Assessing the impact of a cattle risk-based trading scheme on the movement of bovine tuberculosis infected animals in England and Wales

The adoption of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) risk-based trading (RBT) schemes has the potential to reduce the risk of bTB spread. However, any scheme will have cost implications that need to be balanced against its likely success in reducing bTB. This paper describes the first stochastic quantitative model assessing the impact of the implementation of a cattle risk-based trading scheme to inform policy makers and contribute to cost–benefit analyses. A risk assessment for England and Wales was developed to estimate the number of infected cattle traded using historic movement data recorded between July 2010 and June 2011. Three scenarios were implemented: cattle traded with no RBT scheme in place, voluntary provision of the score and a compulsory, statutory scheme applying a bTB risk score to each farm. For each scenario, changes in trade were estimated due to provision of the risk score to potential purchasers. An estimated mean of 3981 bTB infected animals were sold to purchasers with no RBT scheme in place in one year, with 90% confidence the true value was between 2775 and 5288. This result is dependent on the estimated between herd prevalence used in the risk assessment which is uncertain. With the voluntary provision of the risk score by farmers, on average, 17% of movements was affected (purchaser did not wish to buy once the risk score was available), with a reduction of 23% in infected animals being purchased initially. The compulsory provision of the risk score in a statutory scheme resulted in an estimated mean change to 26% of movements, with a reduction of 37% in infected animals being purchased initially, increasing to a 53% reduction in infected movements from higher risk sellers (score 4 and 5). The estimated mean reduction in infected animals being purchased could be improved to 45% given a 10% reduction in risky purchase behaviour by farmers which may be achieved through education programmes, or to an estimated mean of 49% if a rule was implemented preventing farmers from the purchase of animals of higher risk than their own herd. Given voluntary trials currently taking place of a trading scheme, recommendations for future work include the monitoring of initial uptake and changes in the purchase patterns of farmers. Such data could be used to update the risk assessment to reduce uncertainty associated with model estimates

Spatio-temporal and risk factor analysis of alleles related to Scrapie resistance in sheep in Great Britain before, during and after a national breeding program

Certain genotypes of sheep have been identified to increase their susceptibility (the VRQ allele) or resistance (the ARR allele) to classical scrapie. This study’s aim was to assess the spatio-temporal pattern of the ARR and VRQ alleles in GB and to explore the risk factors associated to their presence. Data was collected from the GB scrapie active surveillance program, the sheep and goat inventory survey (GB census survey) and the agricultural survey for the period 2002-2015. Spatio-temporal trends of genotypes were assessed through the use of choropleth maps, spatial cluster and linear regression analyses. Multivariable mix-effect logistic regression analyses were performed to investigate the association between the resistant or susceptible genotypes, and breeds, farm purpose, animal purpose, surveillance stream, country location and herd size. The results show a significant upward trend in the frequency of most resistant ARR alleles (1.15% per year, 95%CI: 0.76-1.53) and significant downward trend of most susceptible VRQ alleles (-0.40% per year; 95%CI: -0.69 to -0.10]. The trend continues after the termination of the national scrapie plan in 2009. Breeds such as Herdwick (OR = 0,26; 95%CI: 0.14-0.46), Shetland (OR = 0.22; 95%CI: 0.13-0.39), Swaledale (OR = 0.58; 95%CI: 0.47-0.73), Scottish blackface (OR = 0.54; 95%CI: 0.41-0.71) and Welsh Montain (OR: 0.59; 95%CI: 0.44-0.79) were identified with lower odds ratios of having the resistant ARR allele, while Beulah speckled face (OR = 1.58; 95%CI: 1.04-2.41), Jacob (OR = 2.91; 95%CI: 1.33-6.40), Lleyn (OR = 2.94; 95%CI: 1.28-6.74) and Suffolk (OR = 2.19; 95%CI: 1.69-2.84) had higher odds ratios of having the ARR allele. Other risk factors associated to presence of ARR allele were finishing farms (OR = 1.15; 95%CI: 1.06-1.24) and farms in Scotland (OR = 0,78; 95%CI: 0.73-0.83) and in Lowland grazing areas (OR = 1.53; 95%CI: 1.39-1.67). Factors associated with presence the VRQ genotype were farms in Scotland (OR = 0,85; 95%CI: 0.77-0.93) and breeds such as Herdwick (OR = 2.2; 95%CI: 1.08-4.97), Shetland (OR = 4.12; 95%CI: 2.20-7.73) and Sweledale (OR = 1.51; 95%CI: 1.10-2.09). For the most resistant genotype, two significant spatial clusters were identified: a high-risk cluster in the south-west of GB (RR = 1.51, p < 0.001) and a low-risk cluster in northern GB (RR = 0.65, p < 0.001). For the most susceptible genotypes, one significant high-risk cluster was identified in Wales (RR = 2.89 and p = 0.013). Surveillance for classical scrapie could be improved with a risk-based approach by focussing on those areas and farm types identified to have higher frequency of VRQ alleles and less frequency of ARR alleles. Scrapie control strategies could focus on developing breeding programs on farms with Shetland, Herdwick and Swaledale breeds

