Statistical Inference for Multi-Pathogen Systems

There is growing interest in understanding the nature and consequences of interactions among infectious agents. Pathogen interactions can be operational at different scales, either within a co-infected host or in host populations where they co-circulate, and can be either cooperative or competitive. The detection of interactions among pathogens has typically involved the study of synchrony in the oscillations of the protagonists, but as we show here, phase association provides an unreliable dynamical fingerprint for this task. We assess the capacity of a likelihood-based inference framework to accurately detect and quantify the presence and nature of pathogen interactions on the basis of realistic amounts and kinds of simulated data. We show that when epidemiological and demographic processes are well understood, noisy time series data can contain sufficient information to allow correct inference of interactions in multi-pathogen systems. The inference power is dependent on the strength and time-course of the underlying mechanism: stronger and longer-lasting interactions are more easily and more precisely quantified. We examine the limitations of our approach to stochastic temporal variation, under-reporting, and over-aggregation of data. We propose that likelihood shows promise as a basis for detection and quantification of the effects of pathogen interactions and the determination of their (competitive or cooperative) nature on the basis of population-level time-series data

Synergistic Interactions between the NS3hel and E Proteins Contribute to the Virulence of Dengue Virus Type 1

Dengue virus constitutes a significant public health problem in tropical regions of the world. Despite the high morbidity and mortality of this infection, no effective antiviral drugs or vaccines are available for the treatment or prevention of dengue infections. The profile of clinical signs associated with dengue infection has changed in recent years with an increase in the number of episodes displaying unusual signs. We use reverse genetics technology to engineer DENV-1 viruses with subsets of mutations previously identified in highly neurovirulent strains to provide insights into the molecular mechanisms underlying dengue neuropathogenesis. We found that single mutations affecting the E and NS3hel proteins, introduced in a different genetic context, had a synergistic effect increasing DENV replication capacity in human and mosquito derived cells in vitro. We also demonstrated correlations between the presence of these mutations and viral replication efficiency, viral loads, the induction of innate immune response genes and pathogenesis in a mouse model. These results should improve our understanding of the DENV-host cell interaction and contribute to the development of effective antiviral strategies

Beyond traditional surveillance: applying syndromic surveillance to developing settings – opportunities and challenges

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>All countries need effective disease surveillance systems for early detection of outbreaks. The revised International Health Regulations [IHR], which entered into force for all 194 World Health Organization member states in 2007, have expanded traditional infectious disease notification to include surveillance for public health events of potential international importance, even if the causative agent is not yet known. However, there are no clearly established guidelines for how countries should conduct this surveillance, which types of emerging disease syndromes should be reported, nor any means for enforcement.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>The commonly established concept of syndromic surveillance in developed regions encompasses the use of pre-diagnostic information in a near real time fashion for further investigation for public health action. Syndromic surveillance is widely used in North America and Europe, and is typically thought of as a highly complex, technology driven automated tool for early detection of outbreaks. Nonetheless, low technology applications of syndromic surveillance are being used worldwide to augment traditional surveillance.</p> <p>Summary</p> <p>In this paper, we review examples of these novel applications in the detection of vector-borne diseases, foodborne illness, and sexually transmitted infections. We hope to demonstrate that syndromic surveillance in its basic version is a feasible and effective tool for surveillance in developing countries and may facilitate compliance with the new IHR guidelines.</p

Role of the Chemokine Receptors CCR1, CCR2 and CCR4 in the Pathogenesis of Experimental Dengue Infection in Mice

