Development of Evidence Based Surveillance Intervals following Radiofrequency Ablation of Barrett's Esophagus

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Barrett's esophagus (BE) recurs in 25% or more of patients treated successfully with radiofrequency ablation (RFA), so surveillance endoscopy is recommended after complete eradication of intestinal metaplasia (CEIM). The frequency of surveillance is informed only by expert opinion. We aimed to model the incidence of neoplastic recurrence, validate the model in an independent cohort, and propose evidence-based surveillance intervals. METHODS: We collected data from the United States Radiofrequency Ablation Registry (US RFA, 2004-2013) and the United Kingdom National Halo Registry (UK NHR, 2007-2015) to build and validate models to predict the incidence of neoplasia recurrence following initially successful RFA. We developed 3 categories of risk and modeled intervals to yield 0.1% risk of recurrence with invasive adenocarcinoma. We fit Cox proportional hazards models assessing discrimination by C statistic and 95% confidence limits (CL). RESULTS: The incidence of neoplastic recurrence was associated with most severe histologic grade prior to CEIM, age, endoscopic mucosal resection, sex, and baseline BE segment length. In multivariate analysis, a model based solely on most severe pre-CEIM histology predictied neoplastic recurrence with a C statistic 0.892 (95% CL, 0.863-0.921) in the US RFA registry. This model also performed well when we used data from the UK NHR. Our model divided patients into 3 risk groups based on baseline histologic grade: non-dysplastic BE or indefinite-for-dysplasia, low-grade dysplasia, and high-grade dysplasia or intramucosal adenocarcinoma. For patients with low-grade dysplasia, we propose surveillance endoscopy at 1 and 3 years after CEIM; for patients with high-grade dysplasia or intramucosal adenocarcinoma we propose surveillance endoscopy at 0.25, 0.5, and 1 year after CEIM, then annually. CONCLUSION: In analyses of data from the US RFA and UK NHR for BE, a much-attenuated schedule of surveillance endoscopy would provide protection from invasive adenocarcinoma. Adherence to the recommended surveillance intervals could decrease the number of endoscopies performed yet identify unresectable cancers at rates less than 1/1000 endoscopies

Maximum likelihood models and algorithms for gene tree evolution with duplications and losses

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The abundance of new genomic data provides the opportunity to map the location of gene duplication and loss events on a species phylogeny. The first methods for mapping gene duplications and losses were based on a parsimony criterion, finding the mapping that minimizes the number of duplication and loss events. Probabilistic modeling of gene duplication and loss is relatively new and has largely focused on birth-death processes.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We introduce a new maximum likelihood model that estimates the speciation and gene duplication and loss events in a gene tree within a species tree with branch lengths. We also provide an, in practice, efficient algorithm that computes optimal evolutionary scenarios for this model. We implemented the algorithm in the program DrML and verified its performance with empirical and simulated data.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In test data sets, DrML finds optimal gene duplication and loss scenarios within minutes, even when the gene trees contain sequences from several hundred species. In many cases, these optimal scenarios differ from the lca-mapping that results from a parsimony gene tree reconciliation. Thus, DrML provides a new, practical statistical framework on which to study gene duplication.</p

Only females in poor condition display a clear preference and prefer males with an average badge

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Female condition-dependent variation in mate preference may have important evolutionary implications, not only within the same population but also among populations. There are few experiments, however, on how condition and/or genotype influences female mate preferences. The black throat patch of the male house sparrow, <it>Passer domesticus</it>, is an intensively studied plumage trait. It is often referred to as a 'badge of status' and seems to be involved in female mate choice, but differences exist among populations. Between-population variation in mate preference may occur for condition-dependent mate preferences. We tested the hypothesis that female preference may vary with female quality (body condition). Therefore, we measured female preference for badge size using an aviary two-choice test in which females were presented with two males that had different sizes of badges (enlarged or averaged).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Overall we did not find a female preference for enlarged or average badges, but low-quality females spent more time near average badge males. Conversely, high-quality females did not show a clear preference.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Collectively, these results indicate that female preference varies with female quality. Differences in female condition are causes of within-population variation in mating preferences. To our knowledge, our results provide one of the first experimental evidences that variation in preference for a male ornament is associated with female condition. In our study, however, only females of low condition displayed a clear mate preference. Differences observed among populations could be partly explained by differences in female condition.</p

Calculating the energy spectra of magnetic molecules: application of real- and spin-space symmetries

