A Scalable Approach for Short-Term Predictions of Link Traffic Flow by Online Association of Clustering Profiles

Short-term prediction of traffic flows is an important topic for any traffic management control room. The large availability of real-time data raises not only the expectations for high accuracy of the forecast methodology, but also the requirements for fast computing performances. The proposed approach is based on a real-time association of the latest data received from a sensor to the representative daily profile of one among the clusters that are built offline based on an historical data set using Affinity Propagation algorithm. High scalability is achieved ignoring spatial correlations among different sensors, and for each of them an independent model is built-up. Therefore, each sensor has its own clusters of profiles with their representatives; during the short-term forecast operation the most similar representative is selected by looking at the last data received in a specified time window and the proposed forecast corresponds to the values of the cluster representative

Viscoelasticity and metastability limit in supercooled liquids

A supercooled liquid is said to have a kinetic spinodal if a temperature Tsp exists below which the liquid relaxation time exceeds the crystal nucleation time. We revisit classical nucleation theory taking into account the viscoelastic response of the liquid to the formation of crystal nuclei and find that the kinetic spinodal is strongly influenced by elastic effects. We introduce a dimensionless parameter \lambda, which is essentially the ratio between the infinite frequency shear modulus and the enthalpy of fusion of the crystal. In systems where \lambda is larger than a critical value \lambda_c the metastability limit is totally suppressed, independently of the surface tension. On the other hand, if \lambda < \lambda_c a kinetic spinodal is present and the time needed to experimentally observe it scales as exp[\omega/(\lambda_c-\lambda)^2], where \omega is roughly the ratio between surface tension and enthalpy of fusion

Emergence of collective changes in travel direction of starling flocks from individual birds fluctuations

One of the most impressive features of moving animal groups is their ability to perform sudden coherent changes in travel direction. While this collective decision can be a response to an external perturbation, such as the presence of a predator, recent studies show that such directional switching can also emerge from the intrinsic fluctuations in the individual behaviour. However, the cause and the mechanism by which such collective changes of direction occur are not fully understood yet. Here, we present an experimental study of spontaneous collective turns in natural flocks of starlings. We employ a recently developed tracking algorithm to reconstruct three-dimensional trajectories of each individual bird in the flock for the whole duration of a turning event. Our approach enables us to analyze changes in the individual behavior of every group member and reveal the emergent dynamics of turning. We show that spontaneous turns start from individuals located at the elongated edges of the flocks, and then propagate through the group. We find that birds on the edges deviate from the mean direction of motion much more frequently than other individuals, indicating that persistent localized fluctuations are the crucial ingredient for triggering a collective directional change. Finally, we quantitatively show that birds follow equal radius paths during turning allowing the flock to change orientation and redistribute risky locations among group members. The whole process of turning is a remarkable example of how a self-organized system can sustain collective changes and reorganize, while retaining coherence.Comment: 18 pages, 2 Videos adde

Fast estimation of point-to-point travel times for real-time vehicle routing

Abstract To provide the optimal allocation of requests to the available fleet vehicles, routing algorithms typically assume the availability of complete and correct information about point-to-point travel times. Actually, in real applications non-recurrent events and traffic conditions make the estimation and the prediction of such travel times a difficult task, further complicated in real-time applications by the dynamicity of the information and the number of needed estimates. In this paper we present a complete methodology to achieve a computation of point-to-point travel times on a large network which proves to be both extremely fast and consistent with dynamically updated traffic information

