Identifying Immunological and Clinical Predictors of COVID-19 Severity and Sequelae by Mathematical Modeling

Since its emergence as a pandemic in March 2020, coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outcome has been explored via several predictive models, using specific clinical or biochemical parameters. In the current study, we developed an integrative non-linear predictive model of COVID-19 outcome, using clinical, biochemical, immunological, and radiological data of patients with different disease severities. Initially, the immunological signature of the disease was investigated through transcriptomics analysis of nasopharyngeal swab samples of patients with different COVID-19 severity versus control subjects (exploratory cohort, n=61), identifying significant differential expression of several cytokines. Accordingly, 24 cytokines were validated using a multiplex assay in the serum of COVID-19 patients and control subjects (validation cohort, n=77). Predictors of severity were Interleukin (IL)-10, Programmed Death-Ligand-1 (PDL-1), Tumor necrosis factors-α, absolute neutrophil count, C-reactive protein, lactate dehydrogenase, blood urea nitrogen, and ferritin; with high predictive efficacy (AUC=0.93 and 0.98 using ROC analysis of the predictive capacity of cytokines and biochemical markers, respectively). Increased IL-6 and granzyme B were found to predict liver injury in COVID-19 patients, whereas interferon-gamma (IFN-γ), IL-1 receptor-a (IL-1Ra) and PD-L1 were predictors of remarkable radiological findings. The model revealed consistent elevation of IL-15 and IL-10 in severe cases. Combining basic biochemical and radiological investigations with a limited number of curated cytokines will likely attain accurate predictive value in COVID-19. The model-derived cytokines highlight critical pathways in the pathophysiology of the COVID-19 with insight towards potential therapeutic targets. Our modeling methodology can be implemented using new datasets to identify key players and predict outcomes in new variants of COVID-19

Strong Ultraviolet Pulse From a Newborn Type Ia Supernova

Type Ia supernovae are destructive explosions of carbon oxygen white dwarfs. Although they are used empirically to measure cosmological distances, the nature of their progenitors remains mysterious, One of the leading progenitor models, called the single degenerate channel, hypothesizes that a white dwarf accretes matter from a companion star and the resulting increase in its central pressure and temperature ignites thermonuclear explosion. Here we report observations of strong but declining ultraviolet emission from a Type Ia supernova within four days of its explosion. This emission is consistent with theoretical expectations of collision between material ejected by the supernova and a companion star, and therefore provides evidence that some Type Ia supernovae arise from the single degenerate channel.Comment: Accepted for publication on the 21 May 2015 issue of Natur

Oral health status of 12-year-old school children in Khartoum state, the Sudan; a school-based survey

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Few studies have investigated the prevalence of dental caries among school children in the past decades in Sudan rendering it difficult to understand the status and pattern of oral health.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A school-based survey was conducted using stratified random cluster sampling in Khartoum state, Sudan. Data was collected through interviews and clinical examination by a single examiner. DMFT was measured according to WHO criteria. Gingival index (GI) of Loe & Silness and Plaque index (PI) of Silness & Loe were used.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The mean DMFT for 12-year-olds was found to be 0.42 with a significant caries index (SiC) of 1.4. Private school attendees had significantly higher DMFT (0.57) when compared to public school attendees (0.4). The untreated caries prevalence was 30.5%. In multivariate analysis caries experience (DMFT > 0) was found to be significantly and directly associated with socioeconomic status. The mean GI for the six index teeth was found to be 1.05 (CI 1.03 – 1.07) and the mean PI was 1.30 (CI 1.22 – 1.38).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The prevalence of caries was found to be low. The school children with the higher socioeconomic status formed the high risk group.</p

