O Emprego da Análise de Risco como Ferramenta de Inteligência Estratégica

O presente trabalho objetiva apresentar a necessidade do aprimoramento do assessoramento ao processo decisório por meio do emprego da análise de risco como ferramenta de inteligência estratégica, de maneira conjugada com técnicas prospectivas, fazendo uma apresentação prévia do contexto atual, sua aplicabilidade, e a exposição do modelo norte-americano adotado pelo Departamento de Segurança Doméstica (DHS)

Análise de Riscos com Ênfase na Segurança Portuária: o processo de avaliação de riscos da CONPORTOS e ISPS Code

O estudo teve por objetivo geral estabelecer diretrizes de uma metodologia de análise de riscos com ênfase em instalações portuárias. A padronização de procedimentos a serem realizados nos portos brasileiros em cumprimento ao previsto no ISPS Code e nas Resoluções da CONPORTOS é elemento fundamental para a consolidação do Plano de Segurança Portuária.  Dessa forma, a iniciativa deste trabalho vem no sentido de formalizar um processo de análise de riscos com vistas a possibilitar a sua sedimentação entre os entes envolvidos nesse processo: trata-se da Análise de Riscos com Ênfase em Segurança Portuária (ARESP)

Crime-Terror Continuum: A Convergência em Moçambique

Within the world scenario, new non-state actors emerge, highlighting terrorist organizations, rebel groups and transnational criminal organizations, holders of force capable of destabilizing states. These same actors are coming together to act together, representing a new threat to international security. In order to better understand this dynamic, the study presents an analysis of the performance of the Islamist group Al-Shabaab, also known as Ahlu Sunnah Wa-Jama or ISIS-Mozambique, on the east coast of Africa, as well as its relationship with transnational illicit activities. that are conducted there. To this end, the study uses the Crime-Terror Continuum process, seeking to identify the level of involvement of the extremist group with the illicit economy existing in northern Mozambique. As a conclusion, the work presents Al-Shabaab as a hybrid organization, which uses illicit activities to finance its activities, but still maintains its motivation centered on ideological and non-economic principles, which can change in case the group succeeds in political and military control of the Cabo Delgado Region.Dentro del escenario mundial emergen nuevos actores no estatales, destacándose las organizaciones terroristas, los grupos rebeldes y las organizaciones criminales transnacionales, detentadores de fuerza capaces de desestabilizar a los Estados. Estos mismos actores se unen para actuar juntos, lo que representa una nueva amenaza para la seguridad internacional. Para comprender mejor esta dinámica, el estudio presenta un análisis de la actuación del grupo islamista Al-Shabaab, también conocido como Ahlu Sunnah Wa-Jama o ISIS-Mozambique, en la costa este de África, así como su relación con actividades ilícitas transnacionales que allí se realizan. Para ello, el estudio utiliza el proceso Crime-Terror Continuum, buscando identificar el nivel de involucramiento del grupo extremista con la economía ilícita existente en el norte de Mozambique. Como conclusión, el trabajo presenta a Al-Shabaab como una organización híbrida, que utiliza actividades ilícitas para financiar sus actividades, pero aún mantiene su motivación centrada en principios ideológicos y no económicos, que pueden cambiar en caso de que el grupo tenga éxito político y militar. control de la Región de Cabo Delgado.Dentro do cenário mundial, novos atores não-estatais surgem, destacando-se organizações terroristas, grupos rebeldes e organizações criminosas transnacionais, detentores de força capaz de desestabilizar estados. Esses mesmos atores estão se associando para atuar conjuntamente, representando uma nova ameaça à segurança internacional. No intuito de melhor compreender essa dinâmica, o estudo apresenta uma análise da atuação do grupo islamista Al-Shabaab, também conhecido como Ahlu Sunnah Wa-Jama ou ISIS-Moçambique, no litoral leste da África, bem como sua relação com as atividades ilícitas transnacionais que lá são conduzidas. Para tal, o estudo utiliza o processo do Crime-Terror Continuum, buscando identificar o nível de envolvimento do grupo extremista com a economia ilícita existente no norte de Moçambique. A título de conclusão, o trabalho apresenta o Al-Shabaab como sendo uma organização híbrida, a qual se vale das atividades ilícitas para o financiamento de suas atividades, mas ainda mantém sua motivação centrada em princípios ideológicos e não econômicos, o que pode se alterar caso o grupo venha a obter sucesso no controle político e militar da Região de Cabo Delgado

