Fox River Watershed Investigation: Stratton Dam to the Illinois River: Phase II Blackberry Creek and Poplar Creek Hydrologic and Water Quality Simulation Models: Executive Summary

Fox River Study Group, Inc.published or submitted for publicationis peer reviewe

Overview of recommended phase III water quality monitoring: Fox River watershed investigation

Includes bibliographical references (leaves 16-17)."Prepared for the Fox River Study Group.""December 2005"--Cover.Printed from URL

Fox River Watershed investigation: Stratton Dam to the Illinois River, Phase II: hydrologic models and water quality simulation models, part 2: Blackberry and Poplar Creek HSPF models, calibration and initial simulation results

"Report presented to the Fox River Study Group, Inc.""June 2007.

Using GIS to Evaluate the Effects of Flood Risk on Residential Property Values

Annually, flooding causes more property damage in the United States than any other type of natural disaster. One of the consequences of continued urbanization is the tendency for floodplains to expand, increasing flood risks in the areas around urban streams and rivers. Hedonic modeling techniques can be used to estimate the relationship between residential housing prices and flood risks. One weakness of hedonic modeling has been incomplete controls for locational characteristics influencing a given property. In addition, relatively primitive assumptions have been employed in modeling flood risk exposures. We use GIS tools to provide more accurate measures of flood risks, and a more thorough accounting of the locational features in the neighborhood. This has important policy implications. Once a complete hedonic model is developed, the reduction in property value attributed to an increase in flood risks can, under certain circumstances, be interpreted as the household’s willingness to pay for the reduction of flood risk. Willingness to pay estimates can in turn be used to guide policymakers as they assess community-wide benefits from flood control projects

Detection and Predictability of Spatial and Temporal Patterns and Trends of Riverine Nutrient Loads in the Midwest

The deleterious effects of multiple stressors on global water resources have become more significant over the past few decades. Anthropogenic activities such as industrialization, urbanization, deforestation, and increased application of agricultural nutrients have led to a decline in overall quality of our aquatic environment. Additionally, these activities have increased greenhouse gas concentrations globally, warming the earth’s atmosphere and eventually having a detrimental effect on global water and energy balances. The global water cycle has been altered, leading to its overall intensification and an increase in frequency of extreme floods and droughts. Addressing increasing water demands coupled with declining water quality and a depletion of water resources requires new approaches in water management. In determining optimum management actions, it is critical to understand the spatial and temporal variability and trends in water quantity and quality. This research aims to improve our knowledge of anthropogenic and natural impacts on water resources by evaluating and refining the science of predicting pollutant (nutrient and sediment) loadings from medium- to large-scale watersheds. To enable these goals, this research is centered on large watersheds in the Midwestern United States, which have been some of the primary sources of nutrient and sediment loadings to downstream water bodies such as the Gulf of Mexico and Lake Erie. In total, 14 watersheds in Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan, with extensive water quality datasets, are analyzed in different stages of this research. Most of these watersheds are predominantly agricultural with intensive row-cropped farmlands and have a network of sub-surface tile drainage systems. Pollutant loadings and associated hydrological processes have been simulated using four major modeling approaches: statistical modeling, empirical modeling, physically based modeling, and data mining methods. This report includes eight chapters. The first three chapters describe the problem and research objectives, study area, and data preparation and processing. Next, the impacts of available water quality data on concentration and load predictions and trend calculations are assessed based on traditional statistical methods and several new, improved, and modified approaches (Chapter 4). This segment emphasizes the difficulties in predicting nutrient load and concentration trends under changing climatic conditions, highlighting the importance of continuous nutrient monitoring. Next, two data mining techniques (the nearest-neighbor method and decision trees), scarcely used in hydrology, were applied to predict the missing Nitrate Nitrogen (NO3-N) concentrations for two extensively monitored watersheds in the Lake Erie basin. These predictions (Chapter 5) are important in load estimations and demonstrate the potential of data mining to produce results comparable with statistical and empirical methods presented in the previous chapter. In Chapter 6, statistical regression techniques are used to assess the role of large load events in predicting Total Suspended Solids (SS), Total Phosphorus (TP), and NO3-N annual loads. A novel constituent-specific baseflow separation technique based on mechanistic differences in nutrient and sediment loadings is proposed and applied. As a result, regression relationships between the largest annual loads and total annual loads were developed for all three constituents. An Analysis of Covariance (ANCOVA) indicated that these relationships are often statistically indistinguishable from each other when applied to watersheds with a similar land use. Then, in Chapter 7, the temporal patterns of pollutant loadings from large Midwestern watersheds are analyzed using circular statistics. Critical periods of high loadings, precipitation, and river flow were identified. While river flows and pollutant loadings are highest in late winter and early spring (e.g., March and April), rainfall totals are highest during late spring and early summer (e.g., May through August). Finally, Chapter 8 shows the results based on the physically based SWAT model. The model is calibrated for river discharge and water quality in the largest watershed in the Lake Erie basin, the Maumee River watershed. The calibrated model is used to gauge the impacts of future projected climate change from the mid-century and late-century time periods on the hydrology and water quality in the watershed. The results indicate that climate change could have a significant impact on sediment and nutrient loads, and that more detailed studies are needed to more accurately assess this impact and its confidence limits.published or submitted for publicationis peer reviewedOpe

Microstructure and Mechanical Properties of Rope Drum Casting

Ductile iron is a high-carbon-containing iron-based alloy in which the carbon, as graphite, is present in a spheroidal shape. With its good mechanical properties, ductile iron approximates the properties of steel and the cost per unit of strength compared to other materials. With suitable metallurgical treatments, we can influence its microstructure and resulting properties. Incorrect manufacturing technology and metallurgical processes give rise to casting defects and decreased mechanical properties. The contribution is devoted to measures to prevent the occurrence of defects in the casting of rope drums and to achieve the required mechanical properties of these castings. The most-common defects in these castings are micro-shrinkages in casting heat centers and unsatisfactory mechanical properties such as tensile strength, yield strength, and elongation

