9 research outputs found
The Influence of Financial Benefits and Peer Effects on the Adoption of Residential Rooftop Photovoltaic Systems
The uptake of residential photovoltaic systems is
essential for energy system transformation towards carbon
neutrality and decentralization. However, despite numerous
campaigns to incentivize their uptake, adoption by residential
homeowners is lacking behind. While countless drivers and
barriers have been identified, the decision process is not fully
understood. To address this gap, we developed an agent-based
residential rooftop photovoltaic adoption model called PVact. Our
model analyzes the interactions of potential household adopters
based on their utility functions and social network, with a focus
on the role of monetary evaluation and social pressure in adoption
behavior. In this paper, we aim to assess the influence of monetary
evaluation and social pressure in an abstract case study based
on real-world data from the municipality of Leipzig, Germany.
We consider stochastic dynamics through scenario analysis to
investigate the influence of these factors on adoption behavior.
Our results show that monetary evaluation and social pressure
have a significant impact on adoption behavior. Specifically, we
find shifting adoption patterns with an increased requirement for
monetary returns and higher level of normative pressure required
for households to act. Higher resistance against these pressure
shows more stochastic variations
A modular multi-agent framework for innovation diffusion in changing business environments: conceptualization, formalization and implementation
Understanding how innovations are accepted in a dynamic and complex market environment is a crucial factor for competitive advantage. To understand the relevant factors for this diffusion and to predict success, empirically grounded agent-based models have become increasingly popular in recent years. Despite the popularity of these innovation diffusion models, no common framework that integrates their diversity exists. This article presents a flexible, modular and extensible common description and implementation framework that allows to depict the large variety of model components found in existing models. The framework aims to provide a theoretically grounded description and implementation framework for empirically grounded agent-based models of innovation diffusion. It identifies 30 component requirements to conceptualize an integrated formal framework description. Based on this formal description, a java-based implementation allowing for flexible configuration of existing and future models of innovation diffusion is developed. As a variable decision support tool in decision-making processes on the adoption of innovations the framework is valuable for the investigation of a range of research questions on innovation diffusion, business model evaluation and infrastructure transformation
PVactVal:A Validation Approach for Agent-based Modeling of Residential Photovoltaic Adoption
Agent-based simulation models are an important tool
to study the effectiveness of policy interventions on the uptake of
residential photovoltaic systems by households, a cornerstone of
sustainable energy system transition. In order for these models
to be trustworthy, they require rigorous validation.
However, the canonical approach of validating emulation models
through calibration with parameters that minimize the difference
of model results and reference data fails when the model is
subject to many stochastic influences. The residential photovoltaic
diffusion model PVact features numerous stochastic influences
that prevent straightforward optimization-driven calibration.
From the analysis of the results of a case-study on the cities
Dresden and Leipzig (Germany) based on three error metrics
(mean average error, root mean square error and cumulative
average error), this research identifies a parameter range where
stochastic fluctuations exceed differences between results of
different parameterization and a minimization-based calibration
approach fails.
Based on this observation, an approach is developed that
aggregates model behavior across multiple simulation runs and
parameter combinations to compare results between scenarios
representing different future developments or policy interventions
of interest
The structural basis of inter-individual differences in human behaviour and cognition
Inter-individual variability in perception, thought and action is frequently treated as a source of 'noise' in scientific investigations of the neural mechanisms that underlie these processes, and discarded by averaging data from a group of participants. However, recent MRI studies in the human brain show that inter-individual variability in a wide range of basic and higher cognitive functions - including perception, motor control, memory, aspects of consciousness and the ability to introspect - can be predicted from the local structure of grey and white matter as assessed by voxel-based morphometry or diffusion tensor imaging. We propose that inter-individual differences can be used as a source of information to link human behaviour and cognition to brain anatom