Effects of high-intensity interval and moderate-intensity continuous exercise on inflammatory, leptin, IgA, and lipid peroxidation responses in obese males

Purpose: To compare the effects of a single high-intensity interval exercise session (HIIE) with amoderate-intensity continuous exercise session (MICE) on the inflammatory profile, IgA levels, and lipid peroxidation in sedentary obese males. Methods: Ten sedentary obese men (age 28.5 ± 2.7 years; BMI 35.9 ± 4.9 kg/m2; body fat 40.6 ± 2.0%) performed three experimental sessions, on separate days with 1 week wash-out period between interventions, according to a randomized order: (1) HIIE: 10 × 60 s at 90% of the HRmax alternated by 60 s of active recovery; (2) MICE: 20min at 70% of the HRmax; (3) Rest—control. Blood and saliva samples were collected before, immediately after and 60min after the end of each session in order to analyse serum levels of cytokines, IgA, and lipoperoxidation markers. Results: Leptin levels decreased immediately after HIIE (P = 0.033) and was different from the MICE (P = 0.025). IFN-g levels were reduced immediately after (P = 0.032) and 60min after HIIE (P = 0.003) compared to baseline, and it also increased IL-4 levels immediately after exercise (P = 0.007) compared to resting values. MICE promoted an increase in IFN-g levels immediately after exercise (P = 0.025) and 60min after exercise (P = 0.004) in relation to baseline. Both exercise conditions increased IL-6 levels up to 60min after exercise (P < 0.05). The IFN-g/IL-4 ratio decreased immediately after (P = 0.002) and 60min after HIIE (P = 0.005) in relation to pre-exercise. No changes were found for IgA-S and TBARS for any of the conditions. Conclusion: A single HIIE session is able to decrease IFN-g/IL-4 ratio, indicating an anti-inflammatory response, without alterations in the function of the mucosal immune systemand lipoperoxidation. On the other hand, a brief session ofMICE induced changes in the pattern of cytokines associated with increased cellular immune function

Effectiveness of a 16-month multicomponent and environmental schoolbased intervention for recovery of poor income overweight/obese children and adolescents: study protocol of the health multipliers program

Background: Excess of weight is a serious public health concern in almost all countries, afflicting people of different ages and socioeconomic backgrounds. Studies have indicated the need for developing treatment strategies that intervene directly in the obesogenic environment. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of a multi-component and environmental school-based intervention, lasting 16 months, on the recovery of the nutritional status of lowincome children and adolescents with overweight/obesity. Methods/study design: The study was conducted by the Center for Recovery and Nutritional Education (CREN) in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Two schools located in poor neighborhoods were selected for the intervention, between March 2016 and June 2017. The participants were all students aged 8 to 12 years fromthe two participating schools. At the beginning of the intervention, anthropometric measurements were carried out to assess the nutritional status of the students. For convenience, students from one of the schools were considered as the control group, while those from the other school formed the experimental group. The intervention in the experimental group (n = 438) consists of the following weekly activities at school: psychological counseling in groups, theoretical/practical nutrition workshops, and supervised physical education classes. In addition, theoretical and practical educational activities are held regularly for parents, teachers, and cooks. Students with excess of weight (>= 1 body mass index [BMI] - for-age Z score, n = 138) received clinical and nutritional care periodically at the outpatient care at CREN. Students enrolled in the control group (n = 353) participated in psychological counseling groups and theoretical/practical nutrition workshops for 6 months held in the school environment to provide motivation to entire classrooms. In the following 10 months, students with excess of weight from the control group (n = 125) were invited to attend the routine outpatient care at CREN. Discussion: This study is the first to assess the effectiveness of a multi-component and environmental school-based intervention for the recovery of low-income, overweight/obese children and adolescents. If positive, the results demonstrate the feasibility for the recovery of excess of weight in populations of similar conditions and age.Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)Univ Fed Sao Paulo, UNIFESP, Dept Physiol, Rua Botucatu 862,2 Andar,Vila Clementino, BR-04023062 Sao Paulo, SP, BrazilUniv Fed Sao Paulo, UNIFESP, Hlth & Soc Inst, Dept Publ Hlth & Collect Hlth, Santos, SP, BrazilUniv Fed Sao Paulo, UNIFESP, Dept Pediat, Sao Paulo, SP, BrazilCREN, Sao Paulo, SP, BrazilUNIFESP, Hlth & Soc Inst, Dept Publ Hlth & Collect Hlth, Santos, SP, BrazilUNIFESP, Dept Human Movement Sci, Santos, SP, BrazilUniv Sao Paulo, Dept Comp Sci, Inst Math & Stat, Sao Paulo, SP, BrazilUniv Fed Sao Paulo, Paulista Sch Med, UNIFESP, Sao Paulo, SP, BrazilUniv Fed Sao Paulo, Dept Nephrol, UNIFESP, Sao Paulo, SP, BrazilUniv Fed Sao Paulo, UNIFESP, Dept Physiol, Rua Botucatu 862,2 Andar,Vila Clementino, BR-04023062 Sao Paulo, SP, BrazilUniv Fed Sao Paulo, UNIFESP, Hlth & Soc Inst, Dept Publ Hlth & Collect Hlth, Santos, SP, BrazilUniv Fed Sao Paulo, UNIFESP, Dept Pediat, Sao Paulo, SP, BrazilUNIFESP, Hlth & Soc Inst, Dept Publ Hlth & Collect Hlth, Santos, SP, BrazilUNIFESP, Dept Human Movement Sci, Santos, SP, BrazilUniv Fed Sao Paulo, Paulista Sch Med, UNIFESP, Sao Paulo, SP, BrazilUniv Fed Sao Paulo, Dept Nephrol, UNIFESP, Sao Paulo, SP, BrazilFAPESP: 2014/22351-2Web of Scienc