Dengue virus (DENV), a mosquito-borne flavivirus, is a public health problem in many tropical countries. Recent clinical data have shown an association between levels of different chemokines in plasma and severity of dengue. We evaluated the role of CC chemokine receptors CCR1, CCR2 and CCR4 in an experimental model of DENV-2 infection in mice. Infection of mice induced evident clinical disease and tissue damage, including thrombocytopenia, hemoconcentration, lymphopenia, increased levels of transaminases and pro-inflammatory cytokines, and lethality in WT mice. Importantly, infected WT mice presented increased levels of chemokines CCL2/JE, CCL3/MIP-1α and CCL5/RANTES in spleen and liver. CCR1-/- mice had a mild phenotype with disease presentation and lethality similar to those of WT mice. In CCR2-/- mice, lethality, liver damage, levels of IL-6 and IFN-γ, and leukocyte activation were attenuated. However, thrombocytopenia, hemoconcentration and systemic TNF-α levels were similar to infected WT mice. Infection enhanced levels of CCL17/TARC, a CCR4 ligand. In CCR4-/- mice, lethality, tissue injury and systemic inflammation were markedly decreased. Despite differences in disease presentation in CCR-deficient mice, there was no significant difference in viral load. In conclusion, activation of chemokine receptors has discrete roles in the pathogenesis of dengue infection. These studies suggest that the chemokine storm that follows severe primary dengue infection associates mostly to development of disease rather than protection

Enzymatic Analysis of Recombinant Japanese Encephalitis Virus NS2B(H)-NS3pro Protease with Fluorogenic Model Peptide Substrates

Background Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV), a member of the Flaviviridae family, causes around 68,000 encephalitis cases annually, of which 20–30% are fatal, while 30–50% of the recovered cases develop severe neurological sequelae. Specific antivirals for JEV would be of great importance, particularly in those cases where the infection has become persistent. Being indispensable for flaviviral replication, the NS2B-NS3 protease is a promising target for design of anti-flaviviral inhibitors. Contrary to related flaviviral proteases, the JEV NS2B-NS3 protease is structurally and mechanistically much less characterized. Here we aimed at establishing a straightforward procedure for cloning, expression, purification and biochemical characterization of JEV NS2B(H)-NS3pro protease. Methodology/Principal Findings The full-length sequence of JEV NS2B-NS3 genotype III strain JaOArS 982 was obtained as a synthetic gene. The sequence of NS2B(H)-NS3pro was generated by splicing by overlap extension PCR (SOE-PCR) and cloned into the pTrcHisA vector. Hexahistidine-tagged NS2B(H)-NS3pro, expressed in E. coli as soluble protein, was purified to &gt;95% purity by a single-step immobilized metal affinity chromatography. SDS-PAGE and immunoblotting of the purified enzyme demonstrated NS2B(H)-NS3pro precursor and its autocleavage products, NS3pro and NS2B(H), as 36, 21, and 10 kDa bands, respectively. Kinetic parameters, Km and kcat, for fluorogenic protease model substrates, Boc-GRR-amc, Boc-LRR-amc, Ac-nKRR-amc, Bz-nKRR-amc, Pyr-RTKR-amc and Abz-(R)4SAG-nY-amide, were obtained using inner filter effect correction. The highest catalytic efficiency kcat/Km was found for Pyr-RTKR-amc (kcat/Km: 1962.96±85.0 M−1 s−1) and the lowest for Boc-LRR-amc (kcat/Km: 3.74±0.3 M−1 s−1). JEV NS3pro is inhibited by aprotinin but to a lesser extent than DEN and WNV NS3pro. Conclusions/Significance A simplified procedure for the cloning, overexpression and purification of the NS2B(H)-NS3pro was established which is generally applicable to other flaviviral proteases. Kinetic parameters obtained for a number of model substrates and inhibitors, are useful for the characterization of substrate specificity and eventually for the design of high-throughput assays aimed at antiviral inhibitor discovery

Modeling the Dynamic Transmission of Dengue Fever: Investigating Disease Persistence

