A framework for modeling uncertainty in regional climate change

In this study, we present a new modeling framework and a large ensemble of climate projections to investigate the uncertainty in regional climate change over the United States (US) associated with four dimensions of uncertainty. The sources of uncertainty considered in this framework are the emissions projections, global climate system parameters, natural variability and model structural uncertainty. The modeling framework revolves around the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model with an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC) (with a two-dimensional zonal-mean atmosphere). Regional climate change over the US is obtained through a two-pronged approach. First, we use the IGSM-CAM framework, which links the IGSM to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Second, we use a pattern-scaling method that extends the IGSM zonal mean based on climate change patterns from various climate models. Results show that the range of annual mean temperature changes are mainly driven by policy choices and the range of climate sensitivity considered. Meanwhile, the four sources of uncertainty contribute more equally to end-of-century precipitation changes, with natural variability dominating until 2050. For the set of scenarios used in this study, the choice of policy is the largest driver of uncertainty, defined as the range of warming and changes in precipitation, in future projections of climate change over the US

National income inequality predicts women's preferences for masculinized faces better than health does

This article is available open access through the publisher’s website at the link below. Copyright @ 2010 The Royal Society

Mortality Transition and Family Formation in Two Quarters of Gaza City

This thesis is the first in-depth investigation of demographic trends in the Gaza Strip. The Palestinian populations of ash-Shati refugee camp and the ash-Shaja’iyya quarter of Gaza city were surveyed in 1985 to obtain estimates of fertility and mortality. These estimates are examined and the findings are interpreted in the context of historical data on demographic change in other Palestinian communities. Variations in marriage and fertility patterns are described. As in other Arab populations, the rise in the female age at first marriage is a major contributor to changes and differentials in fertility. But a unique finding is that in these two Muslim communities the norm of universal marriage for women was disrupted, primarily due to a shortage of spouses through sex-selective emigration. After loss of exposure to union, lactational amenorrhoea plays the most important role in suppressing fertility. However, even the refugees, who have had access to family planning services for twenty years, make limited use of contraception. Reasons for these findings are discussed. The mortality analysis establishes the secular trend in the age pattern of child deaths, but focuses largely on mortality differentials. Log-linear rates models are used to estimate the effect of demographic and socio-economic variables on the risk of death in childhood. When all births are included in the model and other influences simultaneously controlled, the most important co-variates of mortality are the length of the preceding birth interval and mother’s age together with mother’s education, household wealth and period of birth. Other factors such as public health measures and therapeutic medicine, which cannot be quantified but which may have contributed to the mortality transition, are also considered. A separate analysis reveals that, by the 1980s, when the majority of child deaths occurred in the first half of infancy, it was the daughters of poorly educated older women who did not use ante-natal care who were most likely to die. Possible explanations for this finding emerge from a brief examination of childcare practices

Using drones and sirens to elicit avoidance behaviour in white rhinoceros as an anti-poaching tactic.

Poaching fuelled by international trade in horn caused the deaths of over 1000 African rhinoceros (Ceratotherium simum and Diceros bicornis) per year between 2013 and 2017. Deterrents, which act to establish avoidance behaviours in animals, have the potential to aid anti-poaching efforts by moving at-risk rhinos away from areas of danger (e.g. near perimeter fences). To evaluate the efficacy of deterrents, we exposed a population of southern white rhinos (C. simum simum) to acoustic- (honeybee, siren, turtle dove), olfactory- (chilli, sunflower), and drone-based stimuli on a game reserve in South Africa. We exposed rhinos to each stimulus up to four times. Stimuli were considered effective deterrents if they repeatedly elicited avoidance behaviour (locomotion away from the deterrent). Rhinos travelled significantly further in response to the siren than to the honeybee or turtle dove stimulus, and to low-altitude drone flights than to higher altitude flights. We found the drone to be superior at manipulating rhino movement than the siren owing to its longer transmission range and capability of pursuit. By contrast, the scent stimuli were ineffective at inciting avoidance behaviour. Our findings indicate that deterrents are a prospective low-cost and in situ method to manage rhino movement in game reserves

Four Cultural Narratives for Managing Social-ecological Complexity in Public Natural Resource Management

This is the final version. Available on open access from Springer via the DOI in this recordData availability: The data that comprised this research is stored at the UK Data Service but safeguarded due to its sensitive nature.Public Natural Resource Management (NRM) agencies operate in complex social-ecological domains. These complexities proliferate unpredictably therefore investigating and supporting the ability of public agencies to respond effectively is increasingly important. However, understanding how public NRM agencies innovate and restructure to negotiate the range of particular complexities they face is an under researched field. One particular conceptualisation of the social-ecological complexities facing NRM agencies that is of growing influence is the Water-Energy-Food (WEF) nexus. Yet, as a tool to frame and understand those complexities it has limitations. Specifically, it overlooks how NRMs respond institutionally to these social-ecological complexities in the context of economic and organisational challenges-thus creating a gap in the literature. Current debates in public administration can be brought to bear here. Using an organisational cultures approach, this paper reports on a case study with a national NRM agency to investigate how they are attempting to transform institutionally to respond to complexity in challenging times. The research involved 12 elite interviews with senior leaders from Natural Resources Wales, (NRW) and investigated how cultural narratives are being explicitly and implicitly constructed and mobilised to this end. The research identified four distinct and sequential cultural narratives: collaboration, communication, trust, and empowerment where each narrative supported the delivery of different dimensions of NRW's social-ecological complexity mandate. Counter to the current managerialist approaches in public administration, these results suggest that the empowerment of expert bureaucrats is important in responding effectively to complexity.Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC)Natural Resources Wale