The determination of the energy spectra of small spin systems as for instance given by magnetic molecules is a demanding numerical problem. In this work we review numerical approaches to diagonalize the Heisenberg Hamiltonian that employ symmetries; in particular we focus on the spin-rotational symmetry SU(2) in combination with point-group symmetries. With these methods one is able to block-diagonalize the Hamiltonian and thus to treat spin systems of unprecedented size. In addition it provides a spectroscopic labeling by irreducible representations that is helpful when interpreting transitions induced by Electron Paramagnetic Resonance (EPR), Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) or Inelastic Neutron Scattering (INS). It is our aim to provide the reader with detailed knowledge on how to set up such a diagonalization scheme.Comment: 29 pages, many figure

A Preference for a Sexual Signal Keeps Females Safe

Predation is generally thought to constrain sexual selection by female choice and limit the evolution of conspicuous sexual signals. Under high predation risk, females usually become less choosy, because they reduce their exposure to their predators by reducing the extent of their mate searching. However, predation need not weaken sexual selection if, under high predation risk, females exhibit stronger preferences for males that use conspicuous signals that help females avoid their predators. We tested this prediction in the fiddler crab Uca terpsichores by increasing females' perceived predation risk from crab-eating birds and measuring the attractiveness of a courtship signal that females use to find mates. The sexual signal is an arching mound of sand that males build at the openings of their burrows to which they attract females for mating. We found that the greater the risk, the more attractive were males with those structures. The benefits of mate preferences for sexual signals are usually thought to be linked to males' reproductive contributions to females or their young. Our study provides the first evidence that a female preference for a sexual signal can yield direct survival benefits by keeping females safe as they search for mates

Quantifying Variability of Avian Colours: Are Signalling Traits More Variable?

Background Increased variability in sexually selected ornaments, a key assumption of evolutionary theory, is thought to be maintained through condition-dependence. Condition-dependent handicap models of sexual selection predict that (a) sexually selected traits show amplified variability compared to equivalent non-sexually selected traits, and since males are usually the sexually selected sex, that (b) males are more variable than females, and (c) sexually dimorphic traits more variable than monomorphic ones. So far these predictions have only been tested for metric traits. Surprisingly, they have not been examined for bright coloration, one of the most prominent sexual traits. This omission stems from computational difficulties: different types of colours are quantified on different scales precluding the use of coefficients of variation. Methodology/Principal Findings Based on physiological models of avian colour vision we develop an index to quantify the degree of discriminable colour variation as it can be perceived by conspecifics. A comparison of variability in ornamental and non-ornamental colours in six bird species confirmed (a) that those coloured patches that are sexually selected or act as indicators of quality show increased chromatic variability. However, we found no support for (b) that males generally show higher levels of variability than females, or (c) that sexual dichromatism per se is associated with increased variability. Conclusions/Significance We show that it is currently possible to realistically estimate variability of animal colours as perceived by them, something difficult to achieve with other traits. Increased variability of known sexually-selected/quality-indicating colours in the studied species, provides support to the predictions borne from sexual selection theory but the lack of increased overall variability in males or dimorphic colours in general indicates that sexual differences might not always be shaped by similar selective forces

Microbial community succession on developing lesions on human enamel

Dental caries is one of the most common diseases in the world. However, our understanding of how the microbial community composition changes in vivo as caries develops is lacking.An in vivo model was used in a longitudinal cohort study to investigate shifts in the microbial community composition associated with the development of enamel caries.White spot lesions were generated in vivo on human teeth predetermined to be extracted for orthodontic reasons. The bacterial microbiota on sound enamel and on developing carious lesions were identified using the Human Oral Microbe Identification Microarray (HOMIM), which permits the detection of about 300 of the approximate 600 predominant bacterial species in the oral cavity.After only seven weeks, 75% of targeted teeth developed white spot lesions (8 individuals, 16 teeth). The microbial community composition of the plaque over white spot lesions differed significantly as compared to sound enamel. Twenty-five bacterial taxa, including Streptococcus mutans, Atopobium parvulum, Dialister invisus, and species of Prevotella and Scardovia, were significantly associated with initial enamel lesions. In contrast, 14 bacterial taxa, including species of Fusobacterium, Campylobacter, Kingella, and Capnocytophaga, were significantly associated with sound enamel.The bacterial community composition associated with the progression of enamel lesions is specific and much more complex than previously believed. This investigation represents one of the first longitudinally-derived studies for caries progression and supports microbial data from previous cross-sectional studies on the development of the disease. Thus, the in vivo experiments of generating lesions on teeth destined for extraction in conjunction with HOMIM analyses represent a valid model to study succession of supragingival microbial communities associated with caries development and to study efficacy of prophylactic and restorative treatments

