Estimation of in place hydrocarbon volume in multilayered reservoirs using deterministic and probabilistic approaches

International audienceThis paper presents the results of the calculation techniques used for estimation of hydrocarbon initially in place for a multilayered gas reservoir located in the Persian Gulf via two methodologies. The porosity, water saturation, and net pay raw datasets for six wells enclosed within the studied area are thoroughly examined and fed to the deterministic and probabilistic calculation algorithms and the results are compared. In order to include the probable effects of the uncertainties associated with reservoir characterization, two distinct methodologies are developed and incorporated in both types of the calculation processes. In the first methodology, total hydrocarbon volume is calculated in one stage, while in another, hydrocarbon volume estimation have been carried out separately in each producing layer; then, summing them to estimate total hydrocarbon volume. The prominent conclusion of this research indicates that the second developed method in both deterministic and probabilistic conditions presentsmore reliable results for hydrocarbon volume estimation

3D gravity data-space inversion with sparseness and bound constraints

Abstract One of the most remarkable basis of the gravity data inversion is the recognition of sharp boundaries between an ore body and its host rocks during the interpretation step. Therefore, in this work, it is attempted to develop an inversion approach to determine a 3D density distribution that produces a given gravity anomaly. The subsurface model consists of a 3D rectangular prisms of known sizes and positions and unknown density contrasts that are required to be estimated. The proposed inversion scheme incorporates the Cauchy norm as a model norm that imposes sparseness and the depth weighting of the solution. A physicalbound constraint is enforced using a generic transformation of the model parameters. The inverse problem is posed in the data space, leading to a smaller dimensional linear system of equations to be solved and a reduction in the computation time. For more efficiency, the low-dimensional linear system of equations is solved using a fast iterative method such as Lanczos Bidiagonalization. The tests carried out on the synthetic data show that the sparse data-space inversion produces blocky and focused solutions. The results obtained for the 3D inversion of the field gravity data (Mobrun gravity data) indicate that the sparse data-space inversion could produce the density models consistent with the true structures

Types of poisoning in a tertiary care hospital in center of Iran (2014 to 2017)

The global problem of acute poisoning has steadily increased over the past decade. It is an importantcause of morbidity and mortality in developing countries. Better preventive and management strategiescan be developed if the incidence and pattern of acute poisoning is known. The study aims at analyzingthe pattern, cause and mortality rate of poisoning.The study was conducted in aurban and rural area in the center of Iran. This retrospective study was conducted fromJanuary 2014-March 2017. The data was analysed using descriptive and analytical statistics.:Out of the 1329 cases 754 were males and 575 females. Poisoning was common in the age group of 21-30 years. The poisons consumed were as follows:63.8 were suicides, 17.8 accidental and 18.4 had a variety of different reasons. Mortality rate was 6.5.The results of the study showed that the highest rate of poisoning in the young age group was due to suicidal ideation. Accurate training for youth and counseling is of particular importance.Establishment of strict policies against the sale and availability of pesticides and over the counter drugs is an effective way to control drug poisoning. © 2019, Advanced Scientific Research. All rights reserved

Bipolar Electrocautery

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The German Music@Home: Validation of a questionnaire measuring at home musical exposure and interaction of young children.

The present study introduces the German version of the original version of the Music@Home questionnaire developed in the UK, which systematically evaluates musical engagement in the home environment of young children. Two versions are available, an Infant version for children aged three to 23 months and a Preschool version for children aged two to five and a half years. For the present study, the original Music@Home questionnaire was translated from English into German and 656 caregivers completed the questionnaire online. A confirmatory factor analysis showed moderate to high fit indices for both versions, confirming the factor structure of the original questionnaire. Also, the reliability coefficients for the subscales (Parental beliefs, Child engagement with music, Parent initiation of singing, Parent initiation of music-making for the Infant version and Parental beliefs, Child engagement with music, Parent initiation of music behavior and Breadth of musical exposure for the Preschool version) ranged from moderate to high fits. Furthermore, the test-retest analysis (N = 392) revealed high correlations for the general factor and all subscales confirming their internal reliability. Additionally, we included language questionnaires for children of two and three years of age. Results showed that higher scores on the Music@Home questionnaire were moderately associated with better language skills in two-year-olds (N = 118). In sum, the study presents the validated German Music@Home questionnaire, which shows good psychometric properties. The two versions of the questionnaire are available for use in order to assess home musical engagement of young children, which could be of interest in many areas of developmental research

Shear wave velocity prediction using seismic attributes and well log data

Formation’s properties can be estimated indirectly using joint analysis of compressional and shear wave velocities. Shear wave data isnot usually acquired during well logging, which is most likely for costsaving purposes. Even if shear data is available, the logging programs provide only sparsely sampled one-dimensional measurements: this informationis inadequate to estimate reservoir rock properties. Thus, if the shear wave data can be obtained using seismic methods, the results can be used across the field to estimate reservoir properties. The aim of this paper is to use seismic attributes for prediction of shear wave velocity in a field located in southern part of Iran. Independent component analysis(ICA) was used to select the most relevant attributes to shear velocity data. Considering the nonlinear relationship between seismic attributes and shear wave velocity, multi-layer feed forward neural network was used for prediction of shear wave velocity and promising results were presented

