Improvement in the decadal prediction skill of the North Atlantic extratropical winter circulation through increased model resolution

In this study the latest version of the MiKlip decadal hindcast system is analyzed, and the effect of an increased horizontal and vertical resolution on the prediction skill of the extratropical winter circulation is assessed. Four different metrics – the storm track, blocking, cyclone and windstorm frequencies – are analyzed in the North Atlantic and European region. The model bias and the deterministic decadal hindcast skill are evaluated in ensembles of five members in a lower-resolution version (LR, atm: T63L47, ocean: 1.5∘ L40) and a higher-resolution version (HR, atm: T127L95, ocean: 0.4∘ L40) of the MiKlip system based on the Max Planck Institute Earth System model (MPI-ESM). The skill is assessed for the lead winters 2–5 in terms of the anomaly correlation of the quantities' winter averages using initializations between 1978 and 2012. The deterministic predictions are considered skillful if the anomaly correlation is positive and statistically significant. While the LR version shows common shortcomings of lower-resolution climate models, e.g., a storm track that is too zonal and southward displaced as well as a negative bias of blocking frequencies over the eastern North Atlantic and Europe, the HR version counteracts these biases. Cyclones, i.e., their frequencies and characteristics like strength and lifetime, are particularly better represented in HR. As a result, a chain of significantly improved decadal prediction skill between all four metrics is found with the increase in the spatial resolution. While the skill of the storm track is significantly improved primarily over the main source region of synoptic activity – the North Atlantic Current – the other extratropical quantities experience a significant improvement primarily downstream thereof, i.e., in regions where the synoptic systems typically intensify. Thus, the skill of the cyclone frequencies is significantly improved over the central North Atlantic and northern Europe, the skill of the blocking frequencies is significantly improved over the Mediterranean, Scandinavia and eastern Europe, and the skill of the windstorms is significantly improved over Newfoundland and central Europe. Not only is the skill improved with the increase in resolution, but the HR system itself also exhibits significant skill over large areas of the North Atlantic and European sector for all four circulation metrics. These results are particularly promising regarding the high socioeconomic impact of European winter windstorms and blocking situations

Expression of DC-SIGN and DC-SIGNR on human sinusoidal endothelium: a role for capturing hepatitis C virus particles.

Hepatic sinusoidal endothelial cells are unique among endothelial cells in their ability to internalize and process a diverse range of antigens. DC-SIGNR, a type 2 C-type lectin expressed on liver sinusoids, has been shown to bind with high affinity to hepatitis C virus (HCV) E2 glycoprotein. DC-SIGN is a closely related homologue reported to be expressed only on dendritic cells and a subset of macrophages and has similar binding affinity to HCV E2 glycoprotein. These receptors function as adhesion and antigen presentation molecules. We report distinct patterns of DC-SIGNR and DC-SIGN expression in human liver tissue and show for the first time that both C-type lectins are expressed on sinusoidal endothelial cells. We confirmed that these receptors are functional by demonstrating their ability to bind HCV E2 glycoproteins. Although these lectins on primary sinusoidal cells support HCV E2 binding, they are unable to support HCV entry. These data support a model where DC-SIGN and DC-SIGNR on sinusoidal endothelium provide a mechanism for high affinity binding of circulating HCV within the liver sinusoids allowing subsequent transfer of the virus to underlying hepatocytes, in a manner analogous to DC-SIGN presentation of human immunodeficiency virus on dendritic cells

Investigation on the trophic state of the North Sea for three years (1994?1996) simulated with the ecosystem model ERSEM ? the role of a sharp NAOI decline

International audienceApplying the ecosystem model ERSEM to the Northwest-European shelf (48°?63°N, 15°W?12°E) the years 1994-1996 were simulated, which exhibit an extremely strong transition in North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAOI): from a high-NAOI to a low-NAOI regime. In order to be far enough from the boundaries of the model area the results and budgets are focussed on the North Sea area. For this region the model was validated against climatological values of nitrate as representative nutrient. For all three years the North Sea was found to be net heterotrophic: organic material was imported, inorganic material was exported. The strength of this "remineralisation-machine" was large during NAOI-high years (1994 and 1995). It was weaker in 1996 with a low NAOI. This was caused by higher net primary production in the northern North Sea during summer 1996. In this year the stratification was weaker and began later allowing the deep nutrient-rich water in the northern North Sea to be mixed into the upper layers also during early summer

