GENETIC POLYMORPHISM OF INFLAMMATORY FACTORS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THROMBOEMBOLIC COMPLICATIONS OF ATRIAL FIBRILLATION

Aim. To reveal the association of hereditary specifics of inflammatory factors with the adverse risk in atrial fibrillation (AF).Material and methods. Totally 258 patients studied (68,5±0,67 y. o.) with nonvalvular AF, recording the events as ischemic stroke, myocardial infarction, venous and arterial thromboembolism. Mean follow-up was 455±11,71 days.Results. Factors that are independently associated with ischemic stroke development in patients not receiving anticoagulants (n=101), were the allele C of polymorphic marker rs2228145(А/С) of gene IL-6 receptor (OR 13,25 CI 1,57112,18, р=0,018), age ?75 y. o. (OR 1,1, CI 1,008-1,2, р=0,032) and EF LV (OR 0,97 CI 0,94-0,99 р=0,027), with a “thrombotic endpoint” development — DM (OR 4,3 CI 1,46-12,45 р=0,008), EF LV (OR 0,96 CI 0,94-0,98, р<0,0001) and carriage of allele C of polymorphic marker rs2228145(А/С) of receptor to IL-6 gene (OR 4,03 CI 1,0715,26, р=0,04). There was no association with adverse outcomes in genes IL-6 polymorphisms as (G(-174)C and G(-572)C), ИЛ-10 (C(-819)T), ФНО (G(-238)A, G(-308)A and ФНО? rs180630). In those receiving adequate anticoagulant therapy (n=157) there was no significant association of IL-6 receptor gene polymorphism with adverse outcomes.Conclusion. Therefore, the carriage of allele C of polymorphic marker rs2228145(А/С) of the IL-6 receptor gene might be an independent risk marker for adverse outcome in non-valvular AF, potentially, being a selection tool for those patients not having enough high risk according to common scores

Kompleksiti Persembahan Randai Dalam Kehidupan Masyarakat Minangkabau Di Sumatera Barat

Randai adalah salah satu kesenian tradisional Minangkabau di Sumatera Barat yang masih hidup dan berterusan berkembang hingga kini. Randai muncul tahun 1932 di Labuah Basilang Kabupaten Lima Puluh Kota, merupakan persembahan kaba yang mendapat pengaruh daripada teater komedi bangsawan Melayu. Randai disajikan untuk upacara adat dan acara-acara seperti pesta perkahwinan, pesta panen, pasar malam, hiburan untuk para pelancong, upacara batagak penghulu dan pesta rakyat lainnya. Randai juga memiliki beberapa fungsi dalam kehidupan masyarakat Minangkabau seperti fungsi hiburan, fungsi ekspresi artistik dan kesenimanan, fungsi interaksi dan identiti sosial, fungsi dialog dan kritik sosial

Uncertainties in climate responses to past land cover change: First results from the LUCID intercomparison study

Seven climate models were used to explore the biogeophysical impacts of human-induced land cover change (LCC) at regional and global scales. The imposed LCC led to statistically significant decreases in the northern hemisphere summer latent heat flux in three models, and increases in three models. Five models simulated statistically significant cooling in summer in near-surface temperature over regions of LCC and one simulated warming. There were few significant changes in precipitation. Our results show no common remote impacts of LCC. The lack of consistency among the seven models was due to: 1) the implementation of LCC despite agreed maps of agricultural land, 2) the representation of crop phenology, 3) the parameterisation of albedo, and 4) the representation of evapotranspiration for different land cover types. This study highlights a dilemma: LCC is regionally significant, but it is not feasible to impose a common LCC across multiple models for the next IPCC assessment

Social and economic coast of suicides poisons in the Sverdlovsk Region the study period 2002-2008

