A Self-calibrating Runoff and Streamflow Remote Sensing Model for Ungauged Basins Using Open-access Earth Observation Data

Due to increasing pressures on water resources, there is a need to monitor regional water resource availability in a spatially and temporally explicit manner. However, for many parts of the world, there is insufficient data to quantify stream flow or ground water infiltration rates. We present the results of a pixel-based water balance formulation to partition rainfall into evapotranspiration, surface water runoff and potential ground water infiltration. The method leverages remote sensing derived estimates of precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, Leaf Area Index, and a single F coefficient to distinguish between runoff and storage changes. The study produced significant correlations between the remote sensing method and field based measurements of river flow in two Vietnamese river basins. For the Ca basin, we found R2 values ranging from 0.88–0.97 and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values varying between 0.44–0.88. The R2 for the Red River varied between 0.87–0.93 and NSE values between 0.61 and 0.79. Based on these findings, we conclude that the method allows for a fast and cost-effective way to map water resource availability in basins with no gauges or monitoring infrastructure, without the need for application of sophisticated hydrological models or resource-intensive data

Using Field Data to Assess Model Predictions of Surface and Ground Fuel Consumption by Wildfire in Coniferous Forests of California

Inventories of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from wildfire provide essential information to the state of California, USA, and other governments that have enacted emission reductions. Wildfires can release a substantial amount of GHGs and other compounds to the atmosphere, so recent increases in fire activity may be increasing GHG emissions. Quantifying wildfire emissions however can be difficult due to inherent variability in fuel loads and consumption and a lack of field data of fuel consumption by wildfire. We compare a unique set of fuel data collected immediately before and after six wildfires in coniferous forests of California to fuel consumption predictions of the first-order fire effects model (FOFEM), based on two different available fuel characterizations. We found strong regional differences in the performance of different fuel characterizations, with FOFEM overestimating the fuel consumption to a greater extent in the Klamath Mountains than in the Sierra Nevada. Inaccurate fuel load inputs caused the largest differences between predicted and observed fuel consumption. Fuel classifications tended to overestimate duff load and underestimate litter load, leading to differences in predicted emissions for some pollutants. When considering total ground and surface fuels, modeled consumption was fairly accurate on average, although the range of error in estimates of plot level consumption was very large. These results highlight the importance of fuel load input to the accuracy of modeled fuel consumption and GHG emissions from wildfires in coniferous forests

A potential new tool for the toolbox: assessing gene drives for eradicating invasive rodent populations

Invasive rodents have significant negative impacts on island biodiversity. All but the smallest of rodent eradications currently rely on island-wide rodenticide applications. Although significant advances have been made in mitigating unintended impacts, rodent eradication on inhabited islands remains extremely challenging. Current tools restrict eradication eff orts to fewer than 15% of islands with critically endangered or endangered species threatened by invasive rodents. The Genetic Biocontrol of Invasive Rodents partnership is an interdisciplinary collaboration to develop and evaluate gene drive technology for eradicating invasive rodent populations on islands. Technological approaches currently being investigated include the production of multiple strains of Mus musculus with a modifi ed form of the native t-complex, or a CRISPR gene drive, carrying genes or mechanisms that determine sex. These systems have the potential to skew the sex ratio of off spring to approach 100% single-sex, which could result in population collapse. One goal proposed is to test the ability of constructs to spread and increase in frequency in M. musculus populations in biosecure, captive settings and undertake modelling to inform development and potential deployment of these systems. Structured ecologically-based risk assessments are proposed, along with social and cultural engagement to assess the acceptability of releasing a gene drive system. Work will be guided by an external ethics advisory board. Partners are from three countries with significant regulatory capacity (USA, Australia, New Zealand). Thus, we will seek data sharing agreements so that results from experiments may be used within all three countries and treat regulatory requirements as a minimum. Species-specific, scalable, and socially acceptable new eradication tools could produce substantial biodiversity benefits not possible with current technologies. Gene drive innovation may provide such a tool for invasive species management and be potentially transformative and worthy of exploring in an inclusive, responsible, and ethical manner

High sustained efficacy of a prophylactic quadrivalent human papillomavirus types 6/11/16/18 L1 virus-like particle vaccine through 5 years of follow-up

Human papillomavirus (HPV) causes cervical, vulvar, and vaginal cancers, precancerous dysplasia, and genital warts. We report data for the longest efficacy evaluation to date of a prophylactic HPV vaccine. In total, 552 women (16–23 years) were enrolled in a randomised, placebo-controlled study of a quadrivalent HPV 6/11/16/18 L1 virus-like-particle vaccine with vaccination at months 0, 2, and 6. At regular intervals through 3 years, subjects underwent gynaecologic examination, cervicovaginal sampling for HPV DNA, serum anti-HPV testing, and Pap testing, with follow-up biopsy as indicated. A subset of 241 subjects underwent two further years of follow-up. At 5 years post enrolment, the combined incidence of HPV 6/11/16/18-related persistent infection or disease was reduced in vaccine-recipients by 96% (two cases vaccine versus 46 placebo). There were no cases of HPV 6/11/16/18-related precancerous cervical dysplasia or genital warts in vaccine recipients, and six cases in placebo recipients (efficacy=100%; 95% CI:12–100%). Through 5 years, vaccine-induced anti-HPV geometric mean titres remained at or above those following natural infection. In conclusion, a prophylactic quadrivalent HPV vaccine was effective through 5 years for prevention of persistent infection and disease caused by HPV 6/11/16/18. This duration supports vaccination of adolescents and young adults, which is expected to greatly reduce the burden of cervical and genital cancers, precancerous dysplasia, and genital warts