Geography and ecology shape the phylogenetic composition of Amazonian tree communities

Aim: Amazonia hosts more tree species from numerous evolutionary lineages, both young and ancient, than any other biogeographic region. Previous studies have shown that tree lineages colonized multiple edaphic environments and dispersed widely across Amazonia, leading to a hypothesis, which we test, that lineages should not be strongly associated with either geographic regions or edaphic forest types. Location: Amazonia. Taxon: Angiosperms (Magnoliids; Monocots; Eudicots). Methods: Data for the abundance of 5082 tree species in 1989 plots were combined with a mega-phylogeny. We applied evolutionary ordination to assess how phylogenetic composition varies across Amazonia. We used variation partitioning and Moran\u27s eigenvector maps (MEM) to test and quantify the separate and joint contributions of spatial and environmental variables to explain the phylogenetic composition of plots. We tested the indicator value of lineages for geographic regions and edaphic forest types and mapped associations onto the phylogeny. Results: In the terra firme and várzea forest types, the phylogenetic composition varies by geographic region, but the igapó and white-sand forest types retain a unique evolutionary signature regardless of region. Overall, we find that soil chemistry, climate and topography explain 24% of the variation in phylogenetic composition, with 79% of that variation being spatially structured (R$^{2}$ = 19% overall for combined spatial/environmental effects). The phylogenetic composition also shows substantial spatial patterns not related to the environmental variables we quantified (R$^{2}$ = 28%). A greater number of lineages were significant indicators of geographic regions than forest types. Main Conclusion: Numerous tree lineages, including some ancient ones (>66 Ma), show strong associations with geographic regions and edaphic forest types of Amazonia. This shows that specialization in specific edaphic environments has played a long-standing role in the evolutionary assembly of Amazonian forests. Furthermore, many lineages, even those that have dispersed across Amazonia, dominate within a specific region, likely because of phylogenetically conserved niches for environmental conditions that are prevalent within regions

Geographic patterns of tree dispersal modes in Amazonia and their ecological correlates