Human preferences for sexually dimorphic faces may be evolutionarily novel

This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.A large literature proposes that preferences for exaggerated sex typicality in human faces (masculinity/femininity) reflect a long evolutionary history of sexual and social selection. This proposal implies that dimorphism was important to judgments of attractiveness and personality in ancestral environments. It is difficult to evaluate, however, because most available data come from largescale, industrialized, urban populations. Here, we report the results for 12 populations with very diverse levels of economic development. Surprisingly, preferences for exaggerated sex-specific traits are only found in the novel, highly developed environments. Similarly, perceptions that masculine males look aggressive increase strongly with development, specifically, urbanization. These data challenge the hypothesis that facial dimorphism was an important ancestral signal of heritable mate value. One possibility is that highly developed environments provide novel opportunities to discern relationships between facial traits and behavior by exposing individuals to large numbers of unfamiliar faces, revealing patterns too subtle to detect with smaller samples

Optimizing treatment with tumour necrosis factor inhibitors in rheumatoid arthritis-a proof of principle and exploratory trial: is dose tapering practical in good responders?

OBJECTIVES: RA patients receiving TNF inhibitors (TNFi) usually maintain their initial doses. The aim of the Optimizing Treatment with Tumour Necrosis Factor Inhibitors in Rheumatoid Arthritis trial was to evaluate whether tapering TNFi doses causes loss of clinical response. METHODS: We enrolled RA patients receiving etanercept or adalimumab and a DMARD with DAS28 under 3.2 for over 3 months. Initially (months 0-6) patients were randomized to control (constant TNFi) or two experimental groups (tapering TNFi by 33 or 66%). Subsequently (months 6-12) control subjects were randomized to taper TNFi by 33 or 66%. Disease flares (DAS28 increasing ⩾0.6 with at least one additional swollen joint) were the primary outcome. RESULTS: Two hundred and forty-four patients were screened, 103 randomized and 97 treated. In months 0-6 there were 8/50 (16%) flares in controls, 3/26 (12%) with 33% tapering and 6/21 (29%) with 66% tapering. Multivariate Cox analysis showed time to flare was unchanged with 33% tapering but was reduced with 66% tapering compared with controls (adjusted hazard ratio 2.81, 95% CI: 0.99, 7.94; P = 0.051). Analysing all tapered patients after controls were re-randomized (months 6-12) showed differences between groups: there were 6/48 (13%) flares with 33% tapering and 14/39 (36%) with 66% tapering. Multivariate Cox analysis showed 66% tapering reduced time to flare (adjusted hazard ratio 3.47, 95% CI: 1.26, 9.58; P = 0.016). CONCLUSION: Tapering TNFi by 33% has no impact on disease flares and appears practical in patients in sustained remission and low disease activity states

On the Theory of Evolution Versus the Concept of Evolution: Three Observations

Here we address three misconceptions stated by Rice et al. in their observations of our article Paz-y-Miño and Espinosa (Evo Edu Outreach 2:655–675, 2009), published in this journal. The five authors titled their note “The Theory of Evolution is Not an Explanation for the Origin of Life.” First, we argue that it is fallacious to believe that because the formulation of the theory of evolution, as conceived in the 1800s, did not include an explanation for the origin of life, nor of the universe, the concept of evolution would not allow us to hypothesize the possible beginnings of life and its connections to the cosmos. Not only Stanley Miller’s experiments of 1953 led scientists to envision a continuum from the inorganic world to the origin and diversification of life, but also Darwin’s own writings of 1871. Second, to dismiss the notion of Rice et al. that evolution does not provide explanations concerning the universe or the cosmos, we identify compelling scientific discussions on the topics: Zaikowski et al. (Evo Edu Outreach 1:65–73, 2008), Krauss (Evo Edu Outreach 3:193–197, 2010), Peretó et al. (Orig Life Evol Biosph 39:395–406, 2009) and Follmann and Brownson (Naturwissenschaften 96:1265–1292, 2009). Third, although we acknowledge that the term Darwinism may not be inclusive of all new discoveries in evolution, and also that creationists and Intelligent Designers hijack the term to portray evolution as ideology, we demonstrate that there is no statistical evidence suggesting that the word Darwinism interferes with public acceptance of evolution, nor does the inclusion of the origin of life or the universe within the concept of evolution. We examine the epistemological and empirical distinction between the theory of evolution and the concept of evolution and conclude that, although the distinction is important, it should not compromise scientific logic

Negligible hormonal response following dehorning in free-ranging white rhinoceros (Ceratotherium simum)

The white rhinoceros (Ceratotherium simum) is experiencing unsustainable poaching losses fuelled by a demand for horn. Increasingly, private and state reserves are dehorning their rhinoceros populations in an attempt to reduce poaching pressure. Rhinoceroses use their horns in social interactions as well as during resource access and so its partial removal as part of reserve management practices may adversely influence these behaviours. Physiological stress can correlate with animal welfare, reproductive state and health and thus acts as a useful indicator of these parameters. To establish whether dehorning causes a physiological stress response, glucocorticoid and gonadal steroid profiles of free-ranging white rhinoceroses were determined through the collection and analysis of faecal steroid metabolites before and after dehorning. Faecal corticoid profiles were not influenced by the number of occasions a rhinoceros had been dehorned or by the number of days that had elapsed since dehorning. Furthermore, there was no apparent suppression in the concentrations of testosterone or progesterone metabolites in males and females, respectively, after exposure to multiple dehorning procedures. These findings should increase wildlife managers' confidence that dehorning does not negatively impact white rhinoceros physiology as measured hormonally