Synchronicity of historical dry spells in the Southern Hemisphere

A shift in climate occurred during the mid-1970s that affected the hydroclimate of the Southern Hemisphere resulting in drying trends across continental regions including Australia, New Zealand and southern and western Africa. There is also anecdotal evidence of other periods of climatic synchronicity in the Southern Hemisphere (e.g., the 1920s and 1940s), indicating that the mid-1970s event may not be anomalous. This paper identifies periods within the last ~120 years using statistical analysis where dry spells (in terms of annual to multi-decadal rainfall deficiencies) have coincided across the continental Southern Hemisphere in order to characterize temporal consistency. It is shown that synchronicity of dry spells is (a) most likely common over the last 120 years and (b) associated with changes in the large-scale climate modes of the Pacific, Indian and Southern Oceans. Importantly, the findings presented in this paper have marked implications for drought management and drought forecasting studies in the Southern Hemisphere

Active control of wake/blade-row interaction noise through the use of blade surface actuators

A combined analytical/computational approach for controlling of the noise generated by wake/blade-row interaction through the use of anti-sound actuators on the blade surfaces is described. A representative two-dimensional section of a fan stage, composed of an upstream fan rotor and a downstream fan exit guide vane (FEGV), is examined. An existing model for the wakes generated by the rotor is analyzed to provide realistic magnitudes for the vortical excitations imposed at the inlet to the FEGV. The acoustic response of the FEGV is determined at multiples of the blade passing frequency (BPF) by using the linearized unsteady flow analysis, LINFLO. Acoustic field contours are presented at each multiple of BPF illustrating the generated acoustic response disturbances. Anti-sound is then provided by placing oscillating control surfaces, whose lengths and locations are specified arbitrarily, on the blades. An analysis is then conducted to determine the complex amplitudes required for the control surface motions to best reduce the noise. It is demonstrated that if the number of acoustic response modes to be controlled is equal to the number of available independent control surfaces, complete noise cancellation can be achieved. A weighted least squares minimization procedure for the control equations is given for cases in which the number of acoustic modes exceeds the number of available control surfaces. The effectiveness of the control is measured by the magnitude of a propagating acoustic response vector, which is related to the circumferentially averaged sound pressure level (SPL), and is minimized by a standard least-squares minimization procedure

Links between the Big Dry in Australia and hemispheric multi-decadal climate variability – implications for water resource management

Southeast Australia (SEA) experienced a protracted drought during the mid-1990s until early 2010 (known as the Big Dry or Millennium Drought) that resulted in serious environmental, social and economic effects. This paper analyses a range of historical climate data sets to place the recent drought into context in terms of Southern Hemisphere inter-annual to multi-decadal hydroclimatic variability. The findings indicate that the recent Big Dry in SEA is in fact linked to the widespread Southern Hemisphere climate shift towards drier conditions that began in the mid-1970s. However, it is shown that this link is masked because the large-scale climate drivers responsible for drying in other regions of the mid-latitudes since the mid-1970s did not have the same effect on SEA during the mid- to late 1980s and early 1990s. More specifically, smaller-scale synoptic processes resulted in elevated autumn and winter rainfall (a crucial period for SEA hydrology) during the mid- to late 1980s and early 1990s, which punctuated the longer-term drying. From the mid-1990s to 2010 the frequency of the synoptic processes associated with elevated autumn/winter rainfall decreased, resulting in a return to drier than average conditions and the onset of the Big Dry. The findings presented in this paper have marked implications for water management and climate attribution studies in SEA, in particular for understanding and dealing with "baseline" (i.e. current) hydroclimatic risks

Climate-informed stochastic hydrological modeling: Incorporating decadal-scale variability using paleo data

A hierarchical framework for incorporating modes of climate variability into stochastic simulations of hydrological data is developed, termed the climate-informed multi-time scale stochastic (CIMSS) framework. A case study on two catchments in eastern Australia illustrates this framework. To develop an identifiable model characterizing long-term variability for the first level of the hierarchy, paleoclimate proxies, and instrumental indices describing the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are analyzed. A new paleo IPO-PDO time series dating back 440 yr is produced, combining seven IPO-PDO paleo sources using an objective smoothing procedure to fit low-pass filters to individual records. The paleo data analysis indicates that wet/dry IPO-PDO states have a broad range of run lengths, with 90% between 3 and 33 yr and a mean of 15 yr. The Markov chain model, previously used to simulate oscillating wet/dry climate states, is found to underestimate the probability of wet/dry periods >5 yr, and is rejected in favor of a gamma distribution for simulating the run lengths of the wet/dry IPO-PDO states. For the second level of the hierarchy, a seasonal rainfall model is conditioned on the simulated IPO-PDO state. The model is able to replicate observed statistics such as seasonal and multiyear accumulated rainfall distributions and interannual autocorrelations. Mean seasonal rainfall in the IPO-PDO dry states is found to be 15%-28% lower than the wet state at the case study sites. In comparison, an annual lag-one autoregressive model is unable to adequately capture the observed rainfall distribution within separate IPO-PDO states. Copyright © 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.Benjamin J. Henley, Mark A. Thyer, George Kuczera and Stewart W. Frank

Climate-informed stochastic hydrological modeling: Incorporating decadal-scale variability using paleo data

