Modelling net-zero emissions energy systems requires a change in approach

Energy modelling can assist national decision makers in determining strategies that achieve net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, three key challenges for the modelling community are emerging under this radical climate target that needs to be recognized and addressed. A first challenge is the need to represent new mitigation options not currently represented in many energy models. We emphasize here the under representation of end-use sector demand-side options due to the traditional supply side focus of many energy models, along with issues surrounding robustness in deploying carbon dioxide removal (CDR) options. A second challenge concerns the types of models used. We highlight doubts about whether current models provide sufficient relevant insights on system feasibility, actor behaviour, and policy effectiveness. A third challenge concerns how models are applied for policy analyses. Priorities include the need for expanding scenario thinking to incorporate a wider range of uncertainty factors, providing insights on target setting, alignment with broader policy objectives, and improving engagement and transparency of approaches. There is a significant risk that without reconsidering energy modelling approaches, the role that the modelling community can play in providing effective decision support may be reduced. Such support is critical, as countries seek to develop new Nationally Determined Contributions and longer-term strategies over the next few years

Modelling net-zero emissions energy systems requires a change in approach

Energy modelling can assist national decision makers in determining strategies that achieve net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, three key challenges for the modelling community are emerging under this radical climate target that needs to be recognized and addressed. A first challenge is the need to represent new mitigation options not currently represented in many energy models. We emphasize here the under representation of end-use sector demand-side options due to the traditional supply side focus of many energy models, along with issues surrounding robustness in deploying carbon dioxide removal (CDR) options. A second challenge concerns the types of models used. We highlight doubts about whether current models provide sufficient relevant insights on system feasibility, actor behaviour, and policy effectiveness. A third challenge concerns how models are applied for policy analyses. Priorities include the need for expanding scenario thinking to incorporate a wider range of uncertainty factors, providing insights on target setting, alignment with broader policy objectives, and improving engagement and transparency of approaches. There is a significant risk that without reconsidering energy modelling approaches, the role that the modelling community can play in providing effective decision support may be reduced. Such support is critical, as countries seek to develop new Nationally Determined Contributions and longer-term strategies over the next few years

Extensive DNA mimicry by the ArdA anti-restriction protein and its role in the spread of antibiotic resistance

The ardA gene, found in many prokaryotes including important pathogenic species, allows associated mobile genetic elements to evade the ubiquitous Type I DNA restriction systems and thereby assist the spread of resistance genes in bacterial populations. As such, ardA contributes to a major healthcare problem. We have solved the structure of the ArdA protein from the conjugative transposon Tn916 and find that it has a novel extremely elongated curved cylindrical structure with defined helical grooves. The high density of aspartate and glutamate residues on the surface follow a helical pattern and the whole protein mimics a 42-base pair stretch of B-form DNA making ArdA by far the largest DNA mimic known. Each monomer of this dimeric structure comprises three alpha–beta domains, each with a different fold. These domains have the same fold as previously determined proteins possessing entirely different functions. This DNA mimicry explains how ArdA can bind and inhibit the Type I restriction enzymes and we demonstrate that 6 different ardA from pathogenic bacteria can function in Escherichia coli hosting a range of different Type I restriction systems

Prospective association between handgrip strength and cardiac structure and function in UK adults.

BACKGROUND: Handgrip strength, a measure of muscular fitness, is associated with cardiovascular (CV) events and CV mortality but its association with cardiac structure and function is unknown. The goal of this study was to determine if handgrip strength is associated with changes in cardiac structure and function in UK adults. METHODS AND RESULTS: Left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction (EF), end-diastolic volume (EDV), end-systolic volume (ESV), stroke volume (SV), mass (M), and mass-to-volume ratio (MVR) were measured in a sample of 4,654 participants of the UK Biobank Study 6.3 ± 1 years after baseline using cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR). Handgrip strength was measured at baseline and at the imaging follow-up examination. We determined the association between handgrip strength at baseline as well as its change over time and each of the cardiac outcome parameters. After adjustment, higher level of handgrip strength at baseline was associated with higher LVEDV (difference per SD increase in handgrip strength: 1.3ml, 95% CI 0.1-2.4; p = 0.034), higher LVSV (1.0ml, 0.3-1.8; p = 0.006), lower LVM (-1.0g, -1.8 --0.3; p = 0.007), and lower LVMVR (-0.013g/ml, -0.018 --0.007; p<0.001). The association between handgrip strength and LVEDV and LVSV was strongest among younger individuals, while the association with LVM and LVMVR was strongest among older individuals. CONCLUSIONS: Better handgrip strength was associated with cardiac structure and function in a pattern indicative of less cardiac hypertrophy and remodeling. These characteristics are known to be associated with a lower risk of cardiovascular events

