Planned Adaptation in Design and Testing of Critical Infrastructure: The Case of Flood Safety in The Netherlands

In the Netherlands, dykes and other primary water defence works are assets that are essential to keep the society and economy functioning, by protecting against flooding from sea and rivers due to extreme events. Given that 55% of the country is at risk of flooding, primary water defence works belong to its critical infrastructure. Many factors influence the risk and impact of flooding. Besides physical factors (e.g., landscape design, climate change) also socio-economic factors (e.g., population, assets) are important. Given that these factors change and feature complex and uncertain behaviour in past and future, the design and regulation of this critical infrastructure will have to be flexible enough to be able to deal with such changes. ‘Planned Adaptation’ refers to regulatory programmes that plan for future changes in knowledge by producing new knowledge and revising rules at regular intervals. This study describes the emergence of the next generation of Dutch primary water defence infrastructure, which through the stepwise implementation of Planned Adaptation for design and testing of primary water defence works in the mid-1990s has moved beyond the Delta Works approach of 1953 and subsequent unplanned adaptations. This has prepared the ground for the recent introduction of Adaptive Delta Management, which makes an integral part of the new Delta Plan for the Netherlands that was published on 16 September 2014 and which is also analysed in this study

A study on LQG/LTR control for damping inter-area oscillations in power systems

Published versio

Nitrification amplifies the decreasing trends of atmospheric oxygen and implies a larger land carbon uptake

[1] Atmospheric O-2 trend measurements are used to partition global oceanic and land biotic carbon sinks on a multiannual basis. The underlying principle is that a terrestrial uptake or release of CO₂ is accompanied by an opposite flux of O-2. The molar ratio of the CO₂ and O-2 terrestrial fluxes should be 1, if no other elements are considered. However, reactive nitrogen produced by human activities (e.g., fertilizers, N deposition) is also being incorporated into plant tissues. The various reaction pathways of the terrestrial nitrogen cycle cause fluxes of atmospheric O-2. Thus the cycles of nitrogen, carbon, and oxygen must be linked together. We report here on previously unconsidered anthropogenic nitrogen-related mechanisms which impact atmospheric O-2 trends and thus the derived global carbon sinks. In particular, we speculate that anthropogenic-driven changes are driving the global nitrogen cycle to a more oxidized state, primarily through nitrification, nitrate fertilizer industrial production, and combustion of fossil fuels and anthropogenic biomass burning. The sum of these nitrogen-related processes acts to additionally decrease atmospheric O-2 and slightly increase atmospheric CO₂. We have calculated that the effective land biotic O-2: CO₂ molar ratio ranges between 0.76 and 1.04 rather than 1.10 ( moles of O-2 produced per mole of CO₂ consumed) over the period 1993 - 2003, depending on which of four contrasting nitrogen oxidation and reduction pathway scenarios is used. Using the scenario in which we have most confidence, this implies a 0.23 PgC yr(-1) correction to the global land biotic and oceanic carbon sinks of most recently reported estimates over 1993 - 2003, with the land biotic sink becoming larger and the oceanic sink smaller. We have attributed large uncertainties of 100% to all nitrogen-related O-2 and CO₂ fluxes and this corresponds up to +/- 0.09 PgC yr(-1) increase in global carbon sink uncertainties. Thus accounting for anthropogenic nitrogen-related terrestrial fluxes of O-2 results in a 45% larger land biotic sink of 0.74 +/- 0.78 PgC yr(-1) and a slightly smaller oceanic sink of 2.01 +/- 0.66 PgC yr(-1) for the decade 1993 - 2003. [References: 38

On the massive gluon propagator, the PT-BFM scheme and the low-momentum behaviour of decoupling and scaling DSE solutions

We study the low-momentum behaviour of Yang-Mills propagators obtained from Landau-gauge Dyson-Schwinger equations (DSE) in the PT-BFM scheme. We compare the ghost propagator numerical results with the analytical ones obtained by analyzing the low-momentum behaviour of the ghost propagator DSE in Landau gauge, assuming for the truncation a constant ghost-gluon vertex and a simple model for a massive gluon propagator. The asymptotic expression obtained for the regular or decoupling ghost dressing function up to the order ${\cal O}(q^2)$ is proven to fit pretty well the numerical PT-BFM results. Furthermore, when the size of the coupling renormalized at some scale approaches some critical value, the numerical PT-BFM propagators tend to behave as the scaling ones. We also show that the scaling solution, implying a diverging ghost dressing function, cannot be a DSE solution in the PT-BFM scheme but an unattainable limiting case.Comment: 16 pages, 2 figs., 2 tabs (updated version to be published in JHEP

