Commodity Markets: Rational Expectations in Markets With Irrational Investors

The "financialization" of commodity markets have become a concern for policy makers and market participants. What was once a market for the hedging of holding physical commodities has expanded to become a market for the diversification of financial assets. When financial assets diversification goals are decoupled from the fundamental factors that affect producers and consumers of physical goods futures markets may not be as efficient in aggregating information concerning the economics of the underlying commodity. Theoretical understanding of whether commodity futures market function well under exogenous shifts in demand for futures contracts depend on our assumptions of how market participants behave, including their level of risk aversion. This paper builds a competitive storage model with an explicit futures market that incorporates irrational shocks to demand for futures contracts. This model is flexible enough to investigate the impact of the "financialization" of commodity futures markets and the resulting impacts.commodity, futures, financialization, competitive storage, rational expectations, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Financial Economics, Risk and Uncertainty,

Mechanisms of Individual Differences in Impulsive and Risky Choice in Rats

Citation: Kirkpatrick, K., Marshall, A. T., & Smith, A. P. (2015). Mechanisms of Individual Differences in Impulsive and Risky Choice in Rats. Comparative Cognition & Behavior Reviews, 10. Retrieved from http://comparative-cognition-and-behavior-reviews.org/2015/vol10_kirkpatrick_marshall_smith/Mechanisms of Individual Differences in Impulsive and Risky Choice in Rats Kimberly Kirkpatrick Department of Psychological Sciences, Kansas State University Andrew T. Marshall Department of Psychological Sciences, Kansas State University Aaron P

Individual differences in impulsive and risky choice: effects of environmental rearing conditions

The present experiment investigated early-rearing environment modulation of individual differences in impulsive and risky choice. Rats were reared in an isolated condition (IC; n = 12), in which they lived alone without novel stimuli, or an enriched condition (EC; n = 12), in which they lived among conspecifics with novel stimuli. The impulsive choice task involved choices between smaller-sooner (SS) versus larger-later (LL) rewards. The risky choice task involved choices between certain-smaller (C-S) versus uncertain-larger (U-L) rewards. Following choice testing, incentive motivation to work for food was measured using a progressive ratio task and correlated with choice behavior. HPLC analyses were conducted to determine how monoamine concentrations within the prefrontal cortex (PFC) and nucleus accumbens (NAC) related to behavior in different tasks. IC rats were more impulsive than EC rats, but they did not differ in risky choice behavior. However, choice behavior across tasks was significantly correlated (i.e., the more impulsive rats were also riskier). There were no group differences in monoamine levels, but noradrenergic and serotonergic concentrations were significantly correlated with impulsive and risky choice. Furthermore, serotonin and norepinephrine concentrations in the NAC significantly correlated with incentive motivation and the timing of the reward delays within the choice tasks. These results suggest a role for domain general processes in impulsive and risky choice and indicate the importance of the NAC and/or PFC in timing, reward processing, and choice behavior

Arepo-MCRT: Monte Carlo Radiation Hydrodynamics on a Moving Mesh

We present Arepo-MCRT, a novel Monte Carlo radiative transfer (MCRT) radiation-hydrodynamics (RHD) solver for the unstructured moving-mesh code Arepo. Our method is designed for general multiple scattering problems in both optically thin and thick conditions. We incorporate numerous efficiency improvements and noise reduction schemes to help overcome efficiency barriers that typically inhibit convergence. These include continuous absorption and energy deposition, photon weighting and luminosity boosting, local packet merging and splitting, path-based statistical estimators, conservative (face-centered) momentum coupling, adaptive convergence between time steps, implicit Monte Carlo algorithms for thermal emission, and discrete-diffusion Monte Carlo techniques for unresolved scattering, including a novel advection scheme. We primarily focus on the unique aspects of our implementation and discussions of the advantages and drawbacks of our methods in various astrophysical contexts. Finally, we consider several test applications including the levitation of an optically thick layer of gas by trapped infrared radiation. We find that the initial acceleration phase and revitalized second wind are connected via self-regulation of the RHD coupling, such that the RHD method accuracy and simulation resolution each leave important imprints on the long-term behavior of the gas.Comment: 23 pages, 20 figures, ApJ, in pres