Effectiveness of screening preschool children for amblyopia: a systematic review

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Amblyopia and amblyogenic factors like strabismus and refractive errors are the most common vision disorders in children. Although different studies suggest that preschool vision screening is associated with a reduced prevalence rate of amblyopia, the value of these programmes is the subject of a continuing scientific and health policy discussion. Therefore, this systematic review focuses on the question of whether screening for amblyopia in children up to the age of six years leads to better vision outcomes.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Ten bibliographic databases were searched for randomised controlled trials, non-randomised controlled trials and cohort studies with no limitations to a specific year of publication and language. The searches were supplemented by handsearching the bibliographies of included studies and reviews to identify articles not captured through our main search strategy.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Five studies met the inclusion criteria. Of these, three studies suggested that screening is associated with an absolute reduction in the prevalence of amblyopia between 0.9% and 1.6% (relative reduction: between 45% and 62%). However, the studies showed weaknesses, limiting the validity and reliability of their findings. The main limitation was that studies with significant results considered only a proportion of the originally recruited children in their analysis. On the other hand, retrospective sample size calculation indicated that the power based on the cohort size was not sufficient to detect small changes between the groups. Outcome parameters such as quality of life or adverse effects of screening have not been adequately investigated in the literature currently available.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Population based preschool vision screening programmes cannot be sufficiently assessed by the literature currently available. However, it is most likely that the present systematic review contains the most detailed description of the main limitations in current available literature evaluating these programmes. Therefore, future research work should be guided by the findings of this publication.</p

Temperature Control of Fimbriation Circuit Switch in Uropathogenic Escherichia coli: Quantitative Analysis via Automated Model Abstraction

Uropathogenic Escherichia coli (UPEC) represent the predominant cause of urinary tract infections (UTIs). A key UPEC molecular virulence mechanism is type 1 fimbriae, whose expression is controlled by the orientation of an invertible chromosomal DNA element—the fim switch. Temperature has been shown to act as a major regulator of fim switching behavior and is overall an important indicator as well as functional feature of many urologic diseases, including UPEC host-pathogen interaction dynamics. Given this panoptic physiological role of temperature during UTI progression and notable empirical challenges to its direct in vivo studies, in silico modeling of corresponding biochemical and biophysical mechanisms essential to UPEC pathogenicity may significantly aid our understanding of the underlying disease processes. However, rigorous computational analysis of biological systems, such as fim switch temperature control circuit, has hereto presented a notoriously demanding problem due to both the substantial complexity of the gene regulatory networks involved as well as their often characteristically discrete and stochastic dynamics. To address these issues, we have developed an approach that enables automated multiscale abstraction of biological system descriptions based on reaction kinetics. Implemented as a computational tool, this method has allowed us to efficiently analyze the modular organization and behavior of the E. coli fimbriation switch circuit at different temperature settings, thus facilitating new insights into this mode of UPEC molecular virulence regulation. In particular, our results suggest that, with respect to its role in shutting down fimbriae expression, the primary function of FimB recombinase may be to effect a controlled down-regulation (rather than increase) of the ON-to-OFF fim switching rate via temperature-dependent suppression of competing dynamics mediated by recombinase FimE. Our computational analysis further implies that this down-regulation mechanism could be particularly significant inside the host environment, thus potentially contributing further understanding toward the development of novel therapeutic approaches to UPEC-caused UTIs

Consanguinity and reproductive health among Arabs

Consanguineous marriages have been practiced since the early existence of modern humans. Until now consanguinity is widely practiced in several global communities with variable rates depending on religion, culture, and geography. Arab populations have a long tradition of consanguinity due to socio-cultural factors. Many Arab countries display some of the highest rates of consanguineous marriages in the world, and specifically first cousin marriages which may reach 25-30% of all marriages. In some countries like Qatar, Yemen, and UAE, consanguinity rates are increasing in the current generation. Research among Arabs and worldwide has indicated that consanguinity could have an effect on some reproductive health parameters such as postnatal mortality and rates of congenital malformations. The association of consanguinity with other reproductive health parameters, such as fertility and fetal wastage, is controversial. The main impact of consanguinity, however, is an increase in the rate of homozygotes for autosomal recessive genetic disorders. Worldwide, known dominant disorders are more numerous than known recessive disorders. However, data on genetic disorders in Arab populations as extracted from the Catalogue of Transmission Genetics in Arabs (CTGA) database indicate a relative abundance of recessive disorders in the region that is clearly associated with the practice of consanguinity