The social cost of premature death relating to suicides poisons in the Sverdlovsk Region was 647 peoples for the study period 2002-2008. The economic cost of premature death relating to suicides poisons was 736,0 million rubles. The limitations of this study should be recognized when applying to its findings. Therefore they should be treated as approximations.Экономическая составляющая ущерба, обусловленного преждевременной смертностью от острых суицидальных отравлений рассчитывается исходя из соотношения количества недожитых человеко-лет с долей валового регионального продукта, приходящегося на одного жителя области (подушевой валовой региональный продукт). В работе представлены результаты расчетов экономического ущерба Свердловской области в связи с преждевременной смертностью от суицидальных отравлений. В результате расчетов, проведенных авторами данной работы было определено, что за семь лет в Свердловской области погибло от суицидальных отравлений погибло 647 пациентов, (социальный ущерб). Экономические потери региона в результате преждевременной смерти дотрудоспособного и трудоспособного населения от суицидальных отравлений за 2002-2008гг. составил 736 млн. рублей (экономический ущерб). Естественно, что при использовании полученных данных, необходимо иметь в виду определенные ограничения, которые существуют в данном исследовании. В связи с этим, полученные данные следует рассматривать как приблизительные

Interglacials of the last 800,000 years

Interglacials, including the present (Holocene) period, are warm, low land ice extent (high sea level), end‐members of glacial cycles. Based on a sea level definition, we identify eleven interglacials in the last 800,000 years, a result that is robust to alternative definitions. Data compilations suggest that despite spatial heterogeneity, Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 5e (last interglacial) and 11c (~400 ka ago) were globally strong (warm), while MIS 13a (~500 ka ago) was cool at many locations. A step change in strength of interglacials at 450 ka is apparent only in atmospheric CO2 and in Antarctic and deep ocean temperature. The onset of an interglacial (glacial termination) seems to require a reducing precession parameter (increasing Northern Hemisphere summer insolation), but this condition alone is insufficient. Terminations involve rapid, nonlinear, reactions of ice volume, CO2, and temperature to external astronomical forcing. The precise timing of events may be modulated by millennial‐scale climate change that can lead to a contrasting timing of maximum interglacial intensity in each hemisphere. A variety of temporal trends is observed, such that maxima in the main records are observed either early or late in different interglacials. The end of an interglacial (glacial inception) is a slower process involving a global sequence of changes. Interglacials have been typically 10-30 ka long. The combination of minimal reduction in northern summer insolation over the next few orbital cycles, owing to low eccentricity, and high atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations implies that the next glacial inception is many tens of millennia in the future

Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: conclusions from a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP)

Global wetlands are believed to be climate sensitive, and are the largest natural emitters of methane (CH<sub>4</sub>). Increased wetland CH<sub>4</sub> emissions could act as a positive feedback to future warming. The Wetland and Wetland CH<sub>4</sub> Inter-comparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP) investigated our present ability to simulate large-scale wetland characteristics and corresponding CH<sub>4</sub> emissions. To ensure inter-comparability, we used a common experimental protocol driving all models with the same climate and carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) forcing datasets. The WETCHIMP experiments were conducted for model equilibrium states as well as transient simulations covering the last century. Sensitivity experiments investigated model response to changes in selected forcing inputs (precipitation, temperature, and atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentration). Ten models participated, covering the spectrum from simple to relatively complex, including models tailored either for regional or global simulations. The models also varied in methods to calculate wetland size and location, with some models simulating wetland area prognostically, while other models relied on remotely sensed inundation datasets, or an approach intermediate between the two. <br><br> Four major conclusions emerged from the project. First, the suite of models demonstrate extensive disagreement in their simulations of wetland areal extent and CH<sub>4</sub> emissions, in both space and time. Simple metrics of wetland area, such as the latitudinal gradient, show large variability, principally between models that use inundation dataset information and those that independently determine wetland area. Agreement between the models improves for zonally summed CH<sub>4</sub> emissions, but large variation between the models remains. For annual global CH<sub>4</sub> emissions, the models vary by ±40% of the all-model mean (190 Tg CH<sub>4</sub> yr<sup>−1</sup>). Second, all models show a strong positive response to increased atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations (857 ppm) in both CH<sub>4</sub> emissions and wetland area. In response to increasing global temperatures (+3.4 °C globally spatially uniform), on average, the models decreased wetland area and CH<sub>4</sub> fluxes, primarily in the tropics, but the magnitude and sign of the response varied greatly. Models were least sensitive to increased global precipitation (+3.9 % globally spatially uniform) with a consistent small positive response in CH<sub>4</sub> fluxes and wetland area. Results from the 20th century transient simulation show that interactions between climate forcings could have strong non-linear effects. Third, we presently do not have sufficient wetland methane observation datasets adequate to evaluate model fluxes at a spatial scale comparable to model grid cells (commonly 0.5°). This limitation severely restricts our ability to model global wetland CH<sub>4</sub> emissions with confidence. Our simulated wetland extents are also difficult to evaluate due to extensive disagreements between wetland mapping and remotely sensed inundation datasets. Fourth, the large range in predicted CH<sub>4</sub> emission rates leads to the conclusion that there is both substantial parameter and structural uncertainty in large-scale CH<sub>4</sub> emission models, even after uncertainties in wetland areas are accounted for

