Forecasting model for extreme rainfall using artificial neural network

Successive days of rainfall are known to cause flood. The forecasting of daily rainfall helps to estimate the occurrences of rainfall and number of wet days, while with a maximum of five consecutive days of rainfall, the magnitude of rainfall within a specified period can predict what may signify rainfall extremes. In this study, data mining and back propagation neural network (BPNN) have been established in developing the extreme rainfall forecasting models. Four forecasting models were developed to forecast the maximum five consecutive days of rainfall amount (PX5D) of the next month. The models only use the extreme rainfall indices outlined by STARDEX as predictors in forecasting. The first developed model uses six extreme rainfall indices in forecasting, the second model uses the values of the PX5D index of a three-month delay, the third model uses the previous six-month PX5D values, while the fourth model was developed to forecast the PX5D using the values of the same index of a twelve-month delay. It was found that when using the six extreme rainfall core indices, the forecasting error was the lowest. A regression model has been developed using the six extreme rainfall indices to compare the performance measurements with the BPNN model that uses the same indice

Primary laryngectomy versus salvage laryngectomy: A comparison of outcomes in the chemoradiation era

OBJECTIVE: To compare primary total laryngectomy (TL) versus salvage TL and analyze the functional outcomes, complications, recurrence rates, and survival. STUDY DESIGN: Case series with chart review. SETTING: Tertiary care center. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: Fifteen-year retrospective analysis of 208 patients with laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma treated by TL was completed. Outcome measures included survival, swallowing rehabilitation, speech rehabilitation, complications, and assessment of comorbidity. Survival estimates were analyzed with Kaplan-Meier method, and regression analysis utilized the Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: Alaryngeal speech was not significantly different between primary TL and salvage TL, 68% versus 82% (P = 0.14). Comparing primary and salvage TL, the perioperative complication rate was 33% versus 48% (P = 0.036). Thirty-six percent of primary TL patients had recurrence compared to 26% of salvage patients. Five-year overall survival rates between primary TL and salvage TL were not significantly different (P = 0.68). Comorbidity was an independent predictor of survival. CONCLUSIONS: Development of a functional voice was not significantly different between salvage and primary TL patients, with a majority achieving alaryngeal speech. Perioperative complications were more prevalent in the salvage TL group. Recurrence and survival are significantly associated with comorbidity status. Level of evidence: 4 Laryngoscope, 130:2179-2185, 2020

Primary Laryngectomy Versus Salvage Laryngectomy: A Comparison of Outcomes in the Chemoradiation Era

OBJECTIVE: To compare primary total laryngectomy (TL) versus salvage TL and analyze the functional outcomes, complications, recurrence rates, and survival. STUDY DESIGN: Case series with chart review. SETTING: Tertiary care center. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: Fifteen-year retrospective analysis of 208 patients with laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma treated by TL was completed. Outcome measures included survival, swallowing rehabilitation, speech rehabilitation, complications, and assessment of comorbidity. Survival estimates were analyzed with Kaplan-Meier method, and regression analysis utilized the Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: Alaryngeal speech was not significantly different between primary TL and salvage TL, 68% versus 82% (P = 0.14). Comparing primary and salvage TL, the perioperative complication rate was 33% versus 48% (P = 0.036). Thirty-six percent of primary TL patients had recurrence compared to 26% of salvage patients. Five-year overall survival rates between primary TL and salvage TL were not significantly different (P = 0.68). Comorbidity was an independent predictor of survival. CONCLUSIONS: Development of a functional voice was not significantly different between salvage and primary TL patients, with a majority achieving alaryngeal speech. Perioperative complications were more prevalent in the salvage TL group. Recurrence and survival are significantly associated with comorbidity status. Level of evidence: 4 Laryngoscope, 130:2179-2185, 2020