High mortality among tuberculosis patients on treatment in Nigeria: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) remains a leading cause of death in much of sub-Saharan Africa despite available effective treatment. Prompt initiation of TB treatment and access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) remains vital to the success of TB control. We assessed time to mortality after treatment onset using data from a large treatment centre in Nigeria. METHODS: We analysed a retrospective cohort of TB patients that commenced treatment between January 2010 and December 2014 in Aminu Kano Teaching Hospital. We estimated mortality rates per person-months at risk (pm). Cox proportional hazards model was used to determine risk factors for mortality. RESULTS: Among 1,424 patients with a median age of 36.6 years, 237 patients (16.6%) died after commencing TB treatment giving a mortality rate of 3.68 per 100 pm of treatment in this cohort. Most deaths occurred soon after treatment onset with a mortality rate of 37.6 per 100 pm in the 1st week of treatment. Risk factors for death were being HIV-positive but not on anti-retroviral treatment (ART) (aHR 1.39(1 · 04-1 · 85)), residence outside the city (aHR 3 · 18(2.28-4.45)), previous TB treatment (aHR 3.48(2.54-4.77)), no microbiological confirmation (aHR 4.96(2.69-9.17)), having both pulmonary and extra-pulmonary TB (aHR 1.45(1.03-2.02), and referral from a non-programme linked clinic/centre (aHR 3.02(2.01-4.53)). CONCLUSIONS: We attribute early deaths in this relatively young cohort to delay in diagnosis and treatment of TB, inadequate treatment of drug-resistant TB, and poor ART access. Considerable expansion and improvement in quality of diagnosis and treatment services for TB and HIV are needed to achieve the sustainable development goal of reducing TB deaths by 95% by 2035

Knowledge Assessment of Anti-snake Venom Among Healthcare Practitioners in Northern Nigeria

Introduction: Anti-snake venom (ASV) is the standard therapy for the management of snakebite envenoming (SBE). Therefore, the knowledge of ASV among healthcare practitioners (HCPs) is essential for achieving optimal clinical outcomes in snakebite management. This study aimed to assess knowledge of ASV among the HCPs in northern Nigeria. Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study involving eligible HCPs from different healthcare settings in northern Nigeria. The participants were recruited into the study using a combination of online (via Google Form) and face-to-face paper-based survey methods. The ASV knowledge of the respondents was measured using a validated anti-snake venom knowledge assessment tool (AKAT). Inadequate overall knowledge of ASV was defined as scores of 0-69.9%, and 70-100% were considered adequate overall knowledge scores. The predictors of ASV knowledge were determined using multiple logistic regression. Results: Three hundred and thirty-one (331) eligible HCPs were included in the study analysis (310 from online and 21 from paper-based survey). Overall, an estimated 12.7% of the participants had adequate knowledge of ASV. Adequate ASV knowledge was higher among physicians compared with other HCPs (21.7%; X-2 =8.1; p=0.04). Those without previous training on ASV (adjusted odds ratio [a0R], 0.37; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.18-0.73; p= 0.004) and who have not previously administered/dispensed ASV (aOR, 0.31; 95% CI, 0.15-0.63; p \u3c 0.001) were less likely to have adequate knowledge of ASV. Conclusion: The knowledge of ASV among healthcare practitioners in northern Nigeria is grossly inadequate. Experience with administering or dispensing ASV predicts ASV knowledge. Therefore, appropriate interventions are needed to improve ASV knowledge, particularly among the HCPs, for optimal healthcare outcomes

Perception and beliefs about mental illness among adults in Karfi village, northern Nigeria

BACKGROUND: This study was designed to examine the knowledge, attitude and beliefs about causes, manifestations and treatment of mental illness among adults in a rural community in northern Nigeria. METHODS: A cross sectional study design was used. A pre-tested, semi-structured questionnaire was administered to 250 adults residing in Karfi village, northern Nigeria. RESULTS: The most common symptoms proffered by respondents as manifestations of mental illness included aggression/destructiveness (22.0%), loquaciousness (21.2%), eccentric behavior (16.1%) and wandering (13.3%). Drug misuse including alcohol, cannabis, and other street drugs was identified in 34.3% of the responses as a major cause of mental illness, followed by divine wrath/ God's will (19%), and magic/spirit possession (18.0%). About 46% of respondents preferred orthodox medical care for the mentally sick while 34% were more inclined to spiritual healing. Almost half of the respondents harbored negative feelings towards the mentally ill. Literate respondents were seven times more likely to exhibit positive feelings towards the mentally ill as compared to non-literate subjects (OR = 7.6, 95% confidence interval = 3.8–15.1). CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrates the need for community educational programs in Nigeria aimed at demystifying mental illness. A better understanding of mental disorders among the public would allay fear and mistrust about mentally ill persons in the community as well as lessen stigmatization towards such persons

The effect of increasing the supply of skilled health providers on pregnancy and birth outcomes: evidence from the midwives service scheme in Nigeria

Background: Limited availability of skilled health providers in developing countries is thought to be an important barrier to achieving maternal and child health-related MDG goals. Little is known, however, about the extent to which scaling-up supply of health providers will lead to improved pregnancy and birth outcomes. We study the effects of the Midwives Service Scheme (MSS), a public sector program in Nigeria that increased the supply of skilled midwives in rural communities on pregnancy and birth outcomes. Methods: We surveyed 7,104 women with a birth within the preceding five years across 12 states in Nigeria and compared changes in birth outcomes in MSS communities to changes in non-MSS communities over the same period. Results: The main measured effect of the scheme was a 7.3-percentage point increase in antenatal care use in program clinics and a 5-percentage point increase in overall use of antenatal care, both within the first year of the program. We found no statistically significant effect of the scheme on skilled birth attendance or on maternal delivery complications. Conclusion: This study highlights the complexity of improving maternal and child health outcomes in developing countries, and shows that scaling up supply of midwives may not be sufficient on its own

Randomised Controlled Double-Blind Non-Inferiority Trial of Two Antivenoms for Saw-Scaled or Carpet Viper (Echis ocellatus) Envenoming in Nigeria

Snake bite threatens millions of poor rural folk throughout Africa. In Nigeria, as in many countries of sub-Saharan Africa, it takes a terrible toll on human life and limb. Over the years, the news for those exposed to snake bite has been generally bad: withdrawal of antivenom manufacturers, increasing cost and, most recently, the marketing of ineffective or fake antivenoms in the region. Our paper reports encouraging results achieved by two antivenoms created as a direct consequence of the present crisis in antivenom supply for Africa. They have been assessed in the most powerful trial ever attempted in this field. The trial showed that in people with non-clotting blood following carpet viper bite, the commonest cause of snake bite morbidity and mortality in the West African savannah, administration of the antivenoms- EchiTAb G and EchiTAb Plus-ICP led to permanent restoration of blood clotting in 76% and 83% of the patients within 6 hours, respectively. Generally mild early adverse reactions were recorded in 19% and 26%, respectively. Both antivenoms proved effective and acceptably safe and can be recommended for treating carpet viper envenoming in Nigeria

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions