LARGE-SCALE EXPOSITION PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT OPTIMIZATION BASED ON VISITORS' BEHAVIOR SIMULATION:A CASE STUDY of QINGDAO INTERNATIONAL HORTICULTURAL EXPOSITION 2014

2014年青岛世园会参观人次众多,需要对参观者行为进行模拟分析,以保证活动安全,提升游客体验。研究提出了通过行为模拟支持规划评价、预警及对策的技术框架。利用路径调查与陈述偏好调查获得参观者行为数据并建立模型,进而在多个情景下对个体行游轨迹进行了模拟仿真,分析预测了参观者排队、密度等参数的时空分布情况。在针对不同类型的评价对象提出各自评价指标的基础上,从模拟结果中辨识可能存在的问题,并从规划与管理两方面提出预警及优化对策。研究证明了对大型展会活动开展参观者行为模拟的技术框架的可行性,其结果对本次世园会具有一定的实践指导意义。It is necessary to simulate visitors' behavior in Qingdao International Horticultural Exposition 2014 for security and high-quality visitor experience due to the huge estimated pedestrian volume.This paper proposes a technical framework in purpose of supporting the assessment, early warning as well as countermeasures based on behavior simulation.Visitors' activity data are collected through a route choice survey and the informants' reported preference, based on which the behavior models are estimated.Visitors' trajectories under several scenarios are simulated, together with the spatio-temporal distributions of visitors' density and queuing behaviors.Criteria are proposed to evaluate each simulated object, based on which indexes are set up, used to identify problems that are likely to happen in the real exposition.In the end, the paper proposes early warnings and countermeasures of both planning and administration.The simulation framework is demonstrated to be feasible and valuable for the exposition.国家自然科学基金项目“基于行为分析的商业综合体空间优化方法研究”的部分成