Computational framework for longevity risk management

Longevity risk threatens the financial stability of private and government sponsored defined benefit pension systems as well as social security schemes, in an environment already characterized by persistent low interest rates and heightened financial uncertainty. The mortality experience of countries in the industrialized world would suggest a substantial age-time interaction, with the two dominant trends affecting different age groups at different times. From a statistical point of view, this indicates a dependence structure. It is observed that mortality improvements are similar for individuals of contiguous ages (Wills and Sherris, Integrating financial and demographic longevity risk models: an Australian model for financial applications, Discussion Paper PI-0817, 2008). Moreover, considering the dataset by single ages, the correlations between the residuals for adjacent age groups tend to be high (as noted in Denton et al., J Population Econ 18:203-227, 2005). This suggests that there is value in exploring the dependence structure, also across time, in other words the inter-period correlation. In this research, we focus on the projections of mortality rates, contravening the most commonly encountered dependence property which is the "lack of dependence" (Denuit et al., Actuarial theory for dependent risks: measures. Orders and models, Wiley, New York, 2005). By taking into account the presence of dependence across age and time which leads to systematic over-estimation or under-estimation of uncertainty in the estimates (Liu and Braun, J Probability Stat, 813583:15, 2010), the paper analyzes a tailor-made bootstrap methodology for capturing the spatial dependence in deriving confidence intervals for mortality projection rates. We propose a method which leads to a prudent measure of longevity risk, avoiding the structural incompleteness of the ordinary simulation bootstrap methodology which involves the assumption of independence

Comparison of outcomes following a cytological or histological diagnosis of malignant mesothelioma

Background: Survival with the epithelioid subtype of malignant mesothelioma (MM) is longer than the biphasic or sarcomatoid subtypes. There is concern that cytology-diagnosed epithelioid MM may underdiagnose the biphasic subtype. This study examines survival differences between patients with epithelioid MM diagnosed by cytology only and other subtypes diagnosed by histology. Methods: Demographics, diagnosis method, MM subtype and survival were extracted from the Western Australia (WA) Mesothelioma Registry, which records details of all MM cases occurring in WA. Results: A total of 2024 MM cases were identified over 42 years. One thousand seven hundred forty-four (86.2%) were male, median (IQR) age was 68.6 (60.4–77.0) years. A total of 1212 (59.9%) cases were identified as epithelioid subtype of which 499 (41.2%) were diagnosed using fluid cytology only. Those with a cytology-only diagnosis were older than the histology group (median 70.2 vs 67.6 years, P<0.001), but median survival was similar (cytology 10.6 (5.5–19.2) vs histology 11.1 (4.8–19.8) months, P=0.727) and Cox regression modelling adjusting for age, sex, site and time since first exposure showed no difference in survival between the different diagnostic approaches. Conclusions: Survival of cytologically and histologically diagnosed epithelioid MM cases does not differ. A diagnostic tap should be considered adequate to diagnose epithelioid MM without need for further invasive testing

Toll-like receptor 2 expression is decreased on alveolar macrophages in cigarette smokers and COPD patients

BACKROUND: Cigarette smoke exposure including biologically active lipopolysaccharide (LPS) in the particulate phase of cigarette smoke induces activation of alveolar macrophages (AM) and alveolar epithelial cells leading to production of inflammatory mediators. This represents a crucial mechanism in the pathogenesis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Respiratory pathogens are a major cause of exacerbations leading to recurrent cycles of injury and repair. The interaction between pathogen-associated molecular patterns and the host is mediated by pattern recognition receptors (PRR's). In the present study we characterized the expression of Toll-like receptor (TLR)- 2, TLR4 and CD14 on human AM compared to autologous monocytes obtained from patients with COPD, healthy smokers and non-smokers. METHODS: The study population consisted of 14 COPD patients without evidence for acute exacerbation, 10 healthy smokers and 17 healthy non-smokers stratified according to age. The expression of TLR2, TLR4 and CD14 surface molecules on human AM compared to autologous monocytes was assessed ex vivo using FACS analysis. In situ hybridization was performed on bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) cells by application of the new developed HOPE-fixative. RESULTS: The expression of TLR2, TLR4 and CD14 on AM from COPD patients, smokers and non-smokers was reduced as compared to autologous monocytes. Comparing AM we detected a reduced expression of TLR2 in COPD patients and smokers. In addition TLR2 mRNA and protein expression was increased after LPS stimulation on non-smokers AM in contrast to smokers and COPD patients. CONCLUSION: Our data suggest a smoke related change in the phenotype of AM's and the cellular response to microbial stimulation which may be associated with impairment of host defenses in the lower respiratory tract

