Prospects and challenges of environmental DNA (eDNA) monitoring in freshwater ponds

Environmental DNA (eDNA) analysis is a rapid, non-invasive, cost-efficient biodiversity monitoring tool with enormous potential to inform aquatic conservation and management. Development is ongoing, with strong commercial interest, and new uses are continually being discovered. General applications of eDNA and guidelines for best practice in freshwater systems have been established, but habitat-specific assessments are lacking. Ponds are highly diverse, yet understudied systems that could benefit from eDNA monitoring. However, eDNA applications in ponds and methodological constraints specific to these environments remain unaddressed. Following a stakeholder workshop in 2017, researchers combined knowledge and expertise to review these applications and challenges that must be addressed for the future and consistency of eDNA monitoring in ponds. The greatest challenges for pond eDNA surveys are representative sampling, eDNA capture, and potential PCR inhibition. We provide recommendations for sampling, eDNA capture, inhibition testing, and laboratory practice, which should aid new and ongoing eDNA projects in ponds. If implemented, these recommendations will contribute towards an eventual broad standardisation of eDNA research and practice, with room to tailor workflows for optimal analysis and different applications. Such standardisation will provide more robust, comparable, and ecologically meaningful data to enable effective conservation and management of pond biodiversity

Estimating the survival benefits gained from providing national cancer genetic services to women with a family history of breast cancer

The aim of this paper is to compare a service offering genetic testing and presymptomatic surveillance to women at increased risk of developing breast cancer with its predecessor of no service at all in terms of survival and quality-adjusted survival (QALYs) by means of a Markov cohort chain simulation model. Genetic assessment and presymptomatic care provided between 0.07-1.61 mean additional life years and 0.05-1.67 mean QALYs over no services. Prophylactic surgery and surveillance extended mean life expectancy by 0.41-1.61 and 0.32-0.99 years, respectively over no services for high-risk women. Model outcomes were sensitive to all the parameters varied in the sensitivity analysis. Providing cancer genetic services increase survival and as long as services do not induce adverse psychological effects they also provide more QALYs. The greatest survival and QALY benefits were found for women with identified mutations. As more cancer genes are identified, the survival and cost-effectiveness of genetic services will improve. Although mastectomy provided most additional life years, when quality of life was accounted for oophorectomy was the optimal strategy. Delayed entry into coordinated genetic services was found to diminish the average survival and QALY gains for a woman utilising these services

Optimising sampling and analysis protocols in environmental DNA studies

Ecological surveys risk incurring false negative and false positive detections of the target species. With indirect survey methods, such as environmental DNA, such error can occur at two stages: sample collection and laboratory analysis. Here we analyse a large qPCR based eDNA data set using two occupancy models, one of which accounts for false positive error by Griffin et al. (2020), and a second that assumes no false positive error by Stratton et al. (2020). Additionally, we apply the Griffin et al. (2020) model to simulated data to determine optimal levels of replication at both sampling stages. The Stratton et al. (2020) model, which assumes no false positive results, consistently overestimated both overall and individual site occupancy compared to both the Griffin et al. (2020) model and to previous estimates of pond occupancy for the target species. The inclusion of replication at both stages of eDNA analysis (sample collection and in the laboratory) reduces both bias and credible interval width in estimates of both occupancy and detectability. Even the collection of >1 sample from a site can improve parameter estimates more than having a high number of replicates only within the laboratory analysis

Lattice Boltzmann simulations of soft matter systems

This article concerns numerical simulations of the dynamics of particles immersed in a continuum solvent. As prototypical systems, we consider colloidal dispersions of spherical particles and solutions of uncharged polymers. After a brief explanation of the concept of hydrodynamic interactions, we give a general overview over the various simulation methods that have been developed to cope with the resulting computational problems. We then focus on the approach we have developed, which couples a system of particles to a lattice Boltzmann model representing the solvent degrees of freedom. The standard D3Q19 lattice Boltzmann model is derived and explained in depth, followed by a detailed discussion of complementary methods for the coupling of solvent and solute. Colloidal dispersions are best described in terms of extended particles with appropriate boundary conditions at the surfaces, while particles with internal degrees of freedom are easier to simulate as an arrangement of mass points with frictional coupling to the solvent. In both cases, particular care has been taken to simulate thermal fluctuations in a consistent way. The usefulness of this methodology is illustrated by studies from our own research, where the dynamics of colloidal and polymeric systems has been investigated in both equilibrium and nonequilibrium situations.Comment: Review article, submitted to Advances in Polymer Science. 16 figures, 76 page

Is Sustained Virological Response a Marker of Treatment Efficacy in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis C Viral Infection with No Response or Relapse to Previous Antiviral Intervention?