GReTA - a novel Global and Recursive Tracking Algorithm in three dimensions

Tracking multiple moving targets allows quantitative measure of the dynamic behavior in systems as diverse as animal groups in biology, turbulence in fluid dynamics and crowd and traffic control. In three dimensions, tracking several targets becomes increasingly hard since optical occlusions are very likely, i.e. two featureless targets frequently overlap for several frames. Occlusions are particularly frequent in biological groups such as bird flocks, fish schools, and insect swarms, a fact that has severely limited collective animal behavior field studies in the past. This paper presents a 3D tracking method that is robust in the case of severe occlusions. To ensure robustness, we adopt a global optimization approach that works on all objects and frames at once. To achieve practicality and scalability, we employ a divide and conquer formulation, thanks to which the computational complexity of the problem is reduced by orders of magnitude. We tested our algorithm with synthetic data, with experimental data of bird flocks and insect swarms and with public benchmark datasets, and show that our system yields high quality trajectories for hundreds of moving targets with severe overlap. The results obtained on very heterogeneous data show the potential applicability of our method to the most diverse experimental situations.Comment: 13 pages, 6 figures, 3 tables. Version 3 was slightly shortened, and new comprative results on the public datasets (thermal infrared videos of flying bats) by Z. Wu and coworkers (2014) were included. in A. Attanasi et al., "GReTA - A Novel Global and Recursive Tracking Algorithm in Three Dimensions", IEEE Trans. Pattern Anal. Mach. Intell., vol.37 (2015

Information transfer and behavioural inertia in starling flocks

Collective decision-making in biological systems requires all individuals in the group to go through a behavioural change of state. During this transition fast and robust transfer of information is essential to prevent cohesion loss. The mechanism by which natural groups achieve such robustness, however, is not clear. Here we present an experimental study of starling flocks performing collective turns. We find that information about direction changes propagates across the flock with a linear dispersion law and negligible attenuation, hence minimizing group decoherence. These results contrast starkly with present models of collective motion, which predict diffusive transport of information. Building on spontaneous symmetry breaking and conservation-law arguments, we formulate a theory that correctly reproduces linear and undamped propagation. Essential to this framework is the inclusion of the birds? behavioural inertia. The theory not only explains the data, but also predicts that information transfer must be faster the stronger the group’s orientational order, a prediction accurately verified by the data. Our results suggest that swift decision-making may be the adaptive drive for the strong behavioural polarization observed in many living groups.Instituto de Investigaciones Fisicoquímicas Teóricas y Aplicada

Right to Occupational Safety: Prevalence of Latent Tuberculosis Infection in Healthcare Workers. A 1-Year Retrospective Survey Carried out at Hospital of Lecce (Italy)

Prevention of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) in healthcare workers (HCWs) to ensure the “Right to Occupational Safety” is a special challenge globally, as HCWs have a higher risk of acquiring the infection in hospital settings because of frequent close exposure to patients suffering from tuberculosis (TB). Methods: Aretrospective study was performed with the aim of assessing the prevalence of LTBI related to demographical and occupational risk factors among HCWs employed in a large hospital in Italy. The study involved 1461 HCWs screened for LTBI by Mantoux tuberculin skin test (TST) and then confirmed with Interferon Gamma Release Assay (IGRA) test in case of positivity. Immunosuppressed and BGC-vaccinated workers were tested directly with IGRA. Results: LTBI was diagnosed in 4.1% of the HCWs and the prevalence resulted lower than other studies conducted in low TB incidence countries. The variables significantly linked with higher frequency of the infection were: age ≥40 years (OR = 3.14; 95% CI: 1.13–8.74; p < 0.05), length of service ≥15 years (OR = 4.11; 95% CI: 1.48–11.43; p < 0.05) and not being trained on TB prevention (OR = 3.46; 95% CI: 1.85–6.46; p < 0.05). Not trained HCWs presented a higher risk of LTBI also after adjustment for age and length of service, compared to trained HCWs. Conclusions: screening of HCWs for LTBI should be always considered in routinely occupational surveillance in order to early diagnose the infection and prevent its progression. Safety policies in hospital settings centered on workers’ training on TB prevention is crucial to minimize LTBI occurrence in HCWs