Bias and Drift of the Medium-Range Decadal Climate Prediction System (MiKlip) validated by European Radiosonde Data

Quality controlled and homogenized radiosonde observations have been used to validate decadal hindcasts of the MPI-Earth-System-Model for Europe (excl. some Eastern European countries). Simulated temperatures have a cold bias of 1 to 4 K, increasing with height throughout the free troposphere over Europe. This implies that the simulated troposphere is less stable than observed by the radiosondes over Europe. Simulated relative humidity is 10 to 40 % higher than observed. Part of the humidity bias, 10 to 25 % relative humidity, is due to the simulated lower temperature, but the remainder indicates that modelled water vapour pressure is too high in the free troposphere above Europe. After full-field initialization with oceanic state, the atmospheric temperature bias changes over the first couple of years, with a relaxation time of 5 years near the surface (850 hPa) and less than 1 year near the tropopause (200 hPa). Anomaly correlations, mean-square error and logarithmic ensemble spread score indicate small improvements in hindcasted tropospheric temperatures over Europe when going from ocean anomaly initialisation to ocean anomaly initialisation plus full field atmospheric initialisation, and then to full field ocean initialisation plus full field atmospheric initialisation. In the stratosphere, these changes have little effect. For humidity, correlations and skill scores are much poorer, and little can be said about changes over Europe due to different initializations

Parallel Analysis: a Method for Determining Significant Principal Components

Numerous ecological studies use Principal Components Analysis (PCA) for exploratory analysis and data reduction. Determination of the number of components to retain is the most crucial problem confronting the researcher when using PCA. An incorrect choice may lead to the underextraction of components, but commonly results in overextraction. Of several methods proposed to determine the significance of principal components, Parallel Analysis (PA) has proven consistently accurate in determining the threshold for significant components, variable loadings, and analytical statistics when decomposing a correlation matrix. In this procedure, eigenvalues from a data set prior to rotation are compared with those from a matrix of random values of the same dimensionality (p variables and n samples). PCA eigenvalues from the data greater than PA eigenvalues from the corresponding random data can be retained. All components with eigenvalues below this threshold value should be considered spurious. We illustrate Parallel Analysis on an environmental data set. We reviewed all articles utilizing PCA or Factor Analysis (FA) from 1987 to 1993 from Ecology, Ecological Monographs, Journal of Vegetation Science and Journal of Ecology. Analyses were first separated into those PCA which decomposed a correlation matrix and those PCA which decomposed a covariance matrix. Parallel Analysis (PA) was applied for each PCA/FA found in the literature. Of 39 analyses (in 22 articles), 29 (74.4%) considered no threshold rule, presumably retaining interpretable components. According to the PA results, 26 (66.7%) overextracted components. This overextraction may have resulted in potentially misleading interpretation of spurious components. It is suggested that the routine use of PA in multivariate ordination will increase confidence in the results and reduce the subjective interpretation of supposedly objective methods

Magnetism and domain formation in SU(3)-symmetric multi-species Fermi mixtures

We study the phase diagram of an SU(3)-symmetric mixture of three-component ultracold fermions with attractive interactions in an optical lattice, including the additional effect on the mixture of an effective three-body constraint induced by three-body losses. We address the properties of the system in $D \geq 2$ by using dynamical mean-field theory and variational Monte Carlo techniques. The phase diagram of the model shows a strong interplay between magnetism and superfluidity. In the absence of the three-body constraint (no losses), the system undergoes a phase transition from a color superfluid phase to a trionic phase, which shows additional particle density modulations at half-filling. Away from the particle-hole symmetric point the color superfluid phase is always spontaneously magnetized, leading to the formation of different color superfluid domains in systems where the total number of particles of each species is conserved. This can be seen as the SU(3) symmetric realization of a more general tendency to phase-separation in three-component Fermi mixtures. The three-body constraint strongly disfavors the trionic phase, stabilizing a (fully magnetized) color superfluid also at strong coupling. With increasing temperature we observe a transition to a non-magnetized SU(3) Fermi liquid phase.Comment: 36 pages, 17 figures; Corrected typo