Effective Caspase Inhibition Blocks Neutrophil Apoptosis and Reveals Mcl-1 as Both a Regulator and a Target of Neutrophil Caspase Activation

Human tissue inflammation is terminated, at least in part, by the death of inflammatory neutrophils by apoptosis. The regulation of this process is therefore key to understanding and manipulating inflammation resolution. Previous data have suggested that the short-lived pro-survival Bcl-2 family protein, Mcl-1, is instrumental in determining neutrophil lifespan. However, Mcl-1 can be cleaved following caspase activity, and the possibility therefore remains that the observed fall in Mcl-1 levels is due to caspase activity downstream of caspase activation, rather than being a key event initiating apoptosis in human neutrophils

Genetic and pharmacological inhibition of CDK9 drives neutrophil apoptosis to resolve inflammation in zebrafish in vivo

Neutrophilic inflammation is tightly regulated and subsequently resolves to limit tissue damage and promote repair. When the timely resolution of inflammation is dysregulated, tissue damage and disease results. One key control mechanism is neutrophil apoptosis, followed by apoptotic cell clearance by phagocytes such as macrophages. Cyclin-dependent kinase (CDK) inhibitor drugs induce neutrophil apoptosis in vitro and promote resolution of inflammation in rodent models. Here we present the first in vivo evidence, using pharmacological and genetic approaches, that CDK9 is involved in the resolution of neutrophil-dependent inflammation. Using live cell imaging in zebrafish with labelled neutrophils and macrophages, we show that pharmacological inhibition, morpholino-mediated knockdown and CRISPR/cas9-mediated knockout of CDK9 enhances inflammation resolution by reducing neutrophil numbers via induction of apoptosis after tailfin injury. Importantly, knockdown of the negative regulator La-related protein 7 (LaRP7) increased neutrophilic inflammation. Our data show that CDK9 is a possible target for controlling resolution of inflammation

Direct integration of intensity-level data from Affymetrix and Illumina microarrays improves statistical power for robust reanalysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Affymetrix GeneChips and Illumina BeadArrays are the most widely used commercial single channel gene expression microarrays. Public data repositories are an extremely valuable resource, providing array-derived gene expression measurements from many thousands of experiments. Unfortunately many of these studies are underpowered and it is desirable to improve power by combining data from more than one study; we sought to determine whether platform-specific bias precludes direct integration of probe intensity signals for combined reanalysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Using Affymetrix and Illumina data from the microarray quality control project, from our own clinical samples, and from additional publicly available datasets we evaluated several approaches to directly integrate intensity level expression data from the two platforms. After mapping probe sequences to Ensembl genes we demonstrate that, ComBat and cross platform normalisation (XPN), significantly outperform mean-centering and distance-weighted discrimination (DWD) in terms of minimising inter-platform variance. In particular we observed that DWD, a popular method used in a number of previous studies, removed systematic bias at the expense of genuine biological variability, potentially reducing legitimate biological differences from integrated datasets.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Normalised and batch-corrected intensity-level data from Affymetrix and Illumina microarrays can be directly combined to generate biologically meaningful results with improved statistical power for robust, integrated reanalysis.</p

Macrophage phenotype is associated with disease severity in preterm infants with chronic lung disease.

