Optimal leverage from non-ergodicity

In modern portfolio theory, the balancing of expected returns on investments against uncertainties in those returns is aided by the use of utility functions. The Kelly criterion offers another approach, rooted in information theory, that always implies logarithmic utility. The two approaches seem incompatible, too loosely or too tightly constraining investors' risk preferences, from their respective perspectives. The conflict can be understood on the basis that the multiplicative models used in both approaches are non-ergodic which leads to ensemble-average returns differing from time-average returns in single realizations. The classic treatments, from the very beginning of probability theory, use ensemble-averages, whereas the Kelly-result is obtained by considering time-averages. Maximizing the time-average growth rates for an investment defines an optimal leverage, whereas growth rates derived from ensemble-average returns depend linearly on leverage. The latter measure can thus incentivize investors to maximize leverage, which is detrimental to time-average growth and overall market stability. The Sharpe ratio is insensitive to leverage. Its relation to optimal leverage is discussed. A better understanding of the significance of time-irreversibility and non-ergodicity and the resulting bounds on leverage may help policy makers in reshaping financial risk controls.Comment: 17 pages, 3 figures. Updated figures and extended discussion of ergodicit

Knowledge and behavior of Nigerian dentists concerning the treatment of children with special needs

BACKGROUND: Children with special needs (CSN) are reported to receive less adequate dental care due to various behavioral problems and barriers created by dental professionals. This study was carried out to determine the knowledge and behaviour of Nigerian dentists concerning the treatment of CSN. METHODS: Questionnaires consisting of open and closed ended questions requesting socio-demographic information, type of practice, undergraduate and postgraduate training, self-rated knowledge and behaviour concerning care of CSN, were hand delivered to 359 dentists in the 3 geographical zones of Nigeria over a period of 8 weeks. Responses were compared across age groups, gender, type of practice and training received. RESULT: Two hundred and eighty questionnaires were returned completed, constituting 79.9% response rate. Most of the respondents were aged 30 – 39 years (44.3%). There were more males (56.1%) and more recent graduates of 10 years and below (78.5%). Over 80% of respondents had treated children with disabilities, those with physical disabilities being most encountered. Only 19.3% of respondents rated their knowledge of management of CSN as adequate, with no significant difference across age groups and gender, but with a significantly higher number of older graduates reporting to have adequate knowledge (p < 0.05). Those who had undergraduate training in care of CSN were 69.5% compared with only 12.8% who had post graduate training. Only 11.8% rated their undergraduate training as adequate. Thirty seven percent of respondents rated the CSN they had treated as very challenging. A higher proportion of older graduates (of more than 10 years post graduation) and those who rated their undergraduate training as inadequate used sedation and general anaesthesia. Seventy one percent of respondents were willing to treat CSN, with no significant difference across age groups, gender and training, but with a significantly higher percentage among those who had rated their knowledge as adequate. Most of those who were unwilling to treat CSN felt their management was tedious and challenging. CONCLUSION: From this study, very few dentists reported to have adequate knowledge of management of CSN, irrespective of age, gender and place of practice. A significant number of those with more experience rated their knowledge as adequate. Although most dentists rated the children's behaviour as challenging, they indicated their willingness to treat them in their practices

Variability in depression prevalence in early rheumatoid arthritis: a comparison of the CES-D and HAD-D Scales

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Depression is common in rheumatoid arthritis (RA), however reported prevalence varies considerably. Two frequently used instruments to identify depression are the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression (CES-D) scale, and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS). The objectives of this study were to test if the CES-D and HADS-D (a) satisfy current modern psychometric standards for unidimensional measurement in an early RA sample; (b) measure the same construct (i.e. depression); and (c) identify similar levels of depression.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data from the two scales completed by patients with early RA were fitted to the Rasch measurement model to show that (a) each scale satisfies the criteria of fit to the model, including strict unidimensionality; (b) that the scales can be co-calibrated onto a single underlying continuum of depression and to (c) examine the location of the cut points on the underlying continuum as indication of the prevalence of depression.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Ninety-two patients with early RA (62% female; mean age = 56.3, SD = 13.7) gave 141 sets of paired CES-D and HAD-D data. Fit of the data from the CES-D was found to be poor, and the scale had to be reduced to 13 items to satisfy Rasch measurement criteria whereas the HADS-D met model expectations from the outset. The 20 items combined (CES-D13 and HADS-D) satisfied Rasch model expectations. The CES-D gave a much higher prevalence of depression than the HADS-D.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The CES-D in its present form is unsuitable for use in patients with early RA, and needs to be reduced to a 13-item scale. The HADS-D is valid for early RA and the two scales measure the same underlying construct but their cut points lead to different estimates of the level of depression. Revised cut points on the CES-D13 provide comparative prevalence rates.</p

Time trends in socioeconomic inequalities in cancer mortality: results from a 35 year prospective study in British men.