Interglacials of the last 800,000 years

Interglacials, including the present (Holocene) period, are warm, low land ice extent (high sea level), end-members of glacial cycles. Based on a sea level definition, we identify eleven interglacials in the last 800,000 years, a result that is robust to alternative definitions. Data compilations suggest that despite spatial heterogeneity, Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 5e (last interglacial) and 11c (~400 ka ago) were globally strong (warm), while MIS 13a (~500 ka ago) was cool at many locations. A step change in strength of interglacials at 450 ka is apparent only in atmospheric CO$_{2}$ and in Antarctic and deep ocean temperature. The onset of an interglacial (glacial termination) seems to require a reducing precession parameter (increasing Northern Hemisphere summer insolation), but this condition alone is insufficient. Terminations involve rapid, nonlinear, reactions of ice volume, CO$_{2}$, and temperature to external astronomical forcing. The precise timing of events may be modulated by millennial-scale climate change that can lead to a contrasting timing of maximum interglacial intensity in each hemisphere. A variety of temporal trends is observed, such that maxima in the main records are observed either early or late in different interglacials. The end of an interglacial (glacial inception) is a slower process involving a global sequence of changes. Interglacials have been typically 10–30 ka long. The combination of minimal reduction in northern summer insolation over the next few orbital cycles, owing to low eccentricity, and high atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations implies that the next glacial inception is many tens of millennia in the future.This paper arose as a result of a succession of workshops of the Past Interglacials Group (PIGS), sponsored by the Past Global Changes Project (PAGES). The authors acknowledge the contributions of all participants at those workshops, of whom the listed authors are only a subset. Numerous funding agencies have contributed to the work of this paper including NSF (USA), NERC and The Royal Society (UK), F.R.S –FNRS (Belgium), and SNF (Switzerland). Most data described in this paper are available through relevant data repositories, http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data and www.pangaea.de in particular. In addition, the datasets from which Tables 2 and 3 were derived have been compiled into a spreadsheet as a supplement to this paper. Insolation data for Figure 5 can be calculated using programs available at ftp://ftp.elic.ucl.ac.be/berger/berger78/ and ftp://ftp.elic.ucl.ac.be/berger/ellipticintegrals/.  This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Wiley via http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2015RG00048

Carbon dioxide and climate impulse response functions for the computation of greenhouse gas metrics: a multi-model analysis

The responses of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other climate variables to an emission pulse of CO2 into the atmosphere are often used to compute the Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Global Temperature change Potential (GTP), to characterize the response timescales of Earth System models, and to build reduced-form models. In this carbon cycle-climate model intercomparison project, which spans the full model hierarchy, we quantify responses to emission pulses of different magnitudes injected under different conditions. The CO2 response shows the known rapid decline in the first few decades followed by a millennium-scale tail. For a 100 Gt-C emission pulse added to a constant CO2 concentration of 389 ppm, 25 ± 9% is still found in the atmosphere after 1000 yr; the ocean has absorbed 59 ± 12% and the land the remainder (16 ± 14%). The response in global mean surface air temperature is an increase by 0.20 ± 0.12 °C within the first twenty years; thereafter and until year 1000, temperature decreases only slightly, whereas ocean heat content and sea level continue to rise. Our best estimate for the Absolute Global Warming Potential, given by the time-integrated response in CO2 at year 100 multiplied by its radiative efficiency, is 92.5 × 10−15 yr W m−2 per kg-CO2. This value very likely (5 to 95% confidence) lies within the range of (68 to 117) × 10−15 yr W m−2 per kg-CO2. Estimates for time-integrated response in CO2 published in the IPCC First, Second, and Fourth Assessment and our multi-model best estimate all agree within 15% during the first 100 yr. The integrated CO2 response, normalized by the pulse size, is lower for pre-industrial conditions, compared to present day, and lower for smaller pulses than larger pulses. In contrast, the response in temperature, sea level and ocean heat content is less sensitive to these choices. Although, choices in pulse size, background concentration, and model lead to uncertainties, the most important and subjective choice to determine AGWP of CO2 and GWP is the time horizon

