An International Perspective on Chronic Multimorbidity: Approaching the Elephant in the Room

Multimorbidity is a common and burdensome condition that may affect quality of life, increase medical needs, and make people live more years of life with disability. Negative outcomes related to multimorbidity occur beyond what we would expect from the summed effect of single conditions, as chronic diseases interact with each other, mutually enhancing their negative effects, and eventually leading to new clinical phenotypes. Moreover, multimorbidity mirrors an accelerated global susceptibility and a loss of resilience, which are both hallmarks of aging. Due to the complexity of its assessment and definition, and the lack of clear evidence steering its management, multimorbidity represents one of the main current challenges for clinicians, researchers, and policymakers. The authors of this article recently reflected on these issues during two twin international symposia at the 2016 European Union Geriatric Medicine Society (EUGMS) meeting in Lisbon, Portugal, and the 2016 Gerontological Society of America (GSA) meeting in New Orleans, USA. The present work summarizes the most relevant aspects related to multimorbidity, with the ultimate goal to identify knowledge gaps and suggest future directions to approach this condition

The impact of different strategies to handle missing data on both precision and bias in a drug safety study: a multidatabase multinational population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND: Missing data are often an issue in electronic medical records (EMRs) research. However, there are many ways that people deal with missing data in drug safety studies. AIM: To compare the risk estimates resulting from different strategies for the handling of missing data in the study of venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk associated with antiosteoporotic medications (AOM). METHODS: New users of AOM (alendronic acid, other bisphosphonates, strontium ranelate, selective estrogen receptor modulators, teriparatide, or denosumab) aged ≥50 years during 1998–2014 were identified in two Spanish (the Base de datos para la Investigación Farmacoepidemiológica en Atención Primaria [BIFAP] and EpiChron cohort) and one UK (Clinical Practice Research Datalink [CPRD]) EMR. Hazard ratios (HRs) according to AOM (with alendronic acid as reference) were calculated adjusting for VTE risk factors, body mass index (that was missing in 61% of patients included in the three databases), and smoking (that was missing in 23% of patients) in the year of AOM therapy initiation. HRs and standard errors obtained using cross-sectional multiple imputation (MI) (reference method) were compared to complete case (CC) analysis – using only patients with complete data – and longitudinal MI – adding to the cross-sectional MI model the body mass index/smoking values as recorded in the year before and after therapy initiation. RESULTS: Overall, 422/95,057 (0.4%), 19/12,688 (0.1%), and 2,051/161,202 (1.3%) VTE cases/participants were seen in BIFAP, EpiChron, and CPRD, respectively. HRs moved from 100.00% underestimation to 40.31% overestimation in CC compared with cross-sectional MI, while longitudinal MI methods provided similar risk estimates compared with cross-sectional MI. Precision for HR improved in cross-sectional MI versus CC by up to 160.28%, while longitudinal MI improved precision (compared with cross-sectional) only minimally (up to 0.80%). CONCLUSIONS: CC may substantially affect relative risk estimation in EMR-based drug safety studies, since missing data are not often completely at random. Little improvement was seen in these data in terms of power with the inclusion of longitudinal MI compared with cross-sectional MI. The strategy for handling missing data in drug safety studies can have a large impact on both risk estimates and precision

Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) as a disease of early aging: Evidence from the EpiChron Cohort

Background Aging is an important risk factor for most chronic diseases. Patients with COPD develop more comorbidities than non-COPD subjects. We hypothesized that the development of comorbidities characteristically affecting the elderly occur at an earlier age in subjects with the diagnosis of COPD. Methods and findings We included all subjects carrying the diagnosis of COPD (n = 27, 617), and a similar number of age and sex matched individuals without the diagnosis, extracted from the 727, 241 records of individuals 40 years and older included in the EpiChron Cohort (Aragon, Spain). We compared the cumulative number of comorbidities, their prevalence and the mortality risk between both groups. Using network analysis, we explored the connectivity between comorbidities and the most influential comorbidities in both groups. We divided the groups into 5 incremental age categories and compared their comorbidity networks. We then selected those comorbidities known to affect primarily the elderly and compared their prevalence across the 5 age groups. In addition, we replicated the analysis in the smokers'' subgroup to correct for the confounding effect of cigarette smoking. Subjects with COPD had more comorbidities and died at a younger age compared to controls. Comparison of both cohorts across 5 incremental age groups showed that the number of comorbidities, the prevalence of diseases characteristic of aging and network''s density for the COPD group aged 56-65 were similar to those of non-COPD 15 to 20 years older. The findings persisted after adjusting for smoking. Conclusion Multimorbidity increases with age but in patients carrying the diagnosis of COPD, these comorbidities are seen at an earlier age

Improving outcomes for people with COPD by developing networks of general practices: evaluation of a quality improvement project in east London