Opportunistic conformism

We study strategic interactions that may be affected by belief-dependent, conformist preferences. Specifically, we propose that beliefs about the behavior of individuals in the same role (i.e., beliefs about “peer behavior”) directly affect a player's utility. In examining conformism we propose an experimental design that verifies the presence of the relevant causality direction. Our data reveal “opportunistically conformist” behavior, as subjects are more likely to follow the purported majority if doing so implies an increase in expected material payoff. We provide a general framework that accounts for such a pattern

Superfluid transport of information in turning flocks of starlings

Collective decision-making in biological systems requires all individuals in the group to go through a behavioural change of state. During this transition, the efficiency of information transport is a key factor to prevent cohesion loss and preserve robustness. The precise mechanism by which natural groups achieve such efficiency, though, is currently not fully understood. Here, we present an experimental study of starling flocks performing collective turns in the field. We find that the information to change direction propagates across the flock linearly in time with negligible attenuation, hence keeping group decoherence to a minimum. This result contrasts with current theories of collective motion, which predict a slower and dissipative transport of directional information. We propose a novel theory whose cornerstone is the existence of a conserved spin current generated by the gauge symmetry of the system. The theory turns out to be mathematically identical to that of superfluid transport in liquid helium and it explains the dissipationless propagating mode observed in turning flocks. Superfluidity also provides a quantitative expression for the speed of propagation of the information, according to which transport must be swifter the stronger the group's orientational order. This prediction is verified by the data. We argue that the link between strong order and efficient decision-making required by superfluidity may be the adaptive drive for the high degree of behavioural polarization observed in many living groups. The mathematical equivalence between superfluid liquids and turning flocks is a compelling demonstration of the far-reaching consequences of symmetry and conservation laws across different natural systems

Peri-operative red blood cell transfusion in neonates and infants: NEonate and Children audiT of Anaesthesia pRactice IN Europe: A prospective European multicentre observational study

BACKGROUND: Little is known about current clinical practice concerning peri-operative red blood cell transfusion in neonates and small infants. Guidelines suggest transfusions based on haemoglobin thresholds ranging from 8.5 to 12 g dl-1, distinguishing between children from birth to day 7 (week 1), from day 8 to day 14 (week 2) or from day 15 (≥week 3) onwards. OBJECTIVE: To observe peri-operative red blood cell transfusion practice according to guidelines in relation to patient outcome. DESIGN: A multicentre observational study. SETTING: The NEonate-Children sTudy of Anaesthesia pRactice IN Europe (NECTARINE) trial recruited patients up to 60 weeks' postmenstrual age undergoing anaesthesia for surgical or diagnostic procedures from 165 centres in 31 European countries between March 2016 and January 2017. PATIENTS: The data included 5609 patients undergoing 6542 procedures. Inclusion criteria was a peri-operative red blood cell transfusion. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary endpoint was the haemoglobin level triggering a transfusion for neonates in week 1, week 2 and week 3. Secondary endpoints were transfusion volumes, 'delta haemoglobin' (preprocedure - transfusion-triggering) and 30-day and 90-day morbidity and mortality. RESULTS: Peri-operative red blood cell transfusions were recorded during 447 procedures (6.9%). The median haemoglobin levels triggering a transfusion were 9.6 [IQR 8.7 to 10.9] g dl-1 for neonates in week 1, 9.6 [7.7 to 10.4] g dl-1 in week 2 and 8.0 [7.3 to 9.0] g dl-1 in week 3. The median transfusion volume was 17.1 [11.1 to 26.4] ml kg-1 with a median delta haemoglobin of 1.8 [0.0 to 3.6] g dl-1. Thirty-day morbidity was 47.8% with an overall mortality of 11.3%. CONCLUSIONS: Results indicate lower transfusion-triggering haemoglobin thresholds in clinical practice than suggested by current guidelines. The high morbidity and mortality of this NECTARINE sub-cohort calls for investigative action and evidence-based guidelines addressing peri-operative red blood cell transfusions strategies. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, identifier: NCT02350348