The influence of calibration curve construction and composition on the accuracy and precision of radiocarbon wiggle-matching of tree rings, illustrated by Southern Hemisphere atmospheric data sets from ad 1500–1950

This research investigates two factors influencing the ability of tree-ring data to provide accurate 14C calibration information: the fitness and rigor of the statistical model used to combine the data into a curve; and the accuracy, precision and reproducibility of the component 14C data sets. It presents a new Bayesian spline method for calibration curve construction and tests it on extant and new Southern Hemisphere (SH) data sets (also examining their dendrochronology and pretreatment) for the post-Little Ice Age (LIA) interval AD 1500–1950. The new method of construction allows calculation of component data offsets, permitting identification of laboratory and geographic biases. Application of the new method to the 10 suitable SH 14C data sets suggests that individual offset ranges for component data sets appear to be in the region of ± 10 yr. Data sets with individual offsets larger than this need to be carefully assessed before selection for calibration purposes. We identify a potential geographical offset associated with the Southern Ocean (high latitude) Campbell Island data. We test the new methodology for wiggle-matching short tree-ring sequences and use an OxCal simulation to assess the likely precision obtainable by wiggle-matching in the post-LIA interval

Model- and calibration-independent test of cosmic acceleration

We present a calibration-independent test of the accelerated expansion of the universe using supernova type Ia data. The test is also model-independent in the sense that no assumptions about the content of the universe or about the parameterization of the deceleration parameter are made and that it does not assume any dynamical equations of motion. Yet, the test assumes the universe and the distribution of supernovae to be statistically homogeneous and isotropic. A significant reduction of systematic effects, as compared to our previous, calibration-dependent test, is achieved. Accelerated expansion is detected at significant level (4.3 sigma in the 2007 Gold sample, 7.2 sigma in the 2008 Union sample) if the universe is spatially flat. This result depends, however, crucially on supernovae with a redshift smaller than 0.1, for which the assumption of statistical isotropy and homogeneity is less well established.Comment: 13 pages, 2 figures, major change

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Light propagation in statistically homogeneous and isotropic universes with general matter content

We derive the relationship of the redshift and the angular diameter distance to the average expansion rate for universes which are statistically homogeneous and isotropic and where the distribution evolves slowly, but which have otherwise arbitrary geometry and matter content. The relevant average expansion rate is selected by the observable redshift and the assumed symmetry properties of the spacetime. We show why light deflection and shear remain small. We write down the evolution equations for the average expansion rate and discuss the validity of the dust approximation.Comment: 42 pages, no figures. v2: Corrected one detail about the angular diameter distance and two typos. No change in result

SHCal20 Southern Hemisphere Calibration, 0–55,000 Years cal BP

Early researchers of radiocarbon levels in Southern Hemisphere tree rings identified a variable North-South hemispheric offset, necessitating construction of a separate radiocarbon calibration curve for the South. We present here SHCal20, a revised calibration curve from 0–55,000 cal BP, based upon SHCal13 and fortified by the addition of 14 new tree-ring data sets in the 2140–0, 3520–3453, 3608–3590 and 13,140–11,375 cal BP time intervals. We detail the statistical approaches used for curve construction and present recommendations for the use of the Northern Hemisphere curve (IntCal20), the Southern Hemisphere curve (SHCal20) and suggest where application of an equal mixture of the curves might be more appropriate. Using our Bayesian spline with errors-in-variables methodology, and based upon a comparison of Southern Hemisphere tree-ring data compared with contemporaneous Northern Hemisphere data, we estimate the mean Southern Hemisphere offset to be 36 ± 27 14C yrs older

Light propagation in statistically homogeneous and isotropic dust universes

We derive the redshift and the angular diameter distance in rotationless dust universes which are statistically homogeneous and isotropic, but have otherwise arbitrary geometry. The calculation from first principles shows that the Dyer-Roeder approximation does not correctly describe the effect of clumping. Instead, the redshift and the distance are determined by the average expansion rate, the matter density today and the null geodesic shear. In particular, the position of the CMB peaks is consistent with significant spatial curvature provided the expansion history is sufficiently close to the spatially flat LambdaCDM model.Comment: 33 pages. v2: Published version. Corrected typo

