La prévision des précipitations par recherche d'analogues : état de l'art et perspectives

La prévision des précipitations par analogie, adaptée des sorties de modèles numériques de prévision, s'est améliorée ces dix dernières années et est actuellement implémentée opérationnellement dans diverses infrastructures françaises. Le premier objectif de cette étude est de dresser l'état de l'art de cette approche. L'application de cette méthode nécessite une base de données contenant les champs des variables qui permettent de caractériser les situations météorologiques passées. Etant donné qu'il existe deux archives de génération différente (réanalyses ERA-40 et NCEP/NCAR), la sensibilité de cette méthode de prévision au choix de l'archive a été étudiée. Les résultats révèlent une faible sensibilité, même si de manière générale les performances sont légèrement supérieures avec l'archive ERA-40, notamment pour les événements pluvieux extrêmes. Enfin, des perspectives d'amélioration de la méthode susceptibles d'être exploitées à court terme sont évoquées. / Precipitation forecasting based on an adaptation of model outputs through an analog sorting technique has been improved for around ten years. The method runs operationally in several French institutions. First, this short paper presents the state of the art of this approach and the more recent developments. Second, a sensitivity analysis to the choice of the database from which the variables that characterise the past meteorological situations are extracted is performed. Two available archives are tested (ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR re-analyses). The results show that despite the performances obtained with the ERA-40 database are slightly better, especially for heavy rainfall events, the sensitivity is weak. Finally, further ways for improvement that could be investigated are suggested

Reconstruction d'ensemble des événements spatio-temporels d'étiage extrême en France depuis 1871

International audienceThe length of streamflow observations is generally limited to the last 50 years even in data-rich countries like France. It therefore offers too small a sample of extreme low-flow events to properly explore the long-term evolution of their characteristics and associated impacts. To overcome this limit, this work first presents a daily 140-year ensemble reconstructed streamflow dataset for a reference network of near-natural catchments in France. This dataset, called SCOPE Hydro (Spatially COherent Probabilistic Extended Hydrological dataset), is based on (1) a probabilistic precipitation, temperature, and reference evapotranspiration downscaling of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis over France, called SCOPE Climate, and (2) continuous hydrological modelling using SCOPE Climate as forcings over the whole period. This work then introduces tools for defining spatio-temporal extreme low-flow events. Extreme low-flow events are first locally defined through the sequent peak algorithm using a novel combination of a fixed threshold and a daily variable threshold. A dedicated spatial matching procedure is then established to identify spatio-temporal events across France. This procedure is furthermore adapted to the SCOPE Hydro 25-member ensemble to characterize in a probabilistic way unrecorded historical events at the national scale. Extreme low-flow events are described and compared in a spatially and temporally homogeneous way over 140 years on a large set of catchments. Results highlight well-known recent events like 1976 or 1989-1990, but also older and relatively forgotten ones like the 1878 and 1893 events. These results contribute to improving our knowledge of historical events and provide a selection of benchmark events for climate change adaptation purposes. Moreover, this study allows for further detailed analyses of the effect of climate variability and anthropogenic climate change on low-flow hydrology at the scale of France

Precipitation forecasting through an analog sorting technique: a comparative study

This study aims at comparing two quantitative precipitation forecasting techniques based on the meteorological analogy concept. Method A considers first a selection of analogous situations at synoptic scale. Second a subset of the most similar situations in terms of hygrometry is extracted. Method B extends method A by two innovative ways, which are restricting the search for analogues with temperature information instead of the common season criterion, and exploiting the information about vertical motion considering vertical velocity. Forecasts are evaluated in a perfect prognosis context and in operational conditions as well, by mean of verification measures (Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score and scores computed from contingency tables). Results of the case study in France show that: (1) there is an increase in forecast skill when temperature and vertical velocity are included in the procedure, (2) it is possible to anticipate rainfall events up to one week ahead and (3) the introduction of new variables such as vertical velocity may be useless beyond few days ahead if the forecast of the weather model is not reliable

The role of the ecological fiscal transfers for water conservation policies

The purpose of this chapter is to fill the lacuna found in the literature with regard to describing the role of EFTs for water conservation policies. The literature tells us that ecological fiscal transfers (EFTs) are analysed so to pursue biodiversity conservation policies and solid waste management (SWM). For biodiversity conservation policies, EFTs have two purposes: (1) to incentivize municipalities to create local protected areas (PA); and (2) to compensate municipalities for corresponding land-use restrictions. In the case of SWM, the main idea is that, even considering the fees paid by the households, it is still costly to maintain waste services in the municipal territories. In this context, EFTs are appealing policy instrument to help local governments create landfills or composting plants. However, in Brazil EFTs are functioning as a policy instrument which also includes a wide range of policy domains, such as water conservation, indigenous land, fire-control, and so on. Six states adopted EFTs specifically for water conservation policies: Goiás, Paraná, Pernambuco, Piauí, Rio de Janeiro, and Tocantins. Descriptive analyses, focusing on legislative differences are conducted for each of these states.(undefined

Open Science principles for accelerating trait-based science across the Tree of Life.