Dengue is the most rapidly spreading mosquito-borne viral disease in the world and approximately 2.5 billion people live in dengue endemic countries. In Brazil it is mainly transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. The wide clinical spectrum ranges from asymptomatic infections or mild illness, to the more severe forms of infection such as dengue hemorrhagic fever or dengue shock syndrome. The spread and dramatic increase in the occurrence of dengue cases in tropical and subtropical countries has been blamed on uncontrolled urbanization, population growth and international traveling. Vaccines are under development and the only current disease control strategy is trying to keep the vector quantity at the lowest possible levels. Mathematical models have been developed to help understand the disease's epidemiology. These models aim not only to predict epidemics but also to expand the capacity of phenomena explanation. We developed a spatially explicit model to simulate the dengue transmission in a densely populated area. The model involves the dynamic interactions between humans and mosquitoes and takes into account human mobility as an important factor of disease spread. We investigated the importance of human population size, human renewal rate, household infestation and ratio of vectors per person in the maintenance of sustained viral circulation

The 2014 ALMA Long Baseline Campaign: An Overview

A major goal of the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) is to make accurate images with resolutions of tens of milliarcseconds, which at submillimeter (submm) wavelengths requires baselines up to ~15 km. To develop and test this capability, a Long Baseline Campaign (LBC) was carried out from September to late November 2014, culminating in end-to-end observations, calibrations, and imaging of selected Science Verification (SV) targets. This paper presents an overview of the campaign and its main results, including an investigation of the short-term coherence properties and systematic phase errors over the long baselines at the ALMA site, a summary of the SV targets and observations, and recommendations for science observing strategies at long baselines. Deep ALMA images of the quasar 3C138 at 97 and 241 GHz are also compared to VLA 43 GHz results, demonstrating an agreement at a level of a few percent. As a result of the extensive program of LBC testing, the highly successful SV imaging at long baselines achieved angular resolutions as fine as 19 mas at ~350 GHz. Observing with ALMA on baselines of up to 15 km is now possible, and opens up new parameter space for submm astronomy

A protocol for a randomised controlled trial of prefabricated versus customised foot orthoses for people with rheumatoid arthritis: the FOCOS RA trial [Foot Orthoses – Customised v Off-the-Shelf in Rheumatoid Arthritis]

Background Foot pain is common in rheumatoid arthritis and appears to persist despite modern day medical management. Several clinical practice guidelines currently recommend the use of foot orthoses for the treatment of foot pain in people with rheumatoid arthritis. However, an evidence gap currently exists concerning the comparative clinical- and cost-effectiveness of prefabricated and customised foot orthoses in people with early rheumatoid arthritis. Early intervention with orthotics may offer the best opportunity for positive therapeutic outcomes. The primary aim of this study is to evaluate the comparative clinical- and cost-effectiveness of prefabricated versus customised orthoses for reducing foot pain over 12 months. Methods/design This is a multi-centre two-arm parallel randomised controlled trial comparing prefabricated versus customised orthoses in participants with early rheumatoid arthritis (< 2 years disease duration). A total of 160 (a minimum of 80 randomised to each arm) eligible participants will be recruited from United Kingdom National Health Service Rheumatology Outpatient Clinics. The primary outcome will be foot pain measured via the Foot Function Index pain subscale at 12 months. Secondary outcomes will include foot related impairments and disability via the Foot Impact Scale for rheumatoid arthritis, global functional status via the Stanford Health Assessment Questionnaire, foot disease activity via the Rheumatoid Arthritis Foot Disease Activity Index, and health-related quality of life at baseline, 6 and 12 months. Process outcomes will include recruitment/retention rates, data completion rates, intervention adherence rates, and participant intervention and trial participation satisfaction. Cost-utility and cost-effectiveness analyses will be undertaken. Discussion Outcome measures collected at baseline, 6 and 12 months will be used to evaluate the comparative clinical- and cost- effectiveness of customised versus prefabricated orthoses for this treatment of early rheumatoid arthritis foot conditions. This trial will help to guide orthotic prescription recommendations for the management of foot pain for people with early rheumatoid arthritis in future. Trial registration ISRCTN13654421. Registered 09 February 2016