The etiology of persistent lung inflammation in preterm infants with chronic lung disease of prematurity (CLD) is poorly characterized, hampering efforts to stratify prognosis and treatment. Airway macrophages are important innate immune cells with roles in both the induction and resolution of tissue inflammation

Multifractal Spatial Patterns and Diversity in an Ecological Succession

We analyzed the relationship between biodiversity and spatial biomass heterogeneity along an ecological succession developed in the laboratory. Periphyton (attached microalgae) biomass spatial patterns at several successional stages were obtained using digital image analysis and at the same time we estimated the species composition and abundance. We show that the spatial pattern was self-similar and as the community developed in an homogeneous environment the pattern is self-organized. To characterize it we estimated the multifractal spectrum of generalized dimensions Dq. Using Dq we analyze the existence of cycles of heterogeneity during succession and the use of the information dimension D1 as an index of successional stage. We did not find cycles but the values of D1 showed an increasing trend as the succession developed and the biomass was higher. D1 was also negatively correlated with Shannon's diversity. Several studies have found this relationship in different ecosystems but here we prove that the community self-organizes and generates its own spatial heterogeneity influencing diversity. If this is confirmed with more experimental and theoretical evidence D1 could be used as an index, easily calculated from remote sensing data, to detect high or low diversity areas

Use of Zebrafish to Probe the Divergent Virulence Potentials and Toxin Requirements of Extraintestinal Pathogenic Escherichia coli

Extraintestinal pathogenic E. coli (ExPEC) cause an array of diseases, including sepsis, neonatal meningitis, and urinary tract infections. Many putative virulence factors that might modulate ExPEC pathogenesis have been identified through sequencing efforts, epidemiology, and gene expression profiling, but few of these genes have been assigned clearly defined functional roles during infection. Using zebrafish embryos as surrogate hosts, we have developed a model system with the ability to resolve diverse virulence phenotypes and niche-specific restrictions among closely related ExPEC isolates during either localized or systemic infections. In side-by-side comparisons of prototypic ExPEC isolates, we observed an unexpectedly high degree of phenotypic diversity that is not readily apparent using more traditional animal hosts. In particular, the capacity of different ExPEC isolates to persist and multiply within the zebrafish host and cause disease was shown to be variably dependent upon two secreted toxins, α-hemolysin and cytotoxic necrotizing factor. Both of these toxins appear to function primarily in the neutralization of phagocytes, which are recruited in high numbers to sites of infection where they act as an essential host defense against ExPEC as well as less virulent E. coli strains. These results establish zebrafish as a valuable tool for the elucidation and functional analysis of both ExPEC virulence factors and host defense mechanisms

The Use of PRV-Bartha to Define Premotor Inputs to Lumbar Motoneurons in the Neonatal Spinal Cord of the Mouse

The neonatal mouse has become a model system for studying the locomotor function of the lumbar spinal cord. However, information about the synaptic connectivity within the governing neural network remains scarce. A neurotropic pseudorabies virus (PRV) Bartha has been used to map neuronal connectivity in other parts of the nervous system, due to its ability to travel trans-neuronally. Its use in spinal circuits regulating locomotion has been limited and no study has defined the time course of labelling for neurons known to project monosynaptically to motoneurons.Here we investigated the ability of PRV Bartha, expressing green and/or red fluorescence, to label spinal neurons projecting monosynaptically to motoneurons of two principal hindlimb muscles, the tibialis anterior (TA) and gastrocnemius (GC). As revealed by combined immunocytochemistry and confocal microscopy, 24-32 h after the viral muscle injection the label was restricted to the motoneuron pool while at 32-40 h the fluorescence was seen in interneurons throughout the medial and lateral ventral grey matter. Two classes of ipsilateral interneurons known to project monosynaptically to motoneurons (Renshaw cells and cells of origin of C-terminals) were consistently labeled at 40 h post-injection but also a group in the ventral grey matter contralaterally. Our results suggest that the labeling of last order interneurons occurred 8-12 h after motoneuron labeling and we presume this is the time taken by the virus to cross one synapse, to travel retrogradely and to replicate in the labeled cells.The study establishes the time window for virally-labelling monosynaptic projections to lumbar motoneurons following viral injection into hindlimb muscles. Moreover, it provides a good foundation for intracellular targeting of the labeled neurons in future physiological studies and better understanding the functional organization of the lumbar neural networks