BACKGROUND: Socioeconomic inequalities in cancer mortality in Britain have been shown to be present in the 1990s and early 2000s. Little is known about on-going patterns in such inequalities in cancer mortality. We examined time trends in socioeconomic inequalities in cancer mortality in Britain between 1978 and 2013. METHODS: A socially representative cohort of 7489 British men with data on longest-held occupational social class, followed up for 35 years, in whom 1484 cancer deaths occurred. RESULTS: The hazard ratio for cancer mortality for manual vs. non-manual social classes remained unchanged; among men aged 50-59 years it was 1.62 (95%CI 1.17-2.24) between 1980-1990 and 1.65 (95%CI 1.14-2.40) between 1990-2000. The absolute difference (non-manual minus manual) in probability of surviving death from cancer to 70 years remained at 3% over the follow-up. The consistency of risks over time was similar for both smoking-related and non-smoking related cancer mortality. CONCLUSION: Socioeconomic inequalities in cancer mortality in Britain remain unchanged over the last 35 years and need to be urgently addressed

TRY plant trait database - enhanced coverage and open access

Plant traits-the morphological, anatomical, physiological, biochemical and phenological characteristics of plants-determine how plants respond to environmental factors, affect other trophic levels, and influence ecosystem properties and their benefits and detriments to people. Plant trait data thus represent the basis for a vast area of research spanning from evolutionary biology, community and functional ecology, to biodiversity conservation, ecosystem and landscape management, restoration, biogeography and earth system modelling. Since its foundation in 2007, the TRY database of plant traits has grown continuously. It now provides unprecedented data coverage under an open access data policy and is the main plant trait database used by the research community worldwide. Increasingly, the TRY database also supports new frontiers of trait-based plant research, including the identification of data gaps and the subsequent mobilization or measurement of new data. To support this development, in this article we evaluate the extent of the trait data compiled in TRY and analyse emerging patterns of data coverage and representativeness. Best species coverage is achieved for categorical traits-almost complete coverage for 'plant growth form'. However, most traits relevant for ecology and vegetation modelling are characterized by continuous intraspecific variation and trait-environmental relationships. These traits have to be measured on individual plants in their respective environment. Despite unprecedented data coverage, we observe a humbling lack of completeness and representativeness of these continuous traits in many aspects. We, therefore, conclude that reducing data gaps and biases in the TRY database remains a key challenge and requires a coordinated approach to data mobilization and trait measurements. This can only be achieved in collaboration with other initiatives

Breeding histories and selection criteria for oilseed rape in Europe and China identified by genome wide pedigree dissection

Selection breeding has played a key role in the improvement of seed yield and quality in oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.). We genotyped Tapidor (European), Ningyou7 (Chinese) and their progenitors with the Brassica 60 K Illumina Infinium SNP array and mapped a total of 29,347 SNP markers onto the reference genome of Darmor-bzh. Identity by descent (IBD) refers to a haplotype segment of a chromosome inherited from a shared common ancestor. IBDs identified on the C subgenome were larger than those on the A subgenome within both the Tapidor and Ningyou7 pedigrees. IBD number and length were greater in the Ningyou7 pedigree than in the Tapidor pedigree. Seventy nine QTLs for flowering time, seed quality and root morphology traits were identified in the IBDs of Tapidor and Ningyou7. Many more candidate genes had been selected within the Ningyou7 pedigree than within the Tapidor pedigree. These results highlight differences in the transfer of favorable gene clusters controlling key traits during selection breeding in Europe and China