The global, regional, and national burden of pancreatic cancer and its attributable risk factors in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Worldwide, both the incidence and death rates of pancreatic cancer are increasing. Evaluation of pancreatic cancer burden and its global, regional, and national patterns is crucial to policy making and better resource allocation for controlling pancreatic cancer risk factors, developing early detection methods, and providing faster and more effective treatments. Methods: Vital registration, vital registration sample, and cancer registry data were used to generate mortality, incidence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) estimates. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the proportion of deaths attributable to risk factors for pancreatic cancer: smoking, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. All of the estimates were reported as counts and age-standardised rates per 100 000 person-years. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were reported for all estimates. Findings: In 2017, there were 448 000 (95% UI 439 000\u2013456 000) incident cases of pancreatic cancer globally, of which 232 000 (210 000\u2013221 000; 51\ub79%) were in males. The age-standardised incidence rate was 5\ub70 (4\ub79\u20135\ub71) per 100 000 person-years in 1990 and increased to 5\ub77 (5\ub76\u20135\ub78) per 100 000 person-years in 2017. There was a 2\ub73 times increase in number of deaths for both sexes from 196 000 (193 000\u2013200 000) in 1990 to 441 000 (433 000\u2013449 000) in 2017. There was a 2\ub71 times increase in DALYs due to pancreatic cancer, increasing from 4\ub74 million (4\ub73\u20134\ub75) in 1990 to 9\ub71 million (8\ub79\u20139\ub73) in 2017. The age-standardised death rate of pancreatic cancer was highest in the high-income super-region across all years from 1990 to 2017. In 2017, the highest age-standardised death rates were observed in Greenland (17\ub74 [15\ub78\u201319\ub70] per 100 000 person-years) and Uruguay (12\ub71 [10\ub79\u201313\ub75] per 100 000 person-years). These countries also had the highest age-standardised death rates in 1990. Bangladesh (1\ub79 [1\ub75\u20132\ub73] per 100 000 person-years) had the lowest rate in 2017, and S\ue3o Tom\ue9 and Pr\uedncipe (1\ub73 [1\ub71\u20131\ub75] per 100 000 person-years) had the lowest rate in 1990. The numbers of incident cases and deaths peaked at the ages of 65\u201369 years for males and at 75\u201379 years for females. Age-standardised pancreatic cancer deaths worldwide were primarily attributable to smoking (21\ub71% [18\ub78\u201323\ub77]), high fasting plasma glucose (8\ub79% [2\ub71\u201319\ub74]), and high body-mass index (6\ub72% [2\ub75\u201311\ub74]) in 2017. Interpretation: Globally, the number of deaths, incident cases, and DALYs caused by pancreatic cancer has more than doubled from 1990 to 2017. The increase in incidence of pancreatic cancer is likely to continue as the population ages. Prevention strategies should focus on modifiable risk factors. Development of screening programmes for early detection and more effective treatment strategies for pancreatic cancer are needed. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Predicting the environmental suitability for onchocerciasis in Africa as an aid to elimination planning

Recent evidence suggests that, in some foci, elimination of onchocerciasis from Africa may be feasible with mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. To achieve continental elimination of transmission, mapping surveys will need to be conducted across all implementation units (IUs) for which endemicity status is currently unknown. Using boosted regression tree models with optimised hyperparameter selection, we estimated environmental suitability for onchocerciasis at the 5 × 5-km resolution across Africa. In order to classify IUs that include locations that are environmentally suitable, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify an optimal threshold for suitability concordant with locations where onchocerciasis has been previously detected. This threshold value was then used to classify IUs (more suitable or less suitable) based on the location within the IU with the largest mean prediction. Mean estimates of environmental suitability suggest large areas across West and Central Africa, as well as focal areas of East Africa, are suitable for onchocerciasis transmission, consistent with the presence of current control and elimination of transmission efforts. The ROC analysis identified a mean environmental suitability index of 0.71 as a threshold to classify based on the location with the largest mean prediction within the IU. Of the IUs considered for mapping surveys, 50.2% exceed this threshold for suitability in at least one 5×5-km location. The formidable scale of data collection required to map onchocerciasis endemicity across the African continent presents an opportunity to use spatial data to identify areas likely to be suitable for onchocerciasis transmission. National onchocerciasis elimination programmes may wish to consider prioritising these IUs for mapping surveys as human resources, laboratory capacity, and programmatic schedules may constrain survey implementation, and possibly delaying MDA initiation in areas that would ultimately qualify

Mapping subnational HIV mortality in six Latin American countries with incomplete vital registration systems

Background: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains a public health priority in Latin America. While the burden of HIV is historically concentrated in urban areas and high-risk groups, subnational estimates that cover multiple countries and years are missing. This paucity is partially due to incomplete vital registration (VR) systems and statistical challenges related to estimating mortality rates in areas with low numbers of HIV deaths. In this analysis, we address this gap and provide novel estimates of the HIV mortality rate and the number of HIV deaths by age group, sex, and municipality in Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, and Mexico. Methods: We performed an ecological study using VR data ranging from 2000 to 2017, dependent on individual country data availability. We modeled HIV mortality using a Bayesian spatially explicit mixed-effects regression model that incorporates prior information on VR completeness. We calibrated our results to the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Results: All countries displayed over a 40-fold difference in HIV mortality between municipalities with the highest and lowest age-standardized HIV mortality rate in the last year of study for men, and over a 20-fold difference for women. Despite decreases in national HIV mortality in all countries—apart from Ecuador—across the period of study, we found broad variation in relative changes in HIV mortality at the municipality level and increasing relative inequality over time in all countries. In all six countries included in this analysis, 50% or more HIV deaths were concentrated in fewer than 10% of municipalities in the latest year of study. In addition, national age patterns reflected shifts in mortality to older age groups—the median age group among decedents ranged from 30 to 45 years of age at the municipality level in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico in 2017. Conclusions: Our subnational estimates of HIV mortality revealed significant spatial variation and diverging local trends in HIV mortality over time and by age. This analysis provides a framework for incorporating data and uncertainty from incomplete VR systems and can help guide more geographically precise public health intervention to support HIV-related care and reduce HIV-related deaths