Reproducibility of quantitative (R)-[11C]verapamil studies

Background P-glycoprotein [Pgp] dysfunction may be involved in neurodegenerative diseases, such as Alzheimer's disease, and in drug resistant epilepsy. Positron emission tomography using the Pgp substrate tracer (R)-[11C]verapamil enables in vivo quantification of Pgp function at the human blood-brain barrier. Knowledge of test-retest variability is important for assessing changes over time or after treatment with disease-modifying drugs. The purpose of this study was to assess reproducibility of several tracer kinetic models used for analysis of (R)-[11C]verapamil data. Methods Dynamic (R)-[11C]verapamil scans with arterial sampling were performed twice on the same day in 13 healthy controls. Data were reconstructed using both filtered back projection [FBP] and partial volume corrected ordered subset expectation maximization [PVC OSEM]. All data were analysed using single-tissue and two-tissue compartment models. Global and regional test-retest variability was determined for various outcome measures. Results Analysis using the Akaike information criterion showed that a constrained two-tissue compartment model provided the best fits to the data. Global test-retest variability of the volume of distribution was comparable for single-tissue (6%) and constrained two-tissue (9%) compartment models. Using a single-tissue compartment model covering the first 10 min of data yielded acceptable global test-retest variability (9%) for the outcome measure K1. Test-retest variability of binding potential derived from the constrained two-tissue compartment model was less robust, but still acceptable (22%). Test-retest variability was comparable for PVC OSEM and FBP reconstructed data. Conclusion The model of choice for analysing (R)-[11C]verapamil data is a constrained two-tissue compartment model

A cost effectiveness and capacity analysis for the introduction of universal rotavirus vaccination in Kenya : comparison between Rotarix and RotaTeq vaccines

Background Diarrhoea is an important cause of death in the developing world, and rotavirus is the single most important cause of diarrhoea associated mortality. Two vaccines (Rotarix and RotaTeq) are available to prevent rotavirus disease. This analysis was undertaken to aid the decision in Kenya as to which vaccine to choose when introducing rotavirus vaccination. Methods Cost-effectiveness modelling, using national and sentinel surveillance data, and an impact assessment on the cold chain. Results The median estimated incidence of rotavirus disease in Kenya was 3015 outpatient visits, 279 hospitalisations and 65 deaths per 100,000 children under five years of age per year. Cumulated over the first five years of life vaccination was predicted to prevent 34% of the outpatient visits, 31% of the hospitalizations and 42% of the deaths. The estimated prevented costs accumulated over five years totalled US$1,782,761 (direct and indirect costs) with an associated 48,585 DALYs. From a societal perspective Rotarix had a cost-effectiveness ratio of US$142 per DALY (US$5 for the full course of two doses) and RotaTeq US$288 per DALY ($10.5 for the full course of three doses). RotaTeq will have a bigger impact on the cold chain compared to Rotarix. Conclusion Vaccination against rotavirus disease is cost-effective for Kenya irrespective of the vaccine. Of the two vaccines Rotarix was the preferred choice due to a better cost-effectiveness ratio, the presence of a vaccine vial monitor, the requirement of fewer doses and less storage space, and proven thermo-stability

C-reactive protein in degenerative aortic valve stenosis

Degenerative aortic valve stenosis includes a range of disorder severity from mild leaflet thickening without valve obstruction, "aortic sclerosis", to severe calcified aortic stenosis. It is a slowly progressive active process of valve modification similar to atherosclerosis for cardiovascular risk factors, lipoprotein deposition, chronic inflammation, and calcification. Systemic signs of inflammation, as wall and serum C-reactive protein, similar to those found in atherosclerosis, are present in patients with degenerative aortic valve stenosis and may be expression of a common disease, useful in monitoring of stenosis progression

A universal model for mobility and migration patterns

Introduced in its contemporary form by George Kingsley Zipf in 1946, but with roots that go back to the work of Gaspard Monge in the 18th century, the gravity law is the prevailing framework to predict population movement, cargo shipping volume, inter-city phone calls, as well as bilateral trade flows between nations. Despite its widespread use, it relies on adjustable parameters that vary from region to region and suffers from known analytic inconsistencies. Here we introduce a stochastic process capturing local mobility decisions that helps us analytically derive commuting and mobility fluxes that require as input only information on the population distribution. The resulting radiation model predicts mobility patterns in good agreement with mobility and transport patterns observed in a wide range of phenomena, from long-term migration patterns to communication volume between different regions. Given its parameter-free nature, the model can be applied in areas where we lack previous mobility measurements, significantly improving the predictive accuracy of most of phenomena affected by mobility and transport processes.Comment: Main text and supplementary informatio

IACT observations of gamma-ray bursts: prospects for the Cherenkov Telescope Array