Independent Left Ventricular Morphometric Atlases Show Consistent Relationships with Cardiovascular Risk Factors: A UK Biobank Study

Left ventricular (LV) mass and volume are important indicators of clinical and pre-clinical disease processes. However, much of the shape information present in modern imaging examinations is currently ignored. Morphometric atlases enable precise quantification of shape and function, but there has been no objective comparison of different atlases in the same cohort. We compared two independent LV atlases using MRI scans of 4547 UK Biobank participants: (i) a volume atlas derived by automatic non-rigid registration of image volumes to a common template, and (ii) a surface atlas derived from manually drawn epicardial and endocardial surface contours. The strength of associations between atlas principal components and cardiovascular risk factors (smoking, diabetes, high blood pressure, high cholesterol and angina) were quantified with logistic regression models and five-fold cross validation, using area under the ROC curve (AUC) and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) metrics. Both atlases exhibited similar principal components, showed similar relationships with risk factors, and had stronger associations (higher AUC and lower AIC) than a reference model based on LV mass and volume, for all risk factors (DeLong p < 0.05). Morphometric variations associated with each risk factor could be quantified and visualized and were similar between atlases. UK Biobank LV shape atlases are robust to construction method and show stronger relationships with cardiovascular risk factors than mass and volume.British Heart Foundation (PG/14/89/31194)National Institutes of Health (USA) 1R01HL12175

Effects of Renal Denervation vs Sham in Resistant Hypertension after Medication Escalation:Prespecified Analysis at 6 Months of the RADIANCE-HTN TRIO Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCE: Although early trials of endovascular renal denervation (RDN) for patients with resistant hypertension (RHTN) reported inconsistent results, ultrasound RDN (uRDN) was found to decrease blood pressure (BP) vs sham at 2 months in patients with RHTN taking stable background medications in the Study of the ReCor Medical Paradise System in Clinical Hypertension (RADIANCE-HTN TRIO) trial. OBJECTIVES: To report the prespecified analysis of the persistence of the BP effects and safety of uRDN vs sham at 6 months in conjunction with escalating antihypertensive medications. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This randomized, sham-controlled, clinical trial with outcome assessors and patients blinded to treatment assignment, enrolled patients from March 11, 2016, to March 13, 2020. This was an international, multicenter study conducted in the US and Europe. Participants with daytime ambulatory BP of 135/85 mm Hg or higher after 4 weeks of single-pill triple-combination treatment (angiotensin-receptor blocker, calcium channel blocker, and thiazide diuretic) with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 40 mL/min/1.73 m(2 )or greater were randomly assigned to uRDN or sham with medications unchanged through 2 months. From 2 to 5 months, if monthly home BP was 135/85 mm Hg or higher, standardized stepped-care antihypertensive treatment starting with aldosterone antagonists was initiated under blinding to treatment assignment. INTERVENTIONS: uRDN vs sham procedure in conjunction with added medications to target BP control. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Six-month change in medications, change in daytime ambulatory systolic BP, change in home systolic BP adjusted for baseline BP and medications, and safety. RESULTS: A total of 65 of 69 participants in the uRDN group and 64 of 67 participants in the sham group (mean [SD] age, 52.4 [8.3] years; 104 male [80.6%]) with a mean (SD) eGFR of 81.5 (22.8) mL/min/1.73 m(2) had 6-month daytime ambulatory BP measurements. Fewer medications were added in the uRDN group (mean [SD], 0.7 [1.0] medications) vs sham (mean [SD], 1.1 [1.1] medications; P = .045) and fewer patients in the uRDN group received aldosterone antagonists at 6 months (26 of 65 [40.0%] vs 39 of 64 [60.9%]; P = .02). Despite less intensive standardized stepped-care antihypertensive treatment, mean (SD) daytime ambulatory BP at 6 months was 138.3 (15.1) mm Hg with uRDN vs 139.0 (14.3) mm Hg with sham (additional decreases of −2.4 [16.6] vs −7.0 [16.7] mm Hg from month 2, respectively), whereas home SBP was lowered to a greater extent with uRDN by 4.3 mm Hg (95% CI, 0.5-8.1 mm Hg; P = .03) in a mixed model adjusting for baseline and number of medications. Adverse events were infrequent and similar between groups. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this study, in patients with RHTN initially randomly assigned to uRDN or a sham procedure and who had persistent elevation of BP at 2 months after the procedure, standardized stepped-care antihypertensive treatment escalation resulted in similar BP reduction in both groups at 6 months, with fewer additional medications required in the uRDN group. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT0264942