A Hetero-Diels−Alder Approach to Complex Pyrones: An Improved Synthesis of the Spongistatin AB Spiroketal

The conversion of a substituted dioxinone to a pyrone was used in an improved synthesis of the AB spiroketal subunit of the spongistatins. This transformation occurred via a hetero-Diels-Alder reaction of an acyl ketene with butyl vinyl ether. A double diastereoselective Mukaiyama aldol reaction is used to provide the hetero-Diels-Alder precursor

Whooping crane use of riverine stopover sites

Migratory birds like endangered whooping cranes (Grus americana) require suitable nocturnal roost sites during twice annual migrations. Whooping cranes primarily roost in shallow surface water wetlands, ponds, and rivers. All these features have been greatly impacted by human activities, which present threats to the continued recovery of the species. A portion of one such river, the central Platte River, has been identified as critical habitat for the survival of the endangered whooping crane. Management intervention is now underway to rehabilitate habitat form and function on the central Platte River to increase use and thereby contribute to the survival of whooping cranes. The goal of our analyses was to develop habitat selection models that could be used to direct riverine habitat management activities (i.e., channel widening, tree removal, flow augmentation, etc.) along the central Platte River and throughout the species’ range. As such, we focused our analyses on two robust sets of whooping crane observations and habitat metrics the Platte River Recovery Implementation Program (Program or PRRIP) and other such organizations could influence. This included channel characteristics such as total channel width, the width of channel unobstructed by dense vegetation, and distance of forest from the edge of the channel and flow-related metrics like wetted width and unit discharge (flow volume per linear meter of wetted channel width) that could be influenced by flow augmentation or reductions during migration. We used 17 years of systematic monitoring data in a discrete-choice framework to evaluate the influence these various metrics have on the relative probability of whooping crane use and found the width of channel unobstructed by dense vegetation and distance to the nearest forest were the best predictors of whooping crane use. Secondly, we used telemetry data obtained from a sample of 38 birds of all ages over the course of seven years, 2010–2016, to evaluate whooping crane use of riverine habitat within the North-central Great Plains, USA. For this second analysis, we focused on the two metrics found to be important predictors of whooping crane use along the central Platte River, unobstructed channel width and distance to nearest forest or wooded area. Our findings indicate resource managers, such as the Program, have the potential to influence whooping crane use of the central Platte River through removal of in-channel vegetation to increase the unobstructed width of narrow channels and through removal of trees along the bank line to increase unforested corridor widths. Results of both analyses also indicated that increases in relative probability of use by whooping cranes did not appreciably increase with unobstructed views 200 m wide and unforested corridor widths that were 330 m. Therefore, managing riverine sites for channels widths \u3e200 m and removing trees beyond 165 m from the channel’s edge would increase costs associated with implementing management actions such as channel and bank-line disking, removing trees, augmenting flow, etc. without necessarily realizing an additional appreciable increase in use by migrating whooping cranes

Incorporating chemical signalling factors into cell-based models of growing epithelial tissues

In this paper we present a comprehensive computational framework within which the effects of chemical signalling factors on growing epithelial tissues can be studied. The method incorporates a vertex-based cell model, in conjunction with a solver for the governing chemical equations. The vertex model provides a natural mesh for the finite element method (FEM), with node movements determined by force laws. The arbitrary Lagrangian–Eulerian formulation is adopted to account for domain movement between iterations. The effects of cell proliferation and junctional rearrangements on the mesh are also examined. By implementing refinements of the mesh we show that the finite element (FE) approximation converges towards an accurate numerical solution. The potential utility of the system is demonstrated in the context of Decapentaplegic (Dpp), a morphogen which plays a crucial role in development of the Drosophila imaginal wing disc. Despite the presence of a Dpp gradient, growth is uniform across the wing disc. We make the growth rate of cells dependent on Dpp concentration and show that the number of proliferation events increases in regions of high concentration. This allows hypotheses regarding mechanisms of growth control to be rigorously tested. The method we describe may be adapted to a range of potential application areas, and to other cell-based models with designated node movements, to accurately probe the role of morphogens in epithelial tissues

Application of multiplexed ion mobility spectrometry towards the identification of host protein signatures of treatment effect in pulmonary tuberculosis.