Trunk Sway Measures of Postural Stability During Clinical Balance Tests: Effects of Age

Background. The major disadvantage of current clinical tests that screen for balance disorders is a reliance on an examiner's subjective assessment of equilibrium control. To overcome this disadvantage we investigated, using quantified measures of trunk sway, age-related differences of normal subjects for commonly used clinical balance tests. Methods. Three age groups were tested: young (15-25 years; n = 48), middle-aged (45-55 years; n = 50) and elderly (65-75 years; n = 49). Each subject performed a series of fourteen tasks similar to those included in the Tinetti and Clinical Test of Sensory Interaction in Balance protocols. The test battery comprised stance and gait tasks performed under normal, altered visual (eyes closed), and altered proprioceptive (foam support surface) conditions. Quantification of trunk sway was performed using a system that measured trunk angular velocity and position in the roll (lateral) and pitch (fore-aft) planes at the level of the lower back. Ranges of sway amplitude and velocity were examined for age-differences with ANOVA techniques. Results. A comparison between age groups showed several differences. Elderly subjects were distinguished from both middle-aged and young subjects by the range of trunk angular sway and angular velocity because both were greater in roll and pitch planes for stance and stance-related tasks (tandem walking). The most significant age group differences (F = 30, p < .0001) were found for standing on one leg on a normal floor or on a foam support surface with eyes open. Next in significance was walking eight tandem steps on a normal floor (F = 13, p < .0001). For gait tasks, such as walking five steps while rotating or pitching the head or with eyes closed, pitch and roll velocity ranges were influenced by age with middle-aged subjects showing the smallest ranges followed by elderly subjects and then young subjects (F = 12, p < .0001). Walking over a set of low barriers also yielded significant differences between age groups for duration and angular sway. In contrast, task duration was the only variable significantly influenced when walking up and down a set of stairs. An interesting finding for all tasks was the different spread of values for each population. Population distributions were skewed for all ages and broadened with age. Conclusions. Accurate measurement of trunk angular sway during stance and gait tasks provides a simple way of reliably measuring changes in balance stability with age and could prove useful when screening for balance disorders of those prone to fal

Is fall prevention by vitamin D mediated by a change in postural or dynamic balance?

Introduction: The objectives were:(1) to validate a quantitative balance assessment method for fall risk prediction; (2) to investigate whether the effect of vitamin D and calcium on the risk of falling is mediated through postural or dynamic balance, as assessed by this method. Materials and methods: A secondary analysis of a double blind randomized controlled trial was employed, which included 64 institutionalized elderly women with complete balance assessment (age range: 65-97; mean 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels: 16.4ng/ml (SD ±9.9). Participants received 1,200mg calcium plus 800IU cholecalciferol (n=33) or 1,200mg calcium (n=31) per day over a 3-month treatment period. Using an electronic device attached to the lower back of the participant, balance was assessed as the degree of trunk angular displacement and angular velocity during a postural task (standing on two legs, eyes open, for 20 s) and a dynamic task (get up from a standard height chair with arm rests, sit down and then stand up again and remain standing). Results: It was found that both postural and dynamic balance independently and significantly predicted the rate of falling within the 3-month follow-up. Vitamin D plus calcium reduced the rate of falls by 60% [relative risk (RR)=0.40; 95% CI: 0.17, 0.94] if compared with calcium alone. Once postural and dynamic balance were added to the regression analysis, they both attenuated the effect of vitamin D plus calcium on the rate of falls. For postural balance, the RR changed by 22% from 0.40 to 0.62 if angular displacement was added to the model, and by 9% from 0.40 to 0.49 if angular velocity was added. For dynamic balance, it changed by 1% from 0.40 to 0.41 if angular displacement was added, and by 14% from 0.40 to 0.54 if angular velocity was added. Discussion: Thus, balance assessment using trunk angular displacement is a valid method for the prediction of falls in older women. Of the observed 60% reduction in the rate of falls by vitamin D plus calcium supplementation compared with calcium alone, up to 22% of the treatment effect was explained by a change in postural balance and up to 14% by dynamic balanc