Aim: To investigate the geographic patterns and ecological correlates in the geographic distribution of the most common tree dispersal modes in Amazonia (endozoochory, synzoochory, anemochory and hydrochory). We examined if the proportional abundance of these dispersal modes could be explained by the availability of dispersal agents (disperser-availability hypothesis) and/or the availability of resources for constructing zoochorous fruits (resource-availability hypothesis). Time period: Tree-inventory plots established between 1934 and 2019. Major taxa studied: Trees with a diameter at breast height (DBH) ≥ 9.55 cm. Location: Amazonia, here defined as the lowland rain forests of the Amazon River basin and the Guiana Shield. Methods: We assigned dispersal modes to a total of 5433 species and morphospecies within 1877 tree-inventory plots across terra-firme, seasonally flooded, and permanently flooded forests. We investigated geographic patterns in the proportional abundance of dispersal modes. We performed an abundance-weighted mean pairwise distance (MPD) test and fit generalized linear models (GLMs) to explain the geographic distribution of dispersal modes. Results: Anemochory was significantly, positively associated with mean annual wind speed, and hydrochory was significantly higher in flooded forests. Dispersal modes did not consistently show significant associations with the availability of resources for constructing zoochorous fruits. A lower dissimilarity in dispersal modes, resulting from a higher dominance of endozoochory, occurred in terra-firme forests (excluding podzols) compared to flooded forests. Main conclusions: The disperser-availability hypothesis was well supported for abiotic dispersal modes (anemochory and hydrochory). The availability of resources for constructing zoochorous fruits seems an unlikely explanation for the distribution of dispersal modes in Amazonia. The association between frugivores and the proportional abundance of zoochory requires further research, as tree recruitment not only depends on dispersal vectors but also on conditions that favour or limit seedling recruitment across forest types

Geography and ecology shape the phylogenetic composition of Amazonian tree communities

AimAmazonia hosts more tree species from numerous evolutionary lineages, both young and ancient, than any other biogeographic region. Previous studies have shown that tree lineages colonized multiple edaphic environments and dispersed widely across Amazonia, leading to a hypothesis, which we test, that lineages should not be strongly associated with either geographic regions or edaphic forest types.LocationAmazonia.TaxonAngiosperms (Magnoliids; Monocots; Eudicots).MethodsData for the abundance of 5082 tree species in 1989 plots were combined with a mega-phylogeny. We applied evolutionary ordination to assess how phylogenetic composition varies across Amazonia. We used variation partitioning and Moran's eigenvector maps (MEM) to test and quantify the separate and joint contributions of spatial and environmental variables to explain the phylogenetic composition of plots. We tested the indicator value of lineages for geographic regions and edaphic forest types and mapped associations onto the phylogeny.ResultsIn the terra firme and várzea forest types, the phylogenetic composition varies by geographic region, but the igapó and white-sand forest types retain a unique evolutionary signature regardless of region. Overall, we find that soil chemistry, climate and topography explain 24% of the variation in phylogenetic composition, with 79% of that variation being spatially structured (R2 = 19% overall for combined spatial/environmental effects). The phylogenetic composition also shows substantial spatial patterns not related to the environmental variables we quantified (R2 = 28%). A greater number of lineages were significant indicators of geographic regions than forest types.Main ConclusionNumerous tree lineages, including some ancient ones (&gt;66 Ma), show strong associations with geographic regions and edaphic forest types of Amazonia. This shows that specialization in specific edaphic environments has played a long-standing role in the evolutionary assembly of Amazonian forests. Furthermore, many lineages, even those that have dispersed across Amazonia, dominate within a specific region, likely because of phylogenetically conserved niches for environmental conditions that are prevalent within regions

Pervasive gaps in Amazonian ecological research

Biodiversity loss is one of the main challenges of our time,1,2 and attempts to address it require a clear un derstanding of how ecological communities respond to environmental change across time and space.3,4 While the increasing availability of global databases on ecological communities has advanced our knowledge of biodiversity sensitivity to environmental changes,5–7 vast areas of the tropics remain understudied.8–11 In the American tropics, Amazonia stands out as the world’s most diverse rainforest and the primary source of Neotropical biodiversity,12 but it remains among the least known forests in America and is often underrepre sented in biodiversity databases.13–15 To worsen this situation, human-induced modifications16,17 may elim inate pieces of the Amazon’s biodiversity puzzle before we can use them to understand how ecological com munities are responding. To increase generalization and applicability of biodiversity knowledge,18,19 it is thus crucial to reduce biases in ecological research, particularly in regions projected to face the most pronounced environmental changes. We integrate ecological community metadata of 7,694 sampling sites for multiple or ganism groups in a machine learning model framework to map the research probability across the Brazilian Amazonia, while identifying the region’s vulnerability to environmental change. 15%–18% of the most ne glected areas in ecological research are expected to experience severe climate or land use changes by 2050. This means that unless we take immediate action, we will not be able to establish their current status, much less monitor how it is changing and what is being lostinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio