/lsst/sciboo

Mainstreaming domestic and gender-based violence into sociology and the criminology of violence

Sociological and criminological views of domestic and gender-based violencegenerally either dismiss it as not worthy of consideration, or focus on specificgroups of offenders and victims (male youth gangs, partner violence victims). Inthis paper, we take a holistic approach to violence, extending the definition fromthat commonly in use to encompass domestic violence and sexual violence. Weoperationalize that definition by using data from the latest sweep of the CrimeSurvey for England and Wales. By so doing, we identify that violence is currentlyunder-measured and ubiquitous; that it is gendered, and that other forms of violence (family violence, acquaintance violence against women) are equally ofconcern. We argue that violence studies are an important form of activity forsociologists

ICON 2019: International Scientific Tendinopathy Symposium Consensus: Clinical Terminology

© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.Background Persistent tendon pain that impairs function has inconsistent medical terms that can influence choice of treatment.1 When a person is told they have tendinopathy by clinician A or tendinitis by clinician B, they might feel confused or be alarmed at receiving what they might perceive as two different diagnoses. This may lead to loss of confidence in their health professional and likely adds to uncertainty if they were to search for information about their condition. Clear and uniform terminology also assists inter-professional communication. Inconsistency in terminology for painful tendon disorders is a problem at numerous anatomical sites. Historically, the term ‘tendinitis’ was first used to describe tendon pain, thickening and impaired function (online supplementary figure S1). The term ‘tendinosis’ has also been used in a small number of publications, some of which were very influential.2 3 Subsequently, ‘tendinopathy’ emerged as the most common term for persistent tendon pain.4 5 To our knowledge, experts (clinicians and researchers) or patients have never engaged in a formal process to discuss the terminology we use. We believe that health professionals have not yet agreed on the appropriate terminology for painful tendon conditions.Peer reviewedFinal Accepted Versio