Energy modelling can assist national decision makers in determining strategies that
achieve net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, three key challenges for
the modelling community are emerging under this radical climate target that needs to
be recognized and addressed. A first challenge is the need to represent new mitigation
options not currently represented in many energy models. We emphasize here the
under representation of end-use sector demand-side options due to the traditional
supply side focus of many energy models, along with issues surrounding robustness in
deploying carbon dioxide removal (CDR) options. A second challenge concerns the
types of models used. We highlight doubts about whether current models provide
sufficient relevant insights on system feasibility, actor behaviour, and policy
effectiveness. A third challenge concerns how models are applied for policy analyses.
Priorities include the need for expanding scenario thinking to incorporate a wider
range of uncertainty factors, providing insights on target setting, alignment with
broader policy objectives, and improving engagement and transparency of approaches.
There is a significant risk that without reconsidering energy modelling approaches, the
role that the modelling community can play in providing effective decision support
may be reduced. Such support is critical, as countries seek to develop new Nationally
Determined Contributions and longer-term strategies over the next few years