Background: Randomised clinical trials (RCTs) of antiviral interventions in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection use sustained virological response (SVR) as the main outcome. There is sparse information on long-term mortality from RCTs.  Methods: We created a decision tree model based on a Cochrane systematic review on interferon retreatment for patients who did not respond to initial therapy or who relapsed following SVR. Extrapolating data to 20 years, we modelled the outcome from three scenarios: (1) observed medium-term (5 year) annual mortality rates continue to the long term (20 years); (2) long-term annual mortality in retreatment responders falls to that of the general population while retreatment non-responders continue at the medium-term mortality; (3) long-term annual mortality in retreatment non-responders is the same as control group non-responders (i.e., the increased treatment-related medium mortality “wears off”).  Results: The mean differences in life expectancy over 20 years with interferon versus control in the first, second, and third scenarios were -0.34 years (95% confidence interval (CI) -0.71 to 0.03), -0.23 years (95% CI -0.69 to 0.24), and -0.01 (95% CI -0.3 to 0.27), respectively. The life expectancy was always lower in the interferon group than in the control group in scenario 1. In scenario 3, the interferon group had a longer life expectancy than the control group only when more than 7% in the interferon group achieved SVR.  Conclusions: SVR may be a good prognostic marker but does not seem to be a valid surrogate marker for assessing HCV treatment efficacy of interferon retreatment. The SVR threshold at which retreatment increases life expectancy may be different for different drugs depending upon the adverse event profile and treatment efficacy. This has to be determined for each drug by RCTs and appropriate modelling before SVR can be accepted as a surrogate marker

Proximal correlates of metabolic phenotypes during ‘at-risk' and ‘case' stages of the metabolic disease continuum

Extent: 11p.OBJECTIVE: To examine the social and behavioural correlates of metabolic phenotypes during ‘at-risk’ and ‘case’ stages of the metabolic disease continuum. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study of a random population sample. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 718 community-dwelling adults (57% female), aged 18--92 years from a regional South Australian city. MEASUREMENTS: Total body fat and lean mass and abdominal fat mass were assessed by dual energy x-ray absorptiometry. Fasting venous blood was collected in the morning for assessment of glycated haemoglobin, plasma glucose, serum triglycerides, cholesterol lipoproteins and insulin. Seated blood pressure (BP) was measured. Physical activity and smoking, alcohol and diet (96-item food frequency), sleep duration and frequency of sleep disordered breathing (SDB) symptoms, and family history of cardiometabolic disease, education, lifetime occupation and household income were assessed by questionnaire. Current medications were determined by clinical inventory. RESULTS: 36.5% were pharmacologically managed for a metabolic risk factor or had known diabetes (‘cases’), otherwise were classified as the ‘at-risk’ population. In both ‘at-risk’ and ‘cases’, four major metabolic phenotypes were identified using principal components analysis that explained over 77% of the metabolic variance between people: fat mass/insulinemia (FMI); BP; lipidaemia/lean mass (LLM) and glycaemia (GLY). The BP phenotype was uncorrelated with other phenotypes in ‘cases’, whereas all phenotypes were inter-correlated in the ‘at-risk’. Over and above other socioeconomic and behavioural factors, medications were the dominant correlates of all phenotypes in ‘cases’ and SDB symptom frequency was most strongly associated with FMI, LLM and GLY phenotypes in the ‘at-risk’. CONCLUSION: Previous research has shown FMI, LLM and GLY phenotypes to be most strongly predictive of diabetes development. Reducing SDB symptom frequency and optimising the duration of sleep may be important concomitant interventions to standard diabetes risk reduction interventions. Prospective studies are required to examine this hypothesis.MT Haren, G Misan, JF Grant, JD Buckley, PRC Howe, AW Taylor, J Newbury and RA McDermot

