Climate and energy scenarios for Ireland to 2050 using the Irish TIMES energy systems model

Due to growing concerns regarding the anthropogenic interference with the climate system, countries across the world are being challenged to develop effective strategies to mitigate climate change by reducing or preventing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The European Union (EU) is committed to contribute to this challenge by setting a number of climate and energy targets for the years 2020, 2030 and 2050 and then agreeing effort sharing amongst Member States. This thesis focus on one Member State, Ireland, which faces specific challenges and is not on track to meet the targets agreed to date. Before this work commenced, there were no projections of energy demand or supply for Ireland beyond 2020. This thesis uses techno-economic energy modelling instruments to address this knowledge gap. It builds and compares robust, comprehensive policy scenarios, providing a means of assessing the implications of different future energy and emissions pathways for the Irish economy, Ireland’s energy mix and the environment. A central focus of this thesis is to explore the dynamics of the energy system moving towards a low carbon economy. This thesis develops an energy systems model (the Irish TIMES model) to assess the implications of a range of energy and climate policy targets and target years. The thesis also compares the results generated from the least cost scenarios with official projections and target pathways and provides useful metrics and indications to identify key drivers and to support both policy makers and stakeholder in identifying cost optimal strategies. The thesis also extends the functionality of energy system modelling by developing and applying new methodologies to provide additional insights with a focus on particular issues that emerge from the scenario analysis carried out. Firstly, the thesis develops a methodology for soft-linking an energy systems model (Irish TIMES) with a power systems model (PLEXOS) to improve the interpretation of the electricity sector results in the energy system model. The soft-linking enables higher temporal resolution and improved characterisation of power plants and power system operation Secondly, the thesis develops a methodology for the integration of agriculture and energy systems modelling to enable coherent economy wide climate mitigation scenario analysis. This provides a very useful starting point for considering the trade-offs between the energy system and agriculture in the context of a low carbon economy and for enabling analysis of land-use competition. Three specific time scale perspectives are examined in this thesis (2020, 2030, 2050), aligning with key policy target time horizons. The results indicate that Ireland’s short term mandatory emissions reduction target will not be achieved without a significant reassessment of renewable energy policy and that the current dominant policy focus on wind-generated electricity is misplaced. In the medium to long term, the results suggest that energy efficiency is the first cost effective measure to deliver emissions reduction; biomass and biofuels are likely to be the most significant fuel source for Ireland in the context of a low carbon future prompting the need for a detailed assessment of possible implications for sustainability and competition with the agri-food sectors; significant changes are required in infrastructure to deliver deep emissions reductions (to enable the electrification of heat and transport, to accommodate carbon capture and storage facilities (CCS) and for biofuels); competition between energy and agriculture for land-use will become a key issue. The purpose of this thesis is to increase the evidence-based underpinning energy and climate policy decisions in Ireland. The methodology is replicable in other Member States

How far away is hydrogen? Its role in the medium and long-term decarbonisation of the European energy system

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Multiple Sclerosis And Maternity: A Psychological Explorative Qualitative Research

Considering women living with multiple sclerosis (MS), motherhood may represent a complicated event. Our aim in this study is to explore the personal meanings related to maternity and illness in women living with this disease. We have involved twenty women suffering from MS and we have administered an open interview introduced by a trigger question as a prompt aimed to elicit a narrative of their experience of illness, wishes, doubts, fears and life-projects with regard to motherhood. The interviews were audio-recorded and transcribed verbatim in order to carry out an analysis of the textual corpus. We have performed the textual analysis of the transcribed interviews through the T-LAB software. Performing a cluster analysis, four thematic clusters emerged: Daily Pain, Relationship with Health Care Services, Closing of a Circle and Family Role. We have interpreted the relationship between these themes using factorial mapping through 3 meaning vectors, representative of the following dynamics: From Concrete to Abstract; From Life-Project to Relapse; From Health Agencies to Family Support. All these meaning-vectors seem to describe the relationship between maternity and illness. Some aspects, as the presence of a stable partner or knowing diagnosis for more than ten years, might represent supporting factors for a project of motherhood. Starting from the results obtained, we provide some proposals for the definition of goals and strategies of psychological counselling within the Health Care Services

The Role of Bioenergy in Ireland’s Low Carbon Future – is it Sustainable?

This paper assesses through scenario analysis the future role of bioenergy in a deep mitigation context. We focus in particular on the implications for sustainability – namely, competing demands for land-use, import dependency, availability of sustainable bioenergy and economics. The analysis here is limited to one Member State, Ireland, which is an interesting case study for a number of reasons, including significant import dependency and recent acceleration in renewable energy deployment. We used the Irish TIMES model, the energy systems model for Ireland developed with the TIMES model generator, for this scenario analysis. Long term, least cost mitigation scenarios point to bioenergy meeting more than half of Ireland’s energy needs by 2050. The results of this paper point to the impact of tightened sustainability criteria and limitation on bioenergy imports, namely the increased use of indigenous bioenergy feedstocks, increased electrification in the energy system, the introduction of hydrogen and higher marginal abatement costs

JRC-EU-TIMES 2017 Upgrade: Buildings and heating & cooling technologies

The present report describes two main upgrades that have been made to the JRC-EU-TIMES model during the year 2017: • An improvement of the description of residential and non-residential buildings • An update of data and a new representation for heating &cooling and heat distribution technologies The model updates have been validated through tests with the JRC-EU-TIMES model and with stylised models allowing isolating the observed effect of the changed model input. The updates performed greatly improve the ability of the JRC-EU-TIMES model to perform studies options for the decarbonisation of the heating and cooling sector.JRC.C.7-Knowledge for the Energy Unio

