A Biological Model for Influenza Transmission: Pandemic Planning Implications of Asymptomatic Infection and Immunity

Background: The clinical attack rate of influenza is influenced by prior immunity and mixing patterns in the host population, and also by the proportion of infections that are asymptomatic. This complexity makes it difficult to directly estimate R0 from the attack rate, contributing to uncertainty in epidemiological models to guide pandemic planning. We have modelled multiple wave outbreaks of influenza from different populations to allow for changing immunity and asymptomatic infection and to make inferences about R0. \ud \ud Data and Methods. On the island of Tristan da Cunha (TdC), 96% of residents reported illness during an H3N2 outbreak in 1971, compared with only 25% of RAF personnel in military camps during the 1918 H1N1 pandemic. Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) methods were used to estimate model parameter distributions. \ud \ud Findings. We estimated that most islanders on TdC were non-immune (susceptible) before the first wave, and that almost all exposures of susceptible persons caused symptoms. The median R0 of 6.4 (95% credibility interval 3.7–10.7) implied that most islanders were exposed twice, although only a minority became ill in the second wave because of temporary protection following the first wave. In contrast, only 51% of RAF personnel were susceptible before the first wave, and only 38% of exposed susceptibles reported symptoms. R0 in this population was also lower [2.9 (2.3–4.3)], suggesting reduced viral transmission in a partially immune population. \ud \ud Interpretation: Our model implies that the RAF population was partially protected before the summer pandemic wave of 1918, arguably because of prior exposure to interpandemic influenza. Without such protection, each symptomatic case of influenza would transmit to between 2 and 10 new cases, with incidence initially doubling every 1–2 days. Containment of a novel virus could be more difficult than hitherto supposed

Protective Activity of Streptococcus pneumoniae Spr1875 Protein Fragments Identified Using a Phage Displayed Genomic Library

There is considerable interest in pneumococcal protein antigens capable of inducing serotype-independent immunoprotection and of improving, thereby, existing vaccines. We report here on the immunogenic properties of a novel surface antigen encoded by ORF spr1875 in the R6 strain genome. An antigenic fragment encoded by spr1875, designated R4, was identified using a Streptococcus pneumoniae phage displayed genomic library after selection with a human convalescent serum. Immunofluorescence analysis with anti-R4 antisera showed that Spr1875 was expressed on the surface of strains belonging to different serotypes. Moreover, the gene was present with little sequence variability in 27 different pneumococcal strains isolated worldwide. A mutant lacking Spr1875 was considerably less virulent than the wild type D39 strain in an intravenous mouse model of infection. Moreover, immunization with the R4 recombinant fragment, but not with the whole Spr1875 protein, induced significant protection against sepsis in mice. Lack of protection after immunization with the whole protein was related to the presence of immunodominant, non-protective epitopes located outside of the R4 fragment. In conclusion, our data indicate that Spr1875 has a role in pneumococcal virulence and is immunogenic. As the R4 fragment conferred immunoprotection from experimental sepsis, selected antigenic fragments of Spr1875 may be useful for the development of a pneumococcal protein-based vaccine

Association between the metabolic syndrome and its components and gait speed among U.S. adults aged 50 years and older: a cross-sectional analysis

BACKGROUND: To examine the relationship between the metabolic syndrome and its components and gait speed among older U.S. men and women. Whether these associations are independent of physical activity was also explored. METHODS: Eight hundred and thirty-five men and 850 women aged ≥50 years from the continuous National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999–2002 were examined. We used the definition of the metabolic syndrome developed by the U.S. National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III. Gait speed was measured with a 6.10-meter timed walk examination. RESULTS: The prevalence of the metabolic syndrome was 40.2% in men and 45.6% in women (P = .127). The prevalence of gait speed impairment was 29.3% in men and 12.5% in women (P < .001). No association was found between the metabolic syndrome and gait speed impairment. After including the individual components of the metabolic syndrome in a logistic model adjusted for age and leisure-time physical activity, abdominal obesity, low HDL cholesterol, and high fasting glucose were significantly associated with gait speed impairment among women (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 0.48, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.26 to 0.89; AOR = 2.26, 95% CI = 1.08 to 4.75; and AOR = 2.05, 95% CI = 1.12 to 3.74, respectively). Further adjustment for race/ethnicity, education, smoking status, alcohol consumption, arthritis status, and use of an assistive device attenuated these associations; among women, abdominal obesity and low HDL cholesterol remained significantly associated with gait speed impairment (AOR = 0.37, 95% CI = 0.18 to 0.76 and AOR = 2.45, 95% CI = 1.07 to 5.63, respectively) while the association between hyperglycemia and impaired gait speed attenuated to nonsignificance. CONCLUSION: Among women, gait speed impairment is associated with low HDL cholesterol and inversely with abdominal obesity. These associations may be sex-dependent and warrant further research

Grasping Kinematics from the Perspective of the Individual Digits: A Modelling Study

Grasping is a prototype of human motor coordination. Nevertheless, it is not known what determines the typical movement patterns of grasping. One way to approach this issue is by building models. We developed a model based on the movements of the individual digits. In our model the following objectives were taken into account for each digit: move smoothly to the preselected goal position on the object without hitting other surfaces, arrive at about the same time as the other digit and never move too far from the other digit. These objectives were implemented by regarding the tips of the digits as point masses with a spring between them, each attracted to its goal position and repelled from objects' surfaces. Their movements were damped. Using a single set of parameters, our model can reproduce a wider variety of experimental findings than any previous model of grasping. Apart from reproducing known effects (even the angles under which digits approach trapezoidal objects' surfaces, which no other model can explain), our model predicted that the increase in maximum grip aperture with object size should be greater for blocks than for cylinders. A survey of the literature shows that this is indeed how humans behave. The model can also adequately predict how single digit pointing movements are made. This supports the idea that grasping kinematics follow from the movements of the individual digits

Demographic, clinical and antibody characteristics of patients with digital ulcers in systemic sclerosis: data from the DUO Registry

OBJECTIVES: The Digital Ulcers Outcome (DUO) Registry was designed to describe the clinical and antibody characteristics, disease course and outcomes of patients with digital ulcers associated with systemic sclerosis (SSc). METHODS: The DUO Registry is a European, prospective, multicentre, observational, registry of SSc patients with ongoing digital ulcer disease, irrespective of treatment regimen. Data collected included demographics, SSc duration, SSc subset, internal organ manifestations, autoantibodies, previous and ongoing interventions and complications related to digital ulcers. RESULTS: Up to 19 November 2010 a total of 2439 patients had enrolled into the registry. Most were classified as either limited cutaneous SSc (lcSSc; 52.2%) or diffuse cutaneous SSc (dcSSc; 36.9%). Digital ulcers developed earlier in patients with dcSSc compared with lcSSc. Almost all patients (95.7%) tested positive for antinuclear antibodies, 45.2% for anti-scleroderma-70 and 43.6% for anticentromere antibodies (ACA). The first digital ulcer in the anti-scleroderma-70-positive patient cohort occurred approximately 5 years earlier than the ACA-positive patient group. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides data from a large cohort of SSc patients with a history of digital ulcers. The early occurrence and high frequency of digital ulcer complications are especially seen in patients with dcSSc and/or anti-scleroderma-70 antibodies