RationaleThe monitoring of TB treatments in clinical practice and clinical trials relies on traditional sputum-based culture status indicators at specific time points. Accurate, predictive, blood-based protein markers would provide a simpler and more informative view of patient health and response to treatment.ObjectiveWe utilized sensitive, high throughput multiplexed ion mobility-mass spectrometry (IM-MS) to characterize the serum proteome of TB patients at the start of and at 8 weeks of rifamycin-based treatment. We sought to identify treatment specific signatures within patients as well as correlate the proteome signatures to various clinical markers of treatment efficacy.MethodsSerum samples were collected from 289 subjects enrolled in CDC TB Trials Consortium Study 29 at time of enrollment and at the end of the intensive phase (after 40 doses of TB treatment). Serum proteins were immunoaffinity-depleted of high abundant components, digested to peptides and analyzed for data acquisition utilizing a unique liquid chromatography IM-MS platform (LC-IM-MS). Linear mixed models were utilized to identify serum protein changes in the host response to antibiotic treatment as well as correlations with culture status end points.ResultsA total of 10,137 peptides corresponding to 872 proteins were identified, quantified, and used for statistical analysis across the longitudinal patient cohort. In response to TB treatment, 244 proteins were significantly altered. Pathway/network comparisons helped visualize the interconnected proteins, identifying up regulated (lipid transport, coagulation cascade, endopeptidase activity) and down regulated (acute phase) processes and pathways in addition to other cross regulated networks (inflammation, cell adhesion, extracellular matrix). Detection of possible lung injury serum proteins such as HPSE, significantly downregulated upon treatment. Analyses of microbiologic data over time identified a core set of serum proteins (TTHY, AFAM, CRP, RET4, SAA1, PGRP2) which change in response to treatment and also strongly correlate with culture status. A similar set of proteins at baseline were found to be predictive of week 6 and 8 culture status.ConclusionA comprehensive host serum protein dataset reflective of TB treatment effect is defined. A repeating set of serum proteins (TTHY, AFAM, CRP, RET4, SAA1, PGRP2, among others) were found to change significantly in response to treatment, to strongly correlate with culture status, and at baseline to be predictive of future culture conversion. If validated in cohorts with long term follow-up to capture failure and relapse of TB, these protein markers could be developed for monitoring of treatment in clinical trials and in patient care

b-Initiated processes at the LHC: a reappraisal

Several key processes at the LHC in the standard model and beyond that involve $b$ quarks, such as single-top, Higgs, and weak vector boson associated production, can be described in QCD either in a 4-flavor or 5-flavor scheme. In the former, $b$ quarks appear only in the final state and are typically considered massive. In 5-flavor schemes, calculations include $b$ quarks in the initial state, are simpler and allow the resummation of possibly large initial state logarithms of the type $\log \frac{{\cal Q}^2}{m_b^2}$ into the $b$ parton distribution function (PDF), ${\cal Q}$ being the typical scale of the hard process. In this work we critically reconsider the rationale for using 5-flavor improved schemes at the LHC. Our motivation stems from the observation that the effects of initial state logs are rarely very large in hadron collisions: 4-flavor computations are pertubatively well behaved and a substantial agreement between predictions in the two schemes is found. We identify two distinct reasons that explain this behaviour, i.e., the resummation of the initial state logarithms into the $b$-PDF is relevant only at large Bjorken $x$ and the possibly large ratios ${\cal Q}^2/m_b^2$'s are always accompanied by universal phase space suppression factors. Our study paves the way to using both schemes for the same process so to exploit their complementary advantages for different observables, such as employing a 5-flavor scheme to accurately predict the total cross section at NNLO and the corresponding 4-flavor computation at NLO for fully exclusive studies.Comment: Fixed typo in Eq. (A.10) and few typos in Eq. (C.2) and (C.3