BACKGROUND: Structured care for people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) can improve outcomes. Delivering care in a deprived ethnically diverse area can prove challenging. AIMS: Evaluation of a system change to enhance COPD care delivery in a primary care setting between 2010 and 2013 using observational data. METHODS: All 36 practices in one inner London primary care trust were grouped geographically into eight networks of 4-5 practices, each supported by a network manager, clerical staff and an educational budget. A multidisciplinary group, including a respiratory specialist and the community respiratory team, developed a 'care package' for COPD management, with financial incentives based on network achievements of clinical targets and supported case management and education. Monthly electronic dashboards enabled networks to track and improve performance. RESULTS: The size of network COPD registers increased by 10% in the first year. Between 2010 and 2013 completed care plans increased from 53 to 86.5%, pulmonary rehabilitation referrals rose from 45 to 70% and rates of flu immunisation from 81 to 83%, exceeding London and England figures. Hospital admissions decreased in Tower Hamlets from a historic high base. CONCLUSIONS: Investment of financial, organisational and educational resource into general practice networks was associated with clinically important improvements in COPD care in socially deprived, ethnically diverse communities. Key behaviour change included the following: collaborative working between practices driven by high-quality information to support performance review; shared financial incentives; and engagement between primary and secondary care clinicians

Potentially inappropriate medication in older participants of the Berlin Aging Study II (BASE-II) - Sex differences and associations with morbidity and medication use

INTRODUCTION: Multimorbidity in advanced age and the need for drug treatment may lead to polypharmacy, while pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic changes may increase the risk of adverse drug events (ADEs). OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to determine the proportion of subjects using potentially inappropriate medication (PIM) in a cohort of older and predominantly healthy adults in relation to polypharmacy and morbidity. METHODS: Cross-sectional data were available from 1,382 study participants (median age 69 years, IQR 67-71, 51.3% females) of the Berlin Aging Study II (BASE-II). PIM was classified according to the EU(7)-PIM and German PRISCUS (representing a subset of the former) list. Polypharmacy was defined as the concomitant use of at least five drugs. A morbidity index (MI) largely based on the Charlson Index was applied to evaluate the morbidity burden. RESULTS: Overall, 24.1% of the participants were affected by polypharmacy. On average, men used 2 (IQR 1-4) and women 3 drugs (IQR 1-5). According to PRISCUS and EU(7)-PIM, 5.9% and 22.6% of participants received at least one PIM, while use was significantly more prevalent in females (25.5%) compared to males (19.6%) considering EU(7)-PIM (p = 0.01). In addition, morbidity in males receiving PIM according to EU(7)-PIM was higher (median MI 1, IQR 1-3) compared to males without PIM use (median MI 1, IQR 0-2, p<0.001). CONCLUSION: PIM use occurred more frequently in women than in men, while it was associated with higher morbidity in males. As expected, EU(7)-PIM identifies more subjects as PIM users than the PRISCUS list but further studies are needed to investigate the differential impact of both lists on ADEs and outcome. KEY POINTS: We found PIM use to be associated with a higher number of regular medications and with increased morbidity. Additionally, we detected a higher prevalence of PIM use in females compared to males, suggesting that women and people needing intensive drug treatment are patient groups, who are particularly affected by PIM use

Preventive drugs in the last year of life of older adults with cancer: Is there room for deprescribing?

BACKGROUND: The continuation of preventive drugs among older patients with advanced cancer has come under scrutiny because these drugs are unlikely to achieve their clinical benefit during the patients' remaining lifespan. METHODS: A nationwide cohort study of older adults (those aged ≥65 years) with solid tumors who died between 2007 and 2013 was performed in Sweden, using routinely collected data with record linkage. The authors calculated the monthly use and cost of preventive drugs throughout the last year before the patients' death. RESULTS: Among 151,201 older persons who died with cancer (mean age, 81.3 years [standard deviation, 8.1 years]), the average number of drugs increased from 6.9 to 10.1 over the course of the last year before death. Preventive drugs frequently were continued until the final month of life, including antihypertensives, platelet aggregation inhibitors, anticoagulants, statins, and oral antidiabetics. Median drug costs amounted to $1482 (interquartile range [IQR],$700-$2896]) per person, including$213 (IQR, $77-$490) for preventive therapies. Compared with older adults who died with lung cancer (median drug cost, $205; IQR,$61-$523), costs for preventive drugs were higher among older adults who died with pancreatic cancer (adjusted median difference,$13; 95% confidence interval, $5-$22) or gynecological cancers (adjusted median difference, $27; 95$18-$36). There was no decrease noted with regard to the cost of preventive drugs throughout the last year of life. CONCLUSIONS: Preventive drugs commonly are prescribed during the last year of life among older adults with cancer, and often are continued until the final weeks before death. Adequate deprescribing strategies are warranted to reduce the burden of drugs with limited clinical benefit near the end of life

Associations between Extending Access to Primary Care and Emergency Department Visits: A Difference-In-Differences Analysis