Clinical significance of hypoalbuminemia in outcome of patients with scrub typhus

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>This study was designed to investigate the clinical significance of hypoalbuminemia as a marker of severity and mortality in patients with Scrub typhus.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The patients with scrub typhus were divided into two groups based on the serum albumin levels; Group I (serum albumin <3.0 g/dL) and Group II (serum albumin ≥3.0 g/dL). The outcome of patients with hypoalbuminemia was compared with that of normoalbuminemia.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of the total 246 patients who underwent the study, 84 patients (34.1%) were categorized as Group I and 162 patients were (65.9%) as Group II. Group I showed significantly higher incidence of confusion (24.6% vs. 5.3%, <it>p </it>< 0.001), pulmonary edema (15.8% vs. 3.2%, <it>p </it>= 0.002), pleural effusion (22.8% vs. 11.1%, <it>p </it>= 0.03), arrhythmia (12.3% vs. 2.6%, <it>p </it>= 0.008) and non-oliguric acute renal failure (40.4% vs. 11.1%, <it>p </it>< 0.001) compared to group II. Hypoalbuminemic group had a higher APACHE II score (11.37 ± 5.0 vs. 6.94 ± 4.2, <it>p </it>< 0.001), longer hospital stay (19.9 ± 42.1 days vs 7.5 ± 13.8 days, <it>p </it>= 0.012), and higher hospital cost compared to Group II.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This study showed hypoalbuminemia in scrub typhus was closely related to the frequency of various complication, longer hospital stay, consequently the higher medical cost, necessitating more efficient management of patients, including medical resources.</p

A pooled analysis of continued prophylactic efficacy of quadrivalent human papillomavirus (types 6/11/16/18) vaccine against high-grade cervical and external genital lesions

Quadrivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine has been shown to provide protection from HPV 6/11/16/18-related cervical, vaginal, and vulvar disease through 3 years. We provide an update on the efficacy of the quadrivalent HPV vaccine against high-grade cervical, vaginal, and vulvar lesions based on end-of-study data from three clinical trials. Additionally, we stratify vaccine efficacy by several baseline characteristics, including age, smoking status, and Papanicolaou (Pap) test results. A total of 18,174 females ages 16 to 26 years were randomized and allocated into one of three clinical trials (protocols 007, 013, and 015). Vaccine or placebo was given at baseline, month 2, and month 6. Pap testing was conducted at regular intervals. Cervical and anogenital swabs were collected for HPV DNA testing. Examination for the presence of vulvar and vaginal lesions was also done. Endpoints included high-grade cervical, vulvar, or vaginal lesions (CIN 2/3, VIN 2/3, or ValN 2/3). Mean follow-up time was 42 months post dose 1. Vaccine efficacy against HPV 6/11/16/18-related high-grade cervical lesions in the per-protocol and intention-to-treat populations was 98.2% [95% confidence interval (95% CI), 93.3-99.8] and 51.5% (95% CI, 40.6-60.6), respectively. Vaccine efficacy against HPV 6/11/16/18-related high-grade vulvar and vaginal lesions in the per-protocol and intention-to-treat populations was 100.0% (95% CI, 82.6-100.0) and 79.0% (95% CI, 56.4-91.0), respectively. Efficacy in the intention-to-treat population tended to be lower in older women, women with more partners, and women with abnormal Pap test results. The efficacy of quadrivalent HPV vaccine against high-grade cervical and external anogenital neoplasia remains high through 42 months post vaccination. ©2009 American Association for Cancer Research

Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) types Western blot (WB) band profiles as potential surrogate markers of HIV disease progression and predictors of vertical transmission in a cohort of infected but antiretroviral therapy naïve pregnant women in Harare, Zimbabwe

