Comparing penalization methods for linear models on large observational health data

Objective: This study evaluates regularization variants in logistic regression (L1, L2, ElasticNet, Adaptive L1, Adaptive ElasticNet, Broken adaptive ridge [BAR], and Iterative hard thresholding [IHT]) for discrimination and calibration performance, focusing on both internal and external validation. Materials and Methods: We use data from 5 US claims and electronic health record databases and develop models for various outcomes in a major depressive disorder patient population. We externally validate all models in the other databases. We use a train-test split of 75%/25% and evaluate performance with discrimination and calibration. Statistical analysis for difference in performance uses Friedman's test and critical difference diagrams. Results: Of the 840 models we develop, L1 and ElasticNet emerge as superior in both internal and external discrimination, with a notable AUC difference. BAR and IHT show the best internal calibration, without a clear external calibration leader. ElasticNet typically has larger model sizes than L1. Methods like IHT and BAR, while slightly less discriminative, significantly reduce model complexity. Conclusion:L1 and ElasticNet offer the best discriminative performance in logistic regression for healthcare predictions, maintaining robustness across validations. For simpler, more interpretable models, L0-based methods (IHT and BAR) are advantageous, providing greater parsimony and calibration with fewer features. This study aids in selecting suitable regularization techniques for healthcare prediction models, balancing performance, complexity, and interpretability.</p

TreatmentPatterns:An R package to facilitate the standardized development and analysis of treatment patterns across disease domains

Background and objectives: There is an increasing interest to use real-world data to illustrate how patients with specific medical conditions are treated in real life. Insight in the current treatment practices helps to improve and tailor patient care, but is often held back by a lack of data interoperability and a high-level of required resources. We aimed to provide an easy tool that overcomes these barriers to support the standardized development and analysis of treatment patterns for a wide variety of medical conditions. Methods: We formally defined the process of constructing treatment pathways and implemented this in an open-source R package TreatmentPatterns (https://github.com/mi-erasmusmc/TreatmentPatterns) to enable a reproducible and timely analysis of treatment patterns. Results: The developed package supports the analysis of treatment patterns of a study population of interest. We demonstrate the functionality of the package by analyzing the treatment patterns of three common chronic diseases (type II diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and depression) in the Dutch Integrated Primary Care Information (IPCI) database. Conclusion: TreatmentPatterns is a tool to make the analysis of treatment patterns more accessible, more standardized, and more interpretation friendly. We hope it thereby contributes to the accumulation of knowledge on real-world treatment patterns across disease domains. We encourage researchers to further adjust and add custom analysis to the R package based on their research needs.</p

Impact of random oversampling and random undersampling on the performance of prediction models developed using observational health data

Background: There is currently no consensus on the impact of class imbalance methods on the performance of clinical prediction models. We aimed to empirically investigate the impact of random oversampling and random undersampling, two commonly used class imbalance methods, on the internal and external validation performance of prediction models developed using observational health data. Methods: We developed and externally validated prediction models for various outcomes of interest within a target population of people with pharmaceutically treated depression across four large observational health databases. We used three different classifiers (lasso logistic regression, random forest, XGBoost) and varied the target imbalance ratio. We evaluated the impact on model performance in terms of discrimination and calibration. Discrimination was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and calibration was assessed using calibration plots. Results: We developed and externally validated a total of 1,566 prediction models. On internal and external validation, random oversampling and random undersampling generally did not result in higher AUROCs. Moreover, we found overestimated risks, although this miscalibration could largely be corrected by recalibrating the models towards the imbalance ratios in the original dataset. Conclusions: Overall, we found that random oversampling or random undersampling generally does not improve the internal and external validation performance of prediction models developed in large observational health databases. Based on our findings, we do not recommend applying random oversampling or random undersampling when developing prediction models in large observational health databases.</p

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Using clinical text to refine unspecific condition codes in Dutch general practitioner EHR data

Objective: Observational studies using electronic health record (EHR) databases often face challenges due to unspecific clinical codes that can obscure detailed medical information, hindering precise data analysis. In this study, we aimed to assess the feasibility of refining these unspecific condition codes into more specific codes in a Dutch general practitioner (GP) EHR database by leveraging the available clinical free text. Methods: We utilized three approaches for text classification—search queries, semi-supervised learning, and supervised learning—to improve the specificity of ten unspecific International Classification of Primary Care (ICPC-1) codes. Two text representations and three machine learning algorithms were evaluated for the (semi-)supervised models. Additionally, we measured the improvement achieved by the refinement process on all code occurrences in the database. Results: The classification models performed well for most codes. In general, no single classification approach consistently outperformed the others. However, there were variations in the relative performance of the classification approaches within each code and in the use of different text representations and machine learning algorithms. Class imbalance and limited training data affected the performance of the (semi-)supervised models, yet the simple search queries remained particularly effective. Ultimately, the developed models improved the specificity of over half of all the unspecific code occurrences in the database. Conclusions: Our findings show the feasibility of using information from clinical text to improve the specificity of unspecific condition codes in observational healthcare databases, even with a limited range of machine-learning techniques and modest annotated training sets. Future work could investigate transfer learning, integration of structured data, alternative semi-supervised methods, and validation of models across healthcare settings. The improved level of detail enriches the interpretation of medical information and can benefit observational research and patient care.</p

Using clinical text to refine unspecific condition codes in Dutch general practitioner EHR data

