Forecasts of COPD mortality in Australia: 2006-2025

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is currently the fifth leading cause of death in Australia, and there are marked differences in mortality trends between men and women. In this study, we have sought to model and forecast age related changes in COPD mortality over time for men and women separately over the period 2006-2025.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Annual COPD death rates in Australia from 1922 to 2005 for age groups (50-54, 55-59, 60-64, 65-69, 70-74, 75-79, 80-84, 85+) were used. Functional time series models of age-specific COPD mortality rates for men and women were used, and forecasts of mortality rates were modelled separately for men and women.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Functional time series models with four basis functions were fitted to each population separately. Twenty-year forecasts were computed, and indicated an overall decline. This decline may be slower for women than for men. By age, we expect similar rates of decline in men over time. In contrast, for women, forecasts for the age group 75-79 years suggest less of a decline over time compared to younger age groups.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>By using a new method to predict age-specific trends in COPD mortality over time, this study provides important insights into at-risk age groups for men and women separately, which has implications for policy and program development.</p

Demonstrating Diversity in Star Formation Histories with the CSI Survey

We present coarse but robust star formation histories (SFHs) derived from spectro-photometric data of the Carnegie-Spitzer-IMACS Survey, for 22,494 galaxies at 0.3<z<0.9 with stellar masses of 10^9 Msun to 10^12 Msun. Our study moves beyond "average" SFHs and distribution functions of specific star formation rates (sSFRs) to individually measured SFHs for tens of thousands of galaxies. By comparing star formation rates (SFRs) with timescales of 10^10, 10^9, and 10^8 years, we find a wide diversity of SFHs: 'old galaxies' that formed most or all of their stars early; galaxies that formed stars with declining or constant SFRs over a Hubble time, and genuinely 'young galaxies' that formed most of their stars since z=1. This sequence is one of decreasing stellar mass, but, remarkably, each type is found over a mass range of a factor of 10. Conversely, galaxies at any given mass follow a wide range of SFHs, leading us to conclude that: (1) halo mass does not uniquely determine SFHs; (2) there is no 'typical' evolutionary track; and (3) "abundance matching" has limitations as a tool for inferring physics. Our observations imply that SFHs are set at an early epoch, and that--for most galaxies--the decline and cessation of star formation occurs over a Hubble-time, without distinct "quenching" events. SFH diversity is inconsistent with models where galaxy mass, at any given epoch, grows simply along relations between SFR and stellar mass, but is consistent with a 2-parameter lognormal form, lending credence to this model from a new and independent perspective.Comment: 17 pages, 10 figures; accepted by ApJ; version 2 - no substantive changes; clarifications and correction

Perinatal Cat and Dog Exposure and the Risk of Asthma and Allergy in the Urban Environment: A Systematic Review of Longitudinal Studies

Background. The literature is contradictory concerning pet exposure and the risk of development of asthma and other allergic diseases. Using longitudinal studies, we aimed to systematically review the impact of pet ownership in the critical perinatal period as a risk factor for allergies in childhood. Methods. Medline database was searched for urban cohort studies with perinatal exposure to cats and/or dogs and subsequent asthma or allergic disease. Results. Nine articles, comprising 6498 participants, met inclusion criteria. Six found a reduction in allergic disease associated with perinatal exposure to dogs or, cats or dogs. One study found no association. Two found increased risk only in high-risk groups. Conclusion. Longitudinal studies in urban populations suggest that perinatal pets, especially dogs, may reduce the development of allergic disease in those without a family history of allergy. Other unmeasured factors such as pet-keeping choices in allergic families may be confounding the association seen in these high-risk families, and further study is required

SGAS 143845.1+145407: A Big, Cool Starburst at Redshift 0.816

We present the discovery and a detailed multi-wavelength study of a strongly-lensed luminous infrared galaxy at z=0.816. Unlike most known lensed galaxies discovered at optical or near-infrared wavelengths this lensed source is red, r-Ks = 3.9 [AB], which the data presented here demonstrate is due to ongoing dusty star formation. The overall lensing magnification (a factor of 17) facilitates observations from the blue optical through to 500micron, fully capturing both the stellar photospheric emission as well as the re-processed thermal dust emission. We also present optical and near-IR spectroscopy. These extensive data show that this lensed galaxy is in many ways typical of IR-detected sources at z~1, with both a total luminosity and size in accordance with other (albeit much less detailed) measurements in samples of galaxies observed in deep fields with the Spitzer telescope. Its far-infrared spectral energy distribution is well-fit by local templates that are an order of magnitude less luminous than the lensed galaxy; local templates of comparable luminosity are too hot to fit. Its size (D~7kpc) is much larger than local luminous infrared galaxies, but in line with sizes observed for such galaxies at z~1. The star formation appears uniform across this spatial scale. In this source, the luminosity of which is typical of sources that dominate the cosmic infrared background, we find that star formation is spatially extended and well organised, quite unlike the compact merger-driven starbursts which are typical for sources of this luminosity at z~0.Comment: 18 pages, 10 figure

Representativeness and repeatability of microenvironmental personal and head exposures to radio-frequency electromagnetic fields