Predictability of the quasi-biennial oscillation and its northern winter teleconnection on seasonal to decadal timescales

Journal ArticlePublished version used with permision of the publisher.The predictability of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is examined in initialized climate forecasts extending out to lead times of years. We use initialized retrospective predictions made with coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models that have an internally generated QBO. We demonstrate predictability of the QBO extending more than 3 years into the future, well beyond timescales normally associated with internal atmospheric processes. Correlation scores with observational analyses exceed 0.7 at a lead time of 12 months. We also examine the variation of predictability with season and QBO phase and find that skill is lowest in winter. An assessment of perfect predictability suggests that higher skill may be achievable through improved initialization and climate modeling of the QBO, although this may depend on the realism of gravity wave source parameterizations in the models. Finally, we show that skilful prediction of the QBO itself does not guarantee predictability of the extratropical winter teleconnection that is important for surface winter climate prediction. Key Points The QBO is skilfully predicted in seasonal-decadal forecast systems Further improvements in predictions of the QBO are possible The QBO winter surface teleconnection is reproduced with mixed succes

Sistema sulco/camalhão para irrigação e drenagem em áreas de várzea.

SISTEMA SULCO/CAMALHÃO PARA IRRIGAÇÃO E DRENAGEM EM ÁREAS DE VÁRZEA - A soja e o milho são as principais culturas produtoras de grãos utilizadas na diversificação do sistema de produção nas várzeas do Rio Grande do Sul, em rotação com o arroz irrigado. Os principais fatores limitantes, para que estas culturas sejam produtivas e rentáveis neste sistema, são a deficiente drenagem natural do solo e a ocorrência de freqüentes períodos de estiagem, acarretando alternância entre o excesso e o déficit de umidade no solo. A Embrapa Clima Temperado testou e validou a técnica sulco/camalhão em áreas sistematizadas com e sem declive, para estes cultivos, com resultados bastante promissores. O sistema consiste na estruturação da lavoura para a irrigação por sulcos, obtendo-se, ao mesmo tempo, grande benefício em drenagem, com o cultivo sobre os camalhões formados entre os sulcos. Esta técnica, como sistema complementar de drenagem superficial do solo, mostrou-se muito eficiente mesmo nos cultivos em áreas sistematizadas sem declive, onde não existe um gradiente para escoamento superficial da água. O principal requisito para a irrigação por sulcos é que o terreno tenha uma declividade constante e uniforme, requerendo geralmente a sistematização do terreno. Para irrigações mais uniformes e eficientes, a declividade deve variar de 0,10% a 0,50%, sendo que valores intermediários entre 0,15% e 0,30% são os mais indicadosbitstream/item/31294/1/comunicado-165.pd

Subsegmentation of the Kidney in Experimental MR Images Using Morphology-Based Regions-of-Interest or Multiple-Layer Concentric Objects.

Functional renal MRI promises access to a wide range of physiologically relevant parameters such as blood oxygenation, perfusion, tissue microstructure, pH, and sodium concentration. For quantitative comparison of results, representative values must be extracted from the parametric maps obtained with these different MRI techniques. To improve reproducibility of results this should be done based on regions-of-interest (ROIs) that are clearly and objectively defined.Semiautomated subsegmentation of the kidney in magnetic resonance images represents a simple but very valuable approach for the quantitative analysis of imaging parameters in multiple ROIs that are associated with specific anatomic locations. Thereby, it facilitates comparing MR parameters between different kidney regions, as well as tracking changes over time.Here we provide detailed step-by-step instructions for two recently developed subsegmentation techniques that are suitable for kidneys of small rodents: i) the placement of ROIs in cortex, outer and the inner medulla based on typical kidney morphology and ii) the division of the kidney into concentrically oriented layers.This chapter is based upon work from the COST Action PARENCHIMA, a community-driven network funded by the European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) program of the European Union, which aims to improve the reproducibility and standardization of renal MRI biomarkers