A Computational Clonal Analysis of the Developing Mouse Limb Bud

A comprehensive spatio-temporal description of the tissue movements underlying organogenesis would be an extremely useful resource to developmental biology. Clonal analysis and fate mappings are popular experiments to study tissue movement during morphogenesis. Such experiments allow cell populations to be labeled at an early stage of development and to follow their spatial evolution over time. However, disentangling the cumulative effects of the multiple events responsible for the expansion of the labeled cell population is not always straightforward. To overcome this problem, we develop a novel computational method that combines accurate quantification of 2D limb bud morphologies and growth modeling to analyze mouse clonal data of early limb development. Firstly, we explore various tissue movements that match experimental limb bud shape changes. Secondly, by comparing computational clones with newly generated mouse clonal data we are able to choose and characterize the tissue movement map that better matches experimental data. Our computational analysis produces for the first time a two dimensional model of limb growth based on experimental data that can be used to better characterize limb tissue movement in space and time. The model shows that the distribution and shapes of clones can be described as a combination of anisotropic growth with isotropic cell mixing, without the need for lineage compartmentalization along the AP and PD axis. Lastly, we show that this comprehensive description can be used to reassess spatio-temporal gene regulations taking tissue movement into account and to investigate PD patterning hypothesis

Inhibitors of mitogen-activated protein kinases differentially regulate costimulated T cell cytokine production and mouse airway eosinophilia

BACKGROUND: T cells play a dominant role in the pathogenesis of asthma. Costimulation of T cells is necessary to fully activate them. An inducible costimulator (ICOS) of T cells is predominantly expressed on Th2 cells. Therefore, interference of signaling pathways precipitated by ICOS may present new therapeutic options for Th2 dominated diseases such as asthma. However, these signaling pathways are poorly characterized in vitro and in vivo. METHODS: Human primary CD4(+ )T cells from blood were activated by beads with defined combinations of surface receptor stimulating antibodies and costimulatory receptor ligands. Real-time RT-PCR was used for measuring the production of cytokines from activated T cells. Activation of mitogen activated protein kinase (MAPK) signaling pathways leading to cytokine synthesis were investigated by western blot analysis and by specific inhibitors. The effect of inhibitors in vivo was tested in a murine asthma model of late phase eosinophilia. Lung inflammation was assessed by differential cell count of the bronchoalveolar lavage, determination of serum IgE and lung histology. RESULTS: We showed in vitro that ICOS and CD28 are stimulatory members of an expanding family of co-receptors, whereas PD1 ligands failed to co-stimulate T cells. ICOS and CD28 activated different MAPK signaling cascades necessary for cytokine activation. By means of specific inhibitors we showed that p38 and ERK act downstream of CD28 and that ERK and JNK act downstream of ICOS leading to the induction of various T cell derived cytokines. Using a murine asthma model of late phase eosinophilia, we demonstrated that the ERK inhibitor U0126 and the JNK inhibitor SP600125 inhibited lung inflammation in vivo. This inhibition correlated with the inhibition of Th2 cytokines in the BAL fluid. Despite acting on different signaling cascades, we could not detect synergistic action of any combination of MAPK inhibitors. In contrast, we found that the p38 inhibitor SB203580 antagonizes the action of the ERK inhibitor U0126 in vitro and in vivo. CONCLUSION: These results demonstrate that the MAPKs ERK and JNK may be suitable targets for anti-inflammatory therapy of asthma, whereas inhibition of p38 seems to be an unlikely target

Judah Folkman, a pioneer in the study of angiogenesis

More than 30 years ago, Judah Folkman found a revolutionary new way to think about cancer. He postulated that in order to survive and grow, tumors require blood vessels, and that by cutting off that blood supply, a cancer could be starved into remission. What began as a revolutionary approach to cancer has evolved into one of the most exciting areas of scientific inquiry today. Over the years, Folkman and a growing team of researchers have isolated the proteins and unraveled the processes that regulate angiogenesis. Meanwhile, a new generation of angiogenesis research has emerged as well, widening the field into new areas of human disease and deepening it to examine the underlying biological processes responsible for those diseases

Ross, Macdonald, and a Theory for the Dynamics and Control of Mosquito-Transmitted Pathogens

Ronald Ross and George Macdonald are credited with developing a mathematical model of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission. A systematic historical review suggests that several mathematicians and scientists contributed to development of the Ross-Macdonald model over a period of 70 years. Ross developed two different mathematical models, Macdonald a third, and various “Ross-Macdonald” mathematical models exist. Ross-Macdonald models are best defined by a consensus set of assumptions. The mathematical model is just one part of a theory for the dynamics and control of mosquito-transmitted pathogens that also includes epidemiological and entomological concepts and metrics for measuring transmission. All the basic elements of the theory had fallen into place by the end of the Global Malaria Eradication Programme (GMEP, 1955–1969) with the concept of vectorial capacity, methods for measuring key components of transmission by mosquitoes, and a quantitative theory of vector control. The Ross-Macdonald theory has since played a central role in development of research on mosquito-borne pathogen transmission and the development of strategies for mosquito-borne disease prevention