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Expensive CD4 count and viral load tests have failed the intended objective of enabling access to HIV therapy in poor resource settings. It is imperative to develop simple, affordable and non-subjective disease monitoring tools to complement clinical staging efforts of inexperienced health personnel currently manning most healthcare centres because of brain drain. Besides accurately predicting HIV infection, sequential appearance of specific bands of WB test offers a window of opportunity to develop a less subjective tool for monitoring disease progression.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>HIV type characterization was done in a cohort of infected pregnant women at 36 gestational weeks using WB test. Student-t test was used to determine maternal differences in mean full blood counts and viral load of mothers with and those without HIV <it>gag </it>antigen bands. Pearson Chi-square test was used to assess differences in lack of bands appearance with vertical transmission and lymphadenopathy.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Among the 64 HIV infected pregnant women, 98.4% had pure HIV-1 infection and one woman (1.7%) had dual HIV-1/HIV-2 infections. Absence of HIV pol antigen bands was associated with acute infection, p = 0.002. All women with chronic HIV-1 infection had antibody reactivity to both the HIV-1 envelope and polymerase antigens. However, antibody reactivity to gag antigens varied among the women, being 100%, 90%, 70% and 63% for p24, p17, p39 and p55, respectively. Lack of antibody reactivity to gag p39 antigen was associated with disease progression as confirmed by the presence of lymphadenopathy, anemia, higher viral load, p = 0.010, 0.025 and 0.016, respectively. Although not statistically significant, women with p39 band missing were 1.4 times more likely to transmit HIV-1 to their infants.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Absence of antibody reactivity to pol and gag p39 antigens was associated with acute infection and disease progression, respectively. Apart from its use in HIV disease diagnosis, WB test could also be used in conjunction with simpler tests like full blood counts and patient clinical assessment as a relatively cheaper disease monitoring tool required prior to accessing antiretroviral therapy for poor resource settings. However, there is also need to factor in the role of host-parasite genetics and interactions in disease progression.</p

Immunodominance of HIV-1 Specific CD8+ T-Cell Responses Is Related to Disease Progression Rate in Vertically Infected Adolescents

BACKGROUND: HIV-1 vertically infected children in the USA are living into adolescence and beyond with the widespread use of antiretroviral drugs. These patients exhibit striking differences in the rate of HIV-1 disease progression which could provide insights into mechanisms of control. We hypothesized that differences in the pattern of immunodomination including breadth, magnitude and polyfunctionality of HIV-1 specific CD8+ T cell response could partially explain differences in progression rate. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In this study, we mapped, quantified, and assessed the functionality of these responses against individual HIV-1 Gag peptides in 58 HIV-1 vertically infected adolescents. Subjects were divided into two groups depending upon the rate of disease progression: adolescents with a sustained CD4%≥25 were categorized as having no immune suppression (NS), and those with CD4%≤15 categorized as having severe immune suppression (SS). We observed differences in the area of HIV-1-Gag to which the two groups made responses. In addition, subjects who expressed the HLA- B*57 or B*42 alleles were highly likely to restrict their immunodominant response through these alleles. There was a significantly higher frequency of naïve CD8+ T cells in the NS subjects (p = 0.0066) compared to the SS subjects. In contrast, there were no statistically significant differences in any other CD8+ T cell subsets. The differentiation profiles and multifunctionality of Gag-specific CD8+ T cells, regardless of immunodominance, also failed to demonstrate meaningful differences between the two groups. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Together, these data suggest that, at least in vertically infected adolescents, the region of HIV-1-Gag targeted by CD8+ T cells and the magnitude of that response relative to other responses may have more importance on the rate of disease progression than their qualitative effector functions

Comparison of PfHRP-2/pLDH ELISA, qPCR and microscopy for the detection of Plasmodium events and prediction of sick visits during a malaria vaccine study.

BACKGROUND: Compared to expert malaria microscopy, malaria biomarkers such as Plasmodium falciparum histidine rich protein-2 (PfHRP-2), and PCR provide superior analytical sensitivity and specificity for quantifying malaria parasites infections. This study reports on parasite prevalence, sick visits parasite density and species composition by different diagnostic methods during a phase-I malaria vaccine trial. METHODS: Blood samples for microscopy, PfHRP-2 and Plasmodium lactate dehydrogenase (pLDH) ELISAs and real time quantitative PCR (qPCR) were collected during scheduled (n = 298) or sick visits (n = 38) from 30 adults participating in a 112-day vaccine trial. The four methods were used to assess parasite prevalence, as well as parasite density over a 42-day period for patients with clinical episodes. RESULTS: During scheduled visits, qPCR (39.9%, N = 119) and PfHRP-2 ELISA (36.9%, N = 110) detected higher parasite prevalence than pLDH ELISA (16.8%, N = 50) and all methods were more sensitive than microscopy (13.4%, N = 40). All microscopically detected infections contained P. falciparum, as mono-infections (95%) or with P. malariae (5%). By qPCR, 102/119 infections were speciated. P. falciparum predominated either as monoinfections (71.6%), with P. malariae (8.8%), P. ovale (4.9%) or both (3.9%). P. malariae (6.9%) and P. ovale (1.0%) also occurred as co-infections (2.9%). As expected, higher prevalences were detected during sick visits, with prevalences of 65.8% (qPCR), 60.5% (PfHRP-2 ELISA), 21.1% (pLDH ELISA) and 31.6% (microscopy). PfHRP-2 showed biomass build-up that climaxed (1813±3410 ng/mL SD) at clinical episodes. CONCLUSION: PfHRP-2 ELISA and qPCR may be needed for accurately quantifying the malaria parasite burden. In addition, qPCR improves parasite speciation, whilst PfHRP-2 ELISA is a potential predictor for clinical disease caused by P. falciparum. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00666380