Disagreement, equal weight and commutativity

How should we respond to cases of disagreement where two epistemic agents have the same evidence but come to different conclusions? Adam Elga has provided a Bayesian framework for addressing this question. In this paper, I shall highlight two unfortunate consequences of this framework, which Elga does not anticipate. Both problems derive from a failure of commutativity between application of the equal weight view and updating in the light of other evidence

Perceptions of COVID-19's impact on outdoor tourism in the Peneda-Gerês National Park

Numa altura em que o Mundo é afetado por uma pandemia e as medidas de proteção passam pelo distanciamento social, higienização e desinfeção de espaços e equipamentos, o setor do turismo está exposto a inúmeros obstáculos. A insegurança causada pela pandemia afetou os indicadores do turismo um pouco por todo o Mundo, tornando, portanto, premente a necessidade de aferir o impacto efetivo da COVID-19 no setor do turismo bem como no turismo outdoor, especificamente no Parque Nacional da Peneda Gerês (PNPG), na região da Serra do Gerês. Foi elaborado um estudo de natureza exploratória constituído por análise documental e entrevistas a agentes conhecedores das dinâmicas do PNPG, relativamente à prática de turismo outdoor. Os resultados provenientes do presente estudo apontam para um aumento do número de visitantes do Parque nos meses de verão, sobretudo portugueses, fator este justificável pelas limitações em viajar para o estrangeiro. Devido ao cancelamento de eventos de atividades outdoor, o número de visitantes diminuiu significativamente, sobretudo nos meses de época baixa, contribuindo para o aumento da sazonalidade. Por outro lado, nos meses de época alta, verificou-se que o número de participantes em atividades de turismo outdoor operadas pelas empresas de animação turística aumentou relativamente ao período homólogo do ano anterior.At a time when the world is a ected by a pandemic and protection measures include social distance, sanitation and disinfection of spaces and equipment, the tourism sector is exposed to numerous obstacles. Insecurity caused by the pandemic has a ected tourism indicators all over the world, thus making the need to assess the e ective impact of COVID-19 in the tourism sector as well as in outdoor tourism, speci cally in the Peneda Gerês National Park (PGNP), in Gerês mountain range. An exploratory study was carried out, consisting of documentary analysis and interviews to agents who know the dynamics of the PGNP, in relation to the practice of outdoor tourism. The results from the present study point to an increase in the number of visitors to the Park in the summer months, especially Portuguese, which was to be expected in view of the limitations in traveling abroad. Due to the cancellation of outdoor activities events, the number of visitors decreased signi cantly, especially in the low season months, contributing to the increase in seasonality. On the other hand, in the high season months, it was found that the number of participants in outdoor tourism activities operated by tourist entertainment companies increased compared to the same period of the previous yearinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Sisi Gelap Demokrasi: Kekerasan Masyarakat Madani di Indonesia

Salah satu capaian penting reformasi di Indonesia adalah tumbuhnya masyarakat madani (civil society) yang kuat. Namun, beberapa di antara organisasi masyarakat madani yang paling efektif dewasa ini justru adalah kelompok-kelompok Islamis garis-keras yang mendakwahkan intoleransi dan menyebarluaskan kebencian. Di beberapa wilayah, seperti Jawa Barat dan seputar Jakarta, organisasi-organisasi ini terbukti amat memengaruhi agenda kebijakan publik, dengan mendesak pemerintah—baik di tingkat lokal maupun nasional—untuk menerapkan pandangan mereka mengenai moralitas dan pemahaman mereka mengenai ortodoksi. Meskipun mengusung agenda-agenda yang antidemokrasi, semua organisasi di atas justru memanfaatkan ruang-ruang bebas yang disediakan demokrasi. Pertanyaannya, apakah organisasi-organisasi itu tumbuh berjalan seiring dengan meningkatnya konservatisme sosial masyakarat Indonesia, atau karena koneksi-koneksi politik tingkat tinggi yang kuat? Mengapa mereka tampak lebih efektif dalam advokasi mereka dibanding organisasi-organisasi lainnya? Bagaimana demokrasi mengatasi kekuatan-kekuatan anti-demokrasi yang menggerogotinya itu? Bermula dari Nurcholish Madjid Memorial Lecture (NMML) VII (2013), di buku ini Sidney Jones menjawab pertanyaan-pertanyaan di atas dari perspektif teori gerakan sosial. Dia juga mengevaluasi berbagai tawaran yang sudah diajukan untuk “mengatasi” organisasi-organisasi di atas dan memperkuat pluralisme seperti yang pernah disuarakan almarhum Nurcholish Madjid. Aspek-aspek tersebut dibahas lebih lanjut dari berbagai sudut pandang oleh para penanggapnya: Elga Sarapung, M. Najib Azca, Jeremy Menchik, Sana Jaffrey, Titik Firawati, dan Zainal Abidin Bagir. Semuanya menyajikan persoalan dan tantangan yang tidak mudah, namun tetap menjaga harapan akan Perubahan dan perbaikan demokrasi dan masyarakat madani. Buku ini perlu dibaca oleh para pengambil kebijakan, akademisi, aktivis sosial dan siapa pun yang merasa peduli dengan masa depan demokrasi Indonesia

Diurnal Differences in Immune Response in Brain, Blood and Spleen After Focal Cerebral Ischemia in Mice.

