Vulnerability to Rainfall-Induced Landslide of Three Communities in Infanta, Quezon, Philippines

Four successive tropical cyclones hit the Philippines and brought damages to several towns in the provinces of Quezon and Aurora between November 14 and December 4 in 2004. The municipalities of Infanta, Real, and General Nakar were severely damaged and as a result the communities were exposed to physical risks and experienced socio-economic difficulties. To affect policies and plans in avoiding risks brought about by disasters that may happen in the future, the vulnerabilities to rainfall-induced landslide of the three most devastated barangays in Infanta, Quezon, namely Pinaglapatan, Ilog, and Magsaysay, were determined using an agent-based model. This study determined the vulnerability of three communities based on the framework that vulnerability is influenced by the amount and intensity of rainfall received by the area in a given time, the conditions of the biophysical characteristics of the area, and the socio-economic profile of the community in the area. A time series model to capture the long-term rainfall pattern in the area was developed with consideration to the occurrences of extreme events. Biophysical studies were conducted on the study sites to determine their respective characteristics using topography (slope and elevation), land-use, and soil type as parameters. Through a respondent-type survey, the socio-economic profiles of the communities were characterized using income, livelihood, participation in social networks, and existence of community early warning systems, among others, as parameters. Because of the barangay

Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales

Bringing the Nature Futures Framework to life: creating a set of illustrative narratives of nature futures

To halt further destruction of the biosphere, most people and societies around the globe need to transform their relationships with nature. The internationally agreed vision under the Convention of Biological Diversity—Living in harmony with nature—is that “By 2050, biodiversity is valued, conserved, restored and wisely used, maintaining ecosystem services, sustaining a healthy planet and delivering benefts essential for all people”. In this context, there are a variety of debates between alternative perspectives on how to achieve this vision. Yet, scenarios and models that are able to explore these debates in the context of “living in harmony with nature” have not been widely developed. To address this gap, the Nature Futures Framework has been developed to catalyse the development of new scenarios and models that embrace a plurality of perspectives on desirable futures for nature and people. In this paper, members of the IPBES task force on scenarios and models provide an example of how the Nature Futures Framework can be implemented for the development of illustrative narratives representing a diversity of desirable nature futures: information that can be used to assess and develop scenarios and models whilst acknowledging the underpinning value perspectives on nature. Here, the term illustrative refects the multiple ways in which desired nature futures can be captured by these narratives. In addition, to explore the interdependence between narratives, and therefore their potential to be translated into scenarios and models, the six narratives developed here were assessed around three areas of the transformative change debate, specifcally, (1) land sparing vs. land sharing, (2) Half Earth vs. Whole Earth conservation, and (3) green growth vs. post-growth economic development. The paper concludes with an assessment of how the Nature Futures Framework could be used to assist in developing and articulating transformative pathways towards desirable nature futures

Measuring disaster resilience in the Philippines: evidence using network data envelopment analysis

In this paper, we assess the resilience of households in responding to climate-induced calamities such as flash floods and landslides in Compostela Valley of the Philippines. Using cross-sectional survey data collected in 2013 and 2014, we applied the integrated data envelopment analysis (DEA)-based network model to estimate a composite resilience score, ranging from zero to one, and decomposed into coping and adaptive capacities. The overall resilience score of households is, on average, 0.75, while the average coping and adaptive capacity scores are 0.61 and 0.92, respectively. The correlation of the overall resilience with the adaptive capacity is significantly higher than that of the overall resilience and the coping capacity. This implies that adaptation measures of households mainly depend on external assistance that enables vulnerable households to recover from calamity, and thus effectively achieve post-event life stabilization. No significant difference in the overall resilience scores is found among villages in the surveyed area

The Role of Bioenergy in Enhancing Energy, Food and Ecosystem Sustainability Based on Societal Perceptions and Preferences in Asia

This paper discussed the analysis of the survey on sustainability of bioenergy conducted in the Philippines, India and China. It acquired general perceptions of the people by asking them (a) specific questions about their level of familiarity with bioenergy; (b) relationship of their work to bioenergy; and (c) their opinion on contribution of various feedstock on the economy and impact of bioenergy production on food security. In addition to these questions, we estimated preference weights of various feedstock based on the conjoint choices on bioenergy’s contribution to social stability, social welfare and ecological balance. The estimates revealed significant trade-offs not only among these three dimensions of sustainability but also the relative importance of energy security, food security and ecosystem capacity to other economic, social and environmental objectives. The types of first generation feedstock that are currently used for biofuel production in the respective countries and those that offer alternative household use are perceived as important to the economy and preferred bioenergy feedstock. Based on the results of the study, the preferred role of bioenergy for sustainable development reflects the social and economic concerns in the respective Asian countries, e.g., energy security in China, food security in India, and ecosystem degradation in the Philippines

Options for governance and decision-making across scales and sectors

Sustaining nature and nature’s contributions to people (NCP) in the Asia-Pacific region is hinged on a multi-scale, multi-sectoral and multi-stakeholder governance regime (well established). The expert driven and centralised governance systems that still exist in varying intensities in almost all parts of the region, are insufficient for promoting a network-based governance linking sub-national and national political hierarchies to regional and global frameworks and adaptive co-management with various local stakeholders from communities, the private sector and civil society. Good environmental governance, which enables integration of regional and global BES frameworks to national sectoral policies and mainstreaming of BES policies into sub-national and local development plans, programs and actions, is crucial for achieving a positive future for BES. Moreover, mainstreaming will entail efforts from the government to enhance acceptance by and participation of various stakeholders. While some countries have responded to these needs, others, in particular Western Asia, have been slow to respond, mainly because of limited institutional capacity in formulating and implementing BES policies and devising innovative mechanisms for generating and mobilising finance. An important step towards this will be the assessment and, wherever necessary, restructuring policy instruments in light of the policy options {6.2.2, 6.2.2.1, 6.2.2.2, 6.4.1, 6.4.2}..

Bringing the Nature Futures Framework to life: creating a set of illustrative narratives of nature futures

To halt further destruction of the biosphere, most people and societies around the globe need to transform their relationships with nature. The internationally agreed vision under the Convention of Biological Diversity—Living in harmony with nature—is that “By 2050, biodiversity is valued, conserved, restored and wisely used, maintaining ecosystem services, sustaining a healthy planet and delivering benefits essential for all people”. In this context, there are a variety of debates between alternative perspectives on how to achieve this vision. Yet, scenarios and models that are able to explore these debates in the context of “living in harmony with nature” have not been widely developed. To address this gap, the Nature Futures Framework has been developed to catalyse the development of new scenarios and models that embrace a plurality of perspectives on desirable futures for nature and people. In this paper, members of the IPBES task force on scenarios and models provide an example of how the Nature Futures Framework can be implemented for the development of illustrative narratives representing a diversity of desirable nature futures: information that can be used to assess and develop scenarios and models whilst acknowledging the underpinning value perspectives on nature. Here, the term illustrative reflects the multiple ways in which desired nature futures can be captured by these narratives. In addition, to explore the interdependence between narratives, and therefore their potential to be translated into scenarios and models, the six narratives developed here were assessed around three areas of the transformative change debate, specifically, (1) land sparing vs. land sharing, (2) Half Earth vs. Whole Earth conservation, and (3) green growth vs. post-growth economic development. The paper concludes with an assessment of how the Nature Futures Framework could be used to assist in developing and articulating transformative pathways towards desirable nature futures