Recent Contributions of Theory to Our Understanding of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Revolutionary observational arrays, together with a new generation of ocean and climate models, have provided new and intriguing insights into the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) over the last two decades. Theoretical models have also changed our view of the AMOC, providing a dynamical framework for understanding the new observations and the results of complex models. In this paper we review recent advances in conceptual understanding of the processes maintaining the AMOC. We discuss recent theoretical models that address issues such as the interplay between surface buoyancy and wind forcing, the extent to which the AMOC is adiabatic, the importance of mesoscale eddies, the interaction between the middepth North Atlantic Deep Water cell and the abyssal Antarctic Bottom Water cell, the role of basin geometry and bathymetry, and the importance of a three‐dimensional multiple‐basin perspective. We review new paradigms for deep water formation in the high‐latitude North Atlantic and the impact of diapycnal mixing on vertical motion in the ocean interior. And we discuss advances in our understanding of the AMOC's stability and its scaling with large‐scale meridional density gradients. Along with reviewing theories for the mean AMOC, we consider models of AMOC variability and discuss what we have learned from theory about the detection and meridional propagation of AMOC anomalies. Simple theoretical models remain a vital and powerful tool for articulating our understanding of the AMOC and identifying the processes that are most critical to represent accurately in the next generation of numerical ocean and climate models

Recent contributions of theory to our understanding of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

© The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Johnson, H. L., Cessi, P., Marshall, D. P., Schloesser, F., & Spall, M. A. Recent contributions of theory to our understanding of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans, 124(8), (2019): 5376-5399, doi: 10.1029/2019JC015330.Revolutionary observational arrays, together with a new generation of ocean and climate models, have provided new and intriguing insights into the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) over the last two decades. Theoretical models have also changed our view of the AMOC, providing a dynamical framework for understanding the new observations and the results of complex models. In this paper we review recent advances in conceptual understanding of the processes maintaining the AMOC. We discuss recent theoretical models that address issues such as the interplay between surface buoyancy and wind forcing, the extent to which the AMOC is adiabatic, the importance of mesoscale eddies, the interaction between the middepth North Atlantic Deep Water cell and the abyssal Antarctic Bottom Water cell, the role of basin geometry and bathymetry, and the importance of a three‐dimensional multiple‐basin perspective. We review new paradigms for deep water formation in the high‐latitude North Atlantic and the impact of diapycnal mixing on vertical motion in the ocean interior. And we discuss advances in our understanding of the AMOC's stability and its scaling with large‐scale meridional density gradients. Along with reviewing theories for the mean AMOC, we consider models of AMOC variability and discuss what we have learned from theory about the detection and meridional propagation of AMOC anomalies. Simple theoretical models remain a vital and powerful tool for articulating our understanding of the AMOC and identifying the processes that are most critical to represent accurately in the next generation of numerical ocean and climate models.H. L. J. and D. P. M. are grateful for funding from the U.K. Natural Environment Research Council under the UK‐OSNAP project (NE/K010948/1). P. C. gratefully acknowledges support by the National Science Foundation through OCE‐1634128. M. A. S. was supported by the National Science Foundation Grants OCE‐1558742 and OCE‐1634468. We are also grateful to Eli Tziperman and an anonymous reviewer whose comments helped us to improve the manuscript. The Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean state estimate (ECCO version 4 release 3) used to produce Figure 2 is available online (https://ecco.jpl.nasa.gov). Please refer to the original papers reviewed here for access to any other data discussed

Data Availability Principles and Practice

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Dynamics of downwelling in an eddy-resolving convective basin

Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2010. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 40 (2010): 2341–2347, doi:10.1175/2010JPO4465.1.The mean downwelling in an eddy-resolving model of a convective basin is concentrated near the boundary where eddies are shed from the cyclonic boundary current into the interior. It is suggested that the buoyancy-forced downwelling in the Labrador Sea and the Lofoten Basin is similarly concentrated in analogous eddy formation regions along their eastern boundaries. Use of a transformed Eulerian mean depiction of the density transport reveals the central role eddy fluxes play in maintaining the adiabatic nature of the flow in a nonperiodic region where heat is lost from the boundary current. The vorticity balance in the downwelling region is primarily between stretching of planetary vorticity and eddy flux divergence of relative vorticity, although a narrow viscous boundary layer is ultimately important in closing the regional vorticity budget. This overall balance is similar in some ways to the diffusive–viscous balance represented in previous boundary layer theories, and suggests that the downwelling in convective basins may be properly represented in low-resolution climate models if eddy flux parameterizations are adiabatic, identify localized regions of eddy formations, and allow density to be transported far from the region of eddy formations.This study was supported by the National Science Foundation under Grants OCE-0726339 and OCE-0850416

Destabilization of the thermohaline circulation by transient perturbations to the hydrological cycle

We reconsider the problem of the stability of the thermohaline circulation as described by a two-dimensional Boussinesq model with mixed boundary conditions. We determine how the stability properties of the system depend on the intensity of the hydrological cycle. We define a two-dimensional parameters' space descriptive of the hydrology of the system and determine, by considering suitable quasi-static perturbations, a bounded region where multiple equilibria of the system are realized. We then focus on how the response of the system to finite-amplitude surface freshwater forcings depends on their rate of increase. We show that it is possible to define a robust separation between slow and fast regimes of forcing. Such separation is obtained by singling out an estimate of the critical growth rate for the anomalous forcing, which can be related to the characteristic advective time scale of the system.Comment: 37 pages, 8 figures, submitted to Clim. Dy

A mathematical framework for critical transitions: normal forms, variance and applications