The HIV-1 Nef protein binds argonaute-2 and functions as a viral suppressor of RNA interference

The HIV-1 accessory protein Nef is an important virulence factor. It associates with cellular membranes and modulates the endocytic machinery and signaling pathways. Nef also increases the proliferation of multivesicular bodies (MVBs), which are sites for virus assembly and budding in macrophages. The RNA interference (RNAi) pathway proteins Ago2 and GW182 localize to MVBs, suggesting these to be sites for assembly and turnover of the miRNA-induced silencing complex (miRISC). While RNAi affects HIV replication, it is not clear if the virus encodes a suppressor activity to overcome this innate host response. Here we show that Nef colocalizes with MVBs and binds Ago2 through two highly conserved Glycine-Tryptophan (GW) motifs, mutations in which abolish Nef binding to Ago2 and reduce virus yield and infectivity. Nef also inhibits the slicing activity of Ago2 and disturbs the sorting of GW182 into exosomes resulting in the suppression of miRNA-induced silencing. Thus, besides its other activities, the HIV-1 Nef protein is also proposed to function as a viral suppressor of RNAi (VSR)

Global burden of disease due to smokeless tobacco consumption in adults : analysis of data from 113 countries

BACKGROUND: Smokeless tobacco is consumed in most countries in the world. In view of its widespread use and increasing awareness of the associated risks, there is a need for a detailed assessment of its impact on health. We present the first global estimates of the burden of disease due to consumption of smokeless tobacco by adults. METHODS: The burden attributable to smokeless tobacco use in adults was estimated as a proportion of the disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) lost and deaths reported in the 2010 Global Burden of Disease study. We used the comparative risk assessment method, which evaluates changes in population health that result from modifying a population's exposure to a risk factor. Population exposure was extrapolated from country-specific prevalence of smokeless tobacco consumption, and changes in population health were estimated using disease-specific risk estimates (relative risks/odds ratios) associated with it. Country-specific prevalence estimates were obtained through systematically searching for all relevant studies. Disease-specific risks were estimated by conducting systematic reviews and meta-analyses based on epidemiological studies. RESULTS: We found adult smokeless tobacco consumption figures for 115 countries and estimated burden of disease figures for 113 of these countries. Our estimates indicate that in 2010, smokeless tobacco use led to 1.7 million DALYs lost and 62,283 deaths due to cancers of mouth, pharynx and oesophagus and, based on data from the benchmark 52 country INTERHEART study, 4.7 million DALYs lost and 204,309 deaths from ischaemic heart disease. Over 85 % of this burden was in South-East Asia. CONCLUSIONS: Smokeless tobacco results in considerable, potentially preventable, global morbidity and mortality from cancer; estimates in relation to ischaemic heart disease need to be interpreted with more caution, but nonetheless suggest that the likely burden of disease is also substantial. The World Health Organization needs to consider incorporating regulation of smokeless tobacco into its Framework Convention for Tobacco Control

Increased Birth Weight Associated with Regular Pre-Pregnancy Deworming and Weekly Iron-Folic Acid Supplementation for Vietnamese Women

Low birth weight is an important risk factor for neonatal and infant morbidity and mortality and may impact on growth and development. Maternal iron deficiency anaemia contributes to intrauterine growth restriction and low birth weight. Hookworm infections and an iron-depleted diet may lead to iron deficiency anaemia, and both are common in many developing countries. A pilot program of deworming and weekly iron-folic acid supplementation for non-pregnant women aiming to prevent iron deficiency was implemented in northern Vietnam. We compared the birth weight of babies born to women who had had access to the intervention to babies born in districts where the intervention had not been implemented. The mean birth weight of the intervention districts' babies was 124 g more than the control districts' babies; the prevalence of low birth weight was also reduced. These results suggest that providing women with deworming and weekly iron-folic acid supplements before pregnancy is associated with increased birth weight in rural Vietnam. This intervention was provided as a health system integrated program which could be replicated in other at-risk rural areas. If so it could increase the impact of prenatal and antenatal programs, improving the health of both women and newborns