The North Atlantic subpolar circulation in an eddy-resolving global ocean model

The subpolar North Atlantic represents a key region for global climate, but most numerical models still have well-described limitations in correctly simulating the local circulation patterns. Here, we present the analysis of a 30-year run with a global eddy-resolving (1/12°) version of the NEMO ocean model. Compared to the 1° and 1/4° equivalent versions, this simulation more realistically represents the shape of the Subpolar Gyre, the position of the North Atlantic Current, and the Gulf Stream separation. Other key improvements are found in the representation of boundary currents, multi-year variability of temperature and depth of winter mixing in the Labrador Sea, and the transport of overflows at the Greenland–Scotland Ridge. However, the salinity, stratification and mean depth of winter mixing in the Labrador Sea, and the density and depth of overflow water south of the sill, still present challenges to the model. This simulation also provides further insight into the spatio-temporal development of the warming event observed in the Subpolar Gyre in the mid 1990s, which appears to coincide with a phase of increased eddy activity in the southernmost part of the gyre. This may have provided a gateway through which heat would have propagated into the gyre's interior

Surface warming hiatus caused by increased heat uptake across multiple ocean basins

The first decade of the twenty-first century was characterised by a hiatus in global surface warming. Using ocean model hindcasts and reanalyses we show that heat uptake between the 1990s and 2000s increased by 0.7 ± 0.3Wm−2. Approximately 30% of the increase is associated with colder sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific. Other basins contribute via reduced heat loss to the atmosphere, in particular the Southern and subtropical Indian Oceans (30%), and the subpolar North Atlantic (40%). A different mechanism is important at longer timescales (1960s-present) over which the Southern Annular Mode trended upwards. In this period, increased ocean heat uptake has largely arisen from reduced heat loss associated with reduced winds over the Agulhas Return Current and southward displacement of Southern Ocean westerlies

Influence of bottom topography on integral constraints in zonal flows with parameterized potential vorticity fluxes

An integral constraint for eddy fluxes of potential vorticity (PV), corresponding to global momentum conservation, is applied to two-layer zonal quasi-geostrophic channel flow. This constraint must be satisfied for any type of parameterization of eddy PV fluxes. Bottom topography strongly influence the integral constraint compared to a flat bottom channel. An analytical solution for the mean flow solution has been found by using asymptotic expansion in a small parameter which is the ratio of the Rossby radius to the meridional extent of the channel. Applying the integral constraint to this solution, one can find restrictions for eddy PV transfer coefficients which relate the eddy fluxes of PV to the mean flow. These restrictions strongly deviate from restrictions for the channel with flat bottom topography

Ocean and atmosphere influence on the 2015 European heatwave

During the summer of 2015, central Europe experienced a major heatwave that was preceded by anomalously cold sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the northern North Atlantic. Recent observation-based studies found a correlation between North Atlantic SST in spring and European summer temperatures, suggesting potential for predictability. Here we show, by using a high-resolution climate model, that ocean temperature anomalies, in combination with matching atmospheric and sea-ice initial conditions were key to the development of the 2015 European heatwave. In a series of 30-member ensemble simulations we test different combinations of ocean temperature and salinity initial states versus non-initialised climatology, mediated in both ensembles by different atmospheric/sea-ice initial conditions, using a non-standard initialisation method without data-assimilation. With the best combination of the initial ocean, and matching atmosphere/sea-ice initial conditions, the ensemble mean temperature response over central Europe in this set-up equals 60% of the observed anomaly, with 6 out of 30 ensemble-members showing similar, or even larger surface air temperature anomalies than observed

Improved estimates of water cycle change from ocean salinity: the key role of ocean warming

Changes in the global water cycle critically impact environmental, agricultural, and energy systems relied upon by humanity (Jiménez Cisneros et al 2014 Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press)). Understanding recent water cycle change is essential in constraining future projections. Warming-induced water cycle change is expected to amplify the pattern of sea surface salinity (Durack et al 2012 Science 336 455–8). A puzzle has, however, emerged. The surface salinity pattern has amplified by 5%–8% since the 1950s (Durack et al 2012 Science 336 455–8, Skliris et al 2014 Clim. Dyn. 43 709–36) while the water cycle is thought to have amplified at close to half that rate (Durack et al 2012 Science 336 455–8, Skliris et al 2016 Sci. Rep. 6 752). This discrepancy is also replicated in climate projections of the 21st century (Durack et al 2012 Science 336 455–8). Using targeted numerical ocean model experiments we find that, while surface water fluxes due to water cycle change and ice mass loss amplify the surface salinity pattern, ocean warming exerts a substantial influence. Warming increases near-surface stratification, inhibiting the decay of existing salinity contrasts and further amplifying surface salinity patterns. Observed ocean warming can explain approximately half of observed surface salinity pattern changes from 1957–2016 with ice mass loss playing a minor role. Water cycle change of 3.6% ± 2.1% per degree Celsius of surface air temperature change is sufficient to explain the remaining observed salinity pattern change

Full-depth temperature trends in the Northeastern Atlantic through the early 21st century