Energetic eruptions leading to a peculiar hydrogen-rich explosion of a massive star

Every supernova so far observed has been considered to be the terminal explosion of a star. Moreover, all supernovae with absorption lines in their spectra show those lines decreasing in velocity over time, as the ejecta expand and thin, revealing slower-moving material that was previously hidden. In addition, every supernova that exhibits the absorption lines of hydrogen has one main light-curve peak, or a plateau in luminosity, lasting approximately 100 days before declining1. Here we report observations of iPTF14hls, an event that has spectra identical to a hydrogen-rich core-collapse supernova, but characteristics that differ extensively from those of known supernovae. The light curve has at least five peaks and remains bright for more than 600 days; the absorption lines show little to no decrease in velocity; and the radius of the line-forming region is more than an order of magnitude bigger than the radius of the photosphere derived from the continuum emission. These characteristics are consistent with a shell of several tens of solar masses ejected by the progenitor star at supernova-level energies a few hundred days before a terminal explosion. Another possible eruption was recorded at the same position in 1954. Multiple energetic pre-supernova eruptions are expected to occur in stars of 95 to 130 solar masses, which experience the pulsational pair instability2,3,4,5. That model, however, does not account for the continued presence of hydrogen, or the energetics observed here. Another mechanism for the violent ejection of mass in massive stars may be required

Factors associated with spontaneous stone passage in a contemporary cohort of patients presenting with acute ureteric colic. Results from the MIMIC Study (A Multi-centre cohort study evaluating the role of Inflammatory Markers in patients presenting with acute ureteric Colic)

Objectives There is conflicting data on the role of white blood cell count (WBC) and other inflammatory markers in spontaneous stone passage in patients with acute ureteric colic. The aim of the study was to assess the relationship of WBC and other routinely collected inflammatory and clinical markers including stone size, stone position and Medically Expulsive Therapy use (MET) with spontaneous stone passage (SSP) in a large contemporary cohort of patients with acute ureteric colic. Subjects and Methods Multi‐centre retrospective cohort study coordinated by the British Urology Researchers in Surgical Training (BURST) Research Collaborative at 71 secondary care hospitals across 4 countries (United Kingdom, Republic of Ireland, Australia and New Zealand). 4170 patients presented with acute ureteric colic and a computer tomography confirmed single ureteric stone. Our primary outcome measure was SSP as defined by the absence of need for intervention to assist stone passage. Multivariable mixed effects logistic regression was used to explore the relationship between key patient factors and SSP. Results 2518 patients were discharged with conservative management and had further follow up with a SSP rate of 74% (n = 1874/2518). Sepsis after discharge with conservative management was reported in 0.6% (n = 16/2518). On multivariable analysis neither WBC, Neutrophils or CRP were seen to predict SSP, with an adjusted OR of 0.97 [95% CI 0.91 to 1.04, p = 0.38], 1.06 [95% CI 0.99 to 1.13, p = 0.1] and 1.00 [95% CI 0.99 to 1.00, p = 0.17], respectively. Medical expulsive therapy (MET) also did not predict SSP [adjusted OR 1.11 [95% CI 0.76 to 1.61]). However, stone size and stone position were significant predictors. SSP for stones 7mm. For stones in the upper ureter the SSP rate was 52% [95% CI 48 to 56], middle ureter was 70% [95% CI 64 to 76], and lower ureter was 83% [95% CI 81 to 85]. Conclusion In contrast to the previously published literature, we found that in patients with acute ureteric colic who are discharged with initial conservative management, neither WBC, Neutrophil count or CRP help determine the likelihood of spontaneous stone passage. We also found no overall benefit from the use of MET. Stone size and position are important predictors and our findings represent the most comprehensive stone passage rates for each mm increase in stone size from a large contemporary cohort adjusting for key potential confounders. We anticipate that these data will aid clinicians managing patients with acute ureteric colic and help guide management decisions and the need for intervention