The influence of gestational remodeling in venous pool of the lower extremity and placental vessels on development of placentary insufficiency at the pregnancy burdened by a chronic venous isuffiency

It is spent prospective randomized research ot 3 groups of pregnant women. The basic group was made by 62 pregnant women with chronic venous insufficiency, receiving the differentiated treatment on the developed algorithm with application vein tonics (Flebodia 600). The comparison group included 62 pregnant women with for the first time revealed chronic venous insufficiency, receiving not differentiated therapy. The control group is presented by 25 pregnant women without a pathology. Have been estimated hemostasiological parametres, the control of a condition of venous system of the bottom finitenesses was spent by a duplex scanning. The condition a fetoplacental complex was estimated (biophysical profile of a fetus, Doppler sonography, cardiotocography). During research the positive correlation interrelation between hemocoagulation activity, peak systolic to end diastolic ratio, a resistance index uterines arteries and haemodynamics in the big hypodermic vein is received at duplex scanning that allows to assume the mechanism of development of placentary insufficiency at the pregnancy complicated by a chronic venous insufficiency and to develop the differentiated approach to therapy for preventive maintenance pathological gestational remodeling and thrombogenesis.Проведено проспективное рандомизированное исследование 2 групп беременных. Основную I группу составили 62 беременные с ХВН, получавшие дифференцированное лечение по разработанному алгоритму с применением флеботоников (Флебодиа 600). Группа II сравнения включала 62 беременных с впервые выявленной ХВН, получавших недифференцированную терапию. Группа контроля представлена 25 беременными без патологии. Были оценены гемостазиологические параметры, контроль состояния венозной системы нижних конечностей проводился методом дуплексного ангиосканирования. Оценивалось состояние фетоплацентарного комплекса (биофизический профиль плода, допплерография, кардиотокограмма). В ходе исследования получена положительная корреляционная взаимосвязь между гемокоагуляционной активностью, систолодиастолическим отношением, индексом резистентности маточных артерий и гемодинамикой в большой подкожной вене при дуплексном ангиосканировании, что позволяет предположить механизм развития плацентарной недостаточности при беременности, осложненной хронической венозной недостаточности и разработать дифференцированный подход к терапии для профилактики патологического гестационного ремоделирования и тромбообразования

Chapter 1.2: Tipping points in the cryosphere

Drastic changes in our planet’s frozen landscapes have occurred over recent decades, from Arctic sea ice decline and thawing of permafrost soils to polar amplification, the retreat of glaciers and ice loss from the ice sheets. In this chapter, we assess multiple lines of evidence for tipping points in the cryosphere – encompassing the ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica, sea ice, mountain glaciers and permafrost – based on recent observations, palaeorecords, numerical modelling and theoretical understanding. With about 1.2°C of global warming compared to pre-industrial levels, we are getting dangerously close to the temperature thresholds of some major tipping points for the ice sheets of Greenland and West Antarctica. Crossing these would lock in unavoidable long-term global sea level rise of up to 10 metres. There is evidence for localised and regional tipping points for glaciers and permafrost and, while evidence for global-scale tipping dynamics in sea ice, glaciers and permafrost is limited, their decline will continue with unabated global warming. Because of the long response times of these systems, some impacts of crossing potential tipping points will unfold over centuries to millennia. However, with the current trajectory of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and subsequent anthropogenic climate change, such largely irreversible changes might already have been triggered. These will cause far-reaching impacts for ecosystems and humans alike, threatening the livelihoods of millions of people, and will become more severe the further global warming progresses. The scientific content of this chapter is based on the following manuscript in preparation: Winkelmann et al., (in prep