The aims of this study were to: i) investigate the repeatability and representativeness of personal radio frequency-electromagnetic fields (RF-EMFs) exposure measurements, across different microenvironments, ii) perform simultaneous evaluations of personal RF-EMF exposures for the whole body and the head, iii) validate the data obtained with a head-worn personal distributed exposimeter (PDE) against those obtained with an on-body worn personal exposimeter (PEM). Data on personal and head RF-EMF exposures were collected by performing measurements across 15 microenvironments in Melbourne, Australia. A body-worn PEM and a head-worn PDE were used for measuring body and head exposures, respectively. The summary statistics obtained for total RF-EMF exposure showed a high representativeness (r(2) > 0.66 for two paths in the same area) and a high repeatability over time (r(2) > 0.87 for repetitions of the same path). The median head exposure in the 900 MHz downlink band ranged between 0.06 V/m and 0.31 V/m. The results obtained during simultaneous measurements using the two devices showed high correlations (0.42 < r(2) < 0.94). The highest mean total RF-EMF exposure was measured in Melbourne's central business district (0.89 V/m), whereas the lowest mean total exposure was measured in a suburban residential area (0.05 V/m). This study shows that personal RF-EMF microenvironmental measurements in multiple microenvironments have high representativeness and repeatability over time. The personal RF-EMF exposure levels (i.e. body and head exposures) demonstrated moderate to high correlations

Surrounding Greenness and Biological Aging Based on DNA Methylation: A Twin and Family Study in Australia.

BACKGROUND: High surrounding greenness has many health benefits and might contribute to slower biological aging. However, very few studies have evaluated this from the perspective of epigenetics. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to evaluate the association between surrounding greenness and biological aging based on DNA methylation. METHODS: We derived Horvath's DNA methylation age (DNAmAge), Hannum's DNAmAge, PhenoAge, and GrimAge based on DNA methylation measured in peripheral blood samples from 479 Australian women in 130 families. Measures of DNAmAge acceleration (DNAmAgeAC) were derived from the residuals after regressing each DNAmAge metric on chronological age. Greenness was represented by satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) metrics within 300-, 500-, 1,000-, and 2,000-m buffers surrounding participant addresses. Greenness-DNAmAgeAC associations were estimated using a within-sibship design fitted by linear mixed effect models, adjusting for familial clustering and important covariates. RESULTS: Greenness metrics were associated with significantly lower DNAmAgeAC based on GrimAge acceleration, suggesting slower biological aging with higher greenness based on both NDVI and EVI in 300-2,000m buffer areas. For example, each interquartile range increase in NDVI within 1,000m was associated with a 0.59 (95% CI: 0.18, 1.01)-year decrease in GrimAge acceleration. Greenness was also inversely associated with three of the eight components of GrimAge, specifically, DNA methylation-based surrogates of serum cystatin-C, serum growth differentiation factor 15, and smoking pack years. Associations between greenness and biological aging measured by Horvath's and Hannum's DNAmAgeAC were less consistent, and depended on neighborhood socioeconomic status. No significant associations were estimated for PhenoAge acceleration. DISCUSSION: Higher surrounding greenness was associated with slower biological aging, as indicated by GrimAge age acceleration, in Australian women. Associations were also evident for three individual components of GrimAge, but were inconsistent for other measures of biological aging. Additional studies are needed to confirm our results. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP8793

Dynamical modeling of the C iv broad line region of the z=2.805 multiply imaged quasar SDSS J2222+2745

P.W. and T.T. gratefully acknowledge support by the National Science Foundation through grant AST-1907208 "Collaborative Research: Establishing the foundations of black hole mass measurements of AGN across cosmic time" and by the Packard Foundation through a Packard Research Fellowship to T.T. Research at UC Irvine was supported by NSF grant AST-1907290. K.H. acknowledges support from STFC grant ST/R000824/1.We present the first ever models of a broad line region (BLR) at the peak of active galactic nucleus (AGN) activity using the multiply imaged z = 2.805 quasar SDSS J2222+2745. The modeled data consist of monthly spectra covering the broad C IV emission line over a 5.3 yr baseline. The models suggest a thick disk BLR that is inclined by degrees 40 degrees to the observer's line of sight and with an emissivity weighted median radius of = rmedian = 33.0(-2.1)(+2.44) light days. The kinematics are dominated by near-circular Keplerian motion with the remainder inflowing. The restframe lag one would measure from the models is taumedian = 36.4(-1.8)(+1.8) days, which is consistent with measurements based on cross-correlation. We show a possible geometry and transfer function based on the model fits and find that the model-produced velocity-resolved lags are consistent with those from cross-correlation. We measure a black hole mass of log10(MBH/M⊙) = 8.31(-0.06)(+0.07), which requires a scale factor of log10 (fmean,σ) = 0.20(-0.07)(+0.09.). This is the most precise MBH measurement for any AGN at cosmological distances and it demonstrates that the precision required for BH-host coevolution studies is attainable.PostprintPeer reviewe

Paracetamol use in early life and asthma: prospective birth cohort study

Objective To determine if use of paracetamol in early life is an independent risk factor for childhood asthma

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