Bayesian Optimisation for Safe Navigation under Localisation Uncertainty

In outdoor environments, mobile robots are required to navigate through terrain with varying characteristics, some of which might significantly affect the integrity of the platform. Ideally, the robot should be able to identify areas that are safe for navigation based on its own percepts about the environment while avoiding damage to itself. Bayesian optimisation (BO) has been successfully applied to the task of learning a model of terrain traversability while guiding the robot through more traversable areas. An issue, however, is that localisation uncertainty can end up guiding the robot to unsafe areas and distort the model being learnt. In this paper, we address this problem and present a novel method that allows BO to consider localisation uncertainty by applying a Gaussian process model for uncertain inputs as a prior. We evaluate the proposed method in simulation and in experiments with a real robot navigating over rough terrain and compare it against standard BO methods.Comment: To appear in the proceedings of the 18th International Symposium on Robotics Research (ISRR 2017

Geometric Aspects of Ambrosetti-Prodi operators with Lipschitz nonlinearities

For Dirichlet boundary conditions on a bounded domain, what happens to the critical set of the Ambrosetti-Prodi operator if the nonlinearity is only a Lipschitz map? It turns out that many properties which hold in the smooth case are preserved, despite of the fact that the operator is not even differentiable at some points. In particular, a global Lyapunov-Schmidt decomposition of great convenience for numerical inversion is still available

The rate of CD4 decline as a determinant of progression to AIDS independent of the most recent CD4 count

The data of two cohort studies of HIV-infected individuals were used to examine whether the rate of CD4 decline is a determinant of HIV progression, independent of the most recent CD4 count. Time from seroconversion to clinical AIDS was the main outcome measure. Rates of CD4 decline were estimated using the ordinary least squares regression method. AIDS incidences were compared in individuals who had previously experienced either a steeper or a less steep rate of CD4 decline. Cox proportional hazards model including a time-dependent covariate for the rate of CD4 decline was performed. The rate of prior CD4 decline was significantly associated with the risk of developing AIDS independently from the most recent CD4 count, with a 2 % increase in hazard of AIDS (P < 0.01) for a difference of 10 cells/mm(3) in the estimated yearly drop in CD4 count. This finding gives scientific credit to the belief that individuals with a prior steeper CD4 decline consistently have a higher subsequent risk of developing AIDS than those with a less steep prior decline

Singing from the Grave: DNA from a 180 Year Old Type Specimen Confirms the Identity of Chrysoperla carnea (Stephens)

Copyright: © 2015 Price et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. The attached file is the published version of the article

Association of drusen deposition with choroidal intercapillary pillars in the aging human eye

PURPOSE. To determine the pattern of drusen accumulation with age and to investigate the initial sites of deposition and their relationship to choroidal capillaries in human donor eyes from the eye bank of Moorfields Eye Hospital.METHODS. Wholemounted, hydrated preparations of the choriocapillaris and Bruch's membrane from donor eyes ranging from 42 to 95 years, with or without retinal pigment epithelium (RPE), were examined by conventional and confocal microscopy. Drusen were visualized by their autofluorescence.RESULTS. In all age groups studied autofluorescent drusen were present at the equator but were not found centrally where the vascular architecture is different, being tubular rather than a honeycomb pattern. Autofluorescing drusen were strongly associated with the lateral walls of the choriocapillaris (an area commonly known as the intercapillary pillars of the choriocapillaris (P = 0.028; Wilcoxon signed ranks test). Nonfluorescing drusen were occasionally seen centrally, but were not easily identified, and because of their large size, their localization with respect to capillary walls was not possible.CONCLUSIONS. These results strongly support the notion that autofluorescent drusen are not randomly distributed and have a specific spatial relationship to choroidal vessel walls. That equatorial drusen fluoresce, whereas central drusen do not, suggests that they may have different chemical compositions at the two sites and possibly different significance in age-related macular disease