Mental Health in Multiple Sclerosis During the COVID-19 Outbreak: A Delicate Balance between Fear of Contagion and Resilience

The current study aimed at exploring the relationship between objective disability, illness perceptions, resilience, fear of COVID-19, and psychological distress (i.e., anxiety, depression, and stress) in people with multiple sclerosis (pwMS) during the second wave of the COVID-19 outbreak. A group of 122 pwMS recruited in an Italian university hospital took part in this cross-sectional monocentric study. Hierarchical multiple linear regression analyses were performed to assess the strength of the hypothesized associations. Results indicated that, differently from cognitive impairment, motor disability was positively associated with anxiety. However, accounting for subjective illness perception, such association was no longer significant. Moreover, accounting for both protective and risk factors in the models, even illness perception was no longer significant, highlighting the central role of resilience and fear of COVID-19 in explaining the negative emotional outcomes. Implications for clinical interventions and psychoeducational trainings are discussed

Zero carbon energy system pathways for Ireland consistent with the Paris Agreement

The Paris Agreement is the last hope to keep global temperature rise below 2°C. The consensus agrees to holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and to aim for 1.5°C. Each Party’s successive nationally determined contribution (NDC) will represent a progression beyond the party’s then current NDC, and reflect its highest possible ambition. Using Ireland as a test case, we show that increased mitigation ambition is required to meet the Paris Agreement goals in contrast to current EU policy goals of an 80–95% reduction by 2050. For the 1.5°C consistent carbon budgets, the technically feasible scenarios' abatement costs rise to greater than €8,100/tCO2 by 2050. The greatest economic impact is in the short term. Annual GDP growth rates in the period to 2020 reduce from 4% to 2.2% in the 1.5°C scenario. While aiming for net zero emissions beyond 2050, investment decisions in the next 5–10 years are critical to prevent carbon lock-in

Irish TIMES Energy Systems Model

Ireland faces very challenging short-term targets in the period to 2020 arising from EU obligations that are specified in EU Directives and Decisions. In addition to these short-term targets, the EU has committed to a long-term greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction of 80–95% below 1990 levels by 2050, and will require Member States to participate in effort-sharing to deliver deep emissions cuts. Policy-makers require comprehensive, robust, knowledge-based information to inform their decisions on how to meet these targets in a manner that will most benefit the Irish economy. This project draws on and contributes to the wealth of international energy-systems modelling research activity. It involved building, developing, calibrating, testing and running a (partial equilibrium) energysystems optimisation model for Ireland – the Irish TIMES model. The model was developed by University College Cork in collaboration with the Economic and Social Research Institute, E4SMA and KanORS over the period March 2009–November 2011. The real value of the Irish TIMES model is in the new insights it gives into some of the key challenges and decisions facing Ireland in energy and climate policy. The Irish TIMES model provides a means of assessing the implications of alternative future energy system pathways for: (i) the Irish economy (technology choices, prices, output, etc.), (ii) Ireland’s energy mix and energy dependence, and (iii) the environment. It is used in this project to assess the implications of emerging technologies and of mobilising alternative policy choices, such as meeting renewable energy targets and carbonmitigation strategies. The two key new perspectives this research project gives are: (i) a full energy-systems modelling approach and (ii) a focus on the medium term (to 2050) as well as the short term (to 2020). The scenario results respond directly to a number of key policy questions that could not be readily addressed before this model was developed. These relate to Ireland’s targets for: (i) renewable energy to 2020, (ii) GHG reduction to 2020 and (iii) long-term GHG emissions reduction to 2050. The results point to: 1 Alternative pathways for renewable energy to that currently being followed under Ireland’s National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP); 2 The need to urgently reassess Ireland’s renewable energy policies in light of the non-ETS emissions reduction target; 3 A particular focus on renewable heat, renewable transport and electrification of heat, in contrast to the current dominant focus on wind-generated electricity; 4 The impacts of imposing a higher emissions reduction target on Ireland’s energy system to compensate for limited mitigation options in agriculture; 5 The significant challenges in moving to a lowcarbon economy in 2050 with renewable energy accounting for 65–85% of energy supply (compared with 6.5% in 2011); 6 Electrification of heat in particular but also of transport, resulting in the share of energy use delivered by electricity increasing from 18% currently to 31–47% of energy use in 2050

Physical Exercise Moderates the Effects of Disability on Depression in People with Multiple Sclerosis during the COVID-19 Outbreak

Physical disability impacts psychosocial wellbeing in people with multiple sclerosis. However, the role of physical activity in this context is still debated. By taking advantage of a previous survey, conducted online from 22 April to 7 May 2020, we performed a post-hoc analysis with the aim to assess the associations between disability, physical exercise, and mental health in multiple sclerosis. We retrieved the following data: (i) sociodemographic information, (ii) changes in lifestyle (including exercise), (iii) physical disability, as measured with the Patient-Determined Disease Steps scale, and (iv) anxiety feelings and depressive symptoms assessed via the items included in the Quality of Life in Neurological Disorders measurement system. Examination of the interaction plot showed that the effect of disability on depression, but not on anxious symptoms, was significant for all levels of physical exercise (low: b = 1.22, 95% C.I. 0.85, 1.58, p < 0.001; moderate: b = 0.95, 95% C.I. 0.66, 1.24, p < 0.001; and high: b = 0.68, 95% C.I. 0.24, 1.13, p = 0.003). Based on these data, we can conclude that disability significantly impacted depression during the COVID-19 pandemic, with physical activity playing a moderating role. Our results suggest that favoring exercise in multiple sclerosis (MS) would ameliorate psychological wellbeing regardless of the level of physical disability