Critical transitions occur in a wide variety of applications including mathematical biology, climate change, human physiology and economics. Therefore it is highly desirable to find early-warning signs. We show that it is possible to classify critical transitions by using bifurcation theory and normal forms in the singular limit. Based on this elementary classification, we analyze stochastic fluctuations and calculate scaling laws of the variance of stochastic sample paths near critical transitions for fast subsystem bifurcations up to codimension two. The theory is applied to several models: the Stommel-Cessi box model for the thermohaline circulation from geoscience, an epidemic-spreading model on an adaptive network, an activator-inhibitor switch from systems biology, a predator-prey system from ecology and to the Euler buckling problem from classical mechanics. For the Stommel-Cessi model we compare different detrending techniques to calculate early-warning signs. In the epidemics model we show that link densities could be better variables for prediction than population densities. The activator-inhibitor switch demonstrates effects in three time-scale systems and points out that excitable cells and molecular units have information for subthreshold prediction. In the predator-prey model explosive population growth near a codimension two bifurcation is investigated and we show that early-warnings from normal forms can be misleading in this context. In the biomechanical model we demonstrate that early-warning signs for buckling depend crucially on the control strategy near the instability which illustrates the effect of multiplicative noise.Comment: minor corrections to previous versio

Abrupt transitions and hysteresis in thermohaline laboratory models

Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2009. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 39 (2009): 1231-1243, doi:10.1175/2008JPO4087.1.As a driving parameter is slowly altered, thermohaline ocean circulation models show either a smooth evolution of a mode of flow or an abrupt transition of temperature and salinity fields from one mode to another. An abrupt transition might occur at one value or over a range of the driving parameter. The latter has hysteresis because the mode in this range depends on the history of the driving parameter. Although assorted ocean circulation models exhibit abrupt transitions, such transitions have not been directly observed in the ocean. Therefore, laboratory experiments have been conducted to seek and observe actual (physical) abrupt thermohaline transitions. An experiment closely duplicating Stommel’s box model possessed abrupt transitions in temperature and salinity with distinct hysteresis. Two subsequent experiments with more latitude for internal circulation in the containers possessed abrupt transitions over a much smaller range of hysteresis. Therefore, a new experiment with even more latitude for internal circulation was designed and conducted. A large tank of constantly renewed freshwater at room temperature had a smaller cavity in the bottom heated from below with saltwater steadily pumped in. The cavity had either a salt mode, consisting of the cavity filled with heated salty water with an interface at the cavity top, or a temperature mode, in which the heat and saltwater were removed from the cavity by convection. There was no measurable hysteresis between the two modes. Possible reasons for such small hysteresis are discussed.Support is gratefully acknowledged from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Climate Change Institute, the National Science Foundation, Physical Oceanography Section under Grant OCE-0081179, and the Paul M. Fye Chair of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

The turbulent oscillator : a mechanism of low-frequency variability of the wind-driven ocean gyres

Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2007. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography. 37 (2007): 2363-2386, doi:10.1175/jpo3118.1.Intrinsic low-frequency variability is studied in the idealized, quasigeostrophic, midlatitude, wind-driven ocean gyres operating at large Reynolds number. A robust decadal variability mode driven by the transient mesoscale eddies is found and analyzed. The variability is a turbulent phenomenon, which is driven by the competition between the eddy rectification process and the potential vorticity anomalies induced by changes of the intergyre transportFunding for Pavel Berloff was provided by NSF Grants OCE-0091836 and OCE- 0344094, by the U.K. Royal Society Fellowship, and by the Newton Trust Award, A. M. Hogg was supported by an Australian Research Council Postdoctoral Fellowship (DP0449851) during this work, and William K. Dewar was supported by NSF Grants OCE-0424227 and OCE-0550139

Mechanisms for millennial-scale global synchronization during the last glacial period

Global climate during the last glacial period was punctuated by abrupt warmings and occasional pulses of freshwater into the North Atlantic that disrupted deepwater production. These massive freshwater pulses known as Heinrich events arose, in part, from instabilities within the Laurentide ice sheet. Paleoevidence from the North Atlantic suggests that these events altered the production of deep water and changed downstream climate throughout the Northern Hemisphere. In the tropical western Pacific sea, surface temperatures and salinity varied together with ocean and climate changes at high latitudes. Here we present results from coupled modeling experiments that shed light on a possible dynamical link between the North Atlantic Ocean and the western tropical Pacific. This link involves a global oceanic standing wave pattern brought about by millennial-scale glacial density variations in the North Atlantic, atmospheric teleconnections triggered by meridional sea surface temperature gradients, and local air-sea interactions. Furthermore, our modeling results are compared with hydrological records from the Cariaco basin, the Indian Ocean, the Sulu Sea, and northern Australia

SDS-PAGE-Based Quantitative Assay for Screening of Kidney Stone Disease

Kidney stone disease is a common health problem in industrialised nations. We developed a SDS-PAGE-based method to quantify Tamm Horsfall glycoprotein (THP) for screening of kidney stone disease. Urinary proteins were extracted by using ammonium sulphate precipitation at 0.27 g salt/mL urine. The resulted pellet was dissolved in TSE buffer. Ten microliters of the urinary proteins extract was loaded and separated on 10% SDS-PAGE under reducing condition. THP migrated as single band in SDS-PAGE. The assay reproducibility and repeatability were 4.8% CV and 2.6% CV, respectively. A total of 117 healthy subjects and 58 stone patients were tested using this assay, and a distinct cut-off (P < 0.05) at 5.6 μg/mL THP concentration was used to distinguish stone patients from healthy subjects. The sensitivity and specificity of the method were 92.3% and 83.3%, respectively