BACKGROUND The immune response to acute cerebral ischemia is a major factor in stroke pathobiology. Circadian biology modulates some aspects of immune response. The goal of this study is to compare key parameters of immune response during the active/awake phase versus inactive/sleep phase in a mouse model of transient focal cerebral ischemia. METHODS Mice were housed in normal or reversed light cycle rooms for 3 weeks, and then they were blindly subjected to transient focal cerebral ischemia. Flow cytometry was used to examine immune responses in blood, spleen, and brain at 3 days after ischemic onset. RESULTS In blood, there were higher levels of circulating T cells in mice subjected to focal ischemia during zeitgeber time (ZT)1-3 (inactive or sleep phase) versus ZT13-15 mice (active or awake phase). In the spleen, organ weight and immune cell numbers were lower in ZT1-3 versus ZT13-15 mice. Consistent with these results, there was an increased infiltration of activated T cells into brain at ZT1-3 compared with ZT13-15. CONCLUSIONS This proof-of-concept study indicates that there are significant diurnal effects on the immune response after focal cerebral ischemia in mice. Hence, therapeutic strategies focused on immune targets should be reassessed to account for the effects of diurnal rhythms and circadian biology in nocturnal rodent models of stroke.Supported in part by the Rappaport Foundation and Leducq Foundation. The authors thank all team members of the MGH animal facility for help with light schedule switching.S

The stubborn non-probabilist : "negation incoherence" and a new way to block the Dutch Book argument

We rigorously specify the class of nonprobabilistic agents which are, we argue, immune to the classical Dutch Book argument. We also discuss the notion of expected value used in the argument as well as sketch future research connecting our results to those concerning incoherence measures

Traditional alimentary products: purchase habits and honey consumption

Este estudo tem como objectivos conhecer o perfil do consumidor do mel e descrever os seus hábitos de consumo e compra. Foi elaborado um estudo quantitativo que teve como base a construção de um questionário, que foi aplicado a 172 indivíduos do Distrito de Bragança. Através da análise descritiva dos dados faz-se a caracterização da amostra e descrevem-se os hábitos de consumo e compra do mel. Participaram neste estudo 172 indivíduos, dos quais 41,9% são do sexo masculino e 58,1% são do sexo feminino. Verificou-se que a esmagadora maioria é consumidor de mel (94,8%), prefere o mel da região porque está mais disponível, é mais saboroso e tem qualidade (70,9%). A principal forma de utilização do mel é combinado com outros alimentos (60,5%), o local preferido para a sua compra é junto do produtor (51,7%) e o factor que mais pesa na decisão de compra é o paladar (52,3%). To determine the honey consumer’s profile and to describe your purchase and consume habits are the objectives of this study. A cross-sectional survey was carried out in a probabilistic sample including 172 individuals of the Braganza region population. After, data descriptive analyses is done characterization of the sample and are described purchase and consume habits of the inquiry. In this study participated 172 individuals, of which 41,9% are male and 58,1% are female. It was verified that the smashing majority is honey consumer (94,8%), they prefer the national honey because it is more available, it is tastier, it is quality and it is trustworthy (70,9%). The main form honey use is mixed with other foods (60,5%), the favorite place for the honey purchase is near the producer (51,7%) and the factor that more it weighs in the purchase decision this product is the palate (52,3%)

Salud y medio ambiente

Erradicación microbasurales y difusión de cultura de entornoFloraciones algales nocivas (FAN): ¿Cómo se vigilan y controlan las intoxicaciones en Chile?Medioambiente y salud en el pregrado: desafío pendienteNiveles de dioxinas y furanos en leche matern

Years of life that could be saved from prevention of hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) causes premature death and loss of life expectancy worldwide. Its primary and secondary prevention can result in a significant number of years of life saved. AIM: To assess how many years of life are lost after HCC diagnosis. METHODS: Data from 5346 patients with first HCC diagnosis were used to estimate lifespan and number of years of life lost after tumour onset, using a semi-parametric extrapolation having as reference an age-, sex- and year-of-onset-matched population derived from national life tables. RESULTS: Between 1986 and 2014, HCC lead to an average of 11.5 years-of-life lost for each patient. The youngest age-quartile group (18-61 years) had the highest number of years-of-life lost, representing approximately 41% of the overall benefit obtainable from prevention. Advancements in HCC management have progressively reduced the number of years-of-life lost from 12.6 years in 1986-1999, to 10.7 in 2000-2006 and 7.4 years in 2007-2014. Currently, an HCC diagnosis when a single tumour <2 cm results in 3.7 years-of-life lost while the diagnosis when a single tumour 65 2 cm or 2/3 nodules still within the Milan criteria, results in 5.0 years-of-life lost, representing the loss of only approximately 5.5% and 7.2%, respectively, of the entire lifespan from birth. CONCLUSIONS: Hepatocellular carcinoma occurrence results in the loss of a considerable number of years-of-life, especially for younger patients. In recent years, the increased possibility of effectively treating this tumour has improved life expectancy, thus reducing years-of-life lost