Synthesizing trait observations and knowledge across the Tree of Life remains a grand challenge for biodiversity science. Species traits are widely used in ecological and evolutionary science, and new data and methods have proliferated rapidly. Yet accessing and integrating disparate data sources remains a considerable challenge, slowing progress toward a global synthesis to integrate trait data across organisms. Trait science needs a vision for achieving global integration across all organisms. Here, we outline how the adoption of key Open Science principles-open data, open source and open methods-is transforming trait science, increasing transparency, democratizing access and accelerating global synthesis. To enhance widespread adoption of these principles, we introduce the Open Traits Network (OTN), a global, decentralized community welcoming all researchers and institutions pursuing the collaborative goal of standardizing and integrating trait data across organisms. We demonstrate how adherence to Open Science principles is key to the OTN community and outline five activities that can accelerate the synthesis of trait data across the Tree of Life, thereby facilitating rapid advances to address scientific inquiries and environmental issues. Lessons learned along the path to a global synthesis of trait data will provide a framework for addressing similarly complex data science and informatics challenges

The Elbow-EpiTrainer : A method of delivering graded resistance to the extensor carpi radialis brevis. Effectiveness of a prototype device in a healthy population

This document is the Accepted Manuscript version of the following article: Navsaria R, Ryder DM, Lewis JS, et al, 'The Elbow-EpiTrainer: a method of delivering graded resistance to the extensor carpi radialis brevi:. Effectiveness of a prototype device in a healthy population', British Journal of Sports Medicine, Vol. 49(5):318-322, March 2015, available online at: http://bjsm.bmj.com/content/49/5/318. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited.Background: Tennis elbow or lateral epicondylopathy (LE) is experienced as the lateral elbow has a reported prevalence of 1.3%, with symptoms lasting up to 18 months. LE is most commonly attributed to tendinopathy involving the extensor carpi radialis brevis (ECRB) tendon. The aim of tendinopathy management is to alleviate symptoms and restore function that initially involves relative rest followed by progressive therapeutic exercise. Objective: To assess the effectiveness of two prototype exercises using commonly available clinical equipment to progressively increase resistance and activity of the ECRB. Method: Eighteen healthy participants undertook two exercise progressions. Surface electromyography was used to record ECRB activity during the two progressions, involving eccentric exercises of the wrist extensors and elbow pronation exercises using a prototype device. The two progressions were assessed for their linearity of progression using repeated ANOVA and linear regression analysis. Five participants repeated the study to assess reliability. Results: The exercise progressions led to an increase in ECRB electromyographic (EMG) activity (p0.7) between the first and second tests for five participants. Conclusions: Manipulation of resistance and leverage with the prototype exercises was effective in creating significant increases of ECRB normalised EMG activity in a linear manner that may, with future research, become useful to clinicians treating LE. In addition, between trial reliability for the device to generate a consistent load was acceptable.Peer reviewe

Science and Management of Intermittent Rivers and Ephemeral Streams (SMIRES)

More than half of the global river network is composed of intermittent rivers and ephemeral streams (IRES), which are expanding in response to climate change and increasing water demands. After years of obscurity, the science of IRES has bloomed recently and it is being recognised that IRES support a unique and high biodiversity, provide essential ecosystem services and are functionally part of river networks and groundwater systems. However, they still lack protective and adequate management, thereby jeopardizing water resources at the global scale. This Action brings together hydrologists, biogeochemists, ecologists, modellers, environmental economists, social researchers and stakeholders from 14 different countries to develop a research network for synthesising the fragmented, recent knowledge on IRES, improving our understanding of IRES and translating this into a science-based, sustainable management of river networks. Deliverables will be provided through i) research workshops synthesising and addressing key challenges in IRES science, supporting research exchange and educating young researchers, and ii) researcher-stakeholder workshops translating improved knowledge into tangible tools and guidelines for protecting IRES and raising awareness of their importance and value in societal and decision-maker spheres. This Action is organized within six Working Groups to address: (i) the occurrence, distribution and hydrological trends of IRES; (ii) the effects of flow alterations on IRES functions and services; (iii) the interaction of aquatic and terrestrial biogeochemical processes at catchment scale; (iv) the biomonitoring of the ecological status of IRES; (v) synergies in IRES research at the European scale, data assemblage and sharing; (vi) IRES management and advocacy training

Understanding Flood Regime Changes in Europe: a state-of-the-art assessment

There is growing concern that flooding is becoming more frequent and severe in Europe. A better understanding of flood regime changes and their drivers is therefore needed. The paper reviews the current knowledge on flood regime changes in European rivers that has traditionally been obtained through two alternative research approaches. The first approach is the data-based detection of changes in observed flood events. Current methods are reviewed together with their challenges and opportunities. For example, observation biases, the merging of different data sources and accounting for nonlinear drivers and responses. The second approach consists of modelled scenarios of future floods. Challenges and opportunities associated with flood change scenarios are discussed such as fully accounting for uncertainties in the modelling cascade and feedbacks. To make progress in flood change research, we suggest that a synthesis of these two approaches is needed. This can be achieved by focusing on long duration records and flood-rich and flood-poor periods rather than on short duration flood trends only, by formally attributing causes of observed flood changes, by validating scenarios against observed flood regime dynamics, and by developing low-dimensional models of flood changes and feedbacks. The paper finishes with a call for a joint European flood change research network