Gamma rays at rest frame energies as high as 90 GeV have been reported from gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) by the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT). There is considerable hope that a confirmed GRB detection will be possible with the upcoming Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA), which will have a larger effective area and better low-energy sensitivity than current-generation imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes (IACTs). To estimate the likelihood of such a detection, we have developed a phenomenological model for GRB emission between 1 GeV and 1 TeV that is motivated by the high-energy GRB detections of Fermi-LAT, and allows us to extrapolate the statistics of GRBs seen by lower energy instruments such as the Swift-BAT and BATSE on the Compton Gamma-ray Observatory. We show a number of statistics for detected GRBs, and describe how the detectability of GRBs with CTA could vary based on a number of parameters, such as the typical observation delay between the burst onset and the start of ground observations. We also consider the possibility of using GBM on Fermi as a finder of GRBs for rapid ground follow-up. While the uncertainty of GBM localization is problematic, the small field-of-view for IACTs can potentially be overcome by scanning over the GBM error region. Overall, our results indicate that CTA should be able to detect one GRB every 20 to 30 months with our baseline instrument model, assuming consistently rapid pursuit of GRB alerts, and provided that spectral breaks below 100 GeV are not a common feature of the bright GRB population. With a more optimistic instrument model, the detection rate can be as high as 1 to 2 GRBs per year.Comment: 28 pages, 24 figures, 4 tables, submitted to Experimental Astronom

Quantification of the novel N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor ligand [11C]GMOM in man

[11C]GMOM (carbon-11 labeled N-(2-chloro-5-thiomethylphenyl)-N0-(3-[11C]methoxy-phenyl)-N0-methylguanidine) is a PET ligand that binds to the N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor with high specificity and affinity. The purpose of this first in human study was to evaluate kinetics of [11C]GMOM in the healthy human brain and to identify the optimal pharmacokinetic model for quantifying these kinetics, both before and after a pharmacological dose of S-ketamine. Dynamic 90 min [11C]GMOM PET scans were obtained from 10 subjects. In six of the 10 subjects, a second PET scan was performed following an S-ketamine challenge. Metabolite corrected plasma input functions were obtained for all scans. Regional time activity curves were fitted to various single- and two-tissue compartment models. Best fits were obtained using a two-tissue irreversible model with blood volume parameter. The highest net influx rate (Ki) of [11C]GMOM was observed in regions with high N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor density, such as hippocampus and thalamus. A significant reduction in the Ki was observed for the entire brain after administration of ketamine, suggesting specific binding to the N-methyl-D-aspartate receptors. This initial study suggests that the [11C]GMOM could be used for quantification of N-methyl-D-aspartate receptors

Predicting progression of mild cognitive impairment to dementia using neuropsychological data: a supervised learning approach using time windows

Background: Predicting progression from a stage of Mild Cognitive Impairment to dementia is a major pursuit in current research. It is broadly accepted that cognition declines with a continuum between MCI and dementia. As such, cohorts of MCI patients are usually heterogeneous, containing patients at different stages of the neurodegenerative process. This hampers the prognostic task. Nevertheless, when learning prognostic models, most studies use the entire cohort of MCI patients regardless of their disease stages. In this paper, we propose a Time Windows approach to predict conversion to dementia, learning with patients stratified using time windows, thus fine-tuning the prognosis regarding the time to conversion. Methods: In the proposed Time Windows approach, we grouped patients based on the clinical information of whether they converted (converter MCI) or remained MCI (stable MCI) within a specific time window. We tested time windows of 2, 3, 4 and 5 years. We developed a prognostic model for each time window using clinical and neuropsychological data and compared this approach with the commonly used in the literature, where all patients are used to learn the models, named as First Last approach. This enables to move from the traditional question "Will a MCI patient convert to dementia somewhere in the future" to the question "Will a MCI patient convert to dementia in a specific time window". Results: The proposed Time Windows approach outperformed the First Last approach. The results showed that we can predict conversion to dementia as early as 5 years before the event with an AUC of 0.88 in the cross-validation set and 0.76 in an independent validation set. Conclusions: Prognostic models using time windows have higher performance when predicting progression from MCI to dementia, when compared to the prognostic approach commonly used in the literature. Furthermore, the proposed Time Windows approach is more relevant from a clinical point of view, predicting conversion within a temporal interval rather than sometime in the future and allowing clinicians to timely adjust treatments and clinical appointments.FCT under the Neuroclinomics2 project [PTDC/EEI-SII/1937/2014, SFRH/BD/95846/2013]; INESC-ID plurianual [UID/CEC/50021/2013]; LASIGE Research Unit [UID/CEC/00408/2013

Environmental differences between sites control the diet and nutrition of the carnivorous plant Drosera rotundifolia

Background and aims: Carnivorous plants are sensitive to small changes in resource availability, but few previous studies have examined how differences in nutrient and prey availability affect investment in and the benefit of carnivory. We studied the impact of site-level differences in resource availability on ecophysiological traits of carnivory for Drosera rotundifolia L. Methods: We measured prey availability, investment in carnivory (leaf stickiness), prey capture and diet of plants growing in two bogs with differences in N deposition and plant available N: Cors Fochno (0.62 g m−2 yr.−1, 353 μg l−1), Whixall Moss (1.37 g m−2 yr.−1, 1505 μg l−1). The total N amount per plant and the contributions of prey/root N to the plants’ N budget were calculated using a single isotope natural abundance method. Results: Plants at Whixall Moss invested less in carnivory, were less likely to capture prey, and were less reliant on prey-derived N (25.5% compared with 49.4%). Actual prey capture did not differ between sites. Diet composition differed – Cors Fochno plants captured 62% greater proportions of Diptera. Conclusions: Our results show site-level differences in plant diet and nutrition consistent with differences in resource availability. Similarity in actual prey capture may be explained by differences in leaf stickiness and prey abundance