Using network analysis to identify seasonal patterns and key nodes for risk-based surveillance of pig diseases in Italy

The description of the pattern of livestock movements between herds provides essential information for both improving risk-based surveillance and to understand the likely spread of infectious diseases. This study provides a description of the temporal pattern of pig movements recorded in Italy on a 4-year period (2013–2016). Data, provided by the National Livestock registry, were described by social network analysis and the application of a walk-trap algorithm for community detection. Our results show a highly populated community located in Northern Italy, which is the focal point of the Italian industrial pig production and as a general pattern an overall decline of medium and backyard farms and an increase in the number of large farms, in agreement with the trend observed by other EU pig-producing countries. A seasonal pattern of all the parameters evaluated, including the number of active nodes in both the intensive and smaller production systems, emerged: that is characterized by a higher number of movements in spring and autumn, linked with the breeding and production cycle as pigs moved from the growing to the finishing phase and with periods of increased slaughtering at Christmas and Easter. The same pattern was found when restricting the analysis to imported pig batches. Outbreaks occurring during these periods would have a greater impact on the spread of infectious diseases; therefore, targeted surveillance may be appropriate. Finally, potential super-spreader nodes have been identified and represent 0.47% of the total number of pig holdings (n = 477). Those nodes are present during the whole study period with a similar ranking in their potential of being super-spreaders. Most of them were in Northern Italy, but super-spreaders with high mean out-degree centrality were also located in other Regions. Seasonality, communities and super-spreaders should be considered when planning surveillance activity and when applying disease control strategies

Mouse Regenerating Myofibers Detected as False-Positive Donor Myofibers with Anti-Human Spectrin

Stem cell transplantation is being tested as a potential therapy for a number of diseases. Stem cells isolated directly from tissue specimens or generated via reprogramming of differentiated cells require rigorous testing for both safety and efficacy in preclinical models. The availability of mice with immune-deficient background that carry additional mutations in specific genes facilitates testing the efficacy of cell transplantation in disease models. The muscular dystrophies are a heterogeneous group of disorders, of which Duchenne muscular dystrophy is the most severe and common type. Cell-based therapy for muscular dystrophy has been under investigation for several decades, with a wide selection of cell types being studied, including tissue-specific stem cells and reprogrammed stem cells. Several immune-deficient mouse models of muscular dystrophy have been generated, in which human cells obtained from various sources are injected to assess their preclinical potential. After transplantation, the presence of engrafted human cells is detected via immunofluorescence staining, using antibodies that recognize human, but not mouse, proteins. Here we show that one antibody specific to human spectrin, which is commonly used to evaluate the efficacy of transplanted human cells in mouse muscle, detects myofibers in muscles of NOD/Rag1nullmdx5cv, NOD/LtSz-scid IL2Rγnull mice, or mdx nude mice, irrespective of whether they were injected with human cells. These “reactive” clusters are regenerating myofibers, which are normally present in dystrophic tissue and the spectrin antibody is likely recognizing utrophin, which contains spectrin-like repeats. Therefore, caution should be used in interpreting data based on detection of single human-specific proteins, and evaluation of human stem cell engraftment should be performed using multiple human-specific labeling strategies

Using multi-criteria risk ranking methodology to select case studies for a generic risk assessment framework for exotic disease incursion and spread through Europe

We present a novel approach of using the multi-criteria pathogen prioritisation methodology as a basis for selecting the most appropriate case studies for a generic risk assessment framework. The approach uses selective criteria to rank exotic animal health pathogens according to the likelihood of introduction and the impact of an outbreak if it occurred in the European Union (EU). Pathogens were evaluated based on their impact on production at the EU level and international trade. A subsequent analysis included criteria of relevance to quantitative risk assessment case study selection, such as the availability of data for parameterisation, the need for further research and the desire for the case studies to cover different routes of transmission. The framework demonstrated is flexible with the ability to adjust both the criteria and their weightings to the user's requirements. A web based tool has been developed using the RStudio shiny apps software, to facilitate this