Proximal correlates of metabolic phenotypes during ‘at-risk' and ‘case' stages of the metabolic disease continuum

Extent: 11p.OBJECTIVE: To examine the social and behavioural correlates of metabolic phenotypes during ‘at-risk’ and ‘case’ stages of the metabolic disease continuum. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study of a random population sample. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 718 community-dwelling adults (57% female), aged 18--92 years from a regional South Australian city. MEASUREMENTS: Total body fat and lean mass and abdominal fat mass were assessed by dual energy x-ray absorptiometry. Fasting venous blood was collected in the morning for assessment of glycated haemoglobin, plasma glucose, serum triglycerides, cholesterol lipoproteins and insulin. Seated blood pressure (BP) was measured. Physical activity and smoking, alcohol and diet (96-item food frequency), sleep duration and frequency of sleep disordered breathing (SDB) symptoms, and family history of cardiometabolic disease, education, lifetime occupation and household income were assessed by questionnaire. Current medications were determined by clinical inventory. RESULTS: 36.5% were pharmacologically managed for a metabolic risk factor or had known diabetes (‘cases’), otherwise were classified as the ‘at-risk’ population. In both ‘at-risk’ and ‘cases’, four major metabolic phenotypes were identified using principal components analysis that explained over 77% of the metabolic variance between people: fat mass/insulinemia (FMI); BP; lipidaemia/lean mass (LLM) and glycaemia (GLY). The BP phenotype was uncorrelated with other phenotypes in ‘cases’, whereas all phenotypes were inter-correlated in the ‘at-risk’. Over and above other socioeconomic and behavioural factors, medications were the dominant correlates of all phenotypes in ‘cases’ and SDB symptom frequency was most strongly associated with FMI, LLM and GLY phenotypes in the ‘at-risk’. CONCLUSION: Previous research has shown FMI, LLM and GLY phenotypes to be most strongly predictive of diabetes development. Reducing SDB symptom frequency and optimising the duration of sleep may be important concomitant interventions to standard diabetes risk reduction interventions. Prospective studies are required to examine this hypothesis.MT Haren, G Misan, JF Grant, JD Buckley, PRC Howe, AW Taylor, J Newbury and RA McDermot

Cost-Effectiveness of a Telephone-Delivered Intervention for Physical Activity and Diet

Background: Given escalating rates of chronic disease, broad-reach and cost-effective interventions to increase physical activity and improve dietary intake are needed. The cost-effectiveness of a Telephone Counselling intervention to improve physical activity and diet, targeting adults with established chronic diseases in a low socio-economic area of a major Australian city was examined. Methodology/Principal Findings: A cost-effectiveness modelling study using data collected between February 2005 and November 2007 from a cluster-randomised trial that compared Telephone Counselling with a “Usual Care” (brief intervention) alternative. Economic outcomes were assessed using a state-transition Markov model, which predicted the progress of participants through five health states relating to physical activity and dietary improvement, for ten years after recruitment. The costs and health benefits of Telephone Counselling, Usual Care and an existing practice (Real Control) group were compared. Telephone Counselling compared to Usual Care was not cost-effective ($78,489 per quality adjusted life year gained). However, the Usual Care group did not represent existing practice and is not a useful comparator for decision making. Comparing Telephone Counselling outcomes to existing practice (Real Control), the intervention was found to be cost-effective ($29,375 per quality adjusted life year gained). Usual Care (brief intervention) compared to existing practice (Real Control) was also cost-effective ($12,153 per quality adjusted life year gained). Conclusions/Significance: This modelling study shows that a decision to adopt a Telephone Counselling program over existing practice (Real Control) is likely to be cost-effective. Choosing the ‘Usual Care’ brief intervention over existing practice (Real Control) shows a lower cost per quality adjusted life year, but the lack of supporting evidence for efficacy or sustainability is an important consideration for decision makers. The economics of behavioural approaches to improving health must be made explicit if decision makers are to be convinced that allocating resources toward such programs is worthwhile