Late-transition versus smooth H(z)-deformation models for the resolution of the Hubble crisis

Gravitational transitions at low redshifts (zt < 0.1) have been recently proposed as a solution to the Hubble and growth tensions. Such transitions would naturally lead to a transition in the absolute magnitude M of type Ia supernovae (SnIa) at zt (Late M Transitions - LMT) and possibly in the dark energy equation of state parameter w (Late w − M Transitions - LwMT). Here, we compare the quality of fit of this class of models to cosmological data, with the corresponding quality of fit of the cosmological constant model (ΛCDM) and some of the best smooth H(z) deformation models (wCDM, CPL, PEDE). We also perform model selection via the Akaike Information Criterion and the Bayes factor. We use the full CMB temperature anisotropy spectrum data, the baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) data, the Pantheon SnIa data, the SnIa absolute magnitude M as determined by Cepheid calibrators and the value of the Hubble constant H0 as determined by local SnIa calibrated using Cepheids. We find that smooth H(z) deformation models perform worse than transition models for the following reasons: 1) They have a worse fit to low-z geometric probes (BAO and SnIa data); 2) They favor values of the SnIa absolute magnitude M that are lower as compared to the value Mc obtained with local Cepheid calibrators at z < 0.01; 3) They tend to worsen the Ωm,0−σ8,0 growth tension. We also find that the w−M transition model (LwMT) does not provide a better quality of fit to cosmological data than a pure M transition model (LMT) where w is fixed to the ΛCDM value w = −1 at all redshifts. We conclude that the LMT model has significant statistical advantages over smooth late-time H(z) deformation models in addressing the Hubble crisis

Cosmology intertwined: A review of the particle physics, astrophysics, and cosmology associated with the cosmological tensions and anomalies

The standard Cold Dark Matter (CDM) cosmological model provides a good description of a wide range of astrophysical and cosmological data. However, there are a few big open questions that make the standard model look like an approximation to a more realistic scenario yet to be found. In this paper, we list a few important goals that need to be addressed in the next decade, taking into account the current discordances between the different cosmological probes, such as the disagreement in the value of the Hubble constant H0, the σ8–S8 tension, and other less statistically significant anomalies. While these discordances can still be in part the result of systematic errors, their persistence after several years of accurate analysis strongly hints at cracks in the standard cosmological scenario and the necessity for new physics or generalisations beyond the standard model. In this paper, we focus on the 5.0 σ tension between the Planck CMB estimate of the Hubble constant H0 and the SH0ES collaboration measurements. After showing the H0 evaluations made from different teams using different methods and geometric calibrations, we list a few interesting new physics models that could alleviate this tension and discuss how the next decade’s experiments will be crucial. Moreover, we focus on the tension of the Planck CMB data with weak lensing measurements and redshift surveys, about the value of the matter energy density m, and the amplitude or rate of the growth of structure (σ8, f σ8). We list a few interesting models proposed for alleviating this tension, and we discuss the importance of trying to fit a full array of data with a single model and not just one parameter at a time. Additionally, we present a wide range of other less discussed anomalies at a statistical significance level lower than the H0–S8 tensions which may also constitute hints towards new physics, and we discuss possible generic theoretical approaches that can collectively explain the non-standard nature of these signals. Finally, we give an overview of upgraded experiments and next-generation space missions and facilities on Earth that will be of crucial importance to address all these open questions