Reporting guideline for the early stage clinical evaluation of decision support systems driven by artificial intelligence: DECIDE-AI

A growing number of artificial intelligence (AI)-based clinical decision support systems are showing promising performance in preclinical, in silico, evaluation, but few have yet demonstrated real benefit to patient care. Early stage clinical evaluation is important to assess an AI system’s actual clinical performance at small scale, ensure its safety, evaluate the human factors surrounding its use, and pave the way to further large scale trials. However, the reporting of these early studies remains inadequate. The present statement provides a multistakeholder, consensus-based reporting guideline for the Developmental and Exploratory Clinical Investigations of DEcision support systems driven by Artificial Intelligence (DECIDE-AI). We conducted a two round, modified Delphi process to collect and analyse expert opinion on the reporting of early clinical evaluation of AI systems. Experts were recruited from 20 predefined stakeholder categories. The final composition and wording of the guideline was determined at a virtual consensus meeting. The checklist and the Explanation & Elaboration (E&E) sections were refined based on feedback from a qualitative evaluation process. 123 experts participated in the first round of Delphi, 138 in the second, 16 in the consensus meeting, and 16 in the qualitative evaluation. The DECIDE-AI reporting guideline comprises 17 AI specific reporting items (made of 28 subitems) and 10 generic reporting items, with an E&E paragraph provided for each. Through consultation and consensus with a range of stakeholders, we have developed a guideline comprising key items that should be reported in early stage clinical studies of AI-based decision support systems in healthcare. By providing an actionable checklist of minimal reporting items, the DECIDE-AI guideline will facilitate the appraisal of these studies and replicability of their findings

Universal DNA methylation age across mammalian tissues

DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT : The individual-level data from the Mammalian Methylation Consortium can be accessed from several online locations. All data from the Mammalian Methylation Consortium are posted on Gene Expression Omnibus (complete dataset, GSE223748). Subsets of the datasets can also be downloaded from accession numbers GSE174758, GSE184211, GSE184213, GSE184215, GSE184216, GSE184218, GSE184220, GSE184221, GSE184224, GSE190660, GSE190661, GSE190662, GSE190663, GSE190664, GSE174544, GSE190665, GSE174767, GSE184222, GSE184223, GSE174777, GSE174778, GSE173330, GSE164127, GSE147002, GSE147003, GSE147004, GSE223943 and GSE223944. Additional details can be found in Supplementary Note 2. The mammalian data can also be downloaded from the Clock Foundation webpage: https://clockfoundation.org/MammalianMethylationConsortium. The mammalian methylation array is available through the non-profit Epigenetic Clock Development Foundation (https://clockfoundation.org/). The manifest file of the mammalian array and genome annotations of CpG sites can be found on Zenodo (10.5281/zenodo.7574747). All other data supporting the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request. The chip manifest files, genome annotations of CpG sites and the software code for universal pan-mammalian clocks can be found on GitHub95 at https://github.com/shorvath/MammalianMethylationConsortium/tree/v2.0.0. The individual R code for the universal pan-mammalian clocks, EWAS analysis and functional enrichment studies can be also found in the Supplementary Code.SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL 1 : Supplementary Tables 1–3 and Notes 1–6.SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL 2 : Reporting SummarySUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL 3 : Supplementary Data 1–14.SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL 4 : Supplementary Code.Aging, often considered a result of random cellular damage, can be accurately estimated using DNA methylation profiles, the foundation of pan-tissue epigenetic clocks. Here, we demonstrate the development of universal pan-mammalian clocks, using 11,754 methylation arrays from our Mammalian Methylation Consortium, which encompass 59 tissue types across 185 mammalian species. These predictive models estimate mammalian tissue age with high accuracy (r > 0.96). Age deviations correlate with human mortality risk, mouse somatotropic axis mutations and caloric restriction. We identified specific cytosines with methylation levels that change with age across numerous species. These sites, highly enriched in polycomb repressive complex 2-binding locations, are near genes implicated in mammalian development, cancer, obesity and longevity. Our findings offer new evidence suggesting that aging is evolutionarily conserved and intertwined with developmental processes across all mammals.https://www.nature.com/nataginghj2024Zoology and EntomologySDG-15:Life on lan