Objective: Observational studies using electronic health record (EHR) databases often face challenges due to unspecific clinical codes that can obscure detailed medical information, hindering precise data analysis. In this study, we aimed to assess the feasibility of refining these unspecific condition codes into more specific codes in a Dutch general practitioner (GP) EHR database by leveraging the available clinical free text. Methods: We utilized three approaches for text classification—search queries, semi-supervised learning, and supervised learning—to improve the specificity of ten unspecific International Classification of Primary Care (ICPC-1) codes. Two text representations and three machine learning algorithms were evaluated for the (semi-)supervised models. Additionally, we measured the improvement achieved by the refinement process on all code occurrences in the database. Results: The classification models performed well for most codes. In general, no single classification approach consistently outperformed the others. However, there were variations in the relative performance of the classification approaches within each code and in the use of different text representations and machine learning algorithms. Class imbalance and limited training data affected the performance of the (semi-)supervised models, yet the simple search queries remained particularly effective. Ultimately, the developed models improved the specificity of over half of all the unspecific code occurrences in the database. Conclusions: Our findings show the feasibility of using information from clinical text to improve the specificity of unspecific condition codes in observational healthcare databases, even with a limited range of machine-learning techniques and modest annotated training sets. Future work could investigate transfer learning, integration of structured data, alternative semi-supervised methods, and validation of models across healthcare settings. The improved level of detail enriches the interpretation of medical information and can benefit observational research and patient care.</p

Using the data quality dashboard to improve the ehden network

Federated networks of observational health databases have the potential to be a rich resource to inform clinical practice and regulatory decision making. However, the lack of standard data quality processes makes it difficult to know if these data are research ready. The EHDEN COVID-19 Rapid Collaboration Call presented the opportunity to assess how the newly developed open-source tool Data Quality Dashboard (DQD) informs the quality of data in a federated network. Fifteen Data Partners (DPs) from 10 different countries worked with the EHDEN taskforce to map their data to the OMOP CDM. Throughout the process at least two DQD results were collected and compared for each DP. All DPs showed an improvement in their data quality between the first and last run of the DQD. The DQD excelled at helping DPs identify and fix conformance issues but showed less of an impact on completeness and plausibility checks. This is the first study to apply the DQD on multiple, disparate databases across a network. While study-specific checks should still be run, we recommend that all data holders converting their data to the OMOP CDM use the DQD as it ensures conformance to the model specifications and that a database meets a baseline level of completeness and plausibility for use in research.</p

Electrocardiographic Criteria for Left Ventricular Hypertrophy in Children

Previous studies to determine the sensitivity of the electrocardiogram (ECG) for left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) in children had their imperfections: they were not done on an unselected hospital population, several criteria used in adults were not applied to children, and obsolete limits of normal for the ECG parameters were used. Furthermore, left ventricular mass (LVM) was taken as the reference standard for LVH, with no regard for other clinical evidence. The study population consisted of 832 children from whom a 12-lead ECG and an M-mode echocardiogram were taken on the same day. The validity of the ECG criteria was judged on the basis of an abnormal LVM index, either alone or in combination with other clinical evidence. The ECG criteria were based on recently established age-dependent normal limits. At 95% specificity, the ECG criteria have low sensitivities (<25%) when an elevated LVM index is taken as the reference for LVH. When clinical evidence is also taken into account, the sensitivity improved considerably (<43%). Sensitivities could be further improved when ECG parameters were combined. The sensitivity of the pediatric ECG in detecting LVH is low but depends strongly on the definition of the reference used for validation

Trends in the conduct and reporting of clinical prediction model development and validation: a systematic review

OBJECTIVES: This systematic review aims to provide further insights into the conduct and reporting of clinical prediction model development and validation over time. We focus on assessing the reporting of information necessary to enable external validation by other investigators.MATERIALS AND METHODS: We searched Embase, Medline, Web-of-Science, Cochrane Library, and Google Scholar to identify studies that developed 1 or more multivariable prognostic prediction models using electronic health record (EHR) data published in the period 2009-2019.RESULTS: We identified 422 studies that developed a total of 579 clinical prediction models using EHR data. We observed a steep increase over the years in the number of developed models. The percentage of models externally validated in the same paper remained at around 10%. Throughout 2009-2019, for both the target population and the outcome definitions, code lists were provided for less than 20% of the models. For about half of the models that were developed using regression analysis, the final model was not completely presented.DISCUSSION: Overall, we observed limited improvement over time in the conduct and reporting of clinical prediction model development and validation. In particular, the prediction problem definition was often not clearly reported, and the final model was often not completely presented.CONCLUSION: Improvement in the reporting of information necessary to enable external validation by other investigators is still urgently needed to increase clinical adoption of developed models.</p

A standardized framework for risk-based assessment of treatment effect heterogeneity in observational healthcare databases

Treatment effects are often anticipated to vary across groups of patients with different baseline risk. The Predictive Approaches to Treatment Effect Heterogeneity (PATH) statement focused on baseline risk as a robust predictor of treatment effect and provided guidance on risk-based assessment of treatment effect heterogeneity in a randomized controlled trial. The aim of this study is to extend this approach to the observational setting using a standardized scalable framework. The proposed framework consists of five steps: (1) definition of the research aim, i.e., the population, the treatment, the comparator and the outcome(s) of interest; (2) identification of relevant databases; (3) development of a prediction model for the outcome(s) of interest; (4) estimation of relative and absolute treatment effect within strata of predicted risk, after adjusting for observed confounding; (5) presentation of the results. We demonstrate our framework by evaluating heterogeneity of the effect of thiazide or thiazide-like diuretics versus angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors on three efficacy and nine safety outcomes across three observational databases. We provide a publicly available R software package for applying this framework to any database mapped to the Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership Common Data Model. In our demonstration, patients at low risk of acute myocardial infarction receive negligible absolute benefits for all three efficacy outcomes, though they are more pronounced in the highest risk group, especially for acute myocardial infarction. Our framework allows for the evaluation of differential treatment effects across risk strata, which offers the opportunity to consider the benefit-harm trade-off between alternative treatments.Development and application of statistical models for medical scientific researc