Background: Health services across the world increasingly face pressures on the use of expensive hospital services. Better organisation and delivery of primary care has the potential to manage demand and reduce costs for hospital services, but routine primary care services are not open during evenings and weekends. Extended access (evening and weekend opening) is hypothesized to reduce pressure on hospital services from emergency department visits. However, the existing evidence-base is weak, largely focused on emergency out-of-hours services, and analysed using a before-and after-methodology without effective comparators. Methods and Findings: Throughout 2014, 56 primary care practices (346,024 patients) in Greater Manchester, England, offered 7-day extended access, compared with 469 primary care practices (2,596,330 patients) providing routine access. Extended access included evening and weekend opening and served both urgent and routine appointments. To assess the effects of extended primary care access on hospital services, we apply a difference-in-differences analysis using hospital administrative data from 2011 to 2014. Propensity score matching techniques were used to match practices without extended access to practices with extended access. Differences in the change in “minor” patient-initiated emergency department visits per 1,000 population were compared between practices with and without extended access. Populations registered to primary care practices with extended access demonstrated a 26.4% relative reduction (compared to practices without extended access) in patient-initiated emergency department visits for “minor” problems (95% CI -38.6% to -14.2%, absolute difference: -10,933 per year, 95% CI -15,995 to -5,866), and a 26.6% (95% CI -39.2% to -14.1%) relative reduction in costs of patient-initiated visits to emergency departments for minor problems (absolute difference: -£767,976, -£1,130,767 to -£405,184). There was an insignificant relative reduction of 3.1% in total emergency department visits (95% CI -6.4% to 0.2%). Our results were robust to several sensitivity checks. A lack of detailed cost reporting of the running costs of extended access and an inability to capture health outcomes and other health service impacts constrain the study from assessing the full cost-effectiveness of extended access to primary care. Conclusions: The study found that extending access was associated with a reduction in emergency department visits in the first 12 months. The results of the research have already informed the decision by National Health Service England to extend primary care access across Greater Manchester from 2016. However, further evidence is needed to understand whether extending primary care access is cost-effective and sustainable

Comparison of Rx-defined morbidity groups and diagnosis- based risk adjusters for predicting healthcare costs in Taiwan

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Medication claims are commonly used to calculate the risk adjustment for measuring healthcare cost. The Rx-defined Morbidity Groups (Rx-MG) which combine the use of medication to indicate morbidity have been incorporated into the Adjusted Clinical Groups (ACG) Case Mix System, developed by the Johns Hopkins University. This study aims to verify that the Rx-MG can be used for adjusting risk and for explaining the variations in the healthcare cost in Taiwan.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The Longitudinal Health Insurance Database 2005 (LHID2005) was used in this study. The year 2006 was chosen as the baseline to predict healthcare cost (medication and total cost) in 2007. The final sample size amounted to 793 239 (81%) enrolees, and excluded any cases with discontinued enrolment. Two different kinds of models were built to predict cost: the concurrent model and the prospective model. The predictors used in the predictive models included age, gender, Aggregated Diagnosis Groups (ADG, diagnosis- defined morbidity groups), and Rx-defined Morbidity Groups. Multivariate OLS regression was used in the cost prediction modelling.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The concurrent model adjusted for Rx-defined Morbidity Groups for total cost, and controlled for age and gender had a better predictive R-square = 0.618, compared to the model adjusted for ADGs (R²= 0.411). The model combined with Rx-MGs and ADGs performed the best for concurrently predicting total cost (R²= 0.650). For prospectively predicting total cost, the model combined Rx-MGs and ADGs (R²= 0.382) performed better than the models adjusted by Rx-MGs (R²= 0.360) or ADGs (R²= 0.252) only. Similarly, the concurrent model adjusted for Rx-MGs predicting pharmacy cost had a better performance (R-square = 0.615), than the model adjusted for ADGs (R²= 0.431). The model combined with Rx-MGs and ADGs performed the best in concurrently as well as prospectively predicting pharmacy cost (R²= 0.638 and 0.505, respectively). The prospective models showed a remarkable improvement when adjusted by prior cost.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The medication-based Rx-Defined Morbidity Groups was useful in predicting pharmacy cost as well as total cost in Taiwan. Combining the information on medication and diagnosis as adjusters could arguably be the best method for explaining variations in healthcare cost.</p

Management of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in India: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVES: Chronic diseases are fast becoming the largest health burden in India. Despite this, their management in India has not been well studied. We aimed to systematically review the nature and efficacy of current management strategies for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in India. METHODS: We used database searches (MEDLINE, EMBASE, IndMED, CENTRAL and CINAHL), journal hand-searches, scanning of reference lists and contact with experts to identify studies for systematic review. We did not review management strategies aimed at chronic diseases more generally, nor management of acute exacerbations. Due to the heterogeneity of reviewed studies, meta-analysis was not appropriate. Thus, narrative methods were used. SETTING: India. PARTICIPANTS: All adult populations resident in India. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: 1. Trialled interventions and outcomes 2. Extent and efficacy of current management strategies 3. Above outcomes by subgroup. RESULTS: We found information regarding current management - particularly regarding the implementation of national guidelines and primary prevention - to be minimal. This led to difficulty in interpreting studies of management strategies, which were varied and generally of positive effect. Data regarding current management outcomes were very few. CONCLUSIONS: The current understanding of management strategies for COPD in India is limited due to a lack of published data. Determination of the extent of current use of management guidelines, availability and use of treatment, and current primary prevention strategies would be useful. This would also provide evidence on which to interpret existing and future studies of management outcomes and novel interventions