A hierarchical framework for incorporating modes of climate variability into stochastic simulations of hydrological data is developed, termed the climate-informed multi-time scale stochastic (CIMSS) framework. A case study on two catchments in eastern Australia illustrates this framework. To develop an identifiable model characterizing long-term variability for the first level of the hierarchy, paleoclimate proxies, and instrumental indices describing the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are analyzed. A new paleo IPO-PDO time series dating back 440 yr is produced, combining seven IPO-PDO paleo sources using an objective smoothing procedure to fit low-pass filters to individual records. The paleo data analysis indicates that wet/dry IPO-PDO states have a broad range of run lengths, with 90% between 3 and 33 yr and a mean of 15 yr. The Markov chain model, previously used to simulate oscillating wet/dry climate states, is found to underestimate the probability of wet/dry periods >5 yr, and is rejected in favor of a gamma distribution for simulating the run lengths of the wet/dry IPO-PDO states. For the second level of the hierarchy, a seasonal rainfall model is conditioned on the simulated IPO-PDO state. The model is able to replicate observed statistics such as seasonal and multiyear accumulated rainfall distributions and interannual autocorrelations. Mean seasonal rainfall in the IPO-PDO dry states is found to be 15%-28% lower than the wet state at the case study sites. In comparison, an annual lag-one autoregressive model is unable to adequately capture the observed rainfall distribution within separate IPO-PDO states. Copyright © 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.Benjamin J. Henley, Mark A. Thyer, George Kuczera and Stewart W. Frank

Development of a linearized unsteady Euler analysis for turbomachinery blade rows

A linearized unsteady aerodynamic analysis for axial-flow turbomachinery blading is described in this report. The linearization is based on the Euler equations of fluid motion and is motivated by the need for an efficient aerodynamic analysis that can be used in predicting the aeroelastic and aeroacoustic responses of blade rows. The field equations and surface conditions required for inviscid, nonlinear and linearized, unsteady aerodynamic analyses of three-dimensional flow through a single, blade row operating within a cylindrical duct, are derived. An existing numerical algorithm for determining time-accurate solutions of the nonlinear unsteady flow problem is described, and a numerical model, based upon this nonlinear flow solver, is formulated for the first-harmonic linear unsteady problem. The linearized aerodynamic and numerical models have been implemented into a first-harmonic unsteady flow code, called LINFLUX. At present this code applies only to two-dimensional flows, but an extension to three-dimensions is planned as future work. The three-dimensional aerodynamic and numerical formulations are described in this report. Numerical results for two-dimensional unsteady cascade flows, excited by prescribed blade motions and prescribed aerodynamic disturbances at inlet and exit, are also provided to illustrate the present capabilities of the LINFLUX analysis

Tropical cyclone perceptions, impacts and adaptation in the Southwest Pacific: an urban perspective from Fiji, Vanuatu and Tonga

The destruction caused by tropical cyclone (TC) Pam in March 2015 is considered one of the worst natural disasters in the history of Vanuatu. It has highlighted the need for a better understanding of TC impacts and adaptation in the Southwest Pacific (SWP) region. Therefore, the key aims of this study are to (i) understand local perceptions of TC activity, (ii) investigate impacts of TC activity and (iii) uncover adaptation strategies used to offset the impacts of TCs. To address these aims, a survey (with 130 participants from urban areas) was conducted across three SWP small island states (SISs): Fiji, Vanuatu and Tonga (FVT). It was found that respondents generally had a high level of risk perception and awareness of TCs and the associated physical impacts, but lacked an understanding of the underlying weather conditions. Responses highlighted that current methods of adaptation generally occur at the local level, immediately prior to a TC event (preparation of property, gathering of food, finding a safe place to shelter). However higher level adaptation measures (such as the modification to building structures) may reduce vulnerability further. Finally, we discuss the potential of utilising weather-related traditional knowledge and non-traditional knowledge of empirical and climate-model-based weather forecasts to improve TC outlooks, which would ultimately reduce vulnerability and increase adaptive capacity. Importantly, lessons learned from this study may result in the modification and/or development of existing adaptation strategies

Rotavirus NSP4 is secreted from infected cells as an oligomeric lipoprotein and binds to glycosaminoglycans on the surface of non-infected cells

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Nonstructural glycoprotein 4 (NSP4) encoded by rotavirus is the only viral protein currently believed to function as an enterotoxin. NSP4 is synthesized as an intracellular transmembrane glycoprotein and as such is essential for virus assembly. Infection of polarized Caco-2 cells with rotavirus also results in the secretion of glycosylated NSP4 apparently in a soluble form despite retention of its transmembrane domain. We have examined the structure, solubility and cell-binding properties of this secreted form of NSP4 to further understand the biochemical basis for its enterotoxic function. We show here that NSP4 is secreted as discrete detergent-sensitive oligomers in a complex with phospholipids and demonstrate that this secreted form of NSP4 can bind to glycosaminoglycans present on the surface of a range of different cell types.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>NSP4 was purified from the medium of infected cells after ultracentrifugation and ultrafiltration by successive lectin-affinity and ion exchange chromatography. Oligomerisation of NSP4 was examined by density gradient centrifugation and chemical crosslinking and the lipid content was assessed by analytical thin layer chromatography and flame ionization detection. Binding of NSP4 to various cell lines was measured using a flow cytometric-based assay.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Secreted NSP4 formed oligomers that contained phospholipid but dissociated to a dimeric species in the presence of non-ionic detergent. The purified glycoprotein binds to the surface of various non-infected cells of distinct lineage. Binding of NSP4 to HT-29, a cell line of intestinal origin, is saturable and independent of divalent cations. Complementary biochemical approaches reveal that NSP4 binds to sulfated glycosaminoglycans on the plasma membrane.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our study is the first to analyze an authentic (i.e. non-recombinant) form of NSP4 that is secreted from virus-infected cells. Despite retention of the transmembrane domain, secreted NSP4 remains soluble in an aqueous environment as an oligomeric lipoprotein that can bind to various cell types via an interaction with glycosaminoglycans. This broad cellular tropism exhibited by NSP4 may have implications for the pathophysiology of rotavirus disease.</p