Bacteraemia in patients admitted to an urban hospital in West Africa

BACKGROUND: Few studies on bacteraemia in Africa have been published. We aimed to prospectively identify the causative organisms of bacteraemia in The Gambia and their relation to clinical diagnoses, outcome and antimicrobial susceptibility. METHODS: Between November 2003 and February 2005 we studied those admitted to the Medical Research Council hospital who were suspected of having bacteraemia. We documented clinical features, outcome, pathogens identified and their susceptibility patterns, and searched for factors associated with bacteraemia. RESULTS: 871 patients were admitted and had a blood culture taken. The median age was 2 years (range 2 months to 80 years) and 36 of 119 tested were HIV positive; 54.5% were male. 297 (34%) had a positive result and 93 (10.7% overall) were considered a genuine pathogen. Those with bacteraemia were more likely to die in hospital (OR 2.79; 1.17–6.65, p = 0.017) and to have a high white cell count (WCC; OR 1.81;95% CI 1.09–3.02; p = 0.022). Three organisms accounted for 73% of bacteraemias: Streptococcus pneumoniae (45.2%), Staphylococcus aureus (18.3%) and Escherichia coli (9.7%) while non-typhoidal salmonellae (NTS) accounted for 8.6%. Antimicrobial susceptibility of S. pneumoniae was very high to penicillin (97.5%); high resistance was found to co-trimoxazole. S. aureus was generally highly susceptible to cloxacillin, gentamicin and chloramphenicol. E. coli and NTS were all susceptible to ciprofloxacin and mostly susceptible to gentamicin. Thirteen (33%) S. pneumoniae isolates were of serotypes contained in a 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine and 20 (51.3%) were of the same serogroup. CONCLUSION: In The Gambia, those with bacteraemia are more likely than those without to die in hospital and to have a raised peripheral blood WCC. S. pneumoniae is the most common organism isolated. Introduction of a pneumococcal conjugate vaccine can be expected to lead to a reduction in disease incidence

Breeding Experience and the Heritability of Female Mate Choice in Collared Flycatchers

Heritability in mate preferences is assumed by models of sexual selection, and preference evolution may contribute to adaptation to changing environments. However, mate preference is difficult to measure in natural populations as detailed data on mate availability and mate sampling are usually missing. Often the only available information is the ornamentation of the actual mate. The single long-term quantitative genetic study of a wild population found low heritability in female mate ornamentation in Swedish collared flycatchers. One potentially important cause of low heritability in mate ornamentation at the population level is reduced mate preference expression among inexperienced individuals.Applying animal model analyses to 21 years of data from a Hungarian collared flycatcher population, we found that additive genetic variance was 50 percent and significant for ornament expression in males, but less than 5 percent and non-significant for mate ornamentation treated as a female trait. Female breeding experience predicted breeding date and clutch size, but mate ornamentation and its variance components were unrelated to experience. Although we detected significant area and year effects on mate ornamentation, more than 85 percent of variance in this trait remained unexplained. Moreover, the effects of area and year on mate ornamentation were also highly positively correlated between inexperienced and experienced females, thereby acting to remove difference between the two groups.The low heritability of mate ornamentation was apparently not explained by the presence of inexperienced individuals. Our results further indicate that the expression of mate ornamentation is dominated by temporal and spatial constraints and unmeasured background factors. Future studies should reduce unexplained variance or use alternative measures of mate preference. The heritability of mate preference in the wild remains a principal but unresolved question in evolutionary ecology

Nuclear anomalies in the buccal cells of calcite factory workers

The micronucleus (MN) assay on exfoliated buccal cells is a useful and minimally invasive method for monitoring genetic damage in humans. To determine the genotoxic effects of calcite dust that forms during processing, MN assay was carried out in exfoliated buccal cells of 50 (25 smokers and 25 non-smokers) calcite factory workers and 50 (25 smokers and 25 non-smokers) age- and sex-matched control subjects. Frequencies of nuclear abnormalities (NA) other than micronuclei, such as binucleates, karyorrhexis, karyolysis and ‘broken eggs', were also evaluated. Micronuclei and the other aforementioned anomalies were analysed by two way analysis of covariance. The linear correlations between the types of micronucleus and nuclear abnormalities were determined by Spearman's Rho. There was a positive correlation between micronuclei and other types of nuclear abnormalities in accordance with the Spearman's Rho test. Results showed statistically significant difference between calcite fabric workers and control groups. MN and NA frequencies in calcite fabric workers were significantly higher than those in control groups (p < 0.05). The results of this study indicate that calcite fabric workers are under risk of significant cytogenetic damage