Future socioeconomic conditions may have a larger impact than climate change on nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea

The Baltic Sea is suffering from eutrophication caused by nutrient discharges from land to sea, and these loads might change in a changing climate. We show that the impact from climate change by mid-century is probably less than the direct impact of changing socioeconomic factors such as land use, agricultural practices, atmospheric deposition, and wastewater emissions. We compare results from dynamic modelling of nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea under projections of climate change and scenarios for shared socioeconomic pathways. Average nutrient loads are projected to increase by 8% and 14% for nitrogen and phosphorus, respectively, in response to climate change scenarios. In contrast, changes in the socioeconomic drivers can lead to a decrease of 13% and 6% or an increase of 11% and 9% in nitrogen and phosphorus loads, respectively, depending on the pathway. This indicates that policy decisions still play a major role in climate adaptation and in managing eutrophication in the Baltic Sea region.Peer reviewe

Impacts of changing society and climate on nutrient loading to the Baltic Sea

This paper studies the relative importance of societal drivers and changing climate on anthropogenic nutrient inputs to the Baltic Sea. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways are extended at temporal and spatial scales relevant for the most contributing sectors. Extended socioeconomic and climate scenarios are then used as inputs for spatially and temporally detailed models for population and land use change, and their subsequent impact on nutrient loading is computed. According to the model simulations, several factors of varying influence may either increase or decrease total nutrient loads. In general, societal drivers outweigh the impacts of changing climate. Food demand is the most impactful driver, strongly affecting land use and nutrient loads from agricultural lands in the long run. In order to reach the good environmental status of the Baltic Sea, additional nutrient abatement efforts should focus on phosphorus rather than nitrogen. Agriculture is the most important sector to be addressed under the conditions of gradually increasing precipitation in the region and increasing global demand for food. (C) 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.Peer reviewe

Biogeochemical functioning of the Baltic Sea

Location, specific topography, and hydrographic setting together with climate change and strong anthropogenic pressure are the main factors shaping the biogeochemical functioning and thus also the ecological status of the Baltic Sea. The recent decades have brought significant changes in the Baltic Sea. First, the rising nutrient loads from land in the second half of the 20th century led to eutrophication and spreading of hypoxic and anoxic areas, for which permanent stratification of the water column and limited ventilation of deep-water layers made favourable conditions. Since the 1980s the nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea have been continuously decreasing. This, however, has so far not resulted in significant improvements in oxygen availability in the deep regions, which has revealed a slow response time of the system to the reduction of the land-derived nutrient loads. Responsible for that is the low burial efficiency of phosphorus at anoxic conditions and its remobilization from sediments when conditions change from oxic to anoxic. This results in a stoichiometric excess of phosphorus available for organic-matter production, which promotes the growth of N2-fixing cyanobacteria and in turn supports eutrophication. This assessment reviews the available and published knowledge on the biogeochemical functioning of the Baltic Sea. In its content, the paper covers the aspects related to changes in carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus (C, N, and P) external loads, their transformations in the coastal zone, changes in organic-matter production (eutrophication) and remineralization (oxygen availability), and the role of sediments in burial and turnover of C, N, and P. In addition to that, this paper focuses also on changes in the marine CO2 system, the structure and functioning of the microbial community, and the role of contaminants for biogeochemical processes. This comprehensive assessment allowed also for identifying knowledge gaps and future research needs in the field of marine biogeochemistry in the Baltic Sea.Peer reviewe

Climate change in the Baltic Sea region : a summary

Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge of the effects of global warming on past and future changes in climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarised and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focuses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere. Based on the summaries of the recent knowledge gained in palaeo-, historical, and future regional climate research, we find that the main conclusions from earlier assessments still remain valid. However, new long-term, homogenous observational records, for example, for Scandinavian glacier inventories, sea-level-driven saltwater inflows, so-called Major Baltic Inflows, and phytoplankton species distribution, and new scenario simulations with improved models, for example, for glaciers, lake ice, and marine food web, have become available. In many cases, uncertainties can now be better estimated than before because more models were included in the ensembles, especially for the Baltic Sea. With the help of coupled models, feedbacks between several components of the Earth system have been studied, and multiple driver studies were performed, e.g. projections of the food web that include fisheries, eutrophication, and climate change. New datasets and projections have led to a revised understanding of changes in some variables such as salinity. Furthermore, it has become evident that natural variability, in particular for the ocean on multidecadal timescales, is greater than previously estimated, challenging our ability to detect observed and projected changes in climate. In this context, the first palaeoclimate simulations regionalised for the Baltic Sea region are instructive. Hence, estimated uncertainties for the projections of many variables increased. In addition to the well-known influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation, it was found that also other low-frequency modes of internal variability, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability, have profound effects on the climate of the Baltic Sea region. Challenges were also identified, such as the systematic discrepancy between future cloudiness trends in global and regional models and the difficulty of confidently attributing large observed changes in marine ecosystems to climate change. Finally, we compare our results with other coastal sea assessments, such as the North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment (NOSCCA), and find that the effects of climate change on the Baltic Sea differ from those on the North Sea, since Baltic Sea oceanography and ecosystems are very different from other coastal seas such as the North Sea. While the North Sea dynamics are dominated by tides, the Baltic Sea is characterised by brackish water, a perennial vertical stratification in the southern subbasins, and a seasonal sea ice cover in the northern subbasins.Peer reviewe