The vertical structure of temperature trends in the northeastern Atlantic (NEA) is investigated from a blend of Argo and hydrography data. The representativeness of sparse hydrography sampling in the basin-mean is assessed using a numerical model. Between 2003 and 2013, the NEA underwent a strong surface cooling (0-450?m) and a significant warming at intermediate and deep levels (1000?m-3000?m) that followed a strong cooling trend observed between 1988 and 2003. During 2003-2013, gyre-specific changes are found in the upper 1000?m (warming and cooling of the subtropical and subpolar gyres, respectively) whilst the intermediate and deep warming primarily occurred in the subpolar gyre, with important contributions from isopycnal heave and water mass property changes. The full-depth temperature change requires a local downward heat flux of 0.53?±?0.06?W?m?2 through the sea-surface, and its vertical distribution highlights the likely important role of the NEA in the recent global warming hiatus

Improving osteoarthritis management in primary healthcare: results from a quasi-experimental study

BACKGROUND: To improve quality of care for patients with hip and knee osteoarthritis (OA), general practitioners (GPs) and physiotherapists (PTs) in a Norwegian municipality initiated an intervention. The intervention aimed to increase provision of core OA treatment (information, exercise, and weight control) prior to referral for surgery, rational use of imaging for assessing OA and improve communication between healthcare professionals. This study assessed the effectiveness of this intervention. METHODS: Forty-eight PTs and one hundred one GPs were invited to the intervention that included two interactive workshops outlining best practice and an accompanying template for PT discharge reports. Using interrupted time series research design, the study period was divided into three: pre-implementation, transition (implementation) and post-implementation. Comparing the change between pre- and post-implementation, the primary outcome was patient-reported quality of OA care measured with the OsteoArthritis Quality Indicator questionnaire. Secondary outcomes were number of PT discharge reports, information included in GP referral letters to orthopaedic surgeon, the proportion of GP referral letters indicating use of core treatment, and the use of imaging within OA assessment. Analyses involved linear mixed and logistic regression models. RESULTS: The PT workshop had 30 attendees, and 31 PTs and 33 GPs attended the multidisciplinary workshop. Two hundred eight and one hundred twenty-five patients completed the questionnaire during pre- and post-implementation, respectively. The adjusted model showed a small, statistically non-significant, increase in mean total score for quality of OA care (mean change = 4.96, 95% CI -0.18, 10.12, p:0.057), which was mainly related to items on OA core treatment. Patients had higher odds of reporting receipt of information on treatment alternatives (odds ratio (OR) 1.9, 95% CI 1.08, 3.24) and on self-management (OR 2.4, 95% CI 1.33, 4.32) in the post-implementation phase. There was a small, statistically non-significant, increase in the proportion of GP referral letters indicating prior use of core treatment modalities. There were negligible changes in the number of PT discharge reports, in the information included in the GP referral letters, and in the use of imaging for OA assessment. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that a primary care intervention including two inter-active workshops can shift the quality of care towards best practice recommendations. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02876120

NEAT: An efficient network enrichment analysis test

Background: Network enrichment analysis is a powerful method, which allows to integrate gene enrichment analysis with the information on relationships between genes that is provided by gene networks. Existing tests for network enrichment analysis deal only with undirected networks, they can be computationally slow and are based on normality assumptions. Results: We propose NEAT, a test for network enrichment analysis. The test is based on the hypergeometric distribution, which naturally arises as the null distribution in this context. NEAT can be applied not only to undirected, but to directed and partially directed networks as well. Our simulations indicate that NEAT is considerably faster than alternative resampling-based methods, and that its capacity to detect enrichments is at least as good as the one of alternative tests. We discuss applications of NEAT to network analyses in yeast by testing for enrichment of the Environmental Stress Response target gene set with GO Slim and KEGG functional gene sets, and also by inspecting associations between functional sets themselves. Conclusions: NEAT is a flexible and efficient test for network enrichment analysis that aims to overcome some limitations of existing resampling-based tests. The method is implemented in the R package neat, which can be freely downloaded from CRAN ( https://cran.r-project.org/package=neat )

Spin‐up of UK Earth System Model 1 (UKESM1) for CMIP6

For simulations intended to study the influence of anthropogenic forcing on climate, temporal stability of the Earth's natural heat, freshwater and biogeochemical budgets is critical. Achieving such coupled model equilibration is scientifically and computationally challenging. We describe the protocol used to spin‐up the UK Earth system model (UKESM1) with respect to pre‐industrial forcing for use in the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Due to the high computational cost of UKESM1's atmospheric model, especially when running with interactive full chemistry and aerosols, spin‐up primarily used parallel configurations using only ocean/land components. For the ocean, the resulting spin‐up permitted the carbon and heat contents of the ocean's full volume to approach equilibrium over ~5000 years. On land, a spin‐up of ~1000 years brought UKESM1's dynamic vegetation and soil carbon reservoirs towards near‐equilibrium. The end‐states of these parallel ocean‐ and land‐only phases then initialised a multi‐centennial period of spin‐up with the full Earth system model, prior to this simulation continuing as the UKESM1 CMIP6 pre‐industrial control (piControl). The realism of the fully‐coupled spin‐up was assessed for a range of ocean and land properties, as was the degree of equilibration for key variables. Lessons drawn include the importance of consistent interface physics across ocean‐ and land‐only models and the coupled (parent) model, the extreme simulation duration required to approach equilibration targets, and the occurrence of significant regional land carbon drifts despite global‐scale equilibration. Overall, the UKESM1 spin‐up underscores the expense involved and argues in favour of future development of more efficient spin‐up techniques