Maximising data to optimise animal disease early warning systems and risk assessment tools within Europe

Timely and reliable data and information availability and sharing is essential for early warning, prevention and control of transboundary diseases. While there are a growing number of global datasets capable of providing information for use in early warning systems and risk assessment (RA) tools, there are currently time-consuming data cleansing and harmonisation activities which need to be carried out before they can be reliably used and combined. Thus, using global datasets as they stand can lead to errors in RA parameterisation and results due to inherent biases in the data, e.g. missing disease prevalence data treated as a zero may inadvertently penalise those countries which do report disease outbreaks as opposed to those countries which are affected by a pathogen but do not report outbreak data. It is therefore of great importance that data are clearly provided and easy to understand and that data providers strive for greater harmonisation of database standards. In this paper the datasets utilised in the SPARE (’Spatial risk assessment framework for assessing exotic disease incursion and spread through Europe’) project are described and discussed in terms of key criteria: accessibility, availability, completeness, consistency and quality. It is evident that most databases exist as information portals and not exclusively for RA purposes. Another striking issue from this assessment is the need for enhanced data sharing specifically with regards to data on illegal seizures, arthropod vector/wildlife abundance, intra-country livestock movement and national animal disease surveillance. It is hoped that the outcomes of this work will promote discussion and exchange between data providers, including the development of standardised data exchange protocols. The transformation of datasets to a common format is a considerable challenge but recommendations could and should be made on the standardisation of datasets and reporting in order to achieve a unified approach across Europe

Nonrigid chiral soliton for the octet and decuplet baryons

Systematic treatment of the collective rotation of the nonrigid chiral soliton is developed in the SU(3) chiral quark soliton model and applied to the octet and decuplet baryons. The strangeness degrees of freedom are treated by a simplified bound-state approach which omits the locality of the kaon wave function. Then, the flavor rotation is divided into the isospin rotation and the emission and absorption of the kaon. The kaon Hamiltonian is diagonalized by the Hartree approximation. The soliton changes the shape according to the strangeness. The baryons appear as the rotational bands of the combined system of the soliton and the kaon.Comment: 11 pages(LaTex), 1 figures(eps

Assessing the impact of tailored biosecurity advice on farmer behaviour and pathogen presence in beef herds in England and Wales

The term ‘biosecurity’ encompasses many measures farmers can take to reduce the risk of pathogen incursion or spread. As the best strategy will vary between settings, veterinarians play an important role in assessing risk and providing advice, but effectiveness requires farmer acceptance and implementation. The aim of this study was to assess the effectiveness of specifically-tailored biosecurity advice packages in reducing endemic pathogen presence on UK beef suckler farms. One hundred and sixteen farms recruited by 10 veterinary practices were followed for three years. Farms were randomly allocated to intervention (receiving specifically-tailored advice, with veterinarians and farmers collaborating to develop an improved biosecurity strategy) or control (receiving general advice) groups. A spreadsheet-based tool was used annually to attribute a score to each farm reflecting risk of entry or spread of bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV), bovine herpesvirus-1 (BHV1), Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP), Leptospira interrogans serovar hardjo (L. hardjo) and Mycobacterium bovis (M. bovis). Objectives of these analyses were to identify evidence of reduction in risk behaviours during the study, as well as evidence of reductions in pathogen presence, as indications of effectiveness. Risk behaviours and pathogen prevalences were examined across study years, and on intervention compared with control farms, using descriptive statistics and multilevel regression. There were significant reductions in risk scores for all five pathogens, regardless of intervention status, in every study year compared with the outset. Animals on intervention farms were significantly less likely than those on control farms to be seropositive for BVDV in years 2 and 3 and for L. hardjo in year 3 of the study. Variations by study year in animal-level odds of seropositivity to BHV1 or MAP were not associated with farm intervention status. All farms had significantly reduced odds of BHV1 seropositivity in year 2 than at the outset. Variations in farm-level MAP seropositivity were not associated with intervention status. There were increased odds of M. bovis on intervention farms compared with control farms at the end of the study. Results suggest a structured annual risk assessment process, conducted as a collaboration between veterinarian and farmer, is valuable in encouraging improved biosecurity practices. There were some indications, but not conclusive evidence, that tailored biosecurity advice packages have potential to reduce pathogen presence. These findings will inform development of a collaborative approach to biosecurity between veterinarians